35 research outputs found
Design, construction and evaluation of a meteorological mobile mast
Get PDFA 30 metre meteorological mobile mast has been designed and constructed for upper air profile measurements. The parameters to be measured are wind speed, wind direction, temperature and relative humidity. The sensors for each parameter to be measured are constructed with locally available materials. The mechanical mast is designed in such a way that it can be collapsed like the electronic - controlled car radio antenna. It is made up of steel pipes of different diameters driven manually or by an electric motor via a pulley system. The sensors were calibrated with standard instruments and attached to different height of the mast for sample data acquisition. Data obtained from the sensors are stored in a data logger at the base of the mast. The data obtained were analyzed and there are appreciable correlations between the standard and the constructed instruments.Keywords: Instrumented, Meteorological, Mast, Profile, Measurement
Thermodynamic properties of Al in ternary lead-free solder Al-Sn-Zn alloys
No full textAbstractThermodynamic properties of Al were calculated using the molecular interaction volume model (MIVM) by analyzing the activities of components in the constitutive binary Al-Sn, Al-Zn and Sn-Zn subsystems of the ternary lead-free solder Al-Sn-Zn systems. The activities of Al content in the ternary system at three cross-sections with constant molar ratios of Sn:Zn = 2:1, 1:1 and 1:2, respectively, were calculated and compared with available experimental data at 973 K. Based on the agreement between the calculated activity values and corresponding literature data for Al-Sn-Zn alloys and their subsystems, the activity of Al content in the ternary Al-Sn-Zn system was estimated at the same cross-sections and mole ratios in the temperature range of 1073 K to 1373 K, respectively. It has been observed through the computed activity values of Al that the thermodynamic properties of the ternary Al-Sn-Zn systems do not change appreciably with temperature across the molar sections.</jats:p
Assessment of the global Copernicus, NASADEM, ASTER and AW3D digital elevation models in Central and Southern Africa
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The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.Validation studies of global Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) in the existing literature are limited by the diversity and spread of landscapes, terrain types considered and sparseness of groundtruth. Moreover, there are knowledge gaps on the accuracy variations in rugged and complex landscapes, and previous studies have often not relied on robust internal and external validation measures. Thus, there is still only partial understanding and limited perspective of the reliability and adequacy of global DEMs for several applications. In this study, we utilize a dense spread of LiDAR groundtruth to assess the vertical accuracies of four medium-resolution, readily available, free-access and global coverage 1 arc-second (30 m) DEMs: NASADEM, ASTER GDEM, Copernicus GLO-30, and ALOS World 3D (AW3D). The assessment is carried out at landscapes spread across Cape Town, Southern Africa (urban/industrial, agricultural, mountain, peninsula and grassland/shrubland) and forested national parks in Gabon, Central Africa (low-relief tropical rainforest and high-relief tropical rainforest). The statistical analysis is based on robust accuracy metrics that cater for normal and non-normal elevation error distribution, and error ranking. In Cape Town, Copernicus DEM generally had the least vertical error with an overall Mean Error (ME) of 0.82 m and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.34 m while ASTER DEM had the poorest performance. However, ASTER GDEM and NASADEM performed better in the low-relief and high-relief tropical forests of Gabon. Generally, the DEM errors have a moderate to high positive correlation in forests, and a low to moderate positive correlation in mountains and urban areas. Copernicus DEM showed superior vertical accuracy in forests with less than 40% tree cover, while ASTER and NASADEM performed better in denser forests with tree cover greater than 70%. This study is a robust regional assessment of these global DEMs.The Commonwealth Scholarship Commission and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in the UK and the University of Cape Town Postgraduate Funding Office.https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tgsi20hj2024Geography, Geoinformatics and MeteorologySDG-15:Life on lan
Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Queensland Department of Health, Australia; UK Department of Health and Social Care; the Norwegian Institute of Public Health; St Jude Children’s Research Hospital; and the New Zealand Ministry of Health. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the funders. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with license number SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law–2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. Collection of these data was made possible by USAID under the terms of cooperative agreement GPO-A-00-08-000_D3-00.Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 2000 autors/es: Mohsen Naghavi , Kanyin Liane Ong , Amirali Aali , Hazim S Ababneh , Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate , Cristiana Abbafati , Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh , Mohammadreza Abbasian , Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari , Hedayat Abbastabar , Samar Abd ElHafeez , Michael Abdelmasseh , Sherief Abd-Elsalam , Ahmed Abdelwahab , Mohammad Abdollahi , Mohammad-Amin Abdollahifar , Meriem Abdoun , Deldar Morad Abdulah , Auwal Abdullahi , Mesfin Abebe , Samrawit Shawel Abebe , Aidin Abedi , Kedir Hussein Abegaz , E S Abhilash , Hassan Abidi , Olumide Abiodun , Richard Gyan Aboagye , Hassan Abolhassani , Meysam Abolmaali , Mohamed Abouzid , Girma Beressa Aboye , Lucas Guimarães Abreu , Woldu Aberhe Abrha , Dariush Abtahi , Samir Abu Rumeileh , Hasan Abualruz , Bilyaminu Abubakar , Eman Abu-Gharbieh , Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh , Salahdein Aburuz , Ahmed Abu-Zaid , Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi , Tadele Girum Adal , Abdu A Adamu , Isaac Yeboah Addo , Giovanni Addolorato , Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi , Victor Adekanmbi , Abiola Victor Adepoju , Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji , Juliana Bunmi Adetunji , Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa , Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka , Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye , Biruk Adie Adie Admass , Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani , Saryia Adra , Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi , Muhammad Sohail Afzal , Saira Afzal , Suneth Buddhika Agampodi , Pradyumna Agasthi , Manik Aggarwal , Shahin Aghamiri , Feleke Doyore Agide , Antonella Agodi , Anurag Agrawal , Williams Agyemang-Duah , Bright Opoku Ahinkorah , Aqeel Ahmad , Danish Ahmad , Firdos Ahmad , Muayyad M Ahmad , Sajjad Ahmad , Shahzaib Ahmad , Tauseef Ahmad , Keivan Ahmadi , Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade , Ali Ahmed , Ayman Ahmed , Haroon Ahmed , Luai A Ahmed , Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed , Meqdad Saleh Ahmed , Muktar Beshir Ahmed , Syed Anees Ahmed , Marjan Ajami , Budi Aji , Essona Matatom Akara , Hossein Akbarialiabad , Karolina Akinosoglou , Tomi Akinyemiju , Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif , Samuel Akyirem , Hanadi Al Hamad , Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan , Fares Alahdab , Samer O Alalalmeh , Tariq A Alalwan , Ziyad Al-Aly , Khurshid Alam , Manjurul Alam , Noore Alam , Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer , Fahad Mashhour Alanezi , Turki M Alanzi , Sayer Al-Azzam , Almaza Albakri , Mohammed Albashtawy , Mohammad T AlBataineh , Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal , Khalifah A Aldawsari , Wafa A Aldhaleei , Robert W Aldridge , Haileselasie Berhane Alema , Mulubirhan Assefa Alemayohu , Sharifullah Alemi , Yihun Mulugeta Alemu , Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi , Khalid F Alhabib , Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa , Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi , Abid Ali , Amjad Ali , Liaqat Ali , Mohammed Usman Ali , Rafat Ali , Shahid Ali , Syed Shujait Shujait Ali , Gianfranco Alicandro , Sheikh Mohammad Alif , Reyhaneh Alikhani , Yousef Alimohamadi , Ahmednur Adem Aliyi , Mohammad A M Aljasir , Syed Mohamed Aljunid , François Alla , Peter Allebeck , Sabah Al-Marwani , Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri , Joseph Uy Almazan , Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi , Louay Almidani , Omar Almidani , Mahmoud A Alomari , Basem Al-Omari , Jordi Alonso , Jaber S Alqahtani , Shehabaldin Alqalyoobi , Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi , Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah , Zaid Altaany , Awais Altaf , Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq , Khalid A Altirkawi , Deborah Oyine Aluh , Nelson Alvis-Guzman , Hassan Alwafi , Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi , Hany Aly , Safwat Aly , Karem H Alzoubi , Reza Amani , Azmeraw T Amare , Prince M Amegbor , Edward Kwabena Ameyaw , Tarek Tawfik Amin , Alireza Amindarolzarbi , Sohrab Amiri , Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq , Hubert Amu , Dickson A Amugsi , Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa , Robert Ancuceanu , Deanna Anderlini , David B Anderson , Pedro Prata Andrade , Catalina Liliana Andrei , Tudorel Andrei , Colin Angus , Abhishek Anil , Sneha Anil , Amir Anoushiravani , Hossein Ansari , Ansariadi Ansariadi , Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam , Catherine M Antony , Ernoiz Antriyandarti , Davood Anvari , Saeid Anvari , Saleha Anwar , Sumadi Lukman Anwar , Razique Anwer , Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor , Muhammad Aqeel , Juan Pablo Arab , Jalal Arabloo , Mosab Arafat , Aleksandr Y Aravkin , Demelash Areda , Abdulfatai Aremu , Olatunde Aremu , Hany Ariffin , Mesay Arkew , Benedetta Armocida , Michael Benjamin Arndt , Johan Ärnlöv , Mahwish Arooj , Anton A Artamonov , Judie Arulappan , Raphael Taiwo Aruleba , Ashokan Arumugam , Malke Asaad , Mohsen Asadi-Lari , Akeza Awealom Asgedom , Mona Asghariahmadabad , Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi , Muhammad Ashraf , Armin Aslani , Thomas Astell-Burt , Mohammad Athar , Seyyed Shamsadin Athari , Bantalem Tilaye Tilaye Atinafu , Habtamu Wondmagegn Atlaw , Prince Atorkey , Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout , Alok Atreya , Avinash Aujayeb , Marcel Ausloos , Abolfazl Avan , Atalel Fentahun Awedew , Amlaku Mulat Aweke , Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla , Haleh Ayatollahi , Jose L Ayuso-Mateos , Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh , Sina Azadnajafabad , Rui M S Azevedo , Ahmed Y Azzam , Darshan B B , Abraham Samuel Babu , Muhammad Badar , Ashish D Badiye , Soroush Baghdadi , Nasser Bagheri , Sara Bagherieh , Sulaiman Bah , Saeed Bahadorikhalili , Najmeh Bahmanziari , Ruhai Bai , Atif Amin Baig , Jennifer L Baker , Abdulaziz T Bako , Ravleen Kaur Bakshi , Senthilkumar Balakrishnan , Madhan Balasubramanian , Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu , Kiran Bam , Maciej Banach , Soham Bandyopadhyay , Palash Chandra Banik , Hansi Bansal , Kannu Bansal , Franca Barbic , Martina Barchitta , Mainak Bardhan , Erfan Bardideh , Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo , Till Winfried Bärnighausen , Francesco Barone-Adesi , Hiba Jawdat Barqawi , Lope H Barrero , Amadou Barrow , Sandra Barteit , Lingkan Barua , Zarrin Basharat , Azadeh Bashiri , Afisu Basiru , Pritish Baskaran , Buddha Basnyat , Quique Bassat , João Diogo Basso , Ann V L Basting , Sanjay Basu , Kavita Batra , Bernhard T Baune , Mohsen Bayati , Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn , Thomas Beaney , Neeraj Bedi , Massimiliano Beghi , Emad Behboudi , Priyamadhaba Behera , Amir Hossein Behnoush , Masoud Behzadifar , Maryam Beiranvand , Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez , Yannick Béjot , Sefealem Assefa Belay , Chalie Mulu Belete , Michelle L Bell , Muhammad Bashir Bello , Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello , Luis Belo , Apostolos Beloukas , Rose Grace Bender , Isabela M Bensenor , Azizullah Beran , Zombor Berezvai , Alemshet Yirga Berhie , Betyna N Berice , Robert S Bernstein , Gregory J Bertolacci , Paulo J G Bettencourt , Kebede A Beyene , Devidas S Bhagat , Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula , Neeraj Bhala , Ashish Bhalla , Dinesh Bhandari , Kayleigh Bhangdia , Nikha Bhardwaj , Pankaj Bhardwaj , Prarthna V Bhardwaj , Ashish Bhargava , Sonu Bhaskar , Vivek Bhat , Gurjit Kaur Bhatti , Jasvinder Singh Bhatti , Manpreet S Bhatti , Rajbir Bhatti , Zulfiqar A Bhutta , Boris Bikbov , Jessica Devin Bishai , Catherine Bisignano , Francesca Bisulli , Atanu Biswas , Bijit Biswas , Saeid Bitaraf , Bikes Destaw Bitew , Veera R Bitra , Tone Bjørge , Micheal Kofi Boachie , Mary Sefa Boampong , Anca Vasilica Bobirca , Virginia Bodolica , Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin , Eyob Ketema Bogale , Kassawmar Angaw Bogale , Somayeh Bohlouli , Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa , Archith Boloor , Milad Bonakdar Hashemi , Aime Bonny , Kaustubh Bora , Berrak Bora Basara , Hamed Borhany , Arturo Borzutzky , Souad Bouaoud , Antoine Boustany , Christopher Boxe , Edward J Boyko , Oliver J Brady , Dejana Braithwaite , Luisa C Brant , Michael Brauer , Alexandra Brazinova , Javier Brazo-Sayavera , Nicholas J K Breitborde , Susanne Breitner , Hermann Brenner , Andrey Nikolaevich Briko , Nikolay Ivanovich Briko , Gabrielle Britton , Julie Brown , Traolach Brugha , Norma B Bulamu , Lemma N Bulto , Danilo Buonsenso , Richard A Burns , Reinhard Busse , Yasser Bustanji , Nadeem Shafique Butt , Zahid A Butt , Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos , Daniela Calina , Luis Alberto Cámera , Luciana Aparecida Campos , Ismael R Campos-Nonato , Chao Cao , Yin Cao , Angelo Capodici , Rosario Cárdenas , Sinclair Carr , Giulia Carreras , Juan J Carrero , Andrea Carugno , Cristina G Carvalheiro , Felix Carvalho , Márcia Carvalho , Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia , Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela , Giulio Castelpietra , Ferrán Catalá-López , Alberico L Catapano , Maria Sofia Cattaruzza , Christopher R Cederroth , Luca Cegolon , Francieli Cembranel , Muthia Cenderadewi , Kelly M Cercy , Ester Cerin , Muge Cevik , Joshua Chadwick , Yaacoub Chahine , Chiranjib Chakraborty , Promit Ananyo Chakraborty , Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan , Raymond N C Chan , Rama Mohan Chandika , Eeshwar K Chandrasekar , Chin-Kuo Chang , Jung-Chen Chang , Gashaw Sisay Chanie , Periklis Charalampous , Vijay Kumar Chattu , Pankaj Chaturvedi , Victoria Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou , Akhilanand Chaurasia , Angela W Chen , An-Tian Chen , Catherine S Chen , Haowei Chen , Meng Xuan Chen , Simiao Chen , Ching-Yu Cheng , Esther T W Cheng , Nicolas Cherbuin , Wondimye Ashenafi Cheru , Ju-Huei Chien , Odgerel Chimed-Ochir , Ritesh Chimoriya , Patrick R Ching , Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres , Abdulaal Chitheer , William C S Cho , Bryan Chong , Hitesh Chopra , Sonali Gajanan Choudhari , Rajiv Chowdhury , Devasahayam J Christopher , Isaac Sunday Chukwu , Eric Chung , Erin Chung , Eunice Chung , Sheng-Chia Chung , Muhammad Chutiyami , Zinhle Cindi , Iolanda Cioffi , Mareli M Claassens , Rafael M Claro , Kaleb Coberly , Rebecca M Cogen , Alyssa Columbus , Haley Comfort , Joao Conde , Samuele Cortese , Paolo Angelo Cortesi , Vera Marisa Costa , Simona Costanzo , Ewerton Cousin , Rosa A S Couto , Richard G Cowden , Kenneth Michael Cramer , Michael H Criqui , Natália Cruz-Martins , Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernández , Garland T Culbreth , Patricia Cullen , Matthew Cunningham , Maria paula Curado , Sriharsha Dadana , Omid Dadras , Siyu Dai , Xiaochen Dai , Zhaoli Dai , Lachlan L Dalli , Giovanni Damiani , Jiregna Darega Gela , Jai K Das , Saswati Das , Subasish Das , Ana Maria Dascalu , Nihar Ranjan Dash , Mohsen Dashti , Anna Dastiridou , Gail Davey , Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes , Nicole Davis Weaver , Kairat Davletov , Diego De Leo , Katie de Luca , Aklilu Tamire Debele , Shayom Debopadhaya , Louisa Degenhardt , Azizallah Dehghan , Lee Deitesfeld , Cristian Del Bo' , Ivan Delgado-Enciso , Berecha Hundessa Demessa , Andreas K Demetriades , Ke Deng , Xinlei Deng , Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez , Niloofar Deravi , Nebiyu Dereje , Nikolaos Dervenis , Emina Dervišević , Don C Des Jarlais , Hardik Dineshbhai Desai , Rupak Desai , Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu , Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan , Arkadeep Dhali , Kuldeep Dhama , Meghnath Dhimal , Sameer Dhingra , Vishal R Dhulipala , Diana Dias da Silva , Daniel Diaz , Michael J Diaz , Adriana Dima , Delaney D Ding , Huanghe Ding , Ricardo Jorge Dinis-Oliveira , M Ashworth Dirac , Shirin Djalalinia , Thao Huynh Phuong Do , Camila Bruneli do Prado , Saeid Doaei , Masoud Dodangeh , Milad Dodangeh , Sushil Dohare , Klara Georgieva Dokova , Christiane Dolecek , Regina-Mae Villanueva Dominguez , Wanyue Dong , Deepa Dongarwar , Mario D'Oria , Fariba Dorostkar , E Ray Dorsey , Wendel Mombaque dos Santos , Rajkumar Doshi , Leila Doshmangir , Robert Kokou Dowou , Tim Robert Driscoll , Haneil Larson Dsouza , Viola Dsouza , Mi Du , John Dube , Bruce B Duncan , Andre Rodrigues Duraes , Senbagam Duraisamy , Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye , Laura Dwyer-Lindgren , Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach , Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic , Abdel Rahman E'mar , Ejemai Eboreime , Alireza Ebrahimi , Chidiebere Peter Echieh , Hisham Atan Edinur , David Edvardsson , Kristina Edvardsson , Defi Efendi , Ferry Efendi , Diyan Ermawan Effendi , Terje Andreas Eikemo , Ebrahim Eini , Michael Ekholuenetale , Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo , Iman El Sayed , Iffat Elbarazi , Teshome Bekele Elema , Noha Mousaad Elemam , Frank J Elgar , Islam Y Elgendy , Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary , Hala Rashad Elhabashy , Muhammed Elhadi , Waseem El-Huneidi , Legesse Tesfaye Elilo , Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy , Mohamed A Elmonem , Mohammed Elshaer , Ibrahim Elsohaby , Theophilus I Emeto , Luchuo Engelbert Bain , Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar , Christopher Imokhuede Esezobor , Babak Eshrati , Sharareh Eskandarieh , Juan Espinosa-Montero , Habtamu Esubalew , Farshid Etaee , Natalia Fabin , Adewale Oluwaseun Fadaka , Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe , Ayesha Fahim , Saman Fahimi , Aliasghar Fakhri-Demeshghieh , Luca Falzone , Mohammad Fareed , Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha , MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris , Pawan Sirwan Faris , Andre Faro , Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi , Ali Fatehizadeh , Hamed Fattahi , Nelsensius Klau Fauk , Pooria Fazeli , Valery L Feigin , Alireza Feizkhah , Ginenus Fekadu , Xiaoru Feng , Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad , Abdullah Hamid Feroze , Daniela Ferrante , Alize J Ferrari , Nuno Ferreira , Getahun Fetensa , Bikila Regassa Feyisa , Irina Filip , Florian Fischer , Joanne Flavel , David Flood , Bobirca Teodor Florin , Nataliya A Foigt , Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan , Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov , Behzad Foroutan , Masoud Foroutan , Ingeborg Forthun , Daniela Fortuna , Matteo Foschi , Kayode Raphael Fowobaje , Kate Louise Francis , Richard Charles Franklin , Alberto Freitas , Joseph Friedman , Sara D Friedman , Takeshi Fukumoto , John E Fuller , Blima Fux , Peter Andras Gaal , Muktar A Gadanya , Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane , Santosh Gaihre , Emmanuela Gakidou , Yaseen Galali , Natalie C Galles , Silvano Gallus , Mandukhai Ganbat , Aravind P Gandhi , Balasankar Ganesan , Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani , MA Garcia-Gordillo , William M Gardner , Jalaj Garg , Naval Garg , Rupesh K Gautam , Semiu Olatunde Gbadamosi , Tilaye Gebru Gebi , Miglas W Gebregergis , Mesfin Gebrehiwot , Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel , Simona Roxana Georgescu , Tamirat Getachew , Peter W Gething , Molla Getie , Keyghobad Ghadiri , Sulmaz Ghahramani , Khalid Yaser Ghailan , Mohammad-Reza Ghasemi , Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi , Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh , Ahmad Ghashghaee , Fariba Ghassemi , Ramy Mohamed Ghazy , Ajnish Ghimire , Sama Ghoba , Maryam Gholamalizadeh , Asadollah Gholamian , Ali Gholamrezanezhad , Nasim Gholizadeh , Mahsa Ghorbani , Pooyan Ghorbani Vajargah , Aloke Gopal Ghoshal , Paramjit Singh Gill , Tiffany K Gill , Richard F Gillum , Themba G Ginindza , Alem Girmay , James C Glasbey , Elena V Gnedovskaya , Laszlo Göbölös , Myron Anthony Godinho , Amit Goel , Ali Golchin , Mohamad Goldust , Mahaveer Golechha , Pouya Goleij , Nelson G M Gomes , Philimon N Gona , Sameer Vali Gopalani , Giuseppe Gorini , Houman Goudarzi , Alessandra C Goulart , Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart , Anmol Goyal , Ayman Grada , Simon Matthew Graham , Michal Grivna , Giuseppe Grosso , Shi-Yang Guan , Giovanni Guarducci , Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari , Mesay Dechasa Gudeta , Avirup Guha , Stefano Guicciardi , Rafael Alves Guimarães , Snigdha Gulati , Damitha Asanga Gunawardane , Sasidhar Gunturu , Cui Guo , Anish Kumar Gupta , Bhawna Gupta , Manoj Kumar Gupta , Mohak Gupta , Rajat Das Gupta , Rajeev Gupta , Sapna Gupta , Veer Bala Gupta , Vijai Kumar Gupta , Vivek Kumar Gupta , Lami Gurmessa , Reyna Alma Gutiérrez , Farrokh Habibzadeh , Parham Habibzadeh , Rasool Haddadi , Mostafa Hadei , Najah R Hadi , Nils Haep , Nima Hafezi-Nejad , Alemayehu Hailu , Arvin Haj-Mirzaian , Esam S Halboub , Brian J Hall , Sebastian Haller , Rabih Halwani , Randah R Hamadeh , Sajid Hameed , Samer Hamidi , Erin B Hamilton , Chieh Han , Qiuxia Han , Asif Hanif , Nasrin Hanifi , Graeme J Hankey , Fahad Hanna , Md Abdul Hannan , Md Nuruzzaman Haque , Harapan Harapan , Arief Hargono , Josep Maria Haro , Ahmed I Hasaballah , Ikramul Hasan , M Tasdik Hasan , Hamidreza Hasani , Mohammad Hasanian , Abdiwahab Hashi , Md Saquib Hasnain , Ikrama Hassan , Soheil Hassanipour , Hadi Hassankhani , Johannes Haubold , Rasmus J Havmoeller , Simon I Hay , Jiawei He , Jeffrey J Hebert , Omar E Hegazi , Golnaz Heidari , Mohammad Heidari , Mahsa Heidari-Foroozan , Bartosz Helfer , Delia Hendrie , Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna , Claudiu Herteliu , Hamed Hesami , Kamal Hezam , Catherine L Hill , Yuta Hiraike , Ramesh Holla , Nobuyuki Horita , Md Mahbub Hossain , Sahadat Hossain , Mohammad-Salar Hosseini , Hassan Hosseinzadeh , Mehdi Hosseinzadeh , Ahmad Hosseinzadeh Adli , Mihaela Hostiuc , Sorin Hostiuc , Mohamed Hsairi , Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh , Rebecca L Hsu , Chengxi Hu , Junjie Huang , Michael Hultström , Ayesha Humayun , Tsegaye Gebreyes Hundie , Javid Hussain , M Azhar Hussain , Nawfal R Hussein , Foziya Mohammed Hussien , Hong-Han Huynh , Bing-Fang Hwang , Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye , Khalid S Ibrahim , Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar , Desta Ijo , Adalia I Ikiroma , Kevin S Ikuta , Paul Chukwudi Ikwegbue , Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi , Irena M Ilic , Milena D Ilic , Mohammad Tarique Imam , Mustapha Immurana , Sumant Inamdar , Endang Indriasih , Muhammad Iqhrammullah , Arnaud Iradukunda , Kenneth Chukwuemeka Iregbu , Md