80 research outputs found
Analysing the resilience of agricultural production systems with ResiPy, the Python production resilience estimation package
No full textWe present ResiPy, a Python object-oriented software to compute the annual production resilience indicator. This indicator can be applied to different anthropic and natural systems, e.g., agricultural production, natural vegetation and water resources, to quantify their stabilities and the risk of adverse events. We propose an illustrative application of ResiPy to agricultural production in Europe, expressed in economic terms. After estimating the single-country or single-crop resilience, we evaluate the overall resilience of diversified production systems, composed of different crops and different cultivation areas. ResiPy also includes a powerful graphical tool to visually estimate the impact of diversity on complex production systems. The robustness of the indicator and the simplicity of the code ensure its effective applicability in many fields and with different datasets
Rise and fall of vegetation annual primary production resilience to climate variability projected by a large ensemble of Earth System Models’ simulations
No full textClimate change is affecting natural ecosystems and society. Anticipating its impacts on vegetation resilience is critical to estimate the ecosystems’ response to global changes and the reliability of the related ecosystem services, to support mitigation actions, and to define proper adaptation plans. Here, we compute the Annual Production Resilience Indicator from gross primary production (GPP) data simulated by a large ensemble of state-of-the-art Earth System Models involved in the last Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the Sustainability (Taking the Green Road) and Middle of the Road scenarios (ssp126 and ssp245), the areas where vegetation shows increasing GPP resilience are wider than the areas with decreasing resilience. The situation drastically reverses in the Fossil-fuel Development (Taking the Highway) scenario (ssp585). Among the larger countries, Brazil is exposed to the highest risk of experiencing years with anomalously low GPP, especially in the Taking the Highway scenario
Rises and falls of vegetation annual primary production resilience to climate variability projected by a large ensemble of Earth System Models' simulations
No full textClimate change is affecting natural ecosystems and society. Anticipating its impacts on vegetation resilience is critical to estimate the ecosystems' response to global changes and the reliability of the related ecosystem services, to support mitigation actions, and to define proper adaptation plans. Here, we compute the Annual Production Resilience Indicator from gross primary production (GPP) data simulated by a large ensemble of state-of-the-art Earth System Models involved in the last Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the Sustainability (Taking the Green Road) and Middle of the Road scenarios (ssp126 and ssp245), the areas where vegetation shows increasing GPP resilience are wider than the areas with decreasing resilience. The situation drastically reverses in the Fossil-fuel Development (Taking the Highway) scenario (ssp585). Among the larger countries, Brazil is exposed to the highest risk of experiencing years with anomalously low GPP, especially in the Taking the Highway scenario.JRC.D.5 - Food Securit
Corrigendum: Rise and fall of vegetation annual primary production resilience to climate variability projected by a large ensemble of Earth System Models’ simulations (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 105001)
No full textAnalysing the resilience of agricultural production systems with ResiPy, the Python production resilience estimation package
No full textWe present ResiPy, a Python object-oriented software to compute the annual production resilience indicator. This indicator can be applied to different anthropic and natural systems, e.g., agricultural production, natural vegetation and water resources, to quantify their stabilities and the risk of adverse events. We propose an illustrative application of ResiPy to agricultural production in Europe, expressed in economic terms. After estimating the single-country or single-crop resilience, we evaluate the overall resilience of diversified production systems, composed of different crops and different cultivation areas. ResiPy also includes a powerful graphical tool to visually estimate the impact of diversity on complex production systems. The robustness of the indicator and the simplicity of the code ensure its effective applicability in many fields and with different datasets.JRC.D.5 - Food Securit
JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook - Crop monitoring European neighbourhood - Kazakhstan, October 2024
No full textMild temperatures and well-distributed above-average rainfall provided excellent conditions for yield formation of spring cereals in Kazakhstan. Wet conditions around harvesting raised some concerns, but overall progress of harvesting has been adequate. The current production forecast for wheat and barley is more than 30% above the 5-year average and more than 50% above last year’s level.JRC.D.5 - Food Securit
JRC MARS Bulletin - Global outlook - Crop monitoring European neighbourhood - Russia, September 2024
No full textHot, dry, and overly wet conditions have made an end to several years of (near-)record-high yields of winter cereals and grain maize in Russia. In addition, overly wet conditions around harvesting has raised concerns about grain quality of spring cereals. Our current production forecast for wheat is 11% below last year’s level. The forecast for grain maize is 24% below the level of 2023.JRC.D.5 - Food Securit
Monte Carlo studies for the optimisation of the Cherenkov Telescope Array layout
No full textThe Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) is the major next-generation observatory for ground-based very-high-energy gamma-ray astronomy. It will improve the sensitivity of current ground-based instruments by a factor of five to twenty, depending on the energy, greatly improving both their angular and energy resolutions over four decades in energy (from 20 GeV to 300 TeV). This achievement will be possible by using tens of imaging Cherenkov telescopes of three successive sizes. They will be arranged into two arrays, one per hemisphere, located on the La Palma island (Spain) and in Paranal (Chile). We present here the optimised and final telescope arrays for both CTA sites, as well as their foreseen performance, resulting from the analysis of three different large-scale Monte Carlo productions
JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, November 2019 Vol. 27 No. 11
No full textThe November issue of the JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe, published today, presents wetter-than-usual conditions in large parts of northern and western Europe for October and early November, while in the south east dry and warm weather persisted.
Frequent and abundant rainfall continued to delay field operations in France, Italy, Benelux countries, the British Isles, northern Germany, and southern Sweden over the period of review (1 October to 20 November 2019).
Rainfall was particularly intense in southern France and northern and central Italy.
While the sowing campaign of winter cereals has been practically completed in central Europe, some obstacles to sowing, emergence, and crop establishment in the field remain in the overly wet regions of western and northern Europe, as well as in Italy.
In Spain, Portugal and Greece, sowing has progressed fairly well.
By contrast, the central Balkan region, large parts of Turkey and Ukraine, the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula, and western Morocco experienced a lack of rainfall, with less than half the long-term average recorded.
Eastern and south-eastern Europe were also affected by extraordinarily warm weather.
These conditions hampered sowing and continue to affect crop establishment in southern Romania and northern Bulgaria.JRC.D.5 - Food Securit
JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe - October 2023 - Vol. 31 No 10
No full textThis edition of the JRC MARS Bulletin reports a downward revision of the yield forecast for grain maize and sunflowers at EU level, which is mainly due to a worsened outlook for summer crops in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. The yield forecasts for other summer crops, were revised slightly upward at EU level, which is mainly due to the favourably warm first-half-of autumn combined with adequate soil moisture conditions in most of the northern half of Europe.JRC.D.5 - Food Securit
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