46 research outputs found
The impact of climate change on crop mix shift in the Nordic region
No full textGrowing evidence of anthropogenic climate change suggests marked changes in agricultural ecosystems and crop suitability across the globe. Northern Europe is primarily predicted to see beneficial impacts through crop shifts towards the North of the region. However, studies that quantify the magnitude of climate induced past shifts and the likely future shifts in the agricultural land use patterns are lacking. We use a rich municipality level longitudinal data set from the Nordic region from 1979 to 2012 to study farmers’ adaptation to climate change in terms of crop mix shift. We model four land use classes, namely, cereal, grass, oil seed, and ‘others’, a category summing the remaining agricultural land uses. On top of climatic variables, we include biophysical and economic variables as controls in the regression. We utilize a multinomial fractional logit regression to estimate changes in the land use mix. The projection results indicate that both the near future (2041–2070) and the far future (2071–2100) projected climate are likely to increase the area share of cereal and at the same time decrease the share of grass in the Nordic region relative to the baseline climate (1981–2010). However, these results vary across the region. The results generally suggest a moderate climate induced impact on the spatial crop distributions. Our projection results show a moderate shift in agricultural crop distributions depending on the climate scenario and the time-horizon. Depending on the climate change scenario, grass and cereal are expected to shift by up to 92.8 and 178.7 km, respectively, towards opposite directions; grass towards the South–West and cereal towards the North–East. Overall, the projected areal expansion of cereal towards the North–East is expected to lead to increased environmental pressure
Lifelong exposure to air pollution and greenness in relation to asthma, rhinitis and lung function in adulthood
No full textOBJECTIVES: To investigate if air pollution and greenness exposure from birth till adulthood affects adult asthma, rhinitis and lung function. METHODS: We analysed data from 3428 participants (mean age 28) in the RHINESSA study in Norway and Sweden. Individual mean annual residential exposures to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3) and greenness (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) were averaged across susceptibility windows (0-10 years, 10-18 years, lifetime, adulthood (year before study participation)) and analysed in relation to physician diagnosed asthma (ever/allergic/non-allergic), asthma attack last 12 months, current rhinitis and low lung function (lower limit of normal (LLN), z-scores of forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV1/FVC below 1.64). We performed logistic regression for asthma attack, rhinitis and LLN lung function (clustered with family and study centre), and conditional logistic regression with a matched case-control design for ever/allergic/non-allergic asthma. Multivariable models were adjusted for parental asthma and education. RESULTS: Childhood, adolescence and adult exposure to NO2, PM10 and O3 were associated with an increased risk of asthma attacks (ORs between 1.29 and 2.25), but not with physician diagnosed asthma. For rhinitis, adulthood exposures seemed to be most important. Childhood and adolescence exposures to PM2.5 and O3 were associated with lower lung function, in particular FEV1 (range ORs 2.65 to 4.21). No associations between NDVI and asthma or rhinitis were revealed, but increased NDVI was associated with lower FEV1 and FVC in all susceptibility windows (range ORs 1.39 to 1.74). CONCLUSIONS: Air pollution exposures in childhood, adolescence and adulthood were associated with increased risk of asthma attacks, rhinitis and low lung function in adulthood. Greenness was not associated with asthma or rhinitis, but was a risk factor for low lung function
Assessing the Impact of Ammonia Emissions from Mink Farming in Denmark on Human Health and Critical Load Exceedance
No full textIn this study, the objective is to assess the impacts of NH3 emissions from mink farming on human health and nature, which are sensitive to atmospheric nitrogen deposition. The impact-pathway approach is applied to follow the emissions from source to impact on human health in Europe (including Denmark) and from source to critical nitrogen load exceedances for NH3-sensitive nature in Denmark. The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is used for modelling the air pollution concentrations in Europe and nitrogen depositions on land and water surfaces in Denmark arising from NH3 emissions from mink farming in Denmark. The Economic Valuation of Air (EVA) pollution model system is applied for deriving the health effects and corresponding socio-economic costs in Denmark and Europe arising from the emissions from mink farming. On a local scale in Denmark, the deposition resulting from the NH3 emissions from mink farming is modelled using the results from the OML-DEP model at a high resolution to derive the critical nitrogen load exceedances for Danish nature areas sensitive to NH3. From the analysis of the impacts through human exposure to the air pollutants PM2.5, NO2, and O3, it is concluded that in total, ~60 premature deaths annually in Europe, including Denmark, can be attributed to the emissions of NH3 to the atmosphere from the mink farming sector in Denmark. This corresponds to annual