27 research outputs found
EFFECTIVENESS OF Sargassum sp EXTRACT IN REDUCE BLOOD SUGAR LEVELS AND ACCELERATE WOUND HEALING ON THE SKIN OF DIABETES MELLITUS MICE (Rattus novergicus)
No full textDiabetes Mellitus is a metabolic disorder characterised by elevated blood sugar levels beyond normal ranges, resulting from reduced secretion of the hormone insulin by pancreatic β cells and/or impaired insulin action. Diabetes therapy is often overseen by regulating blood glucose levels regularly and preventing or reducing the risk of complications. Sargassum sp is a variety of brown seaweed native to Indonesia with possible antioxidant and antidiabetic properties. This study seeks to evaluate the efficacy of Sargassum sp extract in lowering blood sugar levels and speeding up wound healing on the skin of diabetic mice. This is an experimental study that uses mice as experimental subjects. The mice were categorised into 5 groups (K-, K+, P1, P2, and P3). Their initial blood sugar levels were recorded, a skin incision was performed, and STZ was administered. When blood sugar levels rise, the K+ group receives metformin; on the other hand, P1, P2, and P3 are administered Sargassum sp extract at a specified dosage. The data were examined using ANOVA and SPSS. The analysis revealed that the water content of Sargassum sp was 4.32%, and the yield value of the concentrated extract was 8.75%. The ethanol extract of Sargassum sp has been revealed to lower blood sugar levels and speed up the wound healing process in mice with diabetes mellitus. The effects observed include decreased blood sugar levels and enhanced wound healing percentage, which are dose-dependent
The future of small farms for poverty reduction and growth:
No full text"The people operating small farms in developing countries have to cope with the risks of these small businesses and have long faced heavy challenges. Today, these challenges are particularly severe, and the aspirations of young people on small farms have changed. Globalization and the integration of international markets are stimulating intense competition, offering some opportunities but also new risks. In light of these pressures and others, many of the world's millions of small farmers are simply not making it. Indeed, half of the world's undernourished people, three-quarters of Africa's malnourished children, and the majority of people living in absolute poverty live on small farms. The transformation of the small-farm economy is one of the biggest economic challenges of our time. For some, it entails growth into specialized, market-oriented farms; for others, part-time farming combined with off-farm rural jobs; and for others, a move out of agriculture. The pathways of transformation differ by region and location and will take decades. Policy must take a long-run view to support and guide this process efficiently, effectively, and in social fairness. The role of women farmers and their livelihoods requires particular attention. In this paper, Peter Hazell, Colin Poulton, Steve Wiggins, and Andrew Dorward address several crucial questions. Do small farms in fact have a future? In what situations can small farms succeed? What strategies are most appropriate for helping to raise small-farm productivity? The authors review both sides of the debate over the future of small farms before coming to their conclusions. Coming down firmly on the side of policy support for small farms, they point to small farms' significant potential for reducing poverty and inequity. They also clarify the differing roles of and needs for small farms in different country contexts and spell out a policy agenda for promoting small-farm development. This discussion paper is based on a literature review and the deliberations of an international workshop, “The Future of Small Farms,” organized by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 2020 Vision Initiative, the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), and Imperial College London in Wye, England, from June 26 to 29, 2005. (A proceedings volume for this workshop is available from IFPRI, www.ifpri.org/events/seminars/2005/smallfarms/sfproc.asp.) We hope that this discussion paper will help stimulate renewed attention among many stakeholders— including policymakers, researchers, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations—to small-scale agricultural development. Healthy and productive small farms could serve as a crucial mechanism for achieving the poverty and hunger Millennium Development Goals. " From Foreword by Joachim von BraunPro-poor growth, Agriculture, Economic development, small farms, Poverty reduction, Sustainable livelihoods, Non-farm development, Rural-urban linkages, small farms,
Global 30-Day Morbidity and Mortality of Primary Bariatric Surgery Combined With Another Procedure: the Blend Study
No full textBackground: No robust data are available on the safety of primary bariatric and metabolic surgery (BMS) alone compared to primary BMS combined with other procedures. Objectives: The objective of this study is to collect a 30-day mortality and morbidity of primary BMS combined with cholecystectomy, ventral hernia repair, or hiatal hernia repair. Setting: This is as an international, multicenter, prospective, and observational audit of patients undergoing primary BMS combined with one or more additional procedures. Methods: The audit took place from January 1 to June 30, 2022. A descriptive analysis was conducted. A propensity score matching analysis compared the BLEND study patients with those from the GENEVA cohort to obtain objective evaluation between combined procedures and primary BMS alone. Results: A total of 75 centers submitted data on 1036 patients. Sleeve gastrectomy was the most commonly primary BMS (N = 653, 63%), and hiatal hernia repair was the most commonly concomitant procedure (N = 447, 43.1%). RYGB accounted for the highest percentage (20.6%) of a 30-day morbidity, followed by SG (10.5%). More than one combined procedures had the highest morbidities among all combinations (17.1%). Out of overall 134 complications, 129 (96.2%) were Clavien-Dindo I–III, and 4 were CD V. Patients who underwent a primary bariatric surgery combined with another procedure had a pronounced increase in a 30-day complication rate compared with patients who underwent only BMS (12.7% vs. 7.1%). Conclusion: Combining BMS with another procedure increases the risk of complications, but most are minor and require no further treatment. Combined procedures with primary BMS is a viable option to consider in selected patients following multi-disciplinary discussion. Graphical Abstract: (Figure presented.) © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2024.Hamoud Subhi Zahi Al-issawi Hamza Al-Naggar Hamzeh Ibrahim Al-Qazakzeh Manar Al-Shami Omer Al-Taan Nadeem Bilal Alabdallah Nigar Allahverdiyeva Aiman Nuri Allawgalli Marwa Aloulou Bourhan Mohammad Hassan Alrayes Entisar Ahmed Alshareea Ahmad Malek Alsheikh Patrícia F.N. Amaral Ahmed Y Ammar Luciano Antozzi Ahmad Yamen Arnaout Jabra Arraf Aiman Assaf Ali Awad Sajeda Awadi; Leon Ballesteros Jonathan Abraham Demma Angel Diaz Agron Dogjani Anne Sophie Dulac Agustin Duro Mohamad Hayssam ElFawal; Mahafdah Ahmed Salah Mahdi Ravikrishna Mamidanna Gad Amram Marom Ruqaya Masri Jean Claude Mbonicura Adnan Mohammed Vasilios Mousafeiris Norberto Muñoz Montes Celso Nabais Mohannad Nasani Pueya Abdulrashid Nashidengo Ionut Negoi Negoi Aleksandr Neimark Mourad Niazi Abdallah Omari Mouaqit Ouadii Mehmet Faik Özçelik Mahir Ozmen Mykola Paranyak Chetan Parmar Giovanna Pavone Plamen Petkov Tadeja Pintar Yashasvi Rajeev Gopi Ramu Fahd S Saleh Prashant H Salvi Cláudia S.F. Santos Varun Sarodaya Mohammad Ahmad Sawaftah Marah Ahmad Sawaftah Mohamad Nabhan Sawas Asim Shabbir Azhar Shabbir Aamir Shahzad; Kimutai Ronoh Sylvester Safwan Taha Samuel Tay Pinky M Thapar Anisse Tidjane Carlos T. Toro-Huamanchumo Elena Ruiz Úcar Muhammad Burhan Ulhaq Server Sezgin Uludağ Octavio Viveiros Kelvin Voon Maciej Walędziak Haowei Wang Cacio Ricardo Wietzycoski Bryan Yeoh Sercan Yüksel Hussein Zayat Kağan Zengin Mauricio Zuluaga Homayoon Federico Pint
Author Correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
No full textTheological controversy in the seventh century concerning activities and wills in Christ
No full textThe primary purpose of the thesis is to fill the existing gaps in our understanding of various theological and political aspects of the controversy that took place in both Eastern and Western parts of the Roman Empire in the seventh century, the main theological point of which was wether Christ had one or two energeiai and wills. Before coming to any conclusions on this subject, I shall investigate the preliminary forms of Monenergism and Monothelitism i.e., belief in a single energeia and will of Christ, which were incorporated in the major Christological systems developed by Apollinarius of Laodicea, Theodore of Mopsuestia, and Severus of Antioch (chapters 1-3).Against this background, it becomes obvious that the Chalcedonian Monenergism and later Monothelitism emerged from the movement of neo- Chalcedonianism. It was an attempt by the political and ecclesiastical authorities to achieve a theological compromise with various non-Chalcedonian groups, mainly Severian, but also 'Nestorian'. Their ultimate goal was to reconcile these groups with the Catholic Church of the Empire (chapter 4). However, this project of reconciliation on the basis of the single-energeia formula was contested by the representatives of the same neo-Chalcedonian tradition and consequently condemned at the Councils of Lateran (649) and Constantinople (680/681). Thus, the same neo-Chalcedonian tradition produced two self-sufficient and antagonistic doctrines. A major concern of the thesis is to expose and compare systematically their doctrinal content per se and in the wider context of the principles of neo-Chalcedonianism (chapter 5)
Effects of rare kidney diseases on kidney failure: a longitudinal analysis of the UK National Registry of Rare Kidney Diseases (RaDaR) cohort
No full text\ua9 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Individuals with rare kidney diseases account for 5–10% of people with chronic kidney disease, but constitute more than 25% of patients receiving kidney replacement therapy. The National Registry of Rare Kidney Diseases (RaDaR) gathers longitudinal data from patients with these conditions, which we used to study disease progression and outcomes of death and kidney failure. Methods: People aged 0–96 years living with 28 types of rare kidney diseases were recruited from 108 UK renal care facilities. The primary outcomes were cumulative incidence of mortality and kidney failure in individuals with rare kidney diseases, which were calculated and compared with that of unselected patients with chronic kidney disease. Cumulative incidence and Kaplan–Meier survival estimates were calculated for the following outcomes: median age at kidney failure; median age at death; time from start of dialysis to death; and time from diagnosis to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) thresholds, allowing calculation of time from last eGFR of 75 mL/min per 1\ub773 m2 or more to first eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1\ub773 m2 (the therapeutic trial window). Findings: Between Jan 18, 2010, and July 25, 2022, 27 285 participants were recruited to RaDaR. Median follow-up time from diagnosis was 9\ub76 years (IQR 5\ub79–16\ub77). RaDaR participants had significantly higher 5-year cumulative incidence of kidney failure than 2\ub781 million UK patients with all-cause chronic kidney disease (28% vs 1%; p<0\ub70001), but better survival rates (standardised mortality ratio 0\ub742 [95% CI 0\ub732–0\ub752]; p<0\ub70001). Median age at kidney failure, median age at death, time from start of dialysis to death, time from diagnosis to eGFR thresholds, and therapeutic trial window all varied substantially between rare diseases. Interpretation: Patients with rare kidney diseases differ from the general population of individuals with chronic kidney disease: they have higher 5-year rates of kidney failure but higher survival than other patients with chronic kidney disease stages 3–5, and so are over-represented in the cohort of patients requiring kidney replacement therapy. Addressing unmet therapeutic need for patients with rare kidney diseases could have a large beneficial effect on long-term kidney replacement therapy demand. Funding: RaDaR is funded by the Medical Research Council, Kidney Research UK, Kidney Care UK, and the Polycystic Kidney Disease Charity
Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
No full textBACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.Funding: We thank the countless individuals who have contributed to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015 in various capacities. We specifically thank Jeffrey Eaton and John Stover. HW and CJLM received funding for this study from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; the National Institute of Mental Health, National Institutes of Health (NIH; R01MH110163); and the National Institute on Aging, NIH (P30AG047845). LJAR acknowledges the support of Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP 04-924-3-251) who provided the main funding for generating the data provided to the GBD-Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation effort. BPAQ acknowledges institutional support from PRONABEC (National Program of Scholarship and Educational Loan), provided by the Peruvian government. DB is supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number OPP1068048). JDN was supported in his contribution to this work by a Fellowship from Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, Portugal (SFRH/BPD/92934/2013). KD is supported by a Wellcome Trust Fellowship in Public Health and Tropical Medicine (grant number 099876). TF received financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF; project number P300P3-154634). AG acknowledges funding from Sistema Nacional de Investigadores de Panama-SNI. PJ is supported by Wellcome Trust-DBT India Alliance Clinical and Public Health Intermediate Fellowship. MK receives research support from the Academy of Finland, the Swedish Research Council, Alzheimerfonden, Alzheimer's Research & Prevention Foundation, Center for Innovative Medicine (CIMED) at Karolinska Institutet South Campus, AXA Research Fund, Wallenberg Clinical Scholars Award from the Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Foundation, and the Sheika Salama Bint Hamdan Al Nahyan Foundation. AK's work was supported by the Miguel Servet contract financed by the CP13/00150 and PI15/00862 projects, integrated into the National R&D&I and funded by the ISCIII (General Branch Evaluation and Promotion of Health Research), and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF-FEDER). SML is funded by a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinician Scientist Fellowship (grant number NIHR/CS/010/014). HJL reports grants from the NIHR, EU Innovative Medicines Initiative, Centre for Strategic & International Studies, and WHO. WM is Program analyst, Population and Development, in the Peru Country Office of the United Nations Population Fund, which does not necessarily endorse this study. For UOM, funding from the German National Cohort Consortium (O1ER1511D) is gratefully acknowledged. KR reports grants from NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Career Development Fellowship, and Oxford Martin School during the conduct of the study. GR acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on the behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group supported by the International Society of Nephrology (ISN). ISS reports grants from FAPESP (Brazilian public agency). RSS receives institutional support from Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales, UDCA, Bogota Colombia. SS receives postdoctoral funding from the Fonds de la recherche en sante du Quebec (FRSQ), including its renewal. RTS was supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI14/00894 from ISCIII-FEDER. PY acknowledges support from Strategic Public Policy Research (HKU7003-SPPR-12).</p
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017
No full textBackground Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1.95 million deaths (95 uncertainty interval 1.87-2.04) and has since decreased to 0.95 million deaths (0.91-1.01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3.16 million, 2.79-3.67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1.94 million (1.63-2.29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36.8 million (34.8-39.2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65.7 in Lesotho to 85.7 in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81 ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90 ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd
Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
No full textBackground Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.
Methods We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).
Findings In 2019 there were 1.49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1.39-1.59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32.7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32.1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27.0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8.2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30.0% in females and 15.3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1.3% in males and 1.6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2.4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2.5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9.5% to 21.6%.
Interpretation Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under‐5 mortality during 1980‐2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
No full textBackground
Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time.
Methods
Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1–4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980–2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age–sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).
Findings
Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7–6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7–53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3–43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6–2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1–57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6–3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone
