10 research outputs found
EGC: Sparse covariance estimation in logit mixture models
No full textThis paper introduces a new data-driven methodology for estimating sparse covariance matrices of the random coefficients in logit mixture models. Researchers typically specify covariance matrices in logit mixture models under one of two extreme assumptions: either an unrestricted full covariance matrix (allowing correlations between all random coefficients), or a restricted diagonal matrix (allowing no correlations at all). Our objective is to find optimal subsets of correlated coefficients for which we estimate covariances. We propose a new estimator, called MISC (mixed integer sparse covariance), that uses a mixed-integer optimization (MIO) program to find an optimal block diagonal structure specification for the covariance matrix, corresponding to subsets of correlated coefficients, for any desired sparsity level using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) posterior draws from the unrestricted full covariance matrix. The optimal sparsity level of the covariance matrix is determined using out-of-sample validation. We demonstrate the ability of MISC to correctly recover the true covariance structure from synthetic data. In an empirical illustration using a stated preference survey on modes of transportation, we use MISC to obtain a sparse covariance matrix indicating how preferences for attributes are related to one another
Evaluating the systemic effects of automated mobility-on-demand services via large-scale agent-based simulation of auto-dependent prototype cities
No full textThe growing demand for urban mobility highlights the need for relevant and sustainable solutions in cities worldwide. Thus, we develop and implement a framework to analyze the systemic impacts of future urban mobility trends and policies. We build on prior work in classifying the world’s cities into 12 urban typologies that represent distinct land-use and behavioral characteristics by introducing a generalized approach for creating a detailed, simulatable prototype city that is representative of a given typology. We then generate and simulate two auto-dependent (largely US-specific) prototype cities via a state-of-the-art agent-based platform, SimMobility, for integrated demand microsimulation and supply mesoscopic simulation. We demonstrate the framework by analyzing the impacts of automated mobility on-demand (AMoD) implementation strategies in the cities based on demand, congestion, energy consumption and emissions outcomes. Our results show that the introduction of AMoD cannibalizes mass transit while increasing vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) and congestion. In sprawling auto-dependent cities with low transit penetration, the congestion and energy consumption effects under best-case assumptions are similar regardless of whether AMoD competes with or complements mass transit. In dense auto-dependent cities with moderate transit modeshare, the integration of AMoD with transit yields better outcomes in terms of VKT and congestion. Such cities cannot afford to disinvest in mass transit, as this would result in unsustainable outcomes. Overall, this framework can provide insights into how AMoD can be sustainably harnessed not only in low-density and high-density auto-dependent cities, but also in other typologies
First measurements of energetic protons in Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak Upgrade (MAST-U).
Get PDFFirst proton production rates from the d(d,p)t reaction in the Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak Upgrade (MAST-U) are measured. The data were taken during the MAST-U experimental campaign with an upgraded version of the proton detector (PD) previously used in MAST. The new detector array consists of three collimated silicon surface barrier detectors with a depletion depth of 300 μm and a collimated 120 μm thick diamond detector, mounted on the MAST-U reciprocating probe arm. This array measures the energies of unconfined energetic 3 MeV protons and 1 MeV tritons mainly produced by beam-thermal DD reactions during neutral beam injection heating. Diamond detectors have the potential to be uniquely suited to detect charged fusion products as they promise to be much more radiation resistant and much less sensitive to temperature variations compared to silicon-based detectors. Using silicon and diamond-based detectors simultaneously allowed us to directly compare the performance of these two detector types. PD particle rates measured during different plasma scenarios are presented and compared to neutron rates measured using the neutron camera upgrade and TRANSP predictions. [Abstract copyright: © 2024 Author(s). Published under an exclusive license by AIP Publishing.
A novel global urban typology framework for sustainable mobility futures
No full textUrban mobility signficantly contributes to global carbon dioxide emissions. Given the rapid expansion and growth in urban areas, cities thus require innovative policies to ensure efficient and sustainable mobility. Urban typologies can serve as a vehicle for understanding dynamics of cities, which exhibit high variability in form, economic output, mobility behavior, among others. Yet, typologies relevant for sustainable urban mobility analyses are few, outdated and not large enough in scope. In this paper, we present a new typologization spanning 331 cities in 124 countries. Our sample represents 40\% of the global urban population and contains the most recent data from 2010 to date. Using a factor analytic and agglomerative clustering approach, we identify 9 urban factors and 12 typologies. We discuss the implications of this new framework for researchers and planners and investigate the relationships between mobility and environmental sustainability indicators. Notably, we show an immediate application of the urban typologies to better understanding travel behavior and also describe their usage for detailed large-scale simulation in representative prototype cities for insights into sustainable future mobility policy pathways. Our data and results are publicly available for further exploration and will serve as a foundation for future analyses toward desirable urban and environmental outcomes
Overview of physics results from MAST upgrade towards core-pedestal-exhaust integration
No full text© 2024 Crown copyright, UK Atomic Energy Authority & The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd on behalf of the IAEA. All rights reserved. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence...Recent results from MAST Upgrade are presented, emphasising understanding the capabilities of this new device and deepening understanding of key physics issues for the operation of ITER and the design of future fusion power plants. The impact of MHD instabilities on fast ion confinement have been studied, including the first observation of fast ion losses correlated with Compressional and Global Alfvén Eigenmodes. High-performance plasma scenarios have been developed by tailoring the early plasma current ramp phase to avoid internal reconnection events, resulting in a more monotonic q profile with low central shear. The impact of m/n = 3/2, 2/1 and 1/1 modes on thermal plasma confinement and rotation profiles has been quantified, and scenarios optimised to avoid them have transiently reached values of normalised beta approaching 4.2. In pedestal and ELM physics, a maximum pedestal top temperature of ∼350 eV has been achieved, exceeding the value achieved on MAST at similar heating power. Mitigation of type-I ELMs with n = 1 RMPs has been observed. Studies of plasma exhaust have concentrated on comparing conventional and Super-X divertor configurations, while X-point target, X-divertor and snowflake configurations have been developed and studied in parallel. In L-mode discharges, the separatrix density required to detach the outer divertors is approximately a factor 2 lower in the Super-X than the conventional configuration, in agreement with simulations. Detailed analysis of spectroscopy data from studies of the Super-X configuration reveal the importance of including plasma-molecule interactions and D2 Fulcher band emission to properly quantify the rates of ionisation, plasma-molecule interactions and volumetric recombination processes governing divertor detachment. In H-mode with conventional and Super-X configurations, the outer divertors are attached in the former and detached in the latter with no impact on core or pedestal confinement
Overview of physics results from MAST upgrade towards core-pedestal-exhaust integration
No full textPublisher Copyright: © 2024 Crown copyright, UK Atomic Energy Authority & The Author(s).Recent results from MAST Upgrade are presented, emphasising understanding the capabilities of this new device and deepening understanding of key physics issues for the operation of ITER and the design of future fusion power plants. The impact of MHD instabilities on fast ion confinement have been studied, including the first observation of fast ion losses correlated with Compressional and Global Alfvén Eigenmodes. High-performance plasma scenarios have been developed by tailoring the early plasma current ramp phase to avoid internal reconnection events, resulting in a more monotonic q profile with low central shear. The impact of m/n = 3/2, 2/1 and 1/1 modes on thermal plasma confinement and rotation profiles has been quantified, and scenarios optimised to avoid them have transiently reached values of normalised beta approaching 4.2. In pedestal and ELM physics, a maximum pedestal top temperature of ∼350 eV has been achieved, exceeding the value achieved on MAST at similar heating power. Mitigation of type-I ELMs with n = 1 RMPs has been observed. Studies of plasma exhaust have concentrated on comparing conventional and Super-X divertor configurations, while X-point target, X-divertor and snowflake configurations have been developed and studied in parallel. In L-mode discharges, the separatrix density required to detach the outer divertors is approximately a factor 2 lower in the Super-X than the conventional configuration, in agreement with simulations. Detailed analysis of spectroscopy data from studies of the Super-X configuration reveal the importance of including plasma-molecule interactions and D2 Fulcher band emission to properly quantify the rates of ionisation, plasma-molecule interactions and volumetric recombination processes governing divertor detachment. In H-mode with conventional and Super-X configurations, the outer divertors are attached in the former and detached in the latter with no impact on core or pedestal confinement.Peer reviewe
SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study
No full textBackground: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.
Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.
Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.
Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population
