42 research outputs found
EpiLPS: A fast and flexible Bayesian tool for estimation of the time-varying reproduction number
No full textIn infectious disease epidemiology, the instantaneous reproduction number [Formula: see text] is a time-varying parameter defined as the average number of secondary infections generated by an infected individual at time t. It is therefore a crucial epidemiological statistic that assists public health decision makers in the management of an epidemic. We present a new Bayesian tool (EpiLPS) for robust estimation of the time-varying reproduction number. The proposed methodology smooths the epidemic curve and allows to obtain (approximate) point estimates and credible intervals of [Formula: see text] by employing the renewal equation, using Bayesian P-splines coupled with Laplace approximations of the conditional posterior of the spline vector. Two alternative approaches for inference are presented: (1) an approach based on a maximum a posteriori argument for the model hyperparameters, delivering estimates of [Formula: see text] in only a few seconds; and (2) an approach based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme with underlying Langevin dynamics for efficient sampling of the posterior target distribution. Case counts per unit of time are assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution to account for potential overdispersion in the data that would not be captured by a classic Poisson model. Furthermore, after smoothing the epidemic curve, a "plug-in'' estimate of the reproduction number can be obtained from the renewal equation yielding a closed form expression of [Formula: see text] as a function of the spline parameters. The approach is extremely fast and free of arbitrary smoothing assumptions. EpiLPS is applied on data of SARS-CoV-1 in Hong-Kong (2003), influenza A H1N1 (2009) in the USA and on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (2020-2021) for Belgium, Portugal, Denmark and France. Author summary The instantaneous reproduction number R-t is a key statistic that provides important insights into an epidemic outbreak as it informs about the average number of secondary infections engendered by an infectious agent. We present a flexible Bayesian approach called EpiLPS (Epidemiological modeling with Laplacian-P-Splines) for efficient estimation of the epidemic curve and Rt based on daily case count data and the serial interval distribution. Computational speed and absence of arbitrary assumptions on smoothing makes EpiLPS an interesting tool for estimation of the reproduction number. Our methodology is validated through different simulation scenarios by using the associated R software package (https://cran.r-project.org/package=EpiLPS). We also demonstrate the use of EpiLPS on real data from two historical outbreaks and on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
Consumption of healthy foods and associated socio-demographic factors among Russian, Somali and Kurdish immigrants in Finland
Get PDFAims: We evaluated the consumption of healthy foods among Russian, Somali and Kurdish immigrants in Finland, and examined the relationship between socio-demographic factors and food consumption. Methods: We used data from the Migrant Health and Wellbeing Study (Maamu), a population-based health interview and examination survey in six different municipalities in Finland between 2010 and 2012. Altogether, 635 men and 737 women, aged 18-64 years, of Russian (n = 527), Somali (n = 337) and Kurdish (n = 508) origin were included. The important socio-demographic determinants of healthy food consumption - sex, age, education, place of residence and household size - were assessed by logistic regression. Results: Based on the consumption frequencies of recommended healthy foods - fruits, berries, vegetables, fish and rye bread - immigrants of Russian origin had higher consumption of healthy foods than their peers of Kurdish and Somali origin. Low consumption of fresh vegetables, fruits and berries was found among Somali immigrants. Sex and age were the most important determinants of healthy food consumption, as women and older age groups had diets closer to the national nutrition recommendations. High educational level was also positively associated with healthy food consumption. Conclusions: We found ethnic differences in the consumption of healthy foods among the immigrant groups of Russian, Somali and Kurdish origin in Finland. Socio-demographic factors, especially age, sex and education, seem to also play an important role in immigrants' food consumption. Further studies examining the consumption of fruits, berries and fresh vegetables among Somali immigrants in Finland are needed.Peer reviewe
