875 research outputs found
Unpacking Economic Uncertainty: Measuring the Firm, Sector and Aggregate Components
Get PDFWe introduce a novel method for measuring economic uncertainty at the firm, sector, and aggregate levels using sales volatility and validate it by comparison with existing macroeconomic uncertainty measures. We use Compustat firms data in the period 2000-2022 to construct our uncertainty measures for the U.S. economy. Our findings highlight that 1) macroeconomic conditions are the predominant source of firms’ uncertainty, 2) diverse firm traits yield notable heterogeneity, and 3) the manufacturing sector exhibits the highest uncertainty among sectors. Our findings shed light on the importance of firm and sectoral heterogeneity in studying uncertainty and its effects on economic activit
(Just) first time lucky? The impact of single versus multiple bank lending relationships on firms and banks' behavior
Get PDFThe widespread evidence of multiple bank lending relationships in credit markets suggests that firms are interested in setting up a diversity of banking links. However, it is hard to know from the empirical data whether a firm's observed number of lenders is symptomatic of financial constraints or rather a well-designed strategy. By setting up a model and testing it in a controlled laboratory experiment we are able to uncover the conditions favoring multiple versus single lending strategies of borrowers, as well as the probability to get funding from lenders. We find that borrowers adjust the way they signal their trustworthiness according to the experimental design: they do so by choosing a single lending strategy when the asymmetry of informations is high. Multiple lending is therefore strategically chosen by dishonest borrowers. Instead, when relationship building is possible, the single lending choice reinforces the positive effect of repeatedly interacting with the same lender. In this case, multiple lending is related to borrowers' financial constraints. Finally, when information upon borrowers' behavior is made available, lenders are more likely to punish free-riding behaviors than simple default due to project failure
Threats and opportunities in the digital era: Automation spikes and employment dynamics
Get PDFThis paper investigates the change in worker flows (i.e. net growth, but also hiring and separation rates) around an investment in automation-intensive goods and, within firms, across occupational categories. Resorting to an integrated dataset encompassing detailed information on firms, their imports, and employer-employee data for French manufacturing employers over the period 2002–2015, we identify ‘automation spikes’ using imports of capital goods embedding automation technologies. Even after controlling for firms’ non-random selection into automation, we find that automation spikes are linked to an increase in firms’ contemporaneous net employment growth rate, jointly explained by a higher hiring rate and a lower separation rate. Furthermore, we find that automation spikes are not associated with significant changes in the composition of the workforce (in terms of 1-digit and 2-digit occupational categories, and routine-intensive vs. non routine-intensive jobs)
Unconventional monetary policies in an agent-based model with mark-to-market standards
No full textWe employ an agent-based model to shed light on the macroeconomic effects of accounting principles, unconventional monetary policies, and of their possible interactions. If mark-to-market accounting standards may entail positive feedbacks which amplify economic or financial shocks, unconventional policies may introduce negative feedbacks that might dampen instabilities in financial and real markets. For these reasons, we jointly study these two sets of policies by employing a modified version of the Schumpeter meeting Keynes (K+S) macroeconomic agent-based model. Our results confirm that, due to its pro-cyclical nature, the mark-to-market accounting standard amplifies credit cycles, generating more instability with respect to a simulated economy wherein the historical accounting principle is employed. In contrast, unconventional monetary policy is counter-cyclical and it improves macroeconomic indicators. Finally, we study a scenario wherein mark-to-market accounting and unconventional monetary policy interact. We find that unconventional monetary policy can counterbalance the negative effects brought about by the application of mark-to-market accounting. Our results suggest that unconventional monetary policy instruments should not be considered as temporary interventions to be employed only during crisis periods. They should be part of the toolbox of central banks also in normal times
For whom the bell tolls: the firm-level effects of automation on wage and gender inequality
Get PDFThis paper investigates the impact of investment in automation- and AI- related goods on within-firm wage inequality in the French economy during the period 2002-2017. We document that most of wage inequality in France is accounted for by differences among workers belonging to the same firm, rather than by differences between sectors, firms, and occupations. Using an event-study approach on a sample of firms importing automation and AI-related goods, we find that spike events related to the adoption of automation- or AI-related capital goods are not followed by an increase in within-firm wage nor in gender inequality. Instead, wages increase by 1% three years after the events at different percentiles of the distribution. Our findings are not linked to a rent-sharing behavior of firms obtaining productivity gains from automation or AI adoption. Instead, if the wage gains do not differ across workers along the wage distribution, worker heterogeneity is still present. Indeed, aligned with the framework in Abowd et al. (1999b), most of the overall wage increase is due to the hiring of new employees. This adds to previous findings showing picture of a ‘labor friendly’ effect of the latest wave of new technologies within adopting firms
La descrizione delle risorse bibliografiche in linked data
No full textThe article is an appendix of the volume Come lavorare con Wikidata in biblioteca = How to work with Wikidata in the library, written by Alessandra Boccone and Tania Maio, published by Editrice Bibliografica in April 2021. In this article, after a brief introduction to Wikidata and to the construction of an element, the tables of the WikiProject Books and Periodicals are reported. They have been translated, revised and expanded by the author, for the benefit of librarians who wish to approach the creation of items of bibliographic interest, such as authors, monographs, journals, articles in linked open data. It ends with a brief reflection on the possibilities offered by Wikidata in the field of authority control
The Short- and Long-Run Damages of Fiscal Austerity: Keynes beyond Schumpeter
No full textIn this work, we employ the keynes+schumpeter (k+s) agent-based model (dosi et al., 2010, 2013, 2015) to compare short- and long-run effects of keynesian fiscal policies vis-à-vis austerity rules.keywordsbusiness cyclefiscal policypublic debtliquid assetloan lossthese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves
. 1096 Año 22 (2023) septiembre. El Tlacuache
No full textLas festividades dan cuenta de una diversidad de formas de relaciones sociales y de vinculación social con el territorio. Se ha destacado el papel que han tenido para generar momentos de convivencia y cooperación colectiva. Las personas brindan a la comunidad trabajo, dinero, productos y/o aportan capital social (es decir, facilitar algún trámite o el uso de algún espacio en la localidad).- Territorialidad y festividad. Celebración a Santo Domingo de Guzmán en Oaxtepec por Tania Alejandra Ramírez Rocha y Patricia Ramírez Ramírez.Jaripeo. Fotografía: Patricia Ramírez Ramírez, Oaxtepec, Morelos, 2023
Micro and macro policies in the Keynes+Schumpeter evolutionary models
Get PDFThis paper presents the family of the Keynes+Schumpeter (K+S, cf. Dosi et al, J Econ Dyn Control 34 1748–1767 2010, J Econ Dyn Control 37 1598–1625 2013, J Econ Dyn Control 52 166–189 2015) evolutionary agent-based models, which study the effects of a rich ensemble of innovation, industrial dynamics and macroeconomic policies on the long-term growth and short-run fluctuations of the economy. The K+S models embed the Schumpeterian growth paradigm into a complex system of imperfect coordination among heterogeneous interacting firms and banks, where Keynesian (demand-related) and Minskian (credit cycle) elements feed back into the meso and macro dynamics. The model is able to endogenously generate long-run growth together with business cycles and major crises. Moreover, it reproduces a long list of macroeconomic and microeconomic stylized facts. Here, we discuss a series of experiments on the role of policies affecting i) innovation, ii) industry dynamics, iii) demand and iv) income distribution. Our results suggest the presence of strong complementarities between Schumpeterian (technological) and Keynesian (demand-related) policies in ensuring that the economic system follows a path of sustained stable growth and employment
Three green financial policies to address climate risks
No full textWhich policies can increase the resilience of the financial system to climate risks? Recent evidence on the significant impacts of climate change and natural disasters on firms, banks and other financial institutions call for a prompt policy response. In this paper, we employ a macro-financial agent-based model to study the interaction between climate change, credit and economic dynamics and test a mix of policy interventions. We first show that financial constraints exacerbate the impact of climate shocks on the economy while, at the same time, climate damages to firms make the banking sector more prone to crises. We find that credit provision can both increase firms’ productivity and their financial fragility, with such a trade-off being exacerbated by the effects of climate change. We then test a set of “green” finance policies addressing these risks, while fostering climate change mitigation: i) green Basel-type capital requirements, ii) green public guarantees to credit, and iii) carbon-risk adjustment in credit ratings. All the policies reduce carbon emissions and the resulting climate impacts, though moderately. However, their effects on financial and real dynamics is not straightforwardly positive. Some combinations of policies fuel credit booms, exacerbating financial instability and increasing public debt. We show that the combination of the three policies leads to a virtuous cycle of (mild) emission reductions, stable financial sector and high economic growth. Additional tools would be needed to fully adapt to climate change. Hence, our results point to the need to complement financial policies cooling down climate-related risks with mitigation policies curbing emissions from real economic activities
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