15 research outputs found
Is Renewable Energy a Viable Alternative? An Examination of the Draft National Energy Policy, 2017 against the Backdrop of the German Energy Policy (Energiewende)
No full textH2A.Z.1 Monoubiquitylation Antagonizes BRD2 to Maintain Poised Chromatin in ESCs
No full textHistone variant H2A.Z occupies the promoters of active and poised, bivalent genes in embryonic stem cells (ESCs) to regulate developmental programs, yet how it contributes to these contrasting states is poorly understood. Here, we investigate the function of H2A.Z.1 monoubiquitylation (H2A.Z.1ub) by mutation of the PRC1 target residues (H2A.Z.1[superscript K3R3]). We show that H2A.Z.1[superscript K3R3] is properly incorporated at target promoters in murine ESCs (mESCs), but loss of monoubiquitylation leads to de-repression of bivalent genes, loss of Polycomb binding, and faulty lineage commitment. Using quantitative proteomics, we find that tandem bromodomain proteins, including the BET family member BRD2, are enriched in H2A.Z.1 chromatin. We further show that BRD2 is gained at de-repressed promoters in H2A.Z.1[superscript K3R3] mESCs, whereas BRD2 inhibition restores gene silencing at these sites. Together, our study reveals an antagonistic relationship between H2A.Z.1ub and BRD2 to regulate the transcriptional balance at bivalent genes to enable proper execution of developmental programs.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Pre-doctoral Training Grant T32GM007287)Massachusetts Institute of Technology. School of Science (Fellowship in Cancer Research)National Cancer Institute (U.S.) (Core Grant Award P30-CA14051)National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Bench to Bassinet Program (U01HL098179)Massachusetts Life Sciences Cente
Giving Mom a Break: The Impact of Higher EITC Payments on Maternal Health
No full textThe 1993 expansions of the Earned Income Tax Credit created the first meaningful separation in the benefit level for families based on the number of children, with families containing two or more children now receiving substantially more in benefits. If income is protective of health, we should see improvements over time in the health for mothers eligible for the EITC with two or more children compared to those with only one child. Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance Survey, we find in difference-in-difference models that for low-educated mothers of two or more children, the number of days with poor mental health and the fraction reporting excellent or very good health improved relative to the mothers with only one child. Using data from the National Health Examination and Nutrition Survey, we find evidence that the probability of having risky levels of biomarkers fell for these same low-educated women impacted more by the 1993 expansions, especially biomarkers that indicate inflammation.
Coolie cartography: crossing frontiers through coolitude
No full textFollowing the abolition of Transatlantic slavery, the British introduced a new scheme of labour to replace the former. 'Indian indentureship', as it was referred to, affected nearly 2 million Indian coolies who defied the traditional ban against crossing the kala pani (dark waters) in order to work on plantations in countries such as British Guiana, Trinidad, Malaya, South Africa and Fiji. In effect, the Indian labour: diaspora emerged and established itself across the globe. Despite over 100 years of labouring and contributing to the development of their new homes, the coolies and their descendents still face political, social and cultural marginalization. The aim of this thesis is to explore the consequences of indentureship in various societies through a parallelization of inter-national coolie conditions as represented by writers of the diaspora. The three areas selected for this study are Guyana, Malaysia and Fiji. David Dabydeen (Guyana), K.S.Maniam (Malaysia) and Satendra Nandan (Fiji) all share the impetus to disclose the past as a portal into the present, thereby dismpting normative time, and by implication, a fixed sense of history. However; the most striking similarity between these writers, despite their geographical and social distance, is their literary method which centres on the theory of coolitude. Coolitude was coined by Khal Torabully as a means of recuperating the voiceless coolie, firstly, by re-membering the sea voyage across the kizla pani and secondly, by highlighting the coolie's place in the mosaic of multicultural societies. Chapter 1 details the historical, theoretical and methodical foundations of the thesis. Chapter 2 explores Dabydeen's novels The Counting House and Our Lady of Demerara while Chapter 3 is a detailed study of Maniam's novels The Return and In A Far Country. The final chapter considers Nandan's novel The Wounded Sea and collection of poetry Lines Across Black Waters. Each literary analysis seeks to understand how coolitude, as a means to historically and politically place the coolie in the current world,: links spaces between countries both through a shared colonial history and a common postcolonial condition
Produção de monoacilgliceróis e diacilgliceróis ricos em ácidos graxos ômega-3 a partir da glicerólise enzimática de óleo de peixe
No full textTese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Alimentos, Florianópolis, 2011O objetivo deste estudo foi apresentar novas informações experimentais para a obtenção de emulsificantes (monoacilgliceróis e/ou diacilgliceróis) por meio da glicerólise de óleo de peixe em diferentes sistemas (livre de solvente e de surfactante, na presença de terc-butanol ou contendo surfactante de grau alimentício), utilizando-se a lipase Novozym® 435 como catalisador. Entre os surfactantes testados (Tween 60, Tween 65, Tween 80 e lecitina de soja), o Tween 65 foi escolhido para o aprofundamento do estudo no meio contendo este aditivo, com o intuito de melhorar o contato entre os substratos imiscíveis (óleo e glicerol) e a enzima. Análises prévias verificaram, entretanto, que a lipase testada pode agir sobre todos os surfactantes avaliados. Nas reações de glicerólise testadas, o efeito de parâmetros de processo relevantes (concentração de enzima, temperatura, proporção molar de glicerol e óleo, proporção de solvente, concentração de surfactante) para a produção dos emulsificantes desejados foi avaliado em todos os meios reacionais. Para todos os sistemas, as condições da glicerólise mostraram-se importantes para a obtenção dos produtos desejados. Apesar de a reação de glicerólise ter sido viável em meio livre de solvente e de surfactante, foi necessário um longo tempo de reação (24h) para a obtenção de quantidades satisfatórias de mono- (25,93% m/m) e diacilgliceróis (38,24% m/m). Estes teores foram obtidos em reação conduzida a 70°C em banho-maria do tipo Dubnoff, com 5% de lipase (em massa, em relação ao total de substratos) e com a proporção molar de glicerol e óleo de 1:1. Foi possível produzir 43,30% e 43,10% de diacilgliceróis em meios contendo, respectivamente, 1:1 (v/v) de tercbutanol e 5% (m/m em relação ao total de substratos) de Tween 65. As reações para os dois sistemas foram conduzidas a 70°C, durante 2h sob agitação mecânica, utilizando-se a proporção molar de glicerol:óleo de 1:1 e 15% de lipase (m/m). Este estudo descreveu a viabilidade da produção de monoacilgliceróis e/ou diacilgliceróis enriquecidos em EPA e DHA, utilizando-se diferentes meios reacionais.The aim of this study was to present new experimental information concerning the production of emulsifiers (monoacylglycerols and/or diacylglycerols) by means of glycerolysis of fish oil in different reaction systems (solvent-free and surfactant-free, with tert-butanol or with a food grade surfactant), by using the lipase Novozym® 435 as catalyst. After a screening of different surfactants (Tween 60, Tween 65, Tween 80 and soy lecithin), Tween 65 was chosen for further studies for the system containing this additive, in order to improve the contact between the immiscible substrates (glycerol and oil) and the enzyme. Previous analyses indicated, however, the lipase can modify all tested surfactants. In the performed glycerolyses reactions, the effect of the more relevant process parameters (enzyme concentration, temperature, glycerol to oil molar ratio, solvent ratio or surfactant concentration) on mono- and diacylglycerols production was assessed. For all systems, reaction conditions proved to be important for the formation of the desired products. Although the glycerolysis reaction in a solvent-free and surfactant-free system has been feasible, a long time (24h) was necessary to achieve appreciable amounts of monoacylglycerols (25.93wt%) and diacyglycerols (38.24wt%). These contents were observed for the reaction performed at 70°C in a Dubnoff water bath, with 5wt% of lipase (based on total substrates) and the glycerol to oil molar ratio of 1:1. It was possible to produce 43.30wt% and 43.10wt% of diacylglycerols in the reaction media containing, respectively, 1:1 (v/v) of tert-butanol and 5wt% of Tween 65 (based on total substrates). Reactions for both systems were carried out at 70°C for 2h under mechanical stirring, with the glycerol to oil molar ratio of 1:1 and 15wt% of lipase. This study described the feasibility of enzymatic synthesis of mono- and/or diglycerides rich in omega-3 fatty acids by using different reaction media
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textFunding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 1420 autors/es. Membres del GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators:
Stein Emil Vollset*, Hazim S Ababneh, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Hedayat Abbastabar, Abdallah H A Abd Al Magied, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Atef Abdelkader, Michael Abdelmasseh, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Parsa Abdi, Mohammad Abdollahi, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Mesfin Abebe, Olumide Abiodun, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Mohamed Abouzid, Girma Beressa Aboye, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Abdorrahim Absalan, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Hana Jihad Jihad Abukhadijah, Giovanni Addolorato, Victor Adekanmbi, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa, Rishan Adha, Ripon Kumar Adhikary, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Leticia Akua Adzigbli, Fatemeh Afrashteh, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Afzal, Faith Agbozo, Antonella Agodi, Anurag Agrawal, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Austin J Ahlstrom, Aqeel Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Shahzaib Ahmad, Anisuddin Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Safoora Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Karolina Akinosoglou, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Ashley E Akrami, Ema Akter, Salah Al Awaidy, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Amjad S Al Mosa, Omar Al Ta’ani, Omar Ali Mohammed Al Zaabi, Fares Alahdab, Muaaz M Alajlani, Yazan Al-Ajlouni, Samer O Alalalmeh, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Tahiya Alam, Zufishan Alam, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Almaza Albakri, Wafa A Aldhaleei, Robert W Aldridge, Seyedeh Yasaman Alemohammad, Yihun Mulugeta Alemu, Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi, Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi, Abid Ali, Amjad Ali, Iman Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Victor Ekoche Ali, Waad Ali, Akram Al-Ibraheem, Gianfranco Alicandro, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, François Alla, Joseph Uy Almazan, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi, Ahmad Alrawashdeh, Sahel Majed Alrousan, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Mohammed A Alsabri, Zaid Altaany, Ala’a B Al-Tammemi, Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq, Khalid A Altirkawi, Deborah Oyine Aluh, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Mohammad Sami Al-Wardat, Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi, Hany Aly, Mohammad Sharif Alyahya, Karem H Alzoubi, Walid Al-Zyoud, Reza Amani, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, Sohrab Amiri, Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq, Hubert Amu, Dickson A Amugsi, Robert Ancuceanu, Deanna Anderlini, David B Anderson, Pedro Prata Andrade, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Erick Adrian Andrews, Abhishek Anil, Sneha Anil, Amir Anoushiravani, Catherine M Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Boluwatife Stephen Anuoluwa, Saeid Anvari, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Francis Appiah, Michele Aquilano, Juan Pablo Arab, Jalal Arabloo, Elshaimaa A Arafa, Mosab Arafat, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Ali Ardekani, Demelash Areda, Brhane Berhe Aregawi, Abdulfatai Aremu, Hany Ariffin, Mesay Arkew, Keivan Armani, Anton A Artamonov, Ashokan Arumugam, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi, Charlie Ashbaugh, Thomas Astell-Burt, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Prince Atorkey, Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout, Avinash Aujayeb, Marcel Ausloos, Hamzeh Awad, Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe, Haleh Ayatollahi, Jose L Ayuso-Mateos, Sina Azadnajafabad, Fahad Khan Azeez, Rui M S Azevedo, Muhammad Badar, Soroush Baghdadi, Mahboube Bagheri, Nasser Bagheri, Ruhai Bai, Jennifer L Baker, Abdulaziz T Bako, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Wondu Feyisa Balcha, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Martina Barchitta, Erfan Bardideh, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Sandra Barteit, Afisu Basiru, João Diogo Basso, Mohammad-Mahdi Bastan, Sanjay Basu, Matteo Bauckneht, Bernhard T Baune, Mohsen Bayati, Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn, Amir Hossein Behnoush, Payam Behzadi, Maryam Beiranvand, Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello, Luis Belo, Apostolos Beloukas, Maryam Bemanalizadeh, Isabela M Bensenor, Habib Benzian, Azizullah Beran, Zombor Berezvai, Robert S Bernstein, Paulo J G Bettencourt, Kebede A Beyene, Melak Gedamu Beyene, Devidas S Bhagat, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Neeraj Bhala, Dinesh Bhandari, Ravi Bharadwaj, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Ashish Bhargava, Sonu Bhaskar, Vivek Bhat, Natalia V Bhattacharjee, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Manpreet S Bhatti, Mohiuddin Ahmed Bhuiyan, Catherine Bisignano, Bijit Biswas, Tone Bjørge, Virginia Bodolica, Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin, Milad Bonakdar Hashemi, Berrak Bora Basara, Hamed Borhany, Samuel Adolf Bosoka, Alejandro Botero Carvajal, Souad Bouaoud, Soufiane Boufous, Christopher Boxe, Edward J Boyko, Oliver J Brady, Dejana Braithwaite, Michael Brauer, Javier Brazo-Sayavera, Hermann Brenner, Colin Stewart Brown, Annie J Browne, Traolach Brugha, Dana Bryazka, Norma B Bulamu, Danilo Buonsenso, Katrin Burkart, Richard A Burns, Reinhard Busse, Yasser Bustanji, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Mehtap Çakmak Barsbay, Daniela Calina, Luciana Aparecida Campos, Shujin Cao, Angelo Capodici, Rosario Cárdenas, Giulia Carreras, Andrea Carugno, Márcia Carvalho, Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Giulio Castelpietra, Maria Sofia Cattaruzza, Arthur Caye, Luca Cegolon, Francieli Cembranel, Edina Cenko, Ester Cerin, Steven J Chadban, Joshua Chadwick, Chiranjib Chakraborty, Sandip Chakraborty, Julian Chalek, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan, Rama Mohan Chandika, Sara Chandy, Jaykaran Charan, Anis Ahmad Chaudhary, Akhilanand Chaurasia, An-Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Meng Xuan Chen, Simiao Chen, Nicolas Cherbuin, Gerald Chi, Fatemeh