socio-economic costs on the order of EUR 142 million. From the analysis of critical load exceedances, it is concluded that an exceedance of the critical load of nitrogen deposition of ~14,600 hectares (ha) of NH3-sensitive nature areas in Denmark can be attributed to NH3 emissions from mink farming. The cost for restoring nature areas of this size, damaged by eutrophication from excess nitrogen deposition, is estimated to be ~EUR 110 million. In 2020, the mink sector in Denmark was shut down in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic. All mink were culled by order of the Danish Government, and now in 2025, the process of determining the level of financial compensation to the farmers is still ongoing. The socio-economic costs following the impacts on human health in Europe and nitrogen-sensitive nature in Denmark of NH3 emissions from the now non-existing mink sector can therefore be viewed as socio-economic benefits. In this study, these benefits are compared with the expected level of compensation from the Danish Government to the mink farmers, and the conclusion is that the compensation to the mink farmers breaks even with the benefits from reduced NH3 emissions over a timescale of ~20 years
Associations of Preconception Exposure to Air Pollution and Greenness with Offspring Asthma and Hay Fever
No full textWe investigated if greenness and air pollution exposure in parents' childhood affect offspring asthma and hay fever, and if effects were mediated through parental asthma, pregnancy greenness/pollution exposure, and offspring exposure. We analysed 1106 parents with 1949 offspring (mean age 35 and 6) from the Respiratory Health in Northern Europe, Spain and Australia (RHINESSA) generation study. Mean particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), black carbon (BC), ozone (O3) (µg/m3) and greenness (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) were calculated for parents 0-18 years old and offspring 0-10 years old, and were categorised in tertiles. We performed logistic regression and mediation analyses for two-pollutant models (clustered by family and centre, stratified by parental lines, and adjusted for grandparental asthma and education). Maternal medium PM2.5 and PM10 exposure was associated with higher offspring asthma risk (odds ratio (OR) 2.23, 95%CI 1.32-3.78, OR 2.27, 95%CI 1.36-3.80), and paternal high BC exposure with lower asthma risk (OR 0.31, 95%CI 0.11-0.87). Hay fever risk increased for offspring of fathers with medium O3 exposure (OR 4.15, 95%CI 1.28-13.50) and mothers with high PM10 exposure (OR 2.66, 95%CI 1.19-5.91). The effect of maternal PM10 exposure on offspring asthma was direct, while for hay fever, it was mediated through exposures in pregnancy and offspring's own exposures. Paternal O3 exposure had a direct effect on offspring hay fever. To conclude, parental exposure to air pollution appears to influence the risk of asthma and allergies in future offspring
Nitrogen Deposition on Danish Nature
No full textEutrophication events are frequent in Inner Danish waters and critical loads are exceeded for much of the Danish sensitive terrestrial ecosystems. The Danish air quality monitoring program combines measurements and model calculations to benefit from the complementarities in data from these two sources. Measurements describe actual status, seasonal variation, and temporal trends. Model calculations extrapolate the results to the entire country and determine depositions to specific ecosystems. Measurements in 2016 show annual depositions between 7.5 and 11 kg N/ha to terrestrial ecosystems, and a load to marine waters of 5.3 kg N/ha. The deposition on Danish marine waters in 2016 was calculated to be 73,000 tons N with an average deposition of 6.9 kg N/ha. For terrestrial areas, the deposition was calculated to be 57,000 tons N with an average deposition of 13 kg N/ha. This is above critical loads for sensitive ecosystems. Long-term trends show a 35% decrease since 1990 in measured annual nitrogen deposition. At two out of four stations in nature areas, measured ammonia levels exceeded critical levels for lichens and mosses. Conclusions: Nitrogen loads and levels to Danish nature is decreasing, but critical loads and levels are still exceeded for sensitive ecosystems. Combining measurements and model calculations is a strong tool in monitoring
Kortlægning af og virkemiddelkatalog for luftforurening fra trafik i Region Hovedstaden
No full textRegion Hovedstaden har en målsætning om at reducere støj og luftforurening fra vejtransport frem mod 2025. På den baggrund igangsatte Region Hovedstaden en kortlægning af støj og luftforurening fra trafik, og en undersøgelse af forskellige virkemidler til at reducere støj- og luftforurening. Projektet har været ledet af COWI, som står for støjdelen, mens DCE - Nationalt Center for Miljø og Energi står for luftdelen udført af Institut for Miljøvidenskab ved Aarhus Universitet.
Kortlægning af luftforureningen i Region Hovedstaden er baseret på eksisterende luftkvalitetsmodeller og målinger fra det nationale måleprogram for luftkvalitet. Koncentrationsniveauer sammenlignes med EU’s grænseværdier for luftkvalitet og verdenssundhedsorganisationen WHO’s retningslinjer for luftkvalitet. Endvidere gennemføres en kildeopgørelse, som opsummerer, hvor meget de enkelte emissionssektorer herunder vejtransport bidrager til den samlede emission og til luftkvaliteten. Helbredseffekter og tilhørende samfundsmæssige omkostninger af luftforureningen beregnes også. Beregningerne er fortaget for 2014 og 2025.
En lang række virkemidler for vejtransport er gennemgået med henblik på at kvantificere effekten i forhold til luftforurening. Virkemidler omfatter bl.a. skærpede miljøzoner i de større byer, øget andel af elektriske transportmidler, vej- og trængselsafgifter samt alternative drivmidler
AMAP. 2016. Influence of Climate Change on Transport, Levels, and Effects of Contaminants in Northern Areas – Part 2
No full textVariability in gaseous elemental mercury at Villum Research Station, Station Nord, in North Greenland from 1999 to 2017
No full textSpecial issue Research results from the 14th International Conference on Mercury as a Global Pollutant (ICMGP 2019), MercOx project, and iGOSP and iCUPE projects of ERA-PLANET in support of the Minamata Convention on Mercury (ACP/AMT inter-journal SI).-- 13 pages, 9 figures, 1 tableMercury is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, and atmospheric transport is an important source for this element in the Arctic. Measurements of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) have been carried out at Villum Research Station (Villum) at Station Nord, situated in northern Greenland. The measurements cover the period 1999–2017, with a gap in the data for the period 2003–2008 (for a total of 11 years). The measurements were compared with model results from the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) that describes the contribution from direct anthropogenic transport, marine emissions and general background concentration. The percentage of time spent over different surfaces was calculated by back-trajectory analysis, and the reaction kinetics were determined by a comparison with ozone.
The GEM measurements were analysed for trends, both seasonal and annual. The only significant trends found were negative ones for the winter and autumn months. Comparison of the measurements to simulations using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) indicated that direct transport of anthropogenic emissions of mercury accounts for between 14 % and 17 % of the measured mercury. Analysis of the kinetics of the observed atmospheric mercury depletion events (AMDEs) confirms the results of a previous study at Villum of the competing reactions of GEM and ozone with Br, which suggests that the lifetime of GEM is about a month. However, a GEM lifetime of 12 months gave the best agreement between the model and measurements. The chemical lifetime is shorter, and thus, the apparent lifetime appears to be the result of deposition followed by reduction and re-emission; for this reason, the term “relaxation time” is preferred to “lifetime” for GEM. The relaxation time for GEM causes a delay between emission reductions and the effect on actual concentrations.
No significant annual trend was found for the measured concentrations of GEM over the measurement period, despite emission reductions. This is interesting, and together with low direct transport of GEM to Villum as found by the DEHM model, it shows that the dynamics of GEM are very complex. Therefore, in the coming years, intensive measurement networks are needed to describe the global distribution of mercury in the environment as the use of models to predict future levels will still be highly uncertain. The situation is increasingly complex due to global changes that most likely will change the transport patterns of mercury, not only in the atmosphere but also between matrixesThis research has been supported by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency (DANCEA funds for Environmental Support to the Arctic Region project; grant no. 2019-7975) and by the European ERA-PLANET projects of iGOSP and iCUPE (consortium agreement no. 689443 for both projects)With the funding support of the ‘Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence’ accreditation (CEX2019-000928-S), of the Spanish Research Agency (AEI)Peer reviewe
Long-term residential exposure to air pollution and Hodgkin lymphoma risk among adults in Denmark:a population-based case–control study
No full textPurpose: The etiology of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is obscure. Research on air pollution and risk of HL provides inconsistent results. We aimed to investigate the association between long-term residential exposure to air pollution and risk of adult Hodgkin lymphoma in Denmark. Methods: We performed a nationwide register-based case–control study, including all (n = 2,681) Hodgkin lymphoma cases registered in the nationwide Danish Cancer Registry between 1989 and 2014. We randomly selected 8,853 age- and sex-matched controls from the entire Danish population using the Civil Registration System, and identified 20-year residential address history for all cases and controls. We modeled outdoor air pollution concentrations at all these addresses using the high-resolution multiscale air pollution model system DEHM/UBM/AirGIS. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios adjusted for individual and neighborhood level sociodemographic variables. Results: There was no association between 1, 5, 10, and 20 years’ time-weighted average exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), O3, SO2, NO2, or the PM2.5 constituents OC, NH4, NO3, and SO4 and risk of Hodgkin lymphoma. Conclusion: Residential exposure to ambient air pollution does not seem to increase the risk of developing Hodgkin lymphoma.</p
Estimation of exposure to air pollution in Denmark: a step towards activity-based dynamic exposure assessment framework
No full textTraditionally in air pollution epidemiology, only the air pollution at the address location is considered in assessment of air pollution exposure. Such static approach does not take into account time-activity patterns of individuals, and may lead to a bias in exposure assessments. The present study demonstrates how consideration of time-activity-based information of individuals and space and time variability of air pollutants’ concentrations affect personal exposure using the newly updated Danish AirGIS system. The study provides an overview of presently ongoing work, where new AirGIS is being updated in terms of dynamic exposure assessment to air pollution using measured and modelled data. The focus is on developing a novel dynamic exposure assessment framework to facilitate health-related studies. Our preliminary findings suggest that the exposure estimates based on time-activity patterns of individuals depend on the level of one’s mobility as well as location of workplace relative to home etc. The presentation will provide a summary of results based on model calculations. Measurements are planned to be performed soon.</p