Rabiul Islam , Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam , Farhad Islami , Faisal Ismail , Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail , Hiroyasu Iso , Gaetano Isola , Masao Iwagami , Chidozie C D Iwu , Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu , Mahalaxmi Iyer , Linda Merin J , Jalil Jaafari , Louis Jacob , Kathryn H Jacobsen , Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh , Morteza Jafarinia , Abdollah Jafarzadeh , Khushleen Jaggi , Kasra Jahankhani , Nader Jahanmehr , Haitham Jahrami , Nityanand Jain , Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun , Abhishek Jaiswal , Elham Jamshidi , Mark M Janko , Abubakar Ibrahim Jatau , Sabzali Javadov , Tahereh Javaheri , Sathish Kumar Jayapal , Shubha Jayaram , Rime Jebai , Sun Ha Jee , Jayakumar Jeganathan , Anil K Jha , Ravi Prakash Jha , Heng Jiang , Yingzhao Jin , Olatunji Johnson , Mohammad Jokar , Jost B Jonas , Tamas Joo , Abel Joseph , Nitin Joseph , Charity Ehimwenma Joshua , Grace Joshy , Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak , Mikk Jürisson , Vaishali K , Billingsley Kaambwa , Ali Kabir , Zubair Kabir , Vidya Kadashetti , Dler Hussein Kadir , Rizwan Kalani , Laleh R Kalankesh , Leila R Kalankesh , Feroze Kaliyadan , Sanjay Kalra , Vineet Kumar Kamal , Sivesh Kathir Kamarajah , Rajesh Kamath , Zahra Kamiab , Naser Kamyari , Thanigaivelan Kanagasabai , Tanuj Kanchan , Himal Kandel , Arun R Kanmanthareddy , Edmund Wedam Kanmiki , Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi , Suthanthira Kannan S , Sushil Kumar Kansal , Rami S Kantar , Neeti Kapoor , Mehrdad Karajizadeh , Shama D Karanth , Reema A Karasneh , Ibraheem M Karaye , André Karch , Asima Karim , Salah Eddin Karimi , Arman Karimi Behnagh , Faizan Zaffar Kashoo , Qalandar Hussein Abdulkarim Kasnazani , Hengameh Kasraei , Nicholas J Kassebaum , Molly B Kassel , Joonas H Kauppila , Navjot Kaur , Norito Kawakami , Gbenga A Kayode , Foad Kazemi , Sina Kazemian , Tahseen Haider Kazmi , Getu Mosisa Kebebew , Adera Debella Kebede , Fassikaw Kebede , Tibebeselassie S Keflie , Peter Njenga Keiyoro , Cathleen Keller , Jaimon Terence Kelly , John H Kempen , Jessica A Kerr , Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot , Himanshu Khajuria , Amirmohammad Khalaji , Nauman Khalid , Anees Ahmed Khalil , Alireza Khalilian , Faham Khamesipour , Ajmal Khan , Asaduzzaman Khan , Gulfaraz Khan , Ikramullah Khan , Imteyaz A Khan , M Nuruzzaman Khan , Maseer Khan , Mohammad Jobair Khan , Moien AB Khan , Zeeshan Ali Khan , Mahammed Ziauddin Khan suheb , Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi , Khaled Khatab , Fatemeh Khatami , Haitham Khatatbeh , Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh , Armin Khavandegar , Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani , Feriha Fatima Khidri , Elaheh Khodadoust , Mohammad Khorgamphar , Moein Khormali , Zahra Khorrami , Ahmad Khosravi , Mohammad Ali Khosravi , Zemene Demelash Kifle , Grace Kim , Jihee Kim , Kwanghyun Kim , Min Seo Kim , Yun Jin Kim , Ruth W Kimokoti , Kasey E Kinzel , Adnan Kisa , Sezer Kisa , Desmond Klu , Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen , Jonathan M Kocarnik , Sonali Kochhar , Timea Kocsis , David S Q Koh , Ali-Asghar Kolahi , Kairi Kolves , Farzad Kompani , Gerbrand Koren , Soewarta Kosen , Karel Kostev , Parvaiz A Koul , Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana , Kewal Krishan , Hare Krishna , Varun Krishna , Vijay Krishnamoorthy , Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy , Kris J Krohn , Barthelemy Kuate Defo , Burcu Kucuk Bicer , Md Abdul Kuddus , Mohammed Kuddus , Ilari Kuitunen , Mukhtar Kulimbet , Vishnutheertha Kulkarni , Akshay Kumar , Ashish Kumar , Harish Kumar , Manasi Kumar , Rakesh Kumar , Madhulata Kumari , Fantahun Tarekegn Kumie , Satyajit Kundu , Om P Kurmi , Asep Kusnali , Dian
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textNatalia V Bhattacharjee, Austin E Schumacher, Amirali Aali, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Hedayat Abbastabar, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Mohammad Abdollahi, Mohammad-Amin Abdollahifar, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Mesfin Abebe, Samrawit Shawel Abebe, Olumide Abiodun, Hassan Abolhassani, Meysam Abolmaali, Mohamed Abouzid, Girma Beressa Aboye, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Woldu Aberhe Abrha, Michael R M Abrigo, Dariush Abtahi, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Tadele Girum Girum Adal, Mesafint Molla Adane, Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Adeagbo, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Bashir Aden, Abiola Victor Adepoju, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka, Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Saryia Adra, Rotimi Felix Afolabi, Shadi Afyouni, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Afzal, Shahin Aghamiri, Antonella Agodi, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Austin J Ahlstrom, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Ali Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Luai A Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Budi Aji, Gizachew Taddesse Akalu, Hossein Akbarialiabad, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Sreelatha Akkala, Hanadi Al Hamad, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Mohammad Al Qadire, Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal, Samer O Alalalmeh, Tariq A Alalwan, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Almaza Albakri, Mohammed Albashtawy, Mohammad T AlBataineh, Hediyeh Alemi, Sharifullah Alemi, Yihun Mulugeta Alemu, Ayman Al-Eyadhy, Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi, Khalid F Alhabib, Noora Alhajri, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Abid Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Liaqat Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Mohammad Aligol, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Mohammad A M Aljasir, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Sabah Al-Marwani, Joseph Uy Almazan, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Omar Almidani, Mahmoud A Alomari, Basem Al-Omari, Jaber S Alqahtani, Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Awais Altaf, Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq, Khalid A Altirkawi, Deborah Oyine Aluh, Farrukh Jawad Alvi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Hassan Alwafi, Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi, Hany Aly, Safwat Aly, Karem H Alzoubi, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, Mostafa Amini-Rarani, Sohrab Amiri, Irene Gyamfuah Ampomah, Dickson A Amugsi, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Robert Ancuceanu, Deanna Anderlini, Pedro Prata Andrade, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Abhishek Anil, Sneha Anil, Adnan Ansar, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Catherine M Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Saeid Anvari, SALEHA ANWAR, Razique Anwer, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Jalal Arabloo, Razman Arabzadeh Bahri, Elshaimaa A Arafa, Mosab Arafat, Ana Margarida Araújo, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Abdulfatai Aremu, Timur Aripov, Mesay Arkew, Benedetta Armocida, Johan Ärnlöv, Mahwish Arooj, Anton A Artamonov, Judie Arulappan, Raphael Taiwo Aruleba, Ashokan Arumugam, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, Zatollah Asemi, Saeed Asgary, Mona Asghariahmadabad, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mubarek Yesse Ashemo, Muhammad Ashraf, Tahira Ashraf, Marvellous O Asika, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout, Alok Atreya, Avinash Aujayeb, Marcel Ausloos, Abolfazl Avan, Amlaku Mulat Aweke, Getnet Melaku Ayele, Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh, Sina Azadnajafabad, Rui M S Azevedo, Ahmed Y Azzam, Muhammad Badar, Ashish D Badiye, Soroush Baghdadi, Nasser Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Najmeh Bahmanziari, Ruhai Bai, Atif Amin Baig, Jennifer L Baker, Abdulaziz T Bako, Ravleen Kaur Bakshi, Madhan Balasubramanian, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Kiran Bam, Maciej Banach, Soham Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit Banik, Palash Chandra Banik, Hansi Bansal, Mehmet Firat Baran, Martina Barchitta, Mainak Bardhan, Erfan Bardideh, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Francesco Barone-Adesi, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Amadou Barrow, Sandra Barteit, Zarrin Basharat, Asma'u I J Bashir, Hameed Akande Bashiru, Afisu Basiru, João Diogo Basso, Sanjay Basu, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha, Kavita Batra, Bernhard T Baune, Mohsen Bayati, Tahmina Begum, Emad Behboudi, Amir Hossein Behnoush, Maryam Beiranvand, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Alehegn Bekele, Sefealem Assefa Belay, Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi, Michelle L Bell, Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello, Apostolos Beloukas, Isabela M Bensenor, Zombor Berezvai, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Amiel Nazer C Bermudez, Paulo J G Bettencourt, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Prarthna V Bhardwaj, Sonu Bhaskar, Vivek Bhat, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Manpreet S Bhatti, Rajbir Bhatti, Antonio Biondi, Catherine Bisignano, Atanu Biswas, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Veera R Bitra, Tone Bjørge, Elye Bliss, Micheal Kofi Boachie, Anca Vasilica Bobirca, Virginia Bodolica, Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin, Eyob Ketema Bogale, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Milad Bonakdar Hashemi, Berrak Bora Basara, Souad Bouaoud, Dejana Braithwaite, Michael Brauer, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Dana Bryazka, Norma B Bulamu, Danilo Buonsenso, Katrin Burkart, Richard A Burns, Yasser Bustanji, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Daniela Calina, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Fan Cao, Shujin Cao, Angelo Capodici, Giulia Carreras, Andrea Carugno, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Giulio Castelpietra, Maria Sofia Cattaruzza, Arthur Caye, Luca Cegolon, Francieli Cembranel, Ester Cerin, Joshua Chadwick, Yaacoub Chahine, Chiranjib Chakraborty, Julian Chalek, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan, Periklis Charalampous, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Sarika Chaturvedi, Malizgani Paul Chavula, An-Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Simiao Chen, Gerald Chi, Fatemeh Chichagi, Ju-Huei Chien, Patrick R Ching, William C S Cho, Sungchul Choi, Bryan Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Sonali Gajanan Choudhari, Devasahayam J Christopher, Dinh-Toi Chu, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Eric Chung, Sheng-Chia Chung, Zinhle Cindi, Iolanda Cioffi, Raffaela Ciuffreda, Rafael M Claro, Kaleb Coberly, Alyssa Columbus, Haley Comfort, Joao Conde, Michael H Criqui, Natália Cruz-Martins, Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernández, Sriharsha Dadana, Omid Dadras, Tukur Dahiru, Zhaoli Dai, Bronte Dalton, Giovanni Damiani, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Jai K Das, Saswati Das, Mohsen Dashti, Anna Dastiridou, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Kairat Davletov, Aklilu Tamire Debele, Shayom Debopadhaya, Somayeh Delavari, Ivan Delgado-Enciso, Dessalegn Demeke, Berecha Hundessa Demessa, Xinlei Deng, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Rupak Desai, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Arkadeep Dhali, Kuldeep Dhama, Meghnath Dhimal, Vishal R Dhulipala, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Diaz, Michael J Diaz, Adriana Dima, Delaney D Ding, M Ashworth Dirac, Thanh Chi Do, Thao Huynh Phuong Do, Camila Bruneli do Prado, Sushil Dohare, Wanyue Dong, Mario D'Oria, Wendel Mombaque dos Santos, Leila Doshmangir, Robert Kokou Dowou, Ashel Chelsea Dsouza, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Viola Dsouza, John Dube, Joe Duprey, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Senbagam Duraisamy, Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye, Sulagna Dutta, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Alireza Ebrahimi, Hisham Atan Edinur, Kristina Edvardsson, Ferry Efendi, Terje Andreas Eikemo, Michael Ekholuenetale, Maha El Tantawi, Noha Mousaad Elemam, Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary, Muhammed Elhadi, Legesse Tesfaye Elilo, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy, Mohamed A Elmonem, Mohammed Elshaer, Ibrahim Elsohaby, Amir Emami Zeydi, Luchuo Engelbert Bain, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Francesco Esposito, Kara Estep, Farshid Etaee, Natalia Fabin, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Saman Fahimi, Aliasghar Fakhri-Demeshghieh, Luca Falzone, Ali Faramarzi, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris, Sam Farmer, Andre Faro, Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi, Ali Fatehizadeh, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Pooria Fazeli, Valery L Feigin, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Abdullah Hamid Feroze, Pietro Ferrara, Nuno Ferreira, Getahun Fetensa, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Joanne Flavel, Nataliya A Foigt, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov, Behzad Foroutan, Matteo Foschi, Kayode Raphael Fowobaje, Kate Louise Francis, Alberto Freitas, Takeshi Fukumoto, John E Fuller, Blima Fux, Peter Andras Gaal, Muktar A Gadanya, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Yaseen Galali, Silvano Gallus, Aravind P Gandhi, Balasankar Ganesan, Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani, M.A. Garcia-Gordillo, Naval Garg, Rupesh K Gautam, Federica Gazzelloni, Semiu Olatunde Gbadamosi, Miglas W Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Brhane Gebremariam, Tesfay B B Gebremariam, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Yohannes Fikadu Geda, Simona Roxana Georgescu, Urge Gerema, Habtamu Geremew, Motuma Erena Getachew, Peter W Gething, MohammadReza Ghasemi, Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi, Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh, Fariba Ghassemi, Ramy Mohamed Ghazy, Sailaja Ghimire, Asadollah Gholamian, Ali Gholamrezanezhad, Mahsa Ghorbani, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Arun Digambarrao Ghuge, Artyom Urievich Gil, Tiffany K Gill, Matteo Giorgi, Alem Girmay, James C Glasbey, Laszlo Göbölös, Amit Goel, Ali Golchin, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Houman Goudarzi, Alessandra C Goulart, Anmol Goyal, Simon Matthew Graham, Michal Grivna, Shi-Yang Guan, Giovanni Guarducci, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Mesay Dechasa Gudeta, Stefano Guicciardi, Snigdha Gulati, David Gulisashvili, Damitha Asanga Gunawardane, Cui Guo, Anish Kumar Gupta, Bhawna Gupta, Manoj Kumar Gupta, Mohak Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vijai Kumar Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Annie Haakenstad, Farrokh Habibzadeh, Najah R Hadi, Nils Haep, Ramtin Hajibeygi, Sebastian Haller, Rabih Halwani, Randah R Hamadeh, Nadia M Hamdy, Sajid Hameed, Samer Hamidi, Qiuxia Han, Alexis J Handal, Graeme J Hankey, Md Nuruzzaman Haque, Josep Maria Haro, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Ikramul Hasan, Mohammad Jahid Hasan, S.M. Mahmudul Hasan, Hamidreza Hasani, Md Saquib Hasnain, Amr Hassan, Ikrama Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Hadi Hassankhani, Simon I Hay, Jeffrey J Hebert, Omar E Hegazi, Mohammad Heidari, Bartosz Helfer, Mehdi Hemmati, Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna, Claudiu Herteliu, Kamran Hessami, Kamal Hezam, Yuta Hiraike, Nguyen Quoc Hoan, Ramesh Holla, Nobuyuki Horita, Md Mahbub Hossain, Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mohamed Hsairi, Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh, Chengxi Hu, Junjie Huang, M Mamun Huda, Ayesha Humayun, Javid Hussain, Nawfal R Hussein, Hong-Han Huynh, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Mustapha Immurana, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Afrin Iqbal, Md. Rabiul Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Hiroyasu Iso, Gaetano Isola, Masao Iwagami, Mahalaxmi Iyer, Linda Merin J, Jalil Jaafari, Louis Jacob, Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh, Khushleen Jaggi, Kasra Jahankhani, Nader Jahanmehr, Haitham Jahrami, Akhil Jain, Nityanand Jain, Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Elham Jamshidi, Sabzali Javadov, Tahereh Javaheri, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Shubha Jayaram, Sun Ha Jee, Jayakumar Jeganathan, Anil K Jha, Ravi Prakash Jha, Heng Jiang, Mohammad Jokar, Jost B Jonas, Tamas Joo, Nitin Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Vaishali K, Billingsley Kaambwa, Abdulkareem Kabir, Ali Kabir, Hannaneh Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Rizwan Kalani, Leila R Kalankesh, Feroze Kaliyadan, Sanjay Kalra, Rajesh Kamath, Sagarika Kamath, Tanuj Kanchan, Edmund Wedam Kanmiki, Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi, Suthanthira Kannan S, Sushil Kumar Kansal, Rami S Kantar, Neeti Kapoor, Mehrdad Karajizadeh, Manoochehr Karami, Ibraheem M Karaye, Faizan Zaffar Kashoo, Hengameh Kasraei, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Molly B Kassel, Joonas H Kauppila, Foad Kazemi, sara Kazeminia, John H Kempen, Evie Shoshannah Kendal, Kamyab Keshtkar, Mohammad Keykhaei, Himanshu Khajuria, Amirmohammad Khalaji, Nauman Khalid, Anees Ahmed Khalil, Alireza Khalilian, Faham Khamesipour, Ajmal Khan, Asaduzzaman Khan, Ikramullah Khan, M Nuruzzaman Khan, Maseer Khan, Mohammad Jobair Khan, Moien AB Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi, Khaled Khatab, Armin Khavandegar, Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani, Feriha Fatima Khidri, Moein Khormali, Mohammad Ali Khosravi, Mahmood Khosrowjerdi, Wondwosen Teklesilasie Kidane, Zemene Demelash Kifle, Julie Sojin Kim, Min Seo Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Kasey E Kinzel, Girmay Tsegay Kiross, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Farzad Kompani, Gerbrand Koren, Oleksii Korzh, Soewarta Kosen, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Kewal Krishan, Varun Krishna, Vijay Krishnamoorthy, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Connor M Kubeisy, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Md Abdul Kuddus, Mohammed Kuddus, Ilari Kuitunen, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Harish Kumar, Satyajit Kundu, Kunle Rotimi Kunle, Om P Kurmi, Asep Kusnali, Dian Kusuma, Evans F Kyei, Ilias Kyriopoulos, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Muhammad Awwal Ladan, Lucie Laflamme, Chandrakant Lahariya, Daphne Teck Ching Lai, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Judit Lám, Demetris Lamnisos, Iván Landires, Francesco Lanfranchi, Berthold Langguth, Ariane Laplante-Lévesque, Heidi Jane Larson, Anders O Larsson, Savita Lasrado, Kamaluddin Latief, Kaveh Latifinaibin, Long Khanh Dao Le, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Trang Diep Thanh Le, Caterina Ledda, Munjae Lee, Paul H Lee, Seung Won Lee, Yo Han Lee, Gebretsadik Kiros Lema, Elvynna Leong, Temesgen L Lerango, An Li, Ming-Chieh Li, Shanshan Li, Wei Li, Xiaopan Li, Virendra S Ligade, Stephen S Lim, Ro-Ting Lin, Paulina A Lindstedt, Stefan Listl, Gang Liu, Jue Liu, Xiaofeng Liu, Xuefeng Liu, Yuewei Liu, Erand Llanaj, Rubén López-Bueno, Platon D Lopukhov, László Lorenzovici, Paulo A Lotufo, Jailos Lubinda, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Alessandra Lugo, Raimundas Lunevicius, Hengliang Lv, Zheng Feei Ma, Kelsey Lynn Maass, Monika Machoy, Áurea M Madureira-Carvalho, Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Azzam A Maghazachi, Soleiman Mahjoub, Mansour Adam Mahmoud, Azeem Majeed, Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Kashish Malhotra, Ahmad Azam Malik, Iram Malik, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A Mamun, Yosef Manla, Yasaman Mansoori, Ali Mansour, Borhan Mansouri, Zeinab Mansouri, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Joemer C Maravilla, Mirko Marino, Abdoljalal Marjani, Gabriel Martinez, Ramon Martinez-Piedra, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Miquel Martorell, Sharmeen Maryam, Roy Rillera Marzo, Alireza Masoudi, Jishanth Mattumpuram, Richard James Maude, Andrea Maugeri, Erin A May, Mahsa Mayeli, Maryam Mazaheri, John J McGrath, Martin McKee, Anna Laura Wensel McKowen, Susan A McLaughlin, Steven M McPhail, Rahul Mehra, Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Tesfahun Mekene Meto, Max Alberto Mendez Mendez-Lopez, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, George A Mensah, Alexios-Fotios A Mentis, Sultan Ayoub Meo, Mohsen Merati, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Abera M Mersha, Tomislav Mestrovic, Pouya Metanat, Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda, Sachith Mettananda, Adquate Mhlanga, Laurette Mhlanga, Tianyue Mi, Tomasz Miazgowski, Georgia Micha, Irmina Maria Michalek, Ted R Miller, Le Huu Nhat Minh, Mojgan Mirghafourvand, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Mizan Kiros Mirutse, Moonis Mirza, Roya Mirzaei, Ashim Mishra, Sanjeev Misra, Philip B Mitchell, Chaitanya Mittal, Babak Moazen, Abdalla Z Mohamed, Ahmed Ismail Mohamed, Jama Mohamed, Mouhand F H Mohamed, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Sakineh Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi, Soheil Mohammadi, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Mustapha Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Peyman Mokhtarzadehazar, Hossein Molavi Vardanjani, Sabrina Molinaro, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohammad Ali Moni, Maryam Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Paula Moraga, Rafael Silveira Moreira, Negar Morovatdar, Shane Douglas Morrison, Jakub Morze, Abbas Mosapour, Elias Mossialos, Rohith Motappa, Parsa Mousavi, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa, Sumaira Mubarik, Lorenzo Muccioli, Francesk Mulita, Kavita Munjal, Efrén Murillo-Zamora, Jonah Musa, Fungai Musaigwa, Ana-Maria Musina, Sathish Muthu, Saravanan Muthupandian, Muhammad Muzaffar, Woojae Myung, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gabriele Nagel, Pirouz Naghavi, Ganesh R Naik, Gurudatta Naik, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Firzan Nainu, Vinay Nangia, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Gustavo G Nascimento, Abdallah Y Naser, Mohammad Javad Nasiri, Zuhair S Natto, Javaid Nauman, Muhammad Naveed, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Vinod C Nayak, Rawlance Ndejjo, Sabina Onyinye Nduaguba, Hadush Negash, Chernet Tafere Negesse, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Chakib Nejjari, Samata Nepal, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Georges Nguefack-Tsague, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Dang H Nguyen, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Phuong The Nguyen, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Van Thanh Nguyen, Robina Khan Niazi, Yeshambel T Nigatu, Taxiarchis Konstantinos Nikolouzakis, Ali Nikoobar, Amin Reza Nikpoor, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi, Efaq Ali Noman, Shuhei Nomura, Mamoona Noreen, Nafise Noroozi, Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi, Mengistu H Nunemo, Virginia Nuñez-Samudio, Dieta Nurrika, Jerry John Nutor, Bogdan Oancea, Kehinde O Obamiro, Ismail A Odetokun, Nkechi Martina Odogwu, Martin James O'Donnell, Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade, James Odhiambo Oguta, In-Hwan Oh, Sylvester Reuben Okeke, Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Patrick Godwin Okwute, Andrew T Olagunju, Omotola O Olasupo, Matthew Idowu Olatubi, Gláucia Maria Moraes Oliveira, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Gideon Olamilekan Oluwatunase, Hany A Omar, Goran Latif Omer, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Michal Ordak, Orish Ebere Orisakwe, Verner N Orish, Doris V Ortega-Altamirano, Alberto Ortiz, Esteban Ortiz-Prado, Wael M S Osman, Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu, Olayinka Osuolale, Adrian Otoiu, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Amel Ouyahia, Guoqing Ouyang, Mayowa O Owolabi, Yaz Ozten, Mahesh Padukudru P A, Mohammad Taha Pahlevan Fallahy, Feng Pan, Hai-Feng Pan, Adrian Pana, Paramjot Panda, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan, Georgios D Panos, Leonidas D Panos, Ioannis Pantazopoulos, Anca Mihaela Pantea Stoian, Romil R Parikh, Seoyeon Park, Ashwaghosha Parthasarathi, Ava Pashaei, Roberto Passera, Hemal M Patel, Jay Patel, Shankargouda Patil, Dimitrios Patoulias, Venkata Suresh Patthipati, Uttam Paudel, Mihaela Paun, Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi, Spencer A Pease, Amy E Peden, Paolo Pedersini, Minjin Peng, Umberto Pensato, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Prince Peprah, Gavin Pereira, Mario F P Peres, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Norberto Perico, Simone Perna, Richard G Pestell, Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha, Hoang Tran Pham, Anil K Philip, Daniela Pierannunzio, Manon Pigeolet, David M Pigott, Evgenii Plotnikov, Dimitri Poddighe, Peter Pollner, Ramesh Poluru, Maarten J Postma, Ghazaleh Pourali, Akram Pourshams, Naeimeh Pourtaheri, Disha Prabhu, Sergio I Prada, Pranil Man Singh Pradhan, Manya Prasad, Akila Prashant, Bharathi M Purohit, Jagadeesh Puvvula, Nameer Hashim Qasim, Ibrahim Qattea, Deepthi R, Mehrdad Rabiee Rad, Amir Radfar, Venkatraman Radhakrishnan, Pourya Raee, Hadi Raeisi Shahraki, Alireza Rafiei, Seyedeh Niloufar Rafiei Alavi, Cat Raggi, Pankaja Raghav Raghav, Fakher Rahim, Md Jillur Rahim, Md. Mosfequr Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Mosiur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Vahid Rahmanian, Masoud Rahmati, Niloufar Rahnavard, Pramila Rai, Diego Raimondo, Ali Rajabpour-Sanati, Prashant Rajput, Prasanna Ram, Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy, Juwel Rana, Kritika Rana, Shailendra Singh Rana, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Nemanja Rancic, Amey Rane, Shubham Ranjan, Chythra R Rao, Indu Ramachandra Rao, Deepthi Rapaka, Davide Rasella, Sina Rashedi, Vahid Rashedi, Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi, Azad Rasul, Zubair Ahmed Ratan, Giridhara Rathnaiah Babu, Santosh Kumar Rauniyar, Nakul Ravikumar, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Reza Rawassizadeh, Bharat Rawlley, Murali Mohan Rama Krishna Reddy, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Bhageerathy Reshmi, Nazila Rezaei, Aida Rezaei Nejad, Mohsen Rezaeian, Abanoub Riad, Mavra A Riaz, Jennifer Rickard, Reza Rikhtegar, Hannah Elizabeth Robinson-Oden, Célia Fortuna Rodrigues, Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez, Ravi Rohilla, Debby Syahru Romadlon, Luca Ronfani, Himanshu Sekhar Rout, Bedanta Roy, Nitai Roy, Priyanka Roy, Enrico Rubagotti, Guilherme de Andrade Ruela, Susan Fred Rumisha, Tilleye Runghien, Manjula S, Chandan S N, Aly M A Saad, Zahra Saadatian, Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad, Morteza SaberiKamarposhti, Siamak Sabour, Fatos Sada, Basema Saddik, Bashdar Abuzed Sadee, Ehsan Sadeghi, Erfan Sadeghi, Mohammad Reza Saeb, Umar Saeed, Sher Zaman Safi, Dominic Sagoe, Manika Saha, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Soumya Swaroop Sahoo, Monalisha Sahu, Zahra Saif, Joseph W Sakshaug, Payman Salamati, Afeez Abolarinwa Salami, Mohamed A Saleh, Marwa Rashad Salem, Mohammed Z Y Salem, Sohrab Salimi, Sara Samadzadeh, Yoseph Leonardo Samodra, Vijaya Paul Samuel, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Nima Sanadgol, Francesca Sanna, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Haaris Saqib, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Aswini Saravanan, Babak Saravi, Yaser Sarikhani, Tanmay Sarkar, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Gargi Sachin Sarode, Sachin C Sarode, Arash Sarveazad, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Anudeep Sathyanarayan, Abu Sayeed, Md Abu Sayeed, Nikolaos Scarmeas, Winfried Schlee, Art Schuermans, David C Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Siddharthan Selvaraj, Pallav Sengupta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Dragos Serban, Edson Serván-Mori, Yashendra Sethi, SeyedAhmad SeyedAlinaghi, Seyed Arsalan Seyedi, Allen Seylani, Mahan Shafie, Jaffer Shah, Pritik A Shah, Ataollah Shahbandi, Samiah Shahid, Moyad Jamal Shahwan, Ahme
The Global Retinoblastoma Outcome Study: a prospective, cluster-based analysis of 4064 patients from 149 countries
No full textBackground Retinoblastoma is the most common intraocular cancer worldwide. There is some evidence to suggest that major differences exist in treatment outcomes for children with retinoblastoma from different regions, but these differences have not been assessed on a global scale. We aimed to report 3-year outcomes for children with retinoblastoma globally and to investigate factors associated with survival. Methods We did a prospective cluster-based analysis of treatment-naive patients with retinoblastoma who were diagnosed between Jan 1,2017, and Dec 31,2017, then treated and followed up for 3 years. Patients were recruited from 260 specialised treatment centres worldwide. Data were obtained from participating centres on primary and additional treatments, duration of follow-up, metastasis, eye globe salvage, and survival outcome. We analysed time to death and time to enucleation with Cox regression models. Findings The cohort included 4064 children from 149 countries. The median age at diagnosis was 23.2 months (IQR 11.0-36.5). Extraocular tumour spread (cT4 of the cTNMH classification) at diagnosis was reported in five (0.8%) of 636 children from high-income countries, 55 (5.4%) of 1027 children from upper-middle-income countries, 342 (19. 7%) of 1738 children from lower-middle-income countries, and 196 (42.9%) of 457 children from low-income countries. Enudeation surgery was available for all children and intravenous chemotherapy was available for 4014 (98.8%) of 4064 children. The 3-year survival rate was 99.5% (95% CI 98.8-100.0) for children from high-income countries, 91.2% (89.5-93.0) for children from upper-middle-income countries, 80.3% (78.3-82.3) for children from lower-middle-income countries, and 57.3% (524-63-0) for children from low-income countries. On analysis, independent factors for worse survival were residence in low-income countries compared to high-income countries (hazard ratio 16.67; 95% CI 4.76-50.00), cT4 advanced tumour compared to cT1 (8.98; 4.44-18.18), and older age at diagnosis in children up to 3 years (1.38 per year; 1.23-1.56). For children aged 3-7 years, the mortality risk decreased slightly (p=0.0104 for the change in slope). Interpretation This study, estimated to include approximately half of all new retinoblastoma cases worldwide in 2017, shows profound inequity in survival of children depending on the national income level of their country of residence. In high-income countries, death from retinoblastoma is rare, whereas in low-income countries estimated 3-year survival is just over 50%. Although essential treatments are available in nearly all countries, early diagnosis and treatment in low-income countries are key to improving survival outcomes. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Y
Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018
Get PDFBACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15–59 years across SSA. METHODS: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. CONCLUSIONS: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-022-02639-z
Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018
Get PDFAnemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations
Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990–2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Get PDFBackgroundAs set out in Sustainable Development Goal 3.3, the target date for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat is 2030. Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends and monitor global progress towards HIV incidence and mortality reduction goals. In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV in 204 countries and territories and forecast HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2050 to allow countries to plan for a sustained response with an increasing number of people living with HIV globally. MethodsWe used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990–2021). We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data. We calibrated a mechanistic simulation of HIV infection and natural history to available data to estimate HIV burden from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts to 2050 through projection of all simulation inputs into the future. Historical outcomes (1990–2021) were simulated at the 1000-draw level to support propagation of uncertainty and reporting of uncertainty intervals (UIs). Our approach to forecasting utilised the transmission rate as the basis for projection, along with new rate-of-change projections of ART coverage. Additionally, we introduced two new metrics to our reporting: prevalence of unsuppressed viraemia (PUV), which represents the proportion of the population without a suppressed level of HIV (viral load <1000 copies per mL), and period lifetime probability of HIV acquisition, which quantifies the hypothetical probability of acquiring HIV for a synthetic cohort, a simulated population that is aged from birth to death through the set of age-specific incidence rates of a given time period. FindingsGlobal new HIV infections decreased by 21·9% (95% UI 13·1–28·8) between 2010 and 2021, from 2·11 million (2·02–2·25) in 2010 to 1·65 million (1·48–1·82) in 2021. HIV-related deaths decreased by 39·7% (33·7–44·5), from 1·19 million (1·07–1·37) in 2010 to 718 000 (669 000–785 000) in 2021. The largest declines in both HIV incidence and mortality were in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, super-regions including central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and north Africa and the Middle East experienced increasing HIV incidence and mortality rates. The number of people living with HIV reached 40·0 million (38·0–42·4) in 2021, an increase from 29·5 million (28·1–31·0) in 2010. The lifetime probability of HIV acquisition remains highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, where it declined from its 1995 peak of 21·8% (20·1–24·2) to 8·7% (7·5–10·7) in 2021. Four of the seven GBD super-regions had a lifetime probability of less than 1% in 2021. In 2021, sub-Saharan Africa had the highest PUV of 999·9 (857·4–1154·2) per 100 000 population, but this was a 64·5% (58·8–69·4) reduction in PUV from 2003 to 2021. In the same period, PUV increased in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia by 116·1% (8·0–218·2). Our forecasts predict a continued global decline in HIV incidence and mortality, with the number of people living with HIV peaking at 44·4 million (40·7–49·8) by 2039, followed by a gradual decrease. In 2025, we projected 1·43 million (1·29–1·59) new HIV infections and 615 000 (567 000–680 000) HIV-related deaths, suggesting that the interim 2025 targets for reducing these figures are unlikely to be achieved. Furthermore, our forecasted results indicate that few countries will meet the 2030 target for reducing HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths by 90% from 2010 levels. InterpretationOur forecasts indicate that continuation of current levels of HIV control are not likely to attain ambitious incidence and mortality reduction targets by 2030, and more than 40 million people globally will continue to require lifelong ART for decades into the future. The global community will need to show sustained and substantive efforts to make the progress needed to reach and sustain the end of AIDS as a public threat. FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
Global, regional, and national progress towards the 2030 global nutrition targets and forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Get PDFBackground: The six global nutrition targets (GNTs) related to low birthweight, exclusive breastfeeding, child growth (ie, wasting, stunting, and overweight), and anaemia among females of reproductive age were chosen by the World Health Assembly in 2012 as key indicators of maternal and child health, but there has yet to be a comprehensive report on progress for the period 2012 to 2021. We aimed to evaluate levels, trends, and observed-to-expected progress in prevalence and attributable burden from 2012 to 2021, with prevalence projections to 2050, in 204 countries and territories. Methods: The prevalence and attributable burden of each target indicator were estimated by age group, sex, and year in 204 countries and territories from 2012 to 2021 in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, the most comprehensive assessment of causes of death, disability, and risk factors to date. Country-specific relative performance to date was evaluated with a Bayesian meta-regression model that compares prevalence to expected values based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of societal development status. Target progress was forecasted from 2021 up to 2050 by modelling past trends with meta-regression using a combination of key quantities and then extrapolating future projections of those quantities. Findings: In 2021, a few countries had already met some of the GNTs: five for exclusive breastfeeding, four for stunting, 96 for child wasting, and three for child overweight, and none met the target for low birthweight or anaemia in females of reproductive age. Since 2012, the annualised rates of change (ARC) in the prevalence of child overweight increased in 201 countries and territories and ARC in the prevalence of anaemia in females of reproductive age decreased considerably in 26 countries. Between 2012 and 2021, SDI was strongly associated with indicator prevalence, apart from exclusive breastfeeding (|r-|=0·46-0·86). Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa had a decrease in the prevalence of multiple indicators that was more rapid than expected on the basis of SDI (the differences between observed and expected ARCs for child stunting and wasting were -0·5% and -1·3%, respectively). The ARC in the attributable burden of low birthweight, child stunting, and child wasting decreased faster than the ARC of the prevalence for each in most low-income and middle-income countries. In 2030, we project that 94 countries will meet one of the six targets, 21 countries will meet two targets, and 89 countries will not meet any targets. We project that seven countries will meet the target for exclusive breastfeeding, 28 for child stunting, and 101 for child wasting, and no countries will meet the targets for low birthweight, child overweight, and anaemia. In 2050, we project that seven additional countries will meet the target for exclusive breastfeeding, five for low birthweight, 96 for child stunting, nine for child wasting, and one for child overweight, and no countries are projected to meet the anaemia target. Interpretation: Based on current levels and past trends, few GNTs will be met by 2030. Major reductions in attributable burden for exclusive breastfeeding and anthropometric indicators should be recognised as huge scientific and policy successes, but the comparative lack of progress in reducing the prevalence of each, along with stagnant anaemia in women of reproductive age and widespread increases in child overweight, suggests a tenuous status quo. Continued investment in preventive and treatment efforts for acute childhood illness is crucial to prevent backsliding. Parallel development of effective treatments, along with commitment to multisectoral, long-term policies to address the determinants and causes of suboptimal nutrition, are sorely needed to gain ground. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