Locoregional Residual Esophageal Cancer after Neo-adjuvant Chemoradiotherapy and Surgery Regarding Anatomic Site and Radiation Target Fields A Histopathologic Evaluation Study:A Histopathologic Evaluation Study
Get PDFOBJECTIVE: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery establishes a considerable pathologic complete response (pCR) in EC. The aim was to determine site of residual tumor and its prognostic impact.SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: High rates of residual tumor in the adventitial region even inside the radiation fields will influence current decision-making.METHODS: We evaluated resection specimens with marked target fields from 151 consecutive EC patients treated with carboplatin/paclitaxel and 41.4Gy between 2009 and 2018.RESULTS: In radically resected (R0) specimens 19.8% (27/136) had a pCR (ypT0N0) and 14% nearly no response (tumor regression grade: tumor regression grade 4-5). Residual tumor commonly extended in or restricted to the adventitia (43.1%; 47/109), whereas 7.3% was in the mucosa (ypT1a), 16.5% in the submucosa (ypT1b) and 6.4% only in lymph nodes (ypT0N+). Macroscopic residues in R0-specimens of partial responders (tumor regression grade 2-3: N = 90) were found in- and outside the gross tumor volume (GTV) in 33.3% and 8.9%, and only microscopic in- and outside the clinical target volume in 58.9% and 1.1%, respectively. Residual nodal disease was observed proximally and distally to the clinical target volume in 2 and 5 patients, respectively. Disease Free Survival decreased significantly if macroscopic tumor was outside the GTV and in ypT2-4aN+.CONCLUSIONS: After neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, pCR and ypT1aN0 were seen in a limited number of R0 resected specimens (19.8% and 7.3%, respectively), whereas 6.4% had only nodal disease (yT0N+). Disease Free Survival decreased significantly if macroscopic residue was outside the GTV and in responders with only nodal disease. Therefore, we should be cautious in applying wait and see strategies.</p
Author response: Different TCR-induced T lymphocyte responses are potentiated by stiffness with variable sensitivity
No full textEducation reform as an agent of change: the development of media literacy in Hong Kong during the last decade
Get PDFAlthough media education is a comparatively new area of studies in Hong Kong, it is already flourishing. Why? This contribution identifies the education reform as an important factor in encouraging the development of media education in the last decade, and the three major driving forces of this reform have been: the emphasis on civic education since Hong Kong’s return to China sovereignty, the introduction of information technology (ICT), and the recent review of the curriculum. The author also aims to find out whether the patterns used in media education development are their own Asian models or, on the contrary, they follow Wes tern patterns
Fiction littéraire et géographie au cycle 3
No full textCertains albums destinés à la jeunesse offrent des lieux parfois simplement suggérés, plus rarement offerts aux lecteurs par des descriptions détaillées. Entrer dans l’histoire, la comprendre, accompagner les personnages exige pourtant qu’on se représente le cadre de l’intrigue. Notre hypothèse est qu’interroger ce contexte spatial permet de poser des questions d’ordre géographique, mais aussi que des connaissances géographiques permettent de mieux appréhender l’histoire, voire le message de l’auteur. L’article questionne une mise en relation entre univers fictionnel et monde réel : en quoi la fiction offre-t-elle un espace géographique où les élèves puissent expérimenter des possibles qui les aident à comprendre le monde, en quoi des connaissances structurées du monde enrichissent-elle la lecture de l’histoire ? La démarche repose sur une expérimentation réalisée dans plusieurs classes de cours moyen à partir de l’album d’Édy-Legrand, Macao et Cosmage ou l’expérience du bonheur ; une série d’activités a été construite puis menée dans les classes. Les observations, ainsi que les traces collectées ont fait l’objet d’analyses dans les deux domaines, géographie et français.Some albums intended for children sometimes mention places only suggestively and more rarely provide readers with detailed descriptions. Entering into the story, understanding it, and following characters requires imagining the framework for the plot. We assume that investigating this spatial context is an opportunity to raise geographical questions but also an opportunity to better understand the story or the message of the author. The article focuses on the connection between fiction and reality: how can fiction offer a geographical space in which students can have different options to understand the world and how does structured knowledge of the world enrich the interpretation of history? Our experiment is based on Edy Legrand’s album Macao et Cosmage ou l’expérience du bonheur and was conducted in several classes of CM1 (Year 4). A series of activities was developed and experimented in these classes. Observations and the documents collected were analysed in two subject areas: geography and French.Algunos álbumes destinados a la juventud proponen a veces lugares tan sólo sugeridos, que no se ofrecen al lector con descripciones detalladas. Penetrar en la historia del relato, entenderla, acompañar a los personajes exige sin embargo que uno pueda representarse el marco de la intriga. Nuestra hipótesis es que interrogar este contexto espacial permite hacer preguntas sobre el tema de la geografía, pero también, al mismo tiempo, que los conocimientos geográficos permiten aprehender mejor la historia del relato, incluso el mensaje del autor. El artículo cuestiona una puesta en relación entre el universo ficticio y el mundo real : ¿en qué medida la ficción ofrece un espacio geográfico en el que los alumnos puedan experimentar unas posibilidades que les ayuden a entender el mundo ?, ¿en qué medida unos conocimientos estructurados enriquecen la lectura de la historia ? El proyecto estriba en un experimento realizado en varias clases con niños de 9 y 10 años a partir del álbum de Edy-Legrand, Macao y Cosmage o el experimento de la felicidad : se elaboró y experimentó en las clases una serie de actividades. Las observaciones, así como el trabajo de los alumnos, han sido analizados en los dos campos : en geografía y en letras (francés).Einige Jugendbücher handeln von Orten, die manchmal nur angedeutet sind und sich selten dem Leser durch detaillierte Beschreibungen darbieten. In die Geschichte eingehen, sie verstehen, die Figuren begleiten verlangt jedoch, dass man sich den Rahmen der Handlung vorstellen kann. Unsere Hypothese ist : wenn man diesen örtlichen Kontext hinterfragt, so kann man geographische Fragen stellen, aber wir vermuten auch, dass geographische Kenntnisse es erlauben, die Geschichte und auch die Botschaft des Autors besser zu erfassen. Der Artikel hinterfragt eine Vernetzung zwischen Fiktion und Realität : in wie fern bietet Fiktion einen geographischen Raum an, in dem die Schüler Möglichkeiten experimentieren können, die ihnen helfen, die Welt zu verstehen ? In wie fern können strukturierte Kenntnisse über die Welt das Lesen der Geschichte bereichern ? Die Herangehensweise stützt sich an eine in mehreren 4. Klassen geführte Experimentierung mit Alben von Edy-Legrand, Macao und Cosmage oder das Glückserlebnis. Eine Sammlung von Aktivitäten wurde konzipiert und in der Klasse geführt. Die Beobachtungen und die gesammelten Schriftstücke wurden in beiden Gebieten Geographie und Französisch analysiert
Proposal to Institute a Needle Exchange in Maricopa County
No full textabstract: Utilizing a compilation of existing literature, theory and current praxis, a clear case for instituting a needle exchange in Maricopa County is visible.. Research on HIV rates are consulted to establish a foundation for understanding the value of needle exchange programs nationally and in Maricopa County. Case studies on existing needle exchange efficacy are also used to support the proposal and outline the success of needle exchanges in reducing rates of infection
The health effects of air pollution in Delhi, India
Get PDFThe authors report the results of a time-series study of the impact of particulate air pollution on daily mortality in Delhi. They find: a) A positive, significant relationship between particulate pollution and daily nontraumatic deaths as well as deaths from certain causes (respiratory and cardiovascular problems) and for certain age groups. b) In general, these impacts are smaller than those estimated for other countries, where on average a 100-microgram increase in total suspended particulates (TSP) leads to a 6-percent increase in nontraumatic mortality. In Delhi, such an increase in TSP is associated with a 2.3-percent increase in deaths. c) The differences in magnitudes of the effects are most likely explained by differences in distributions of age at death and cause of death, as most deaths in Delhi occur before the age of 65 and are not attributed to causes with a strong association with air pollution. d) Although air pollution seems to have less impact on mortality counts in Delhi, the number of life-years saved per death avoided is greater in Delhi than in US cities -- because the age distribution of impacts in these two places varies. In the United States particulates have the greatest influence on daily deaths among persons 65 and older. In Delhi, they have the greatest impact in the 15-to-44 age group. That means that for each death associated with air pollution, on average more life-years would be saved in Delhi than in the United States. Large differences in the magnitude of effects do call into question the validity of the"concentration-response transfer"procedure. In that procedure, concentration-response relationships found for industrial countries are applied to cities in developing countries with little or no adjustment, to estimate the effects of pollution on daily mortality.Demographics,Public Health Promotion,Montreal Protocol,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Air Quality&Clean Air,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Montreal Protocol,Demographics,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Systems Development&Reform
Author Correction: CD8+T cell responsiveness to anti-PD-1 is epigenetically regulated by Suv39h1 in melanomas
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Labour market transitions and employment regimes: Evidence on the flexibility-security nexus in transitional labour markets
Get PDFThis paper deals with the question whether the concept of transitional labour market (TLM) might be useful to formulate hypotheses about the relationship between the size and nature of labour market transitions and the performance of employment regimes. The paper starts from the idea that the TLM concept, as being developed by Günther Schmid and others, might be connected with the notion of employment regimes as defined by Gösta Esping-Andersen and others. Subsequently the paper aims at testing empirically whether the claims of the TLM concept with respect to labour market flexibility and work security hold in the real worlds of European labour markets. The paper comes to the conclusion that the liberal regime combines a high level of labour mobility and flexibility (although not much higher than the corporatist or socialdemocratic regime) with a low level of work security, and that the social-democratic regime comes out with a high level of work security but a (somewhat) lower level of labour market mobility. However, these regimes do not fit that nicely in the ideal-type as this conclusion might suggest: the liberal regimes also have fairly high levels of employment security and social-democratic countries have fairly high levels of labour mobility and flexibility. The convergence hypothesis might find some ground in these findings. -- Thema der Studie ist die Frage, ob das Konzept der Übergangsarbeitsmärkte bei der Formulierung von Hypothesen zur Beziehung von Umfang und Formen der Arbeitsmarktübergänge und der Leistungsfähigkeit von Beschäftigungsregimes hilfreich sein könnte. Ausgangspunkt ist die Idee, ob das Konzept der Übergangsarbeitsmärkte, wie es von Günther Schmid und anderen entwickelt wurde, mit dem von Gösta Esping- Andersen und anderen geschaffenen Konzept der Beschäftigungsregimes verknüpft werden könnte. Anschließend wird durch empirische Analysen getestet, ob die in der Theorie formulierten Anforderungen des Übergangsarbeitsmarkt-Konzepts hinsichtlich Arbeitsmarktflexibilität und Beschäftigungssicherheit den tatsächlichen Anforderungen auf den europäischen Arbeitsmärkten standhalten. Als Ergebnis ist festzuhalten, dass in liberalen Beschäftigungsregimen eine hohe Mobilität und Flexibilität der Arbeit (die aber nicht sehr viel höher ist als in korporatistischen oder sozialdemokratischen Beschäftigungsregimen) mit einer niedrigen Arbeitsplatzsicherheit einhergeht und dass in sozialdemokratischen Regimen eine hohe Arbeitsplatzsicherheit mit einem etwas niedrigeren Niveau der Mobilität auf dem Arbeitsmarkt verknüpft ist. Diese Regime entsprechen aber nicht so genau dem Idealtyp, wie es die dargelegten Schlussfolgerungen suggerieren könnten: auch die liberalen Beschäftigungsregime haben ein durchaus hohes Niveau der Beschäftigungssicherheit und sozialdemokratische Länder ein hohes Niveau von Mobilität und Flexibilität auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Diese Ergebnisse legen das Aufgreifen der Konvergenz-Hypothese nahe.
