11 research outputs found
Infinite Nested Radicals - A Way to Express All Quantities Rational, Irrational Transcendental By a Single Integer Two
Get PDFThis paper proves that all mathematical quantities including fractions, roots or roots of root, transcendental quantities can be expressed by continued nested radicals using one and only one integer 2. A radical is denoted by a square root sign and nested radicals are progressive roots of radicals. Number of terms in the nested radicals can be finite or infinite. Real mathematical quantity or its reciprocal is first written as cosine of an angle which is expanded using cosine angle doubling identity into nested radicals finite or infinite depending upon the magnitude of quantity. The finite nested radicals has a fixed sequence of positive and negative terms whereas infinite nested radicals also has a sequenceof positive and negative terms but the sequence continues infinitely. How a single integer 2 can express all real quantities, depends upon its recursive relation which is unique for a quantity. Admittedly, there are innumerable mathematical quantities and in the same way, there are innumerable recursive relations distinguished by combination of positive and negative signs under the radicals. This representation of mathematical quantities is not same as representation by binary system where integer two has powers 0, 1, 2, 3…so on but in nested radicals, powers are roots of roots
Characterising acute and chronic care needs: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
No full textChronic care manages long-term, progressive conditions, while acute care addresses short-term conditions. Chronic conditions increasingly strain health systems, which are often unprepared for these demands. This study examines the burden of conditions requiring acute versus chronic care, including sequelae. Conditions and sequelae from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 were classified into acute or chronic care categories. Data were analysed by age, sex, and socio-demographic index, presenting total numbers and contributions to burden metrics such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLD), and Years of Life Lost (YLL). Approximately 68% of DALYs were attributed to chronic care, while 27% were due to acute care. Chronic care needs increased with age, representing 86% of YLDs and 71% of YLLs, and accounting for 93% of YLDs from sequelae. These findings highlight that chronic care needs far exceed acute care needs globally, necessitating health systems to adapt accordingly.
© 2025. The Author(s)
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An investigation into Indian apparel and textile supply chain networks
No full textThe activities of the Indian clothing industry supplying Western markets have been investigated, with particular reference to identifying where improvements could be made to supply chain management. Focus group discussions, case studies and questionnaire analysis established that long lead-times in pre-production areas were of great concern. However Indian apparel manufacturers were found to be more cost conscious and rather less conscious about the value of time in pre-production areas. It was found that pre-production activities constituted 73% of total manufacturing lead time and have high positive correlation (0.96) with total manufacturing lead time. Preproduction activities in India mainly consist of prototype making and pre-production sample development; of which approval processes were found to have a high correlation (0.63) with pre-production. A significant (more than 50%) time of all activities consist of waiting time, which has positive influence on total lead time (0.86)
Global, regional, and national burden of bone fractures in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Get PDFBackground Bone fractures are a global public health issue; however, to date, no comprehensive study of their incidence and burden has been done. We aimed to measure the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of fractures from 1990 to 2019. Methods Using the framework of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we compared numbers and age-standardised rates of global incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of fractures across the 21 GBD regions and 204 countries and territories, by age, sex, and year, from 1990 to 2019. We report estimates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings Globally, in 2019, there were 178 million (95% UI 162-196) new fractures (an increase of 33.4% 30.1-37.0] since 1990), 455 million (428-484) prevalent cases of acute or long-term symptoms of a fracture (an increase of 70.1% 67.5-72.5] since 1990), and 25.8 million (17.8-35.8) YLDs (an increase of 65.3% 62.4-68.0] since 1990). The age-standardised rates of fractures in 2019 were 2296.2 incident cases (2091.1-2529.5) per 100 000 population (a decrease of 9.6% 8.1-11.1] since 1990), 5614.3 prevalent cases (5286.1-5977.5) per 100 000 population (a decrease of 6.7% 5.7-7.6] since 1990), and 319.0 YLDs (220.1-442.5) per 100 000 population (a decrease of 8.4% 7.2-9.5] since 1990). Lower leg fractures of the patella, tibia or fibula, or ankle were the most common and burdensome fracture in 2019, with an age-standardised incidence rate of 419.9 cases (345.8-512.0) per 100 000 population and an age-standardised rate of YLDs of 190.4 (125.0-276.9) per 100 000 population. In 2019, age-specific rates of fracture incidence were highest in the oldest age groups, with, for instance, 15 381.5 incident cases (11 245.3-20 651.9) per 100 000 population in those aged 95 years and older. Interpretation The global age-standardised rates of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for fractures decreased slightly from 1990 to 2019, but the absolute counts increased substantially. Older people have a particularly high risk of fractures, and more widespread injury-prevention efforts and access to screening and treatment of osteoporosis for older individuals should help to reduce the overall burden. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd
Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019
No full textBackground: The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings: In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. Interpretation: The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively. Funding: The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital ( 2022QN38). © 2023 The Author(s
Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
No full textAbstract: Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and induded incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017,1.2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.2 to 1.3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41.5% (95% UI 35.2 to 46.5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2.8%, -1.5 to 6.3). In 2017,697.5 million (95% UI 649.2 to 752.0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9.1% (8.5 to 9.8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29.3% (95% UI 26.4 to 32.6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1.2%, -1.1 to 3.5). CKD resulted in 35.8 million (95% UI 33.7 to 38.0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1.4 million (95% UI 1.2 to 1.6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25.3 million (22.2 to 28.9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Get PDF© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases : findings from the global burden of disease study 2019
Get PDFDATA SHARING STATEMENT : Data used for the analyses are publicly available from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (http://www.healthdata.org/; http:// ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool).BACKGROUND : The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. METHODS : We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. FINDINGS : In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. INTERPRETATION : The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Support from Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital; Shaqra University; the School of Pharmacy, University of Botswana; the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR); an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Investigator Fellowship; the Italian Center of Precision Medicine and Chronic Inflammation in Milan; the Department of Environmental Health Engineering of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran; National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australia; Jazan University, Saudi Arabia; the Clinician Scientist Program of the Clinician Scientist Academy (UMEA) of the University Hospital Essen; AIMST University, Malaysia; the Department of Community Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India; a Kornhauser Research Fellowship at The University of Sydney; the National Research, Development and Innovation Office Hungary; Taipei Medical University; CREATE Hope Scientific Fellowship from Lung Foundation Australia; the National Institute for Health and Care Research Manchester Biomedical Research Centre and an NIHR Clinical Lectureship in Respiratory Medicine; Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore and Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal; Author Gate Publications; the Cleveland Clinic Foundation and Nassau University Medical center; the Italian Ministry of Health (RRC); King Abdulaziz University (DSR), Jeddah, and King Abdulaziz City for Science & Technology (KACSAT), Saudi Arabia, Science & Technology Development Fund (STDF), and US-Egypt Science & Technology joint Fund: The Academy of Scientific Research and Technology (ASRT), Egypt; partially supported by the Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning; the International Center of Medical Sciences Research (ICMSR), Islamabad Pakistan; Ain Shams University and the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program; the Belgian American Educational Foundation; Health Data Research UK; the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Institute of Health Carlos III, CIBERSAM, and INCLIVA; the Clinical Research Development Unit, Imam Reza Hospital, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences; Shaqra University; Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences and SRM Institute of Science and Technology; University of Agriculture, Faisalabad-Pakistan; the Chinese University of Hong Kong Research Committee Postdoctoral Fellowship Scheme; the institutional support of the Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Faculty of Pharmacy, Zagazig University, Egypt; the European (EU) and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, the EU Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, UK-National Institute for Health and Care Research, the Mahathir Science Award Foundation and EU-EDCTP.http://www.thelancet.comam2024School of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH)SDG-03:Good heatlh and well-bein
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Get PDFBackground: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).
Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate.
Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75.2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71.9-78.6) for females and 72.0 years (68.8-75.1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45.6 years [42.0-49.5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41.5 years [39.0-44.0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6.24 years (5.97-6.48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6.04 years (5.74-6.27) for males and 6.49 years (6.08-6.77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1.78 years (1.61-1.93) for males and 1.96 years (1.69-2.13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2.3% [-5.9 to 0.9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16.1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally.
Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support