Chichagi, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, Ritesh Chimoriya, Patrick R Ching, Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres, Abdulaal Chitheer, Daniel Youngwhan Cho, William C S Cho, Dong-Woo Choi, Bryan Chong, Chean Lin Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Dinh-Toi Chu, Eric Chung, Muhammad Chutiyami, Justin T Clayton, Rebecca M Cogen, Aaron J Cohen, Alyssa Columbus, Haley Comfort, Joao Conde, Jon T Connolly, Ezra E K Cooper, Samuele Cortese, Natália Cruz-Martins, Alanna Gomes da Silva, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Zhaoli Dai, Bronte E Dalton, Giovanni Damiani, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Jai K Das, Saswati Das, Subasish Das, Nihar Ranjan Dash, Kairat Davletov, Fernando Pio De la Hoz, Diego De Leo, Shayom Debopadhaya, Ivan Delgado-Enciso, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Nikolaos Dervenis, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan, Kuldeep Dhama, Amol S Dhane, Sameer Dhingra, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Diaz, Luis Antonio Diaz, Michael J Diaz, Adriana Dima, Delaney D Ding, Thao Huynh Phuong Do, Camila Bruneli do Prado, Masoud Dodangeh, Milad Dodangeh, Phidelia Theresa Doegah, Sushil Dohare, Wanyue Dong, Mario D’Oria, Rajkumar Doshi, Robert Kokou Dowou, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Viola Dsouza, John Dube, Samuel C Dumith, Bruce B Duncan, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Senbagam Duraisamy, Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye, Anar Dushpanova, Sulagna Dutta, Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Ejemai Eboreime, Alireza Ebrahimi, Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan, Hisham Atan Edinur, Ferry Efendi, Terje Andreas Eikemo, Ebrahim Eini, Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo, Rabie Adel El Arab, Iman El Sayed, Osman Elamin, Noha Mousaad Elemam, Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary, Muhammed Elhadi, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy, Adel B Elmoselhi, Mohammed Elshaer, Ibrahim Elsohaby, Mohd. Elmagzoub Eltahir, Theophilus I Emeto, Babak Eshrati, Majid Eslami, Zahra Esmaeili, Natalia Fabin, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Omotayo Francis Fagbule, Luca Falzone, Mohammad Fareed, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris, Andre Faro, Kiana Fasihi, Ali Fatehizadeh, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Timur Fazylov, Valery L Feigin, Ginenus Fekadu, Xiaoqi Feng, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Pietro Ferrara, Nuno Ferreira, Belete Sewasew Firew, Florian Fischer, Ida Fitriana, Joanne Flavel, Luisa S Flor, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Kristen Marie Foley, Marco Fonzo, Lisa M Force, Matteo Foschi, Alberto Freitas, Ni Kadek Yuni Fridayani, Kai Glenn Fukutaki, João M Furtado, Blima Fux, Peter Andras Gaal, Muktar A Gadanya, Silvano Gallus, Balasankar Ganesan, Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani, Rupesh K Gautam, Tilaye Gebru Gebi, Miglas W Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Lemma Getacher, Genanew K A Getahun, Peter W Gething, Delaram J Ghadimi, Fataneh Ghadirian, Sadegh Ghafarian, Khalid Yaser Ghailan, MohammadReza Ghasemi, Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi, Ramy Mohamed Ghazy, Sama Ghoba, Ehsan Gholami, Ali Gholamrezanezhad, Nasim Gholizadeh, Mahsa Ghorbani, Pooyan Ghorbani Vajargah, Elena Ghotbi, Artyom Urievich Gil, Tiffany K Gill, Alem Girmay, James C Glasbey, Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova, Elena V Gnedovskaya, Laszlo Göbölös, Mohamad Goldust, Pouya Goleij, Davide Golinelli, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Alessandra C Goulart, Mahdi Gouravani, Anmol Goyal, Michal Grivna, Giuseppe Grosso, Giovanni Guarducci, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Stefano Guicciardi, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Snigdha Gulati, David Gulisashvili, Damitha Asanga Gunawardane, Cui Guo, Anish Kumar Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Renu Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Vijai Kumar Gupta, Annie Haakenstad, Najah R Hadi, Nils Haep, Abdul Hafiz, Dariush Haghmorad, Demewoz Haile, Adel Hajj Ali, Ali Hajj Ali, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Esam S Halboub, Sebastian Haller, Rabih Halwani, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Nadia M Hamdy, Rifat Hamoudi, Nasrin Hanifi, Graeme J Hankey, Zaim Anan Haq, Md Rabiul Haque, Harapan Harapan, Arief Hargono, Josep Maria Haro, Ahmed I Hasaballah, S. M. Mahmudul Hasan, Mohammad Hasanian, Md Saquib Hasnain, Amr Hassan, Johannes Haubold, Simon I Hay, Jeffrey J Hebert, Omar E Hegazi, Mohammad Heidari, Mehdi Hemmati, Claire A Henson, Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna, Claudiu Herteliu, Majid Heydari, Kamal Hezam, Irma Hidayana, Yuta Hiraike, Nguyen Quoc Hoan, Ramesh Holla, Praveen Hoogar, Nobuyuki Horita, Md Mahbub Hossain, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Chengxi Hu, Junjie Huang, Michael Hultström, Tsegaye Gebreyes Hundie, Aliza J Hunt, Kiavash Hushmandi, Javid Hussain, M. Azhar Hussain, Nawfal R Hussein, Hong-Han Huynh, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar, Adalia I Ikiroma, Paul Chukwudi Ikwegbue, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Mustapha Immurana, Mustafa Alhaji Isa, Md. Rabiul Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Faisal Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Gaetano Isola, Masao Iwagami, Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu, Louis Jacob, Kathryn H Jacobsen, Morteza Jafarinia, Kasra Jahankhani, Nader Jahanmehr, Nityanand Jain, Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun, Dr Ruchi Jakhmola Mani, Safayet Jamil, Roland Dominic G Jamora, Abubakar Ibrahim Jatau, Sabzali Javadov, Tahereh Javaheri, Shubha Jayaram, Sun Ha Jee, Jayakumar Jeganathan, Heng Jiang, Mohammad Jokar, Jost B Jonas, Nitin Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Mikk Jürisson, Vaishali K, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Vidya Kadashetti, Laleh R Kalankesh, Sanjay Kalra, Ashwin Kamath, Rajesh Kamath, Arun Kamireddy, Mona Kanaan, Tanuj Kanchan, Edmund Wedam Kanmiki, Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi, Sushil Kumar Kansal, Asima Karim, Samad Karkhah, Faizan Zaffar Kashoo, Hengameh Kasraei, Molly B Kassel, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Joonas H Kauppila, Harkiran Kaur, Gbenga A Kayode, Foad Kazemi, Sina Kazemian, Fassikaw Kebede, Evie Shoshannah Kendal, Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot, Shahram Khademvatan, Himanshu Khajuria, Amirmohammad Khalaji, Asaad Khalid, Nauman Khalid, Alireza Khalilian, Faham Khamesipour, Fayaz Khan, Mohammad Jobair Khan, Moien AB Khan, Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi, Khaled Khatab, Haitham Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani, Khalid A Kheirallah, Manoj Khokhar, Moein Khormali, Zahra Khorrami, Atulya Aman Khosla, Majid Khosravi, Mahmood Khosrowjerdi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Zemene Demelash Kifle, Grace Kim, Julie Sojin Kim, Min Seo Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Luke D Knibbs, Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen, Sonali Kochhar, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Farzad Kompani, Gerbrand Koren, Oleksii Korzh, Kewal Krishan, Varun Krishna, Vijay Krishnamoorthy, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Md Abdul Kuddus, Mohammed Kuddus, Ilari Kuitunen, Omar Kujan, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Vishnutheertha Kulkarni, G Anil Kumar, Harish Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Rakesh Kumar, Vijay Kumar, Amartya Kundu, Dian Kusuma, Frank Kyei-Arthur, Ville Kytö, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Muhammad Awwal Ladan, Lucie Laflamme, Chandrakant Lahariya, Daphne Teck Ching Lai, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Judit Lám, Qing Lan, Tuo Lan, Iván Landires, Francesco Lanfranchi, Berthold Langguth, Van Charles Lansingh, Ariane Laplante-Lévesque, Bagher Larijani, Anders O Larsson, Savita Lasrado, Paolo Lauriola, Hilary R Lawlor, Huu-Hoai Le, Long Khanh Dao Le, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Thao Thi Thu Le, Trang Diep Thanh Le, Janet L Leasher, Doo Woong Lee, Munjae Lee, Paul H Lee, Sang-woong Lee, Seung Won Lee, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Yo Han Lee, James Leigh, Elvynna Leong, Ming-Chieh Li, Massimo Libra, Virendra S Ligade, Lee-Ling Lim, Stephen S Lim, Liknaw Workie Limenh, Daniel Lindholm, Paulina A Lindstedt, Stefan Listl, Gang Liu, Shiwei Liu, Shuke Liu, Xiaofeng Liu, Xuefeng Liu, Erand Llanaj, Rubén López-Bueno, José Francisco López-Gil, Arianna Maever Loreche, Paulo A Lotufo, Rafael Lozano, Jailos Lubinda, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Lisha Luo, Jay B Lusk, Lei Lv, Hawraz Ibrahim M Amin, Zheng Feei Ma, Kelsey Lynn Maass, Nikolaos Machairas, Monika Machoy, Áurea M Madureira-Carvalho, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Azzam A Maghazachi, D. R. Mahadeshwara Prasad, Mehrdad Mahalleh, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Mansour Adam Mahmoud, Elham Mahmoudi, Golnaz Mahmoudvand, Maureen Makama, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Kashish Malhotra, Ahmad Azam Malik, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Yosef Manla, Ali Mansour, Mohammad Hadi Mansouri, Pejman Mansouri, Vahid Mansouri, Marjan Mansourian, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Bishnu P Marasini, Hamid Reza Marateb, Joemer C Maravilla, Parham Mardi, Abdoljalal Marjani, Hamed Markazi Moghadam, Carlos Alberto Marrugo Arnedo, Gabriel Martinez, Ramon Martinez-Piedra, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Miquel Martorell, Wolfgang Marx, Roy Rillera Marzo, Sahar Masoudi, Yasith Mathangasinghe, Alexander G Mathioudakis, Medha Mathur, Navgeet Mathur, Neeta Mathur, Fernanda Penido Matozinhos, Jishanth Mattumpuram, Richard James Maude, Andrea Maugeri, Mahsa Mayeli, Mohsen Mazidi, Antonio Mazzotti, John J McGrath, Martin McKee, Anna Laura W McKowen, Michael A McPhail, Steven M McPhail, Asim Mehmood, Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Sepideh 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Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Queensland Department of Health, Australia; UK Department of Health and Social Care; the Norwegian Institute of Public Health; St Jude Children’s Research Hospital; and the New Zealand Ministry of Health. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the funders. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with license number SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law–2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. Collection of these data was made possible by USAID under the terms of cooperative agreement GPO-A-00-08-000_D3-00.Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 2000 autors/es: Mohsen Naghavi , Kanyin Liane Ong , Amirali Aali , Hazim S Ababneh , Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate , Cristiana Abbafati , Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh , Mohammadreza Abbasian , Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari , Hedayat Abbastabar , Samar Abd ElHafeez , Michael Abdelmasseh , Sherief Abd-Elsalam , Ahmed Abdelwahab , Mohammad Abdollahi , Mohammad-Amin Abdollahifar , Meriem Abdoun , Deldar Morad Abdulah , Auwal Abdullahi , Mesfin Abebe , Samrawit Shawel Abebe , Aidin Abedi , Kedir Hussein Abegaz , E S Abhilash , Hassan Abidi , Olumide Abiodun , Richard Gyan Aboagye , Hassan Abolhassani , Meysam Abolmaali , Mohamed Abouzid , Girma Beressa Aboye , Lucas Guimarães Abreu , Woldu Aberhe Abrha , Dariush Abtahi , Samir Abu Rumeileh , Hasan Abualruz , Bilyaminu Abubakar , Eman Abu-Gharbieh , Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh , Salahdein Aburuz , Ahmed Abu-Zaid , Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi , Tadele Girum Adal , Abdu A Adamu , Isaac Yeboah Addo , Giovanni Addolorato , Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi , Victor Adekanmbi , Abiola Victor Adepoju , Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji , Juliana Bunmi Adetunji , Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa , Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka , Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye , Biruk Adie Adie Admass , Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani , Saryia Adra , Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi , Muhammad Sohail Afzal , Saira Afzal , Suneth Buddhika Agampodi , Pradyumna Agasthi , Manik Aggarwal , Shahin Aghamiri , Feleke Doyore Agide , Antonella Agodi , Anurag Agrawal , Williams Agyemang-Duah , Bright Opoku Ahinkorah , Aqeel Ahmad , Danish Ahmad , Firdos Ahmad , Muayyad M Ahmad , Sajjad Ahmad , Shahzaib Ahmad , Tauseef Ahmad , Keivan Ahmadi , Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade , Ali Ahmed , Ayman Ahmed , Haroon Ahmed , Luai A Ahmed , Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed , Meqdad Saleh Ahmed , Muktar Beshir Ahmed , Syed Anees Ahmed , Marjan Ajami , Budi Aji , Essona Matatom Akara , Hossein Akbarialiabad , Karolina Akinosoglou , Tomi Akinyemiju , Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif , Samuel Akyirem , Hanadi Al Hamad , Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan , Fares Alahdab , Samer O Alalalmeh , Tariq A Alalwan , Ziyad Al-Aly , Khurshid Alam , Manjurul Alam , Noore Alam , Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer , Fahad Mashhour Alanezi , Turki M Alanzi , Sayer Al-Azzam , Almaza Albakri , Mohammed Albashtawy , Mohammad T AlBataineh , Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal , Khalifah A Aldawsari , Wafa A Aldhaleei , Robert W Aldridge , Haileselasie Berhane Alema , Mulubirhan Assefa Alemayohu , Sharifullah Alemi , Yihun Mulugeta Alemu , Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi , Khalid F Alhabib , Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa , Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi , Abid Ali , Amjad Ali , Liaqat Ali , Mohammed Usman Ali , Rafat Ali , Shahid Ali , Syed Shujait Shujait Ali , Gianfranco Alicandro , Sheikh Mohammad Alif , Reyhaneh Alikhani , Yousef Alimohamadi , Ahmednur Adem Aliyi , Mohammad A M Aljasir , Syed Mohamed Aljunid , François Alla , Peter Allebeck , Sabah Al-Marwani , Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri , Joseph Uy Almazan , Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi , Louay Almidani , Omar Almidani , Mahmoud A Alomari , Basem Al-Omari , Jordi Alonso , Jaber S Alqahtani , Shehabaldin Alqalyoobi , Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi , Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah , Zaid Altaany , Awais Altaf , Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq , Khalid A Altirkawi , Deborah Oyine Aluh , Nelson Alvis-Guzman , Hassan Alwafi , Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi , Hany Aly , Safwat Aly , Karem H Alzoubi , Reza Amani , Azmeraw T Amare , Prince M Amegbor , Edward Kwabena Ameyaw , Tarek Tawfik Amin , Alireza Amindarolzarbi , Sohrab Amiri , Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq , Hubert Amu , Dickson A Amugsi , Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa , Robert Ancuceanu , Deanna Anderlini , David B Anderson , Pedro Prata Andrade , Catalina Liliana Andrei , Tudorel Andrei , Colin Angus , Abhishek Anil , Sneha Anil , Amir Anoushiravani , Hossein Ansari , Ansariadi Ansariadi , Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam , Catherine M Antony , Ernoiz Antriyandarti , Davood Anvari , Saeid Anvari , Saleha Anwar , Sumadi Lukman Anwar , Razique Anwer , Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor , Muhammad Aqeel , Juan Pablo Arab , Jalal Arabloo , Mosab Arafat , Aleksandr Y Aravkin , Demelash Areda , Abdulfatai Aremu , Olatunde Aremu , Hany Ariffin , Mesay Arkew , Benedetta Armocida , Michael Benjamin Arndt , Johan Ärnlöv , Mahwish Arooj , Anton A Artamonov , Judie Arulappan , Raphael Taiwo Aruleba , Ashokan Arumugam , Malke Asaad , Mohsen Asadi-Lari , Akeza Awealom Asgedom , Mona Asghariahmadabad , Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi , Muhammad Ashraf , Armin Aslani , Thomas Astell-Burt , Mohammad Athar , Seyyed Shamsadin Athari , Bantalem Tilaye Tilaye Atinafu , Habtamu Wondmagegn Atlaw , Prince Atorkey , Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout , Alok Atreya , Avinash Aujayeb , Marcel Ausloos , Abolfazl Avan , Atalel Fentahun Awedew , Amlaku Mulat Aweke , Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla , Haleh Ayatollahi , Jose L Ayuso-Mateos , Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh , Sina Azadnajafabad , Rui M S Azevedo , Ahmed Y Azzam , Darshan B B , Abraham Samuel Babu , Muhammad Badar , Ashish D Badiye , Soroush Baghdadi , Nasser Bagheri , Sara Bagherieh , Sulaiman Bah , Saeed Bahadorikhalili , Najmeh Bahmanziari , Ruhai Bai , Atif Amin Baig , Jennifer L Baker , Abdulaziz T Bako , Ravleen Kaur Bakshi , Senthilkumar Balakrishnan , Madhan Balasubramanian , Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu , Kiran Bam , Maciej Banach , Soham Bandyopadhyay , Palash Chandra Banik , Hansi Bansal , Kannu Bansal , Franca Barbic , Martina Barchitta , Mainak Bardhan , Erfan Bardideh , Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo , Till Winfried Bärnighausen , Francesco Barone-Adesi , Hiba Jawdat Barqawi , Lope H Barrero , Amadou Barrow , Sandra Barteit , Lingkan Barua , Zarrin Basharat , Azadeh Bashiri , Afisu Basiru , Pritish Baskaran , Buddha Basnyat , Quique Bassat , João Diogo Basso , Ann V L Basting , Sanjay Basu , Kavita Batra , Bernhard T Baune , Mohsen Bayati , Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn , Thomas Beaney , Neeraj Bedi , Massimiliano Beghi , Emad Behboudi , Priyamadhaba Behera , Amir Hossein Behnoush , Masoud Behzadifar , Maryam Beiranvand , Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez , Yannick Béjot , Sefealem Assefa Belay , Chalie Mulu Belete , Michelle L Bell , Muhammad Bashir Bello , Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello , Luis Belo , Apostolos Beloukas , Rose Grace Bender , Isabela M Bensenor , Azizullah Beran , Zombor Berezvai , Alemshet Yirga Berhie , Betyna N Berice , Robert S Bernstein , Gregory J Bertolacci , Paulo J G Bettencourt , Kebede A Beyene , Devidas S Bhagat , Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula , Neeraj Bhala , Ashish Bhalla , Dinesh Bhandari , Kayleigh Bhangdia , Nikha Bhardwaj , Pankaj Bhardwaj , Prarthna V Bhardwaj , Ashish Bhargava , Sonu Bhaskar , Vivek Bhat , Gurjit Kaur Bhatti , Jasvinder Singh Bhatti , Manpreet S Bhatti , Rajbir Bhatti , Zulfiqar A Bhutta , Boris Bikbov , Jessica Devin Bishai , Catherine Bisignano , Francesca Bisulli , Atanu Biswas , Bijit Biswas , Saeid Bitaraf , Bikes Destaw Bitew , Veera R Bitra , Tone Bjørge , Micheal Kofi Boachie , Mary Sefa Boampong , Anca Vasilica Bobirca , Virginia Bodolica , Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin , Eyob Ketema Bogale , Kassawmar Angaw Bogale , Somayeh Bohlouli , Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa , Archith Boloor , Milad Bonakdar Hashemi , Aime Bonny , Kaustubh Bora , Berrak Bora Basara , Hamed Borhany , Arturo Borzutzky , Souad Bouaoud , Antoine Boustany , Christopher Boxe , Edward J Boyko , Oliver J Brady , Dejana Braithwaite , Luisa C Brant , Michael Brauer , Alexandra Brazinova , Javier Brazo-Sayavera , Nicholas J K Breitborde , Susanne Breitner , Hermann Brenner , Andrey Nikolaevich Briko , Nikolay Ivanovich Briko , Gabrielle Britton , Julie Brown , Traolach Brugha , Norma B Bulamu , Lemma N Bulto , Danilo Buonsenso , Richard A Burns , Reinhard Busse , Yasser Bustanji , Nadeem Shafique Butt , Zahid A Butt , Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos , Daniela Calina , Luis Alberto Cámera , Luciana Aparecida Campos , Ismael R Campos-Nonato , Chao Cao , Yin Cao , Angelo Capodici , Rosario Cárdenas , Sinclair Carr , Giulia Carreras , Juan J Carrero , Andrea Carugno , Cristina G Carvalheiro , Felix Carvalho , Márcia Carvalho , Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia , Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela , Giulio Castelpietra , Ferrán Catalá-López , Alberico L Catapano , Maria Sofia Cattaruzza , Christopher R Cederroth , Luca Cegolon , Francieli Cembranel , Muthia Cenderadewi , Kelly M Cercy , Ester Cerin , Muge Cevik , Joshua Chadwick , Yaacoub Chahine , Chiranjib Chakraborty , Promit Ananyo Chakraborty , Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan , Raymond N C Chan , Rama Mohan Chandika , Eeshwar K Chandrasekar , Chin-Kuo Chang , Jung-Chen Chang , Gashaw Sisay Chanie , Periklis Charalampous , Vijay Kumar Chattu , Pankaj Chaturvedi , Victoria Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou , Akhilanand Chaurasia , Angela W Chen , An-Tian Chen , Catherine S Chen , Haowei Chen , Meng Xuan Chen , Simiao Chen , Ching-Yu Cheng , Esther T W Cheng , Nicolas Cherbuin , Wondimye Ashenafi Cheru , Ju-Huei Chien , Odgerel Chimed-Ochir , Ritesh Chimoriya , Patrick R Ching , Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres , Abdulaal Chitheer , William C S Cho , Bryan Chong , Hitesh Chopra , Sonali Gajanan Choudhari , Rajiv Chowdhury , Devasahayam J Christopher , Isaac Sunday Chukwu , Eric Chung , Erin Chung , Eunice Chung , Sheng-Chia Chung , Muhammad Chutiyami , Zinhle Cindi , Iolanda Cioffi , Mareli M Claassens , Rafael M Claro , Kaleb Coberly , Rebecca M Cogen , Alyssa Columbus , Haley Comfort , Joao Conde , Samuele Cortese , Paolo Angelo Cortesi , Vera Marisa Costa , Simona Costanzo , Ewerton Cousin , Rosa A S Couto , Richard G Cowden , Kenneth Michael Cramer , Michael H Criqui , Natália Cruz-Martins , Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernández , Garland T Culbreth , Patricia Cullen , Matthew Cunningham , Maria paula Curado , Sriharsha Dadana , Omid Dadras , Siyu Dai , Xiaochen Dai , Zhaoli Dai , Lachlan L Dalli , Giovanni Damiani , Jiregna Darega Gela , Jai K Das , Saswati Das , Subasish Das , Ana Maria Dascalu , Nihar Ranjan Dash , Mohsen Dashti , Anna Dastiridou , Gail Davey , Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes , Nicole Davis Weaver , Kairat Davletov , Diego De Leo , Katie de Luca , Aklilu Tamire Debele , Shayom Debopadhaya , Louisa Degenhardt , Azizallah Dehghan , Lee Deitesfeld , Cristian Del Bo' , Ivan Delgado-Enciso , Berecha Hundessa Demessa , Andreas K Demetriades , Ke Deng , Xinlei Deng , Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez , Niloofar Deravi , Nebiyu Dereje , Nikolaos Dervenis , Emina Dervišević , Don C Des Jarlais , Hardik Dineshbhai Desai , Rupak Desai , Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu , Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan , Arkadeep Dhali , Kuldeep Dhama , Meghnath Dhimal , Sameer Dhingra , Vishal R Dhulipala , Diana Dias da Silva , Daniel Diaz , Michael J Diaz , Adriana Dima , Delaney D Ding , Huanghe Ding , Ricardo Jorge Dinis-Oliveira , M Ashworth Dirac , Shirin Djalalinia , Thao Huynh Phuong Do , Camila Bruneli do Prado , Saeid Doaei , Masoud Dodangeh , Milad Dodangeh , Sushil Dohare , Klara Georgieva Dokova , Christiane Dolecek , Regina-Mae Villanueva Dominguez , Wanyue Dong , Deepa Dongarwar , Mario D'Oria , Fariba Dorostkar , E Ray Dorsey , Wendel Mombaque dos Santos , Rajkumar Doshi , Leila Doshmangir , Robert Kokou Dowou , Tim Robert Driscoll , Haneil Larson Dsouza , Viola Dsouza , Mi Du , John Dube , Bruce B Duncan , Andre Rodrigues Duraes , Senbagam Duraisamy , Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye , Laura Dwyer-Lindgren , Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach , Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic , Abdel Rahman E'mar , Ejemai Eboreime , Alireza Ebrahimi , Chidiebere Peter Echieh , Hisham Atan Edinur , David Edvardsson , Kristina Edvardsson , Defi Efendi , Ferry Efendi , Diyan Ermawan Effendi , Terje Andreas Eikemo , Ebrahim Eini , Michael Ekholuenetale , Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo , Iman El Sayed , Iffat Elbarazi , Teshome Bekele Elema , Noha Mousaad Elemam , Frank J Elgar , Islam Y Elgendy , Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary , Hala Rashad Elhabashy , Muhammed Elhadi , Waseem El-Huneidi , Legesse Tesfaye Elilo , Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy , Mohamed A Elmonem , Mohammed Elshaer , Ibrahim Elsohaby , Theophilus I Emeto , Luchuo Engelbert Bain , Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar , Christopher Imokhuede Esezobor , Babak Eshrati , Sharareh Eskandarieh , Juan Espinosa-Montero , Habtamu Esubalew , Farshid Etaee , Natalia Fabin , Adewale Oluwaseun Fadaka , Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe , Ayesha Fahim , Saman Fahimi , Aliasghar Fakhri-Demeshghieh , Luca Falzone , Mohammad Fareed , Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha , MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris , Pawan Sirwan Faris , Andre Faro , Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi , Ali Fatehizadeh , Hamed Fattahi , Nelsensius Klau Fauk , Pooria Fazeli , Valery L Feigin , Alireza Feizkhah , Ginenus Fekadu , Xiaoru Feng , Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad , Abdullah Hamid Feroze , Daniela Ferrante , Alize J Ferrari , Nuno Ferreira , Getahun Fetensa , Bikila Regassa Feyisa , Irina Filip , Florian Fischer , Joanne Flavel , David Flood , Bobirca Teodor Florin , Nataliya A Foigt , Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan , Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov , Behzad Foroutan , Masoud Foroutan , Ingeborg Forthun , Daniela Fortuna , Matteo Foschi , Kayode Raphael Fowobaje , Kate Louise Francis , Richard Charles Franklin , Alberto Freitas , Joseph Friedman , Sara D Friedman , Takeshi Fukumoto , John E Fuller , Blima Fux , Peter Andras Gaal , Muktar A Gadanya , Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane , Santosh Gaihre , Emmanuela Gakidou , Yaseen Galali , Natalie C Galles , Silvano Gallus , Mandukhai Ganbat , Aravind P Gandhi , Balasankar Ganesan , Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani , MA Garcia-Gordillo , William M Gardner , Jalaj Garg , Naval Garg , Rupesh K Gautam , Semiu Olatunde Gbadamosi , Tilaye Gebru Gebi , Miglas W Gebregergis , Mesfin Gebrehiwot , Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel , Simona Roxana Georgescu , Tamirat Getachew , Peter W Gething , Molla Getie , Keyghobad Ghadiri , Sulmaz Ghahramani , Khalid Yaser Ghailan , Mohammad-Reza Ghasemi , Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi , Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh , Ahmad Ghashghaee , Fariba Ghassemi , Ramy Mohamed Ghazy , Ajnish Ghimire , Sama Ghoba , Maryam Gholamalizadeh , Asadollah Gholamian , Ali Gholamrezanezhad , Nasim Gholizadeh , Mahsa Ghorbani , Pooyan Ghorbani Vajargah , Aloke Gopal Ghoshal , Paramjit Singh Gill , Tiffany K Gill , Richard F Gillum , Themba G Ginindza , Alem Girmay , James C Glasbey , Elena V Gnedovskaya , Laszlo Göbölös , Myron Anthony Godinho , Amit Goel , Ali Golchin , Mohamad Goldust , Mahaveer Golechha , Pouya Goleij , Nelson G M Gomes , Philimon N Gona , Sameer Vali Gopalani , Giuseppe Gorini , Houman Goudarzi , Alessandra C Goulart , Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart , Anmol Goyal , Ayman Grada , Simon Matthew Graham , Michal Grivna , Giuseppe Grosso , Shi-Yang Guan , Giovanni Guarducci , Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari , Mesay Dechasa Gudeta , Avirup Guha , Stefano Guicciardi , Rafael Alves Guimarães , Snigdha Gulati , Damitha Asanga Gunawardane , Sasidhar Gunturu , Cui Guo , Anish Kumar Gupta , Bhawna Gupta , Manoj Kumar Gupta , Mohak Gupta , Rajat Das Gupta , Rajeev Gupta , Sapna Gupta , Veer Bala Gupta , Vijai Kumar Gupta , Vivek Kumar Gupta , Lami Gurmessa , Reyna Alma Gutiérrez , Farrokh Habibzadeh , Parham Habibzadeh , Rasool Haddadi , Mostafa Hadei , Najah R Hadi , Nils Haep , Nima Hafezi-Nejad , Alemayehu Hailu , Arvin Haj-Mirzaian , Esam S Halboub , Brian J Hall , Sebastian Haller , Rabih Halwani , Randah R Hamadeh , Sajid Hameed , Samer Hamidi , Erin B Hamilton , Chieh Han , Qiuxia Han , Asif Hanif , Nasrin Hanifi , Graeme J Hankey , Fahad Hanna , Md Abdul Hannan , Md Nuruzzaman Haque , Harapan Harapan , Arief Hargono , Josep Maria Haro , Ahmed I Hasaballah , Ikramul Hasan , M Tasdik Hasan , Hamidreza Hasani , Mohammad Hasanian , Abdiwahab Hashi , Md Saquib Hasnain , Ikrama Hassan , Soheil Hassanipour , Hadi Hassankhani , Johannes Haubold , Rasmus J Havmoeller , Simon I Hay , Jiawei He , Jeffrey J Hebert , Omar E Hegazi , Golnaz Heidari , Mohammad Heidari , Mahsa Heidari-Foroozan , Bartosz Helfer , Delia Hendrie , Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna , Claudiu Herteliu , Hamed Hesami , Kamal Hezam , Catherine L Hill , Yuta Hiraike , Ramesh Holla , Nobuyuki Horita , Md Mahbub Hossain , Sahadat Hossain , Mohammad-Salar Hosseini , Hassan Hosseinzadeh , Mehdi Hosseinzadeh , Ahmad Hosseinzadeh Adli , Mihaela Hostiuc , Sorin Hostiuc , Mohamed Hsairi , Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh , Rebecca L Hsu , Chengxi Hu , Junjie Huang , Michael Hultström , Ayesha Humayun , Tsegaye Gebreyes Hundie , Javid Hussain , M Azhar Hussain , Nawfal R Hussein , Foziya Mohammed Hussien , Hong-Han Huynh , Bing-Fang Hwang , Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye , Khalid S Ibrahim , Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar , Desta Ijo , Adalia I Ikiroma , Kevin S Ikuta , Paul Chukwudi Ikwegbue , Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi , Irena M Ilic , Milena D Ilic , Mohammad Tarique Imam , Mustapha Immurana , Sumant Inamdar , Endang Indriasih , Muhammad Iqhrammullah , Arnaud Iradukunda , Kenneth Chukwuemeka Iregbu , Md Rabiul Islam , Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam , Farhad Islami , Faisal Ismail , Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail , Hiroyasu Iso , Gaetano Isola , Masao Iwagami , Chidozie C D Iwu , Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu , Mahalaxmi Iyer , Linda Merin J , Jalil Jaafari , Louis Jacob , Kathryn H Jacobsen , Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh , Morteza Jafarinia , Abdollah Jafarzadeh , Khushleen Jaggi , Kasra Jahankhani , Nader Jahanmehr , Haitham Jahrami , Nityanand Jain , Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun , Abhishek Jaiswal , Elham Jamshidi , Mark M Janko , Abubakar Ibrahim Jatau , Sabzali Javadov , Tahereh Javaheri , Sathish Kumar Jayapal , Shubha Jayaram , Rime Jebai , Sun Ha Jee , Jayakumar Jeganathan , Anil K Jha , Ravi Prakash Jha , Heng Jiang , Yingzhao Jin , Olatunji Johnson , Mohammad Jokar , Jost B Jonas , Tamas Joo , Abel Joseph , Nitin Joseph , Charity Ehimwenma Joshua , Grace Joshy , Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak , Mikk Jürisson , Vaishali K , Billingsley Kaambwa , Ali Kabir , Zubair Kabir , Vidya Kadashetti , Dler Hussein Kadir , Rizwan Kalani , Laleh R Kalankesh , Leila R Kalankesh , Feroze Kaliyadan , Sanjay Kalra , Vineet Kumar Kamal , Sivesh Kathir Kamarajah , Rajesh Kamath , Zahra Kamiab , Naser Kamyari , Thanigaivelan Kanagasabai , Tanuj Kanchan , Himal Kandel , Arun R Kanmanthareddy , Edmund Wedam Kanmiki , Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi , Suthanthira Kannan S , Sushil Kumar Kansal , Rami S Kantar , Neeti Kapoor , Mehrdad Karajizadeh , Shama D Karanth , Reema A Karasneh , Ibraheem M Karaye , André Karch , Asima Karim , Salah Eddin Karimi , Arman Karimi Behnagh , Faizan Zaffar Kashoo , Qalandar Hussein Abdulkarim Kasnazani , Hengameh Kasraei , Nicholas J Kassebaum , Molly B Kassel , Joonas H Kauppila , Navjot Kaur , Norito Kawakami , Gbenga A Kayode , Foad Kazemi , Sina Kazemian , Tahseen Haider Kazmi , Getu Mosisa Kebebew , Adera Debella Kebede , Fassikaw Kebede , Tibebeselassie S Keflie , Peter Njenga Keiyoro , Cathleen Keller , Jaimon Terence Kelly , John H Kempen , Jessica A Kerr , Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot , Himanshu Khajuria , Amirmohammad Khalaji , Nauman Khalid , Anees Ahmed Khalil , Alireza Khalilian , Faham Khamesipour , Ajmal Khan , Asaduzzaman Khan , Gulfaraz Khan , Ikramullah Khan , Imteyaz A Khan , M Nuruzzaman Khan , Maseer Khan , Mohammad Jobair Khan , Moien AB Khan , Zeeshan Ali Khan , Mahammed Ziauddin Khan suheb , Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi , Khaled Khatab , Fatemeh Khatami , Haitham Khatatbeh , Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh , Armin Khavandegar , Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani , Feriha Fatima Khidri , Elaheh Khodadoust , Mohammad Khorgamphar , Moein Khormali , Zahra Khorrami , Ahmad Khosravi , Mohammad Ali Khosravi , Zemene Demelash Kifle , Grace Kim , Jihee Kim , Kwanghyun Kim , Min Seo Kim , Yun Jin Kim , Ruth W Kimokoti , Kasey E Kinzel , Adnan Kisa , Sezer Kisa , Desmond Klu , Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen , Jonathan M Kocarnik , Sonali Kochhar , Timea Kocsis , David S Q Koh , Ali-Asghar Kolahi , Kairi Kolves , Farzad Kompani , Gerbrand Koren , Soewarta Kosen , Karel Kostev , Parvaiz A Koul , Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana , Kewal Krishan , Hare Krishna , Varun Krishna , Vijay Krishnamoorthy , Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy , Kris J Krohn , Barthelemy Kuate Defo , Burcu Kucuk Bicer , Md Abdul Kuddus , Mohammed Kuddus , Ilari Kuitunen , Mukhtar Kulimbet , Vishnutheertha Kulkarni , Akshay Kumar , Ashish Kumar , Harish Kumar , Manasi Kumar , Rakesh Kumar , Madhulata Kumari , Fantahun Tarekegn Kumie , Satyajit Kundu , Om P Kurmi , Asep Kusnali , Dian
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22¿223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30¿763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31¿642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.Research reported in this publication was supported by the Gates Foundation, UK Department of Health and Social Care, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, and the New Zealand Ministry of Health. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with license no. SLN2019-8-64 and SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law-2000.Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 1836 autors/es: Austin E Schumacher, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Amirali Aali, Cristiana Abbafati, Jaffar Abbas, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Madineh Akram Abbasi, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Michael Abdelmasseh, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Ahmed Abdelwahab, Mohammad Abdollahi, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Ame Mehadi Abdurehman, Mesfin Abebe, Aidin Abedi, Armita Abedi, Tadesse M Abegaz, Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga, E S Abhilash, Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Mohamed Abouzid, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Woldu Aberhe Abrha, Michael R M Abrigo, Dariush Abtahi, Samir Abu Rumeileh, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Salahdein Aburuz, Ahmed Abu-Zaid, Juan Manuel Acuna, Tim Adair, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Oyelola A Adegboye, Victor Adekanmbi, Bashir Aden, Abiola Victor Adepoju, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa, Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye, Rishan Adha, Amin Adibi, Wirawan Adikusuma, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Saryia Adra, Abel Afework, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi, Ali Afraz, Shadi Afyouni, Saira Afzal, Pradyumna Agasthi, Shahin Aghamiri, Antonella Agodi, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Keivan Ahmadi, Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade, Mohadese Ahmadzade, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Luai A Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Budi Aji, Olufemi Ajumobi, Gizachew Taddesse Akalu, Essona Matatom Akara, Karolina Akinosoglou, Sreelatha Akkala, Samuel Akyirem, Hanadi Al Hamad, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Ammar Al Homsi, Mohammad Al Qadire, Moein Ala, Timothy Olukunle Aladelusi, Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal, Samer O Alalalmeh, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Manjurul Alam, Zufishan Alam, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer, Fahad 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Ugochukwu Anthony Eze, Natalia Fabin, Adewale Oluwaseun Fadaka, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Saman Fahimi, Luca Falzone, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris, Mohsen Farjoud Kouhanjani, Andre Faro, Hossein Farrokhpour, Ali Fatehizadeh, Hamed Fattahi, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Pooria Fazeli, Valery L Feigin, Ginenus Fekadu, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Abdullah Hamid Feroze, Daniela Ferrante, Pietro Ferrara, Nuno Ferreira, Getahun Fetensa, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Joanne Flavel, Abraham D Flaxman, Luisa S Flor, Bobirca Teodor Florin, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Kristen Marie Foley, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov, Lisa M Force, Carla Fornari, Behzad Foroutan, Matteo Foschi, Kate Louise Francis, Richard Charles Franklin, Alberto Freitas, Joseph Friedman, Sara D Friedman, Takeshi Fukumoto, John E Fuller, Peter Andras Gaal, Muktar A Gadanya, Santosh Gaihre, Abduzhappar Gaipov, Emmanuela Gakidou, Yaseen Galali, Nasrin Galehdar, Silvano Gallus, Quan Gan, Aravind P Gandhi, Balasankar Ganesan, Jalaj Garg, Shuo-Yan Gau, Prem Gautam, Rupesh K Gautam, Federica Gazzelloni, Miglas W Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Brhane Gebremariam, Urge Gerema, Motuma Erena Getachew, Tamirat Getachew, Peter W Gething, Mansour Ghafourifard, Sulmaz Ghahramani, Khalid Yaser Ghailan, Alireza Ghajar, Mohammad Javad Ghanbarnia, MohammadReza Ghasemi, Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh, Fariba Ghassemi, Ramy Mohamed Ghazy, Sailaja Ghimire, Asadollah Gholamian, Ali Gholamrezanezhad, Pooyan Ghorbani Vajargah, Ghozali Ghozali, Sherief Ghozy, Arun Digambarrao Ghuge, Alessandro Gialluisi, Ruth Margaret Gibson, Artyom Urievich Gil, Paramjit Singh Gill, Tiffany K Gill, Richard F Gillum, Themba G Ginindza, Alem Girmay, James C Glasbey, Elena V Gnedovskaya, Laszlo Göbölös, Amit Goel, Mohamad Goldust, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Arefeh Golestanfar, Davide Golinelli, Philimon N Gona, Houman Goudarzi, Amir Hossein Goudarzian, Anmol Goyal, Scott Greenhalgh, Michal Grivna, Giovanni Guarducci, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Mesay Dechasa Gudeta, Avirup Guha, Stefano Guicciardi, Damitha Asanga Gunawardane, Sasidhar Gunturu, Cui Guo, Anish Kumar Gupta, Bhawna Gupta, Indarchand Ratanlal Gupta, Rajat Das Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vijai Kumar Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Farrokh Habibzadeh, Parham Habibzadeh, Vladimir Hachinski, Mohammad Haddadi, Rasool Haddadi, Nils Haep, Adel Hajj Ali, Esam S Halboub, Sobia Ahsan Halim, Brian J Hall, Sebastian Haller, Rabih Halwani, Randah R Hamadeh, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Samer Hamidi, Mohammad Hamiduzzaman, Ahmad Hammoud, Nasrin Hanifi, Graeme J Hankey, Md Abdul Hannan, Md Nuruzzaman Haque, Harapan Harapan, Josep Maria Haro, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Faizul Hasan, Ikramul Hasan, M Tasdik Hasan, Hamidreza Hasani, Mohammad Hasanian, Ali Hasanpour- Dehkordi, Abbas M Hassan, Amr Hassan, Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam, Soheil Hassanipour, Johannes Haubold, Rasmus J Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Youssef Hbid, Jeffrey J 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Ismail, Gaetano Isola, Masao Iwagami, Chidozie C D Iwu, Chinwe Juliana Iwu-Jaja, Mahalaxmi Iyer, Linda Merin J, Jalil Jaafari, Louis Jacob, Kathryn H Jacobsen, Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh, Morteza Jafarinia, Khushleen Jaggi, Kasra Jahankhani, Nader Jahanmehr, Haitham Jahrami, Akhil Jain, Nityanand Jain, Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Reza Jalilzadeh Yengejeh, Elham Jamshidi, Chinmay T Jani, Mark M Janko, Abubakar Ibrahim Jatau, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Shubha Jayaram, Jayakumar Jeganathan, Alelign Tasew Jema, Digisie Mequanint Jemere, Wonjeong Jeong, Anil K Jha, Ravi Prakash Jha, John S Ji, Heng Jiang, Yingzhao Jin, Yinzi Jin, Olatunji Johnson, Nabi Jomehzadeh, Darwin Phan Jones, Tamas Joo, Abel Joseph, Nitin Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Billingsley Kaambwa, Ali Kabir, Hannaneh Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Vidya Kadashetti, Farima Kahe, Pradnya Vishal Kakodkar, Rizwan Kalani, Leila R Kalankesh, Feroze Kaliyadan, Sanjay Kalra, Ashwin Kamath, Arun Kamireddy, Thanigaivelan Kanagasabai, Himal Kandel, Edmund Wedam Kanmiki, Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi, Rami S Kantar, Neeti Kapoor, Mehrdad Karajizadeh, Behzad Karami Matin, Shama D Karanth, Ibraheem M Karaye, Asima Karim, Hanie Karimi, Salah Eddin Karimi, Arman Karimi Behnagh, Samad Karkhah, Ajit K Karna, Faizan Zaffar Kashoo, Hengameh Kasraei, Nigussie Assefa Kassaw, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Molly B Kassel, Adarsh Katamreddy, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Patrick DMC Katoto, Joonas H Kauppila, Navjot Kaur, Neda Kaydi, Jeanne Françoise Kayibanda, Gbenga A Kayode, Foad Kazemi, Sina Kazemian, Sara Kazeminia, Leila Keikavoosi-Arani, Cathleen Keller, John H Kempen, Jessica A Kerr, Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot, Mohammad Keykhaei, Mohamad Mehdi Khadembashiri, Mohammad Amin Khadembashiri, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Himanshu Khajuria, Mohammad Khalafi, Amirmohammad Khalaji, Nauman Khalid, Ibrahim A Khalil, Faham Khamesipour, Asaduzzaman Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Ikramullah Khan, Imteyaz A Khan, Maseer Khan, Moien AB Khan, Taimoor Khan, Mahammed Ziauddin Khan suheb, Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi, Khaled Khatab, Fatemeh Khatami, Armin Khavandegar, Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani, Khalid A Kheirallah, Feriha Fatima Khidri, Elaheh Khodadoust, Moein Khormali, Mahmood Khosrowjerdi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Helda Khusun, Zemene Demelash Kifle, Grace Kim, Jihee Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Kasey E Kinzel, Girmay Tsegay Kiross, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Juniper Boroka Kiss, Mika Kivimäki, Desmond Klu, Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Farzad Kompani, Gerbrand Koren, Soewarta Kosen, Karel Kostev, Ashwin Laxmikant Kotnis, Parvaiz A Koul, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ai Koyanagi, Michael A Kravchenko, Kewal Krishan, Hare Krishna, Vijay Krishnamoorthy, Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy, Kris J Krohn, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Connor M Kubeisy, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Md Abdul Kuddus, Mohammed Kuddus, Ilari Kuitunen, Omar Kujan, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Vishnutheertha Kulkarni, Ashish Kumar, Harish Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Rahul Kumar, Shiv Kumar, Madhulata Kumari, Almagul Kurmanova, Om P Kurmi, Asep Kusnali, Dian Kusuma, Tezer Kutluk, Ambily Kuttikkattu, Evans F Kyei, Ilias Kyriopoulos, Carlo La Vecchia, Muhammad Awwal Ladan, Lucie Laflamme, Chandrakant Lahariya, Abdelilah Lahmar, Daphne Teck Ching Lai, Tri Laksono, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Judit Lám, Demetris Lamnisos, Tuo Lan, Francesco Lanfranchi, Berthold Langguth, Van Charles Lansingh, Ariane Laplante-Lévesque, Bagher Larijani, Anders O Larsson, Savita Lasrado, Kamaluddin Latief, Mahrukh Latif, Kaveh Latifinaibin, Paolo Lauriola, Long Khanh Dao Le, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Thao Thi Thu Le, Trang Diep Thanh Le, Munjae Lee, Paul H Lee, Sang-woong Lee, Seung Won Lee, Wei-Chen Lee, Yo Han Lee, Samson Mideksa Legesse, James Leigh, Jacopo Lenzi, Elvynna Leong, Temesgen L Lerango, Ming-Chieh Li, Wei Li, Xiaopan Li, Yichong Li, Zhihui Li, Massimo Libra, Virendra S Ligade, Andrew Tiyamike Makhiringa Likaka, Lee-Ling Lim, Ro-Ting Lin, Shuzhi Lin, Vasileios-Arsenios Lioutas, Stefan Listl, Jue Liu, Simin Liu, Xiaofeng Liu, Katherine M Livingstone, Erand Llanaj, Chun-Han Lo, Arianna Maever Loreche, László Lorenzovici, Mojgan Lotfi, Masoud Lotfizadeh, Rafael Lozano, Jailos Lubinda, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Alessandra Lugo, Raimundas Lunevicius, Jianing Ma, Stefan Ma, Zheng Feei Ma, Mahmoud Mabrok, Nikolaos Machairas, Monika Machoy, Christian Madsen, Javier A Magaña Gómez, Azzam A Maghazachi, Sandeep B Maharaj, Preeti Maharjan, Soleiman Mahjoub, Mansour Adam Mahmoud, Elham Mahmoudi, Morteza Mahmoudi, Omar Mohamed Makram, Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Reza Malekzadeh, Armaan K Malhotra, Kashish Malho
Evaluating the Appropriate Use Criteria for Coronary Revascularization in Stable Ischemic Heart Disease Using Randomized Data From the ISCHEMIA Trial
No full textBACKGROUND: The appropriate use criteria for revascularization of stable ischemic heart disease have not been evaluated using randomized data. Using data from the randomized ISCHEMIA trial (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness with Medical and Invasive Approaches; July 2012 to January 2018, 37 countries), the health status benefits of an invasive strategy over a conservative one were examined within appropriate use criteria scenarios. METHODS: Among 1833 participants mapped to 36 appropriate use criteria scenarios, symptom status was assessed using the Seattle Angina Questionnaire-7 at 1 year for each scenario and for each of the 6 patient characteristics used to define the scenarios. Coronary anatomy and SYNTAX(Synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with Taxus and cardiac surgery) scores were measured using coronary computed tomography angiography. Treatment effects are expressed as an odds ratio for a better health status outcome with an invasive versus conservative treatment strategy using Bayesian hierarchical proportional odds models. Differences in the primary clinical outcome were similarly examined. RESULTS: The mean age was 63 years, 81% were male, and 71% were White. Diabetes was present in 28% and multivessel disease in 51%. Most clinical scenarios favored invasive for better 1-year health status. The benefit of an invasive strategy on Seattle Angina Questionnaire angina frequency scores was reduced for asymptomatic patients (odds ratio [95% credible interval], 1.16 [0.66-1.71] versus 2.26 [1.75-2.80]), as well as for those on no antianginal medications. Diabetes, number of diseased vessels, proximal left anterior descending coronary artery location, and SYNTAX score did not effectively identify patients with better health status after invasive treatment, and minimal differences in clinical events were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Applying the randomization scheme from the ISCHEMIA trial to appropriate clinical scenarios revealed baseline symptoms and antianginal therapy to be the primary drivers of health status benefits from invasive management. Consideration should be given to reducing the patient characteristics collected to generate appropriateness ratings to improve the feasibility of future data collection
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation
