7 research outputs found
Genotypic differences in body weight and physiological response of local and exotic turkeys challenged with Salmonella typhimurium
No full textTo better understand susceptibility and/ or tolerance of locally adapted turkey to salmonellosis, we compared bodyweight, antibody titres and physiological traits based on genotype and sex of salmonella-infected turkeys. Three hundred poults from two genotypes (160 local and 140 exotic turkeys) were raised for twenty weeks. Bodyweight (BW), rectal temperature (RT), pulse rate (PR) and respiratory rate (RR) were measured weekly. Blood samples were collected from each turkey before and after inoculations at week 8 and 13 for serum antibody detection using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Genotype had a significant (p 0.05) effect on all the parameters measured. Exotic turkey had higher weight than local while sexual dimorphism was in favour of toms despite challenge with Salmonella typhimurium. The RT was significantly higher (p 0.05) in exotic turkeys except at week 2, 6 and 8. In like manner, PR was higher (p 0.05) in exotic turkey except at week 4 (204.28±2.48 beats/minutes) and 8 (216.98±1.46 beats/minutes) where it was higher in local turkey. RR also followed the same trend while HSI was higher (p 0.05) in week 2 (1.53±0.06 breaths/minutes) and 14 (1.17±0.07 breaths/minutes) in exotic turkeys. Local turkeys had higher (p 0.05) antibodies against Salmonella organisms before and after inoculation while the hens of both genotypes had higher (p 0.05) antibody titres at the 7th day after inoculations. The present results seemed not to be convincing enough to suggest differences in tolerance/susceptibility to Salmonella infection and therefore the two genotypes may be equally adapted
Haemoparasite Prevalence, Genetic Diversity of TLR2B Gene and Relationship with Haematological Parameters in Chicken
No full textHaemoparasite constitute a major challenge in native chicken production in Africa. This study determines the genetic diversity and the effect of TLR2B gene polymorphism on haemoparasite and haematology of the chickens based on genotype and sex. 600 chickens of 25 weeks old consisting of Naked neck (NN), Normal feather (NF), and the Frizzle feather (FF) reared in battery cage-system were sampled for blood and analyzed for haematology, parasite occurrence and load, polymerase chain reaction, and gene sequencing. Polymorphisms were detected and their effect on haematology was determined. Results showed the occurrence of Plasmodium gallinacieum, Trypanosoma brucei, and Leucocytozoon schoutedeni with NF having the highest occurrence followed by NN and FF chicken genotype. There was a significant (P <0.05) effect of genotype and sex on haematology. Seven of the eight polymorphism detected were singleton and found only in NF while parsimonious 656GA was detected in all the chicken genotypes with no relationship with haematology and haemoparasite. NF had the highest nucleotide (0.00114) and haplotype diversity (0.584). The study revealed the occurrence of genetic variation in TLR2B gene, haematology, and haemoparasite in FUNAAB Alpha chickens which could provide baseline information in future breeding programmes of the chicken for the tropical environment
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textNatalia V Bhattacharjee, Austin E Schumacher, Amirali Aali, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Hedayat Abbastabar, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Mohammad Abdollahi, Mohammad-Amin Abdollahifar, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Mesfin Abebe, Samrawit Shawel Abebe, Olumide Abiodun, Hassan Abolhassani, Meysam Abolmaali, Mohamed Abouzid, Girma Beressa Aboye, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Woldu Aberhe Abrha, Michael R M Abrigo, Dariush Abtahi, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Tadele Girum Girum Adal, Mesafint Molla Adane, Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Adeagbo, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Bashir Aden, Abiola Victor Adepoju, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka, Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Saryia Adra, Rotimi Felix Afolabi, Shadi Afyouni, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Afzal, Shahin Aghamiri, Antonella Agodi, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Austin J Ahlstrom, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Ali Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Luai A Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Budi Aji, Gizachew Taddesse Akalu, Hossein Akbarialiabad, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Sreelatha Akkala, Hanadi Al Hamad, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Mohammad Al Qadire, Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal, Samer O Alalalmeh, Tariq A Alalwan, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Almaza Albakri, Mohammed Albashtawy, Mohammad T AlBataineh, Hediyeh Alemi, Sharifullah Alemi, Yihun Mulugeta Alemu, Ayman Al-Eyadhy, Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi, Khalid F Alhabib, Noora Alhajri, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Abid Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Liaqat Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Mohammad Aligol, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Mohammad A M Aljasir, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Sabah Al-Marwani, Joseph Uy Almazan, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Omar Almidani, Mahmoud A Alomari, Basem Al-Omari, Jaber S Alqahtani, Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Awais Altaf, Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq, Khalid A Altirkawi, Deborah Oyine Aluh, Farrukh Jawad Alvi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Hassan Alwafi, Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi, Hany Aly, Safwat Aly, Karem H Alzoubi, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, Mostafa Amini-Rarani, Sohrab Amiri, Irene Gyamfuah Ampomah, Dickson A Amugsi, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Robert Ancuceanu, Deanna Anderlini, Pedro Prata Andrade, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Abhishek Anil, Sneha Anil, Adnan Ansar, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Catherine M Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Saeid Anvari, SALEHA ANWAR, Razique Anwer, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Jalal Arabloo, Razman Arabzadeh Bahri, Elshaimaa A Arafa, Mosab Arafat, Ana Margarida Araújo, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Abdulfatai Aremu, Timur Aripov, Mesay Arkew, Benedetta Armocida, Johan Ärnlöv, Mahwish Arooj, Anton A Artamonov, Judie Arulappan, Raphael Taiwo Aruleba, Ashokan Arumugam, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, Zatollah Asemi, Saeed Asgary, Mona Asghariahmadabad, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mubarek Yesse Ashemo, Muhammad Ashraf, Tahira Ashraf, Marvellous O Asika, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout, Alok Atreya, Avinash Aujayeb, Marcel Ausloos, Abolfazl Avan, Amlaku Mulat Aweke, Getnet Melaku Ayele, Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh, Sina Azadnajafabad, Rui M S Azevedo, Ahmed Y Azzam, Muhammad Badar, Ashish D Badiye, Soroush Baghdadi, Nasser Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Najmeh Bahmanziari, Ruhai Bai, Atif Amin Baig, Jennifer L Baker, Abdulaziz T Bako, Ravleen Kaur Bakshi, Madhan Balasubramanian, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Kiran Bam, Maciej Banach, Soham Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit Banik, Palash Chandra Banik, Hansi Bansal, Mehmet Firat Baran, Martina Barchitta, Mainak Bardhan, Erfan Bardideh, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Francesco Barone-Adesi, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Amadou Barrow, Sandra Barteit, Zarrin Basharat, Asma'u I J Bashir, Hameed Akande Bashiru, Afisu Basiru, João Diogo Basso, Sanjay Basu, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha, Kavita Batra, Bernhard T Baune, Mohsen Bayati, Tahmina Begum, Emad Behboudi, Amir Hossein Behnoush, Maryam Beiranvand, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Alehegn Bekele, Sefealem Assefa Belay, Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi, Michelle L Bell, Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello, Apostolos Beloukas, Isabela M Bensenor, Zombor Berezvai, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Amiel Nazer C Bermudez, Paulo J G Bettencourt, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Prarthna V Bhardwaj, Sonu Bhaskar, Vivek Bhat, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Manpreet S Bhatti, Rajbir Bhatti, Antonio Biondi, Catherine Bisignano, Atanu Biswas, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Veera R Bitra, Tone Bjørge, Elye Bliss, Micheal Kofi Boachie, Anca Vasilica Bobirca, Virginia Bodolica, Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin, Eyob Ketema Bogale, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Milad Bonakdar Hashemi, Berrak Bora Basara, Souad Bouaoud, Dejana Braithwaite, Michael Brauer, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Dana Bryazka, Norma B Bulamu, Danilo Buonsenso, Katrin Burkart, Richard A Burns, Yasser Bustanji, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Daniela Calina, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Fan Cao, Shujin Cao, Angelo Capodici, Giulia Carreras, Andrea Carugno, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Giulio Castelpietra, Maria Sofia Cattaruzza, Arthur Caye, Luca Cegolon, Francieli Cembranel, Ester Cerin, Joshua Chadwick, Yaacoub Chahine, Chiranjib Chakraborty, Julian Chalek, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan, Periklis Charalampous, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Sarika Chaturvedi, Malizgani Paul Chavula, An-Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Simiao Chen, Gerald Chi, Fatemeh Chichagi, Ju-Huei Chien, Patrick R Ching, William C S Cho, Sungchul Choi, Bryan Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Sonali Gajanan Choudhari, Devasahayam J Christopher, Dinh-Toi Chu, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Eric Chung, Sheng-Chia Chung, Zinhle Cindi, Iolanda Cioffi, Raffaela Ciuffreda, Rafael M Claro, Kaleb Coberly, Alyssa Columbus, Haley Comfort, Joao Conde, Michael H Criqui, Natália Cruz-Martins, Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernández, Sriharsha Dadana, Omid Dadras, Tukur Dahiru, Zhaoli Dai, Bronte Dalton, Giovanni Damiani, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Jai K Das, Saswati Das, Mohsen Dashti, Anna Dastiridou, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Kairat Davletov, Aklilu Tamire Debele, Shayom Debopadhaya, Somayeh Delavari, Ivan Delgado-Enciso, Dessalegn Demeke, Berecha Hundessa Demessa, Xinlei Deng, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Rupak Desai, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Arkadeep Dhali, Kuldeep Dhama, Meghnath Dhimal, Vishal R Dhulipala, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Diaz, Michael J Diaz, Adriana Dima, Delaney D Ding, M Ashworth Dirac, Thanh Chi Do, Thao Huynh Phuong Do, Camila Bruneli do Prado, Sushil Dohare, Wanyue Dong, Mario D'Oria, Wendel Mombaque dos Santos, Leila Doshmangir, Robert Kokou Dowou, Ashel Chelsea Dsouza, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Viola Dsouza, John Dube, Joe Duprey, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Senbagam Duraisamy, Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye, Sulagna Dutta, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Alireza Ebrahimi, Hisham Atan Edinur, Kristina Edvardsson, Ferry Efendi, Terje Andreas Eikemo, Michael Ekholuenetale, Maha El Tantawi, Noha Mousaad Elemam, Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary, Muhammed Elhadi, Legesse Tesfaye Elilo, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy, Mohamed A Elmonem, Mohammed Elshaer, Ibrahim Elsohaby, Amir Emami Zeydi, Luchuo Engelbert Bain, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Francesco Esposito, Kara Estep, Farshid Etaee, Natalia Fabin, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Saman Fahimi, Aliasghar Fakhri-Demeshghieh, Luca Falzone, Ali Faramarzi, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris, Sam Farmer, Andre Faro, Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi, Ali Fatehizadeh, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Pooria Fazeli, Valery L Feigin, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Abdullah Hamid Feroze, Pietro Ferrara, Nuno Ferreira, Getahun Fetensa, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Joanne Flavel, Nataliya A Foigt, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov, Behzad Foroutan, Matteo Foschi, Kayode Raphael Fowobaje, Kate Louise Francis, Alberto Freitas, Takeshi Fukumoto, John E Fuller, Blima Fux, Peter Andras Gaal, Muktar A Gadanya, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Yaseen Galali, Silvano Gallus, Aravind P Gandhi, Balasankar Ganesan, Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani, M.A. Garcia-Gordillo, Naval Garg, Rupesh K Gautam, Federica Gazzelloni, Semiu Olatunde Gbadamosi, Miglas W Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Brhane Gebremariam, Tesfay B B Gebremariam, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Yohannes Fikadu Geda, Simona Roxana Georgescu, Urge Gerema, Habtamu Geremew, Motuma Erena Getachew, Peter W Gething, MohammadReza Ghasemi, Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi, Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh, Fariba Ghassemi, Ramy Mohamed Ghazy, Sailaja Ghimire, Asadollah Gholamian, Ali Gholamrezanezhad, Mahsa Ghorbani, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Arun Digambarrao Ghuge, Artyom Urievich Gil, Tiffany K Gill, Matteo Giorgi, Alem Girmay, James C Glasbey, Laszlo Göbölös, Amit Goel, Ali Golchin, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Houman Goudarzi, Alessandra C Goulart, Anmol Goyal, Simon Matthew Graham, Michal Grivna, Shi-Yang Guan, Giovanni Guarducci, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Mesay Dechasa Gudeta, Stefano Guicciardi, Snigdha Gulati, David Gulisashvili, Damitha Asanga Gunawardane, Cui Guo, Anish Kumar Gupta, Bhawna Gupta, Manoj Kumar Gupta, Mohak Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vijai Kumar Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Annie Haakenstad, Farrokh Habibzadeh, Najah R Hadi, Nils Haep, Ramtin Hajibeygi, Sebastian Haller, Rabih Halwani, Randah R Hamadeh, Nadia M Hamdy, Sajid Hameed, Samer Hamidi, Qiuxia Han, Alexis J Handal, Graeme J Hankey, Md Nuruzzaman Haque, Josep Maria Haro, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Ikramul Hasan, Mohammad Jahid Hasan, S.M. Mahmudul Hasan, Hamidreza Hasani, Md Saquib Hasnain, Amr Hassan, Ikrama Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Hadi Hassankhani, Simon I Hay, Jeffrey J Hebert, Omar E Hegazi, Mohammad Heidari, Bartosz Helfer, Mehdi Hemmati, Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna, Claudiu Herteliu, Kamran Hessami, Kamal Hezam, Yuta Hiraike, Nguyen Quoc Hoan, Ramesh Holla, Nobuyuki Horita, Md Mahbub Hossain, Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mohamed Hsairi, Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh, Chengxi Hu, Junjie Huang, M Mamun Huda, Ayesha Humayun, Javid Hussain, Nawfal R Hussein, Hong-Han Huynh, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Mustapha Immurana, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Afrin Iqbal, Md. Rabiul Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Hiroyasu Iso, Gaetano Isola, Masao Iwagami, Mahalaxmi Iyer, Linda Merin J, Jalil Jaafari, Louis Jacob, Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh, Khushleen Jaggi, Kasra Jahankhani, Nader Jahanmehr, Haitham Jahrami, Akhil Jain, Nityanand Jain, Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Elham Jamshidi, Sabzali Javadov, Tahereh Javaheri, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Shubha Jayaram, Sun Ha Jee, Jayakumar Jeganathan, Anil K Jha, Ravi Prakash Jha, Heng Jiang, Mohammad Jokar, Jost B Jonas, Tamas Joo, Nitin Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Vaishali K, Billingsley Kaambwa, Abdulkareem Kabir, Ali Kabir, Hannaneh Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Rizwan Kalani, Leila R Kalankesh, Feroze Kaliyadan, Sanjay Kalra, Rajesh Kamath, Sagarika Kamath, Tanuj Kanchan, Edmund Wedam Kanmiki, Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi, Suthanthira Kannan S, Sushil Kumar Kansal, Rami S Kantar, Neeti Kapoor, Mehrdad Karajizadeh, Manoochehr Karami, Ibraheem M Karaye, Faizan Zaffar Kashoo, Hengameh Kasraei, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Molly B Kassel, Joonas H Kauppila, Foad Kazemi, sara Kazeminia, John H Kempen, Evie Shoshannah Kendal, Kamyab Keshtkar, Mohammad Keykhaei, Himanshu Khajuria, Amirmohammad Khalaji, Nauman Khalid, Anees Ahmed Khalil, Alireza Khalilian, Faham Khamesipour, Ajmal Khan, Asaduzzaman Khan, Ikramullah Khan, M Nuruzzaman Khan, Maseer Khan, Mohammad Jobair Khan, Moien AB Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi, Khaled Khatab, Armin Khavandegar, Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani, Feriha Fatima Khidri, Moein Khormali, Mohammad Ali Khosravi, Mahmood Khosrowjerdi, Wondwosen Teklesilasie Kidane, Zemene Demelash Kifle, Julie Sojin Kim, Min Seo Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Kasey E Kinzel, Girmay Tsegay Kiross, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Farzad Kompani, Gerbrand Koren, Oleksii Korzh, Soewarta Kosen, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Kewal Krishan, Varun Krishna, Vijay Krishnamoorthy, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Connor M Kubeisy, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Md Abdul Kuddus, Mohammed Kuddus, Ilari Kuitunen, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Harish Kumar, Satyajit Kundu, Kunle Rotimi Kunle, Om P Kurmi, Asep Kusnali, Dian Kusuma, Evans F Kyei, Ilias Kyriopoulos, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Muhammad Awwal Ladan, Lucie Laflamme, Chandrakant Lahariya, Daphne Teck Ching Lai, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Judit Lám, Demetris Lamnisos, Iván Landires, Francesco Lanfranchi, Berthold Langguth, Ariane Laplante-Lévesque, Heidi Jane Larson, Anders O Larsson, Savita Lasrado, Kamaluddin Latief, Kaveh Latifinaibin, Long Khanh Dao Le, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Trang Diep Thanh Le, Caterina Ledda, Munjae Lee, Paul H Lee, Seung Won Lee, Yo Han Lee, Gebretsadik Kiros Lema, Elvynna Leong, Temesgen L Lerango, An Li, Ming-Chieh Li, Shanshan Li, Wei Li, Xiaopan Li, Virendra S Ligade, Stephen S Lim, Ro-Ting Lin, Paulina A Lindstedt, Stefan Listl, Gang Liu, Jue Liu, Xiaofeng Liu, Xuefeng Liu, Yuewei Liu, Erand Llanaj, Rubén López-Bueno, Platon D Lopukhov, László Lorenzovici, Paulo A Lotufo, Jailos Lubinda, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Alessandra Lugo, Raimundas Lunevicius, Hengliang Lv, Zheng Feei Ma, Kelsey Lynn Maass, Monika Machoy, Áurea M Madureira-Carvalho, Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Azzam A Maghazachi, Soleiman Mahjoub, Mansour Adam Mahmoud, Azeem Majeed, Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Kashish Malhotra, Ahmad Azam Malik, Iram Malik, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A Mamun, Yosef Manla, Yasaman Mansoori, Ali Mansour, Borhan Mansouri, Zeinab Mansouri, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Joemer C Maravilla, Mirko Marino, Abdoljalal Marjani, Gabriel Martinez, Ramon Martinez-Piedra, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Miquel Martorell, Sharmeen Maryam, Roy Rillera Marzo, Alireza Masoudi, Jishanth Mattumpuram, Richard James Maude, Andrea Maugeri, Erin A May, Mahsa Mayeli, Maryam Mazaheri, John J McGrath, Martin McKee, Anna Laura Wensel McKowen, Susan A McLaughlin, Steven M McPhail, Rahul Mehra, Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Tesfahun Mekene Meto, Max Alberto Mendez Mendez-Lopez, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, George A Mensah, Alexios-Fotios A Mentis, Sultan Ayoub Meo, Mohsen Merati, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Abera M Mersha, Tomislav Mestrovic, Pouya Metanat, Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda, Sachith Mettananda, Adquate Mhlanga, Laurette Mhlanga, Tianyue Mi, Tomasz Miazgowski, Georgia Micha, Irmina Maria Michalek, Ted R Miller, Le Huu Nhat Minh, Mojgan Mirghafourvand, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Mizan Kiros Mirutse, Moonis Mirza, Roya Mirzaei, Ashim Mishra, Sanjeev Misra, Philip B Mitchell, Chaitanya Mittal, Babak Moazen, Abdalla Z Mohamed, Ahmed Ismail Mohamed, Jama Mohamed, Mouhand F H Mohamed, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Sakineh Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi, Soheil Mohammadi, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Mustapha Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Peyman Mokhtarzadehazar, Hossein Molavi Vardanjani, Sabrina Molinaro, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohammad Ali Moni, Maryam Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Paula Moraga, Rafael Silveira Moreira, Negar Morovatdar, Shane Douglas Morrison, Jakub Morze, Abbas Mosapour, Elias Mossialos, Rohith Motappa, Parsa Mousavi, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa, Sumaira Mubarik, Lorenzo Muccioli, Francesk Mulita, Kavita Munjal, Efrén Murillo-Zamora, Jonah Musa, Fungai Musaigwa, Ana-Maria Musina, Sathish Muthu, Saravanan Muthupandian, Muhammad Muzaffar, Woojae Myung, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gabriele Nagel, Pirouz Naghavi, Ganesh R Naik, Gurudatta Naik, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Firzan Nainu, Vinay Nangia, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Gustavo G Nascimento, Abdallah Y Naser, Mohammad Javad Nasiri, Zuhair S Natto, Javaid Nauman, Muhammad Naveed, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Vinod C Nayak, Rawlance Ndejjo, Sabina Onyinye Nduaguba, Hadush Negash, Chernet Tafere Negesse, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Chakib Nejjari, Samata Nepal, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Georges Nguefack-Tsague, Josephine W. 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Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textFunding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 1420 autors/es. Membres del GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators:
Stein Emil Vollset*, Hazim S Ababneh, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Hedayat Abbastabar, Abdallah H A Abd Al Magied, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Atef Abdelkader, Michael Abdelmasseh, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Parsa Abdi, Mohammad Abdollahi, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Mesfin Abebe, Olumide Abiodun, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Mohamed Abouzid, Girma Beressa Aboye, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Abdorrahim Absalan, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Hana Jihad Jihad Abukhadijah, Giovanni Addolorato, Victor Adekanmbi, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa, Rishan Adha, Ripon Kumar Adhikary, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Leticia Akua Adzigbli, Fatemeh Afrashteh, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Afzal, Faith Agbozo, Antonella Agodi, Anurag Agrawal, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Austin J Ahlstrom, Aqeel Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Shahzaib 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Mahadeshwara Prasad, Mehrdad Mahalleh, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Mansour Adam Mahmoud, Elham Mahmoudi, Golnaz Mahmoudvand, Maureen Makama, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Kashish Malhotra, Ahmad Azam Malik, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Yosef Manla, Ali Mansour, Mohammad Hadi Mansouri, Pejman Mansouri, Vahid Mansouri, Marjan Mansourian, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Bishnu P Marasini, Hamid Reza Marateb, Joemer C Maravilla, Parham Mardi, Abdoljalal Marjani, Hamed Markazi Moghadam, Carlos Alberto Marrugo Arnedo, Gabriel Martinez, Ramon Martinez-Piedra, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Miquel Martorell, Wolfgang Marx, Roy Rillera Marzo, Sahar Masoudi, Yasith Mathangasinghe, Alexander G Mathioudakis, Medha Mathur, Navgeet Mathur, Neeta Mathur, Fernanda Penido Matozinhos, Jishanth Mattumpuram, Richard James Maude, Andrea Maugeri, Mahsa Mayeli, Mohsen Mazidi, Antonio Mazzotti, John J McGrath, Martin McKee, Anna Laura W McKowen, Michael A McPhail, Steven M McPhail, Asim Mehmood, Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Sepideh Mehravar, Tesfahun Mekene Meto, Endalkachew Belayneh Melese, Max Alberto Mendez Mendez-Lopez, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, George A Mensah, Laverne G Mensah, Alexios-Fotios A Mentis, Sultan Ayoub Meo, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Abera M Mersha, Tomislav Mestrovic, Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda, Sachith Mettananda, Adquate Mhlanga, Laurette Mhlanga, Tomasz Miazgowski, Irmina Maria Michalek, Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá, Ted R Miller, Le Huu Nhat Minh, Alireza Mirahmadi, Antonio Mirijello, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Roya Mirzaei, Philip B Mitchell, Chaitanya Mittal, Madeline E Moberg, Atousa Moghadam Fard, Seyedehfatemeh Mohajelin, Ashraf Mohamadkhani, Ahmed Ismail Mohamed, Jama Mohamed, Mouhand F H Mohamed, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Ameen Mosa Mohammad, Soheil Mohammadi, Hussen Mohammed, Mustapha Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Shaher Mohammad Momani, Sara Momtazmanesh, Lorenzo Monasta, Stefania Mondello, Mohammad Ali Moni, Fateme Montazeri, AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf, Maryam Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Paula Moraga, Lidia Morawska, Rafael Silveira Moreira, Negar Morovatdar, Shane Douglas Morrison, Abbas Mosapour, Jonathan F Mosser, Elias Mossialos, Rohith Motappa, Vincent Mougin, Parsa Mousavi, Matías Mrejen, Sumaira Mubarik, Ulrich Otto Mueller, Francesk Mulita, Kavita Munjal, Efrén Murillo-Zamora, Khaled M Musallam, Ana-Maria Musina, Ghulam Mustafa, Woojae Myung, Ayoub Nafei, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Pirouz Naghavi, Ganesh R Naik, Gurudatta Naik, Firzan Nainu, Soroush Najdaghi, Noureddin Nakhostin Ansari, Vinay Nangia, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Shumaila Nargus, Delaram Narimani Davani, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Gustavo G Nascimento, Abdallah Y Naser, Abdulqadir J Nashwan, Zuhair S Natto, Javaid Nauman, Samidi N K Navaratna, Muhammad Naveed, Nawsherwan , Biswa Prakash Nayak, Vinod C Nayak, Hadush Negash, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Chakib Nejjari, Soroush Nematollahi, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Marie Ng, Georges Nguefack-Tsague, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Anh Hoang Nguyen, Dang H Nguyen, Duc Hoang Nguyen, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Nhan Nguyen, Nhien Ngoc Y Nguyen, Phat Tuan Nguyen, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Van Thanh Nguyen, Duc Nguyen Tran Minh, Robina Khan Niazi, Yeshambel T Nigatu, Mahdieh Niknam, Ali Nikoobar, Amin Reza Nikpoor, Nasrin Nikravangolsefid, Efaq Ali Noman, Shuhei Nomura, Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor, Nafise Noroozi, Mehran Nouri, Majid Nozari, Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi, George Ntaios, Mengistu H Nunemo, Dieta Nurrika, Jerry John Nutor, Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, Bogdan Oancea, Kehinde O Obamiro, Ismail A Odetokun, Michael Safo Oduro, Oluwaseun Adeolu Ogundijo, Adesola Adenike Ogunfowokan, Abiola Ogunkoya, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade, In-Hwan Oh, Tolulope R Ojo-Akosile, Hassan Okati-Aliabad, Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Andrew T Olagunju, Matthew Idowu Olatubi, Gláucia Maria Moraes Oliveira, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Yinka Doris Oluwafemi, Hany A Omar, Goran Latif Omer, Sokking Ong, Sandersan Onie, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Abdulahi Opejin Opejin, Michal Ordak, Verner N Orish, Alberto Ortiz, Esteban Ortiz-Prado, Wael M S Osman, Sergej M Ostojic, Samuel M Ostroff, Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu, Adrian Otoiu, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Amel Ouyahia, Mayowa O Owolabi, Oyetunde T Oyeyemi, Ahmad Ozair, Mahesh Padukudru P A, Alicia Padron-Monedero, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Pramod Kumar Pal, Tamás Palicz, Feng Pan, Hai-Feng Pan, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Anamika Pandey, Victoria Pando-Robles, Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan, Georgios D Panos, Leonidas D Panos, Ioannis Pantazopoulos, Anca Mihaela Pantea Stoian, Romil R Parikh, Eun-Kee Park, Seoyeon Park, Sungchul Park, Nicholas Parsons, Ashwaghosha Parthasarathi, Maja Pasovic, Roberto Passera, Jay Patel, Aslam Ramjan Pathan, Shankargouda Patil, Dimitrios Patoