1,720,979 research outputs found
Invasive mosquito surveillance in the United Kingdom 2020 to 2024: First detection of Aedes aegypti eggs in the UK and further detection of Aedes albopictus
Full text linkHere, we provide an update on invasive mosquito surveillance activities coordinated by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) between May 2020 and November 2024. Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti are invasive mosquitoes and not currently established in the UK. Both are vectors of various arboviruses including emerging pathogens such as dengue. Therefore, their introduction into the UK poses a threat to public health. In 2024, vector surveillance to detect and limit the establishment of invasive mosquito species involved 1070 ovitraps at 117 localities across England, Wales and Northern Ireland, expanding from 58 in 2019. Ovitraps at seaports, airports, and highway transport hubs were examined every two weeks, between May and October, each year. In 2020, 2021 and 2022, no Ae. albopictus specimens were detected. In September 2023, Aedes aegypti eggs were detected in a freight storage facility near Heathrow Airport. Identification of these eggs was confirmed morphologically and molecularly. Targeted enhanced surveillance yielded no further detections, suggesting an isolated incursion. In August 2024, Ae. albopictus was detected for the first time since 2019. Four eggs were found in an ovitrap at a service station along the M20 motorway in Kent, in South East England. In accordance with existing national contingency planning, the local authority collaborated with the landowner and UKHSA to conduct larval source reduction, and UKHSA conducted enhanced surveillance. There were no further detections of eggs or adult Ae. albopictus mosquitoes during the enhanced surveillance period. This project is complemented by UKHSA’s broader mosquito surveillance efforts, including deploying adult mosquito traps in 307 localities across England and Wales, and a mosquito recording scheme that accepts submissions from the public. Combined, our findings suggest that future incursions of invasive mosquitoes in the UK are likely and undertaking enhanced surveillance is key to identifying and reducing the likelihood of their establishment
Association between HTLV-1/2 infection and COVID-19 severity in a migrant Shipibo-Konibo population in Lima, Peru.
Full text linkObjectivesThe migrant community of the Shipibo-Konibo indigenous people in Lima, Peru were extremely vulnerable during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, infection with human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 and 2 (HTLV-1/2) is endemic in this population causing immunosuppression. The aim of the study was to describe the association between HTLV-1/2 infection and the clinical severity of COVID-19.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional descriptive study involving a survey of adult Shipibo-Konibo indigenous migrants residing in Cantagallo-Rímac who were identified as suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19. Blood samples were collected for SARS-CoV-2 antibody and HTLV-1/2 ELISA testing. A confirmatory Western Blot test was performed for those with a positive ELISA test.ResultsA total of 182 individuals were surveyed and sampled. No significant association was found between HTLV-1/2 infection and the clinical severity of COVID-19. The prevalence of HTLV-1/2 was 8.8% (95%CI: 5.0-14.1) with Western Blot. Age was the only statistically significant risk factor for developing a more severe form of COVID-19 (OR: 1.03; 95%CI: 1.00-1.06; p = 0.032).ConclusionsThere was no association found between HTLV-1/2 infection and the clinical severity of COVID-19. The prevalence of HTLV-1/2 infection in the Shipibo-Konibo population is high and warrants continuous monitoring in the advent of other infectious disease outbreaks and the development of HTLV-associated comorbidities
Gaps and opportunities for data systems and economics to support priority setting for climate-sensitive infectious diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: A rapid scoping review.
Full text linkClimate change alters risks associated with climate-sensitive infectious diseases (CSIDs) with pandemic potential. This poses additional threats to already vulnerable populations, further amplified by social factors such as gender inequalities. Currently, critical evidence gaps, along with inadequate institutional and governance mechanisms, hinder African states' ability to prevent, detect and respond to CSIDs. Effective responses require transparent and evidence-based decision-making processes, supported by fit-for-purpose data systems and robust economic analyses. The aim of this study was to explore the role of data systems and economics in priority setting for CSID pandemic preparedness in sub-Saharan Africa. We conducted a rapid scoping review following PRISMA-ScR guidelines. A literature search was performed across six bibliographic databases in November 2023. A list of 14 target CSIDs was produced, informed by the World Health Organization's Public Health Emergencies of International Concern and R&D Blueprint Pathogen lists, and a database of CSIDs. Studies were included if published between 2010 and 2023, were relevant to sub-Saharan Africa, pandemic preparedness, and a target CSID, and applied or assessed economic evaluations or data systems. Extracted data were synthesised using bibliometric analysis, topic categorisation, and a narrative synthesis including the application of a gender lens. We identified 68 relevant studies. Data system studies (n = 50) showed broad coverage across target CSIDs and the WHO AFRO region but also a high degree of heterogeneity, which may indicate a lack of clearly defined standards or research priorities. Economic studies (n = 18) primarily focused on COVID-19 or Ebola and mostly originated from South Africa. Both data system and economic studies identified limited interoperability across sectors and showed a notable absence of gendered considerations. These gaps present important opportunities to strengthen priority setting during pandemics and may contribute to improved and equitable health outcomes
Epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses of public SARS-CoV-2 data from Malawi
Full text linkThe COVID-19 pandemic has had varying impacts across different regions, necessitating localised data-driven responses. SARS-CoV-2 was first identified in a person in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and spread globally within three months. While there were similarities in the pandemic’s impact across regions, key differences motivated systematic quantitative analysis of diverse geographical data to inform responses. Malawi reported its first COVID-19 case on 2 April 2020 but had significantly less data than Global North countries to inform its response. Here, we present a modelling analysis of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology and phylogenetics in Malawi between 2 April 2020 and 19 October 2022. We carried out this analysis using open-source tools and open data on confirmed cases, deaths, geography, demographics, and viral genomics. R was used for data visualisation, while Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) estimated incidence trends, growth rates, and doubling times. Phylogenetic analysis was conducted using IQ-TREE, TreeTime, and interactive tree of life. This analysis identifies five major COVID-19 waves in Malawi, driven by different lineages: (1) Early variants, (2) Beta, (3) Delta, (4) Omicron BA.1, and (5) Other Omicron. While the Alpha variant was present, it did not cause a major wave, likely due to competition from the more infectious Delta variant, since Alpha circulated in Malawi when Beta was phasing out and Delta emerging. Case Fatality Ratios were higher for Delta, and lower for Omicron, than for earlier lineages. Phylogeny reveals separation of the tree into major lineages as would be expected, and early emergence of Omicron, as is consistent with proximity to the likely origin of this variant. Both variant prevalence and overall rates of confirmed cases and confirmed deaths were highly geographically heterogeneous. We suggest that real-time analyses should be considered in Malawi and other countries, where similar computational and data resources are available
The utility of infectious disease modelling in informing decisions for outbreak response: A scoping review.
Full text linkInfectious disease modelling plays a critical role in guiding decisions during outbreaks. However, ongoing debates over the utility of these models highlight the need for a deeper understanding of their exact role in decision-making. In this scoping review we sought to fill this gap, focusing on challenges and facilitators of translating modelling insights into actionable policies. We searched the Ovid database to identify modelling studies that included an assessment of utility in informing policy and decision-making from January 2019 onwards. We further identified studies based on expert judgement. Results were analysed descriptively. The study was registered on the Open Science Framework platform. Out of 4007 screened and 12 additionally suggested studies, a total of 33 studies were selected for our review. None of the included articles provided objective assessments of utility but rather reflected subjectively on modelling efforts and highlighted individual key aspects for utility. 27 of the included articles considered the COVID-19 pandemic and 25 of the articles were from high-income countries. Most modelling efforts aimed to forecast outbreaks and evaluate mitigation strategies. Participatory stakeholder engagement and collaboration between academia, policy, and non-governmental organizations were identified as key facilitators of the modelling-for-decisions pathway. However, barriers such as data inconsistencies and quality, uncoordinated decision-making, limited funding and misinterpretation of uncertainties hindered effective use of modelling in decision-making. While our review identifies crucial facilitators and barriers for the modelling-for-decisions pathway, the lack of rigorous assessments of the utility of modelling for decisions highlights the need to systematically evaluate the impact of infectious disease modelling on decisions in future
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Effect of Human Movement on the Spread of COVID-19 in Thailand
Full text linkIn December 2019, the first case of coronavirus (COVID-19) was reported in Wuhan, China. The first case reported in Thailand was in Bangkok during January 2020. The first large outbreak occurred at Bangkok’s Lumpini Stadium in March. Those who were infected had visited the stadium for a boxing tournament. Many people left Bangkok and moved to other provinces to escape possible infection as the number of cases in Bangkok began to increase. This led to further infections in the other provinces. In this study, we estimated the number of exported cases from Bangkok to other provinces in Thailand during April 2020 using the probability of infection and travel volume from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports in April 2019. Our results found that the total estimated cases were 1,882 (95% credible interval 1,781-1,980), which was more than twice the number of actual reported cases. In this study, we found that when the travelling rate was reduced to 60%, the total estimated cases corresponded to the reported cases (740, 95% credible interval 684-795). We also found that the estimated cases depended on the rate of travel, thus decreasing the travelling rate led to a fall in the number of cases. The findings show how the reduction in traveller numbers can reduce the number of cases, which supports the government’s lockdown policy. The model may also be applied to a possible second COVID-19 wave in Thailand.
How the individual human mobility spatio-temporally shapes the disease transmission dynamics
No full text2/3/1International audienceHuman mobility plays a crucial role in the temporal and spatial spreading of infectious diseases. During the past few decades, researchers have been extensively investigating how human mobility affects the propagation of diseases. However, the mechanism of human mobility shaping the spread of epidemics is still elusive. Here we examined the impact of human mobility on the infectious disease spread by developing the individual-based SEIR model that incorporates a model of human mobility. We considered the spread of human influenza in two contrasting countries, namely, Belgium and Martinique, as case studies, to assess the specific roles of human mobility on infection propagation. We found that our model can provide a geo-temporal spreading pattern of the epidemics that cannot be captured by a traditional homogenous epidemic model. The disease has a tendency to jump to high populated urban areas before spreading to more rural areas and then subsequently spread to all neighboring locations. This heterogeneous spread of the infection can be captured by the time of the first arrival of the infection ( T fi ), which relates to the landscape of the human mobility characterized by the relative attractiveness. These findings can provide insights to better understand and forecast the disease spreading
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
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