985 research outputs found
Dealing with uncertainty in ecosystem models along three axes; resolution, forcing and projections
No full textWith the imminent threat of climate change, there is an urgent need to understand how warmer temperatures will affect marine ecosystems. Models provide the best tools to study the future, but although great efforts have been made to understand the impacts of warming temperatures, there is still large uncertainties related to the model projections. The uncertainties can arise from structural uncertainty of the ecosystem model, uncertainties regarding climate projections, or uncertainties related to how species will respond to future climate changes. In this thesis, we therefore apply ecosystem models of varying complexity, climate models of varying resolution and climate projections under various emission scenarios to understand and quantify uncertainty. By assessing the uncertainty, we highlight consistent results that suggest higher confidence, and areas where differences in the results suggest that more research is needed. The results from this thesis are divided into three research papers.
The first paper deals with structural uncertainty regarding model complexity, as we explore the role of Northeast Atlantic cod (Gadus Morhua) in the Barents Sea food web by using a multi-model approach. We apply two ecosystem models of different complexity; the minimalistic Gompertz model and the highly complex Atlantis model, to study how capelin and polar cod respond to changing levels of cod. We highlight consistent results across the models and identify diverging results due to differences in spatial structure and number of foodweb components, and conclude that for fishery management purposes, the two models can complement each other.
The second paper deals with uncertainty regarding the resolution of climate projections used to force ecosystem models, where we apply physics (temperature, salinity, volume transport and sea ice) from a regional model (Nemo-NAA10km) and its driving global climate model (NorESM2) to the Nordic and Barents Seas Atlantis ecosystem model (NoBa). We found that few higher trophic level (TL>3) species were affected by using forcing from a global versus a regional model, and there was a general agreement in future biomass trends and distribution patterns. Yet, our results showed how a slight difference in temperature can have dramatic consequences for specific species and demonstrate that species projection uncertainty could arise from poor representation of the physical forcing, as well as due to uncertainty in the ecosystem model parameterization.
In the third and final paper, we deal with the uncertainty regarding ecosystem responses to future climate changes. We apply physics from three different climate projections (SPP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) to study the impact of rising temperatures in the Nordic and Barents Seas using NoBa. To account for uncertainty in the response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to future climate change, we included variation in phyto- and zooplankton growth levels. We identify potential winners and losers in a warming climate and focus on the underlying mechanisms that drives the changes in the model, including spatial differences, thermal tolerance, and species interactions.
Through our work we have demonstrated the value of using ecosystem models of varying complexity, climate models of varying resolution and climate projections under various emission scenarios to quantify uncertainty regarding model projections. By investigating uncertainty along these three axes, we learn more about the models and the mechanisms that drives the changes and provide valuable insight for management and future ecosystem studies.Med klimaendringer som en overhengende trussel, er det et stort og økende behov for å forstå hvordan varmere temperaturer vil påvirke marine økosystemer. Modeller er et av de viktigste verktøyene for å studere hvordan utviklingen vil bli, men selv om stor innsats har blitt lagt ned for å forstå konsekvenser av varmere temperaturer, er det fortsatt stor usikkerhet knyttet til modell-projeksjonene. Usikkerheten kan skyldes strukturell usikkerhet i økosystemmodellene, usikkerhet knyttet til klimaprognoser eller usikkerhet knyttet til hvordan ulike arter vil reagere på fremtidige klimaendringer. I denne oppgaven bruker vi derfor økosystemmodeller med varierende kompleksitet, klimamodeller med varierende oppløsning og ulike klimascenarier for å belyse denne usikkerheten. På den måten kan vi rapportere resultater som samsvarer med høyere pålitelighet, og påpeke forskjeller i resultatene som tilsier at det vil være behov for mer forskning. Resultatene fra denne avhandlingen er delt inn i tre forskningsartikler.
Den første artikkelen omhandler strukturell usikkerhet knyttet til modellkompleksitet. Ved å benytte to modeller av ulik kompleksitet (den minimalistiske Gompertz-modellen og den svært komplekse Atlantis-modellen) gransker vi rollen til nordøstatlantisk torsk (Gadus Morhua) i Barentshavet ved å studere hvordan lodde og polartorsk reagerer på endrede nivåer av torsk. Vi synliggjør samsvarende resultater på tvers av modellene og identifiserer divergerende resultater som oppstår på grunn av forskjeller i romlig struktur og antall økosystem-komponenter. Konklusjonene våre er at fiskeriforvaltningen kan dra nytte av å bruke flere modeller, og at de to modellene utfyller hverandre.
Den andre artikkelen omhandler usikkerhet rundt oppløsningen av klimamodellene, og i hvilken grad høy oppløsning av fysikken er nødvendig for å studere effekter i økosystemmodeller. Her bruker vi fysikk (temperatur, saltholdighet, volumtransport og havis) fra en regional modell (Nemo-NAA10km) og dens drivende globale klimamodell (NorESM2) i en Atlantis modell (NoBa) for de Nordiske hav og Barentshavet. Resultatene viste at få arter på høyere trofisk nivå (TL>3) ble påvirket av å bruke fysikk fra en global versus en regional modell, og at det var en generell enighet om fremtidige biomassetrender og distribusjonsmønstre. Likevel så vi hvordan selv små temperaturforskjeller kan ha dramatiske konsekvenser for enkelte arter, og hvordan slike forskjeller kan oppstå både med utgangspunkt i usikkerhet rundt fysikken, samt usikkerheter i hvordan modellen representerer artenes temperaturtoleranse.
I det tredje og siste artikkelen studerer vi usikkerheten knyttet til påvirkning av fremtidige klimaendringer på økosystemet i de Nordiske hav og i Barentshavet. Ved å anvende av tre ulike klimascenarier (SPP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 og SSP5-8.5) studerer vi hvordan økende temperaturer vil påvirke artene i NoBa-modellen. For å ta høyde for usikkerhet i fremtidige nivåer av plante- og dyreplankton, inkluderte vi variasjon i disse gruppene. Fokus i studien ligger på de underliggende mekanismene som driver endringene i modellen, og vi identifiserer potensielle vinnere og tapere i et varmere klima.
I denne avhandlingen fremhever vi verdien av å bruke økosystemmodeller av varierende kompleksitet, klimamodeller med varierende oppløsning og ulike utslippsscenarier for å håndtere usikkerhet i modellene våre. Ved å undersøke usikkerhet langs disse tre aksene lærer vi mer om modellene og mekanismene som driver endringene, samt gir verdifull innsikt for forvaltning og fremtidige økosystemstudier
The birth and early years of INA, the International Neurotoxicology Association
No full textAbstractThe International Neurotoxicology Association (INA) is a scientific society whose members have interest and expertise in the discipline of neurotoxicology. The idea of forming INA was born in 1984, as a follow-up to a NATO-sponsored meeting on Toxicology of the Nervous System. INA held its first meeting in the Netherlands in 1987 and has had continuous meetings every other year since then. INA is registered as a scientific society in the Netherlands, and is an affiliated society of IUTOX. This paper presents a personal account of the events that led to the birth of INA, and of the first fifteen years of this association
Koło się zamyka
No full textIna Söllner was one of Schulz’s young sitters. As an adult person, she discovered in her autograph book a portrait of her mother, Ina, made by Schulz. The drawing called The King of Frogs [Żabi król] and a dedication referring to her mother sitting provoke the author to analyze her family connections with Schulz. Even though she does not remember her meeting with the artist, she reconstructs Schulz’s place in her biography and the circumstances under which they might have met
Pioneering Doktormutter Remembering Ina-Maria Greverus
No full textThe author reconsiders German scholar Ina-Maria Greverus as a committed feminist supporter of female doctoral students and early career academics. Greverus acted as an innovator especially in the realms of anthropology and aesthetics, and initiated a new international dialogue forum with the Anthropological Journal or European Cultures, which she founded in 1990 together with Christian Giordano.</p
The Circle Closes
No full textIna Söllner was one of Schulz’s young sitters. As an adult person, she discovered in her autograph book a portrait of her mother, Ina, made by Schulz. The drawing called The King of Frogs [Żabi król] and a dedication referring to her mother sitting provoke the author to analyze her family connections with Schulz. Even though she does not remember her meeting with the artist, she reconstructs Schulz’s place in her biography and the circumstances under which they might have met
Chronicles of Oklahoma
No full textArticle discusses the life of the author and her family after homesteading in Logan County, Oklahoma Territory. Ina Robinson discusses the difficulties faced on the frontier, the people they encountered there, education available, and social life
La Cañada Drive, River Road to Ina Road
No full texttableOfContents: The Pima County Department of Transportation proposes to widen approximately 2.7 miles of La Cañada Drive from a two-lane arterial road into a four-lane arterial road between River Road and Ina Road. The project also includes the installation of a closed stormwater collection and conveyance system, installation of culverts to create an all-weather roadway, and addition of curbs, sidewalks, bike lanes, and a public use trail
Ina M. McCausland Correspondence
No full textEntry is a letter from the Maine State Library in receipt of a book for the Maine Author Collection
PRIVATIZACIJA INA-e; UZROCI, MODEL, POSLJEDICE : Diplomski rad
No full textU Republici Hrvatskoj 90-ih godina prošlog stoljeća provođeni su procesi pretvorbe i privatizacije. Hrvatski privatizacijski model bio je osmišljen na način da se sastojao od dvije etape; pretvorbene i privatizacijske. Postupak pretvorbe društvenog vlasništva započeo je 23. travnja 1991. donošenjem Zakona o pretvorbi društvenih poduzeća. Pretvorbenu etapu obilježavaju dva paralelna tijeka; formalnopravni tijek i financijski tijek pretvorbe. Druga etapa privatizacijskog procesa je privatizacijska etapa koja se dijeli na: privatizaciju portfelja u posjedu Hrvatskog fonda za privatizaciju (HFP), unutar koje imamo kuponsku privatizaciju i na privatizaciju koja se odvija izvan HFP (privatizacija javnih poduzeća i privatizacija bankarske industrije). Proces privatizacije započeo je zapravo već donošenjem Zakona o Hrvatskom fondu za privatizaciju (HFP), a sam HFP je osnovan 1.svibnja 1993.g. Privatizaciju javnih poduzeća provodi Ministarstvo gospodarstva javnom dražbom ili izravnim pregovorima s potencijalnim kupcima. U procesu privatizacije javnih poduzeća krenulo se na privatizaciju INA-e.
Od 1990. INA je poduzeće u državnom vlasništvu, a od 1993. dioničko društvo. Prva faza privatizacije, u kojoj kupnjom 25 posto plus jedne dionice Inin strateški partner postaje MOL, završena je 2003. godine. U 2006. godini INA je ušla u sljedeću fazu privatizacije kada je Vlada RH pustila u prodaju 1.700.000 njenih redovnih dionica. U siječnju 2009. godine MOL i Vlada Republike Hrvatske potpisali su Dodatak dioničarskom ugovoru. Sukladno tim ugovorima INA, d.d. izlazi iz zakonski uređenog dijela plinskog poslovanja. Činjenice da je osnovano Istražno povjerenstvo za privatizaciju Ina-e, da je bivši premijer Sanader uhićen i suđen za primanje mita od MOL-a, da je RH podnijela arbitražnu tužbu protiv MOL-a, a i podatak studije američke konzultantske tvrtke AT&Karney te Oil & Gas Consultinga koja je pokazala da je MOL nakon preuzimanja Ine hrvatsku stranu nepridržavanjem dogovora oštetio za 6,2 milijarde dolara upućuju na nedostatak strategije o hrvatskoj energetskoj budućnosti, već upravo suprotno pokazuju kako se u privatizaciju Ina-e ušlo bez strategije i sa samo jednim ciljem, a to je zadovoljiti vlastite i političke interese. Želja autorice je da se iz pogreške koja je nastala u privatizaciji INA-e, nauči nešto za privatizacije koje tek dolaze, kako se takve greške ne bi ponovile. INA je jedna od tvrtki koji su nositelji hrvatskog gospodarstva, nažalost mi se prema njoj nismo tako odnosili. Pitanje je što je RH mogla dobiti da je INA ostala u njenom većinskom vlasništvu. To su sad samo nagađanja. Financijski rezultati INA-e zadnjih godina su pozitivni, pokazatelji za 2015. i prvi kvartal 2016. pokazuju da posluje s gubitkom, što i kako će biti dalje pokazati će vrijeme koje je pred nama.In Croatia, the 90’s of last century were implemented processes of transformation and privatization. Croatian privatization model was designed in such a way that it consisted of two stages; transformation and privatization. The process of transformation of social ownership began on April 23, 1991. Transformation stage is marked by two parallel flow; formal legal flows and financial flows transformation. The second stage of the privatization process of was privatization stage, which is divided into the privatization portfolio held by the Croatian Privatization Fund (HFP), within which we have the coupon privatization and the privatization that takes place outside of the HFP (privatization of public enterprises and privatization of the banking industry). The privatization process started in May 1, 1993. In the process of privatization of public enterprises moved on to the privatization of INA.
Since 1990, INA is a company owned by the state and since 1993 a joint stock company. The first stage of privatization, in which the purchase of 25 percent plus one share of INA's strategic partner MOL station, completed in 2003. In 2006 INA went into the next stage of privatization when the Government has launched the sale of 1,700,000 of its common shares. In January 2009 MOL and the Croatian government signed the Amendment to the Shareholders Agreement. Pursuant to these agreements, INA, d.d exits from the regulated part of the gas business. The fact that the established inquiry commission for the privatization of INA that former Prime Minister Ivo Sanader was arrested and tried for accepting bribes from MOL that the Republic of Croatia filed an arbitration claim against MOL, and information studies of US consulting firm AT & Karney and Oil & gas Consulting which showed that MOL following the takeover of INA Croatian side of non-compliance with the agreement damaged for $ 6.2 billion refer to the lack of strategy on Croatia's energy future, but on the contrary show that the privatization of INA is entered without a strategy and with only one goal and that is to meet their own and political interests. The desire of the author is that of errors that occurred in the privatization of INA, learn something privatization yet to come, that such mistakes would not happen again. INA is one of the companies which are the carriers of the Croatian economy, unfortunately we didn´t treated her on that way. The question is what is the Republic of Croatia could get to the INA remained in its majority property. They are now just speculation. Financial results of INA´s last year are positive. Indicators for 2015 and the first quarter of 2016 indicate that operates at a loss, and the time will show what happens next
Zkoumání vlastností kalorimetru pro experiment ATLAS v CERN
No full textNazev prace: Zkoumani vlastnosti kaJorimetru pro experiment ATLAS v GERNAutor: Ina Chalnpkova Katedra (ustav); Ustav casticove ajaderne fyziky Vedouci bakalafske prace: RNDr. Tomas Davidek, Ph.D. e-mail vcdoucilio: [email protected] Abstrakt: V praci je strncne popsan detektor ATLAS v CER.Nu a jeden z jehosubdetektoru-kalorimetr TileCal. Po uvedem do problematiky kaJoriinetrie je vysvetlen rozvoj sprsek a problem nokompenzovatelno.sti hadronoveho kalorimetru, ktcry souvi.si s podi'lom eloktro- magneticke a hadronovc komponenty rozvoje. Je definovana linearita a energeticke rozsi'renf jako dva z jeho zakladm'ch paramctru. V poslcdrii caati jsou (yto paramctry pomoci progxamu ROOT vyhodnoccne ze simuJaci ijiterakce nabitych pionu s kalorimentrem a porovnane s dosavadnimiexperimentalm'mi zavery. Klicova slova: ATLAS, kalorimetr, TileCal, energeticke rozlisenf, nekompenzova-telnost Title: Study of the calorimeter for ATLAS experiment at CERN Author: Ina Chalupkova Department: Institute of Particle and Nuclear Physics Supervisor: RNDr. Tomas Davzdek, Ph.D. Supervisor's e-mail addresy; [email protected] Abstract: This thesis in its first part briefly explains the CRR.N ATLAS detector and one of its sub-detectors - calorimeter TileCal. After introducing to the calorimetry problematics, are the...Nazev prace: Zkoumani vlastnosti kaJorimetru pro experiment ATLAS v GERNAutor: Ina Chalnpkova Katedra (ustav); Ustav casticove ajaderne fyziky Vedouci bakalafske prace: RNDr. Tomas Davidek, Ph.D. e-mail vcdoucilio: [email protected] Abstrakt: V praci je strncne popsan detektor ATLAS v CER.Nu a jeden z jehosubdetektoru-kalorimetr TileCal. Po uvedem do problematiky kaJoriinetrie je vysvetlen rozvoj sprsek a problem nokompenzovatelno.sti hadronoveho kalorimetru, ktcry souvi.si s podi'lom eloktro- magneticke a hadronovc komponenty rozvoje. Je definovana linearita a energeticke rozsi'renf jako dva z jeho zakladm'ch paramctru. V poslcdrii caati jsou (yto paramctry pomoci progxamu ROOT vyhodnoccne ze simuJaci ijiterakce nabitych pionu s kalorimentrem a porovnane s dosavadnimiexperimentalm'mi zavery. Klicova slova: ATLAS, kalorimetr, TileCal, energeticke rozlisenf, nekompenzova-telnost Title: Study of the calorimeter for ATLAS experiment at CERN Author: Ina Chalupkova Department: Institute of Particle and Nuclear Physics Supervisor: RNDr. Tomas Davzdek, Ph.D. Supervisor's e-mail addresy; [email protected] Abstract: This thesis in its first part briefly explains the CRR.N ATLAS detector and one of its sub-detectors - calorimeter TileCal. After introducing to the calorimetry problematics, are the...Ústav částicové a jaderné fyzikyInstitute of Particle and Nuclear PhysicsFaculty of Mathematics and PhysicsMatematicko-fyzikální fakult
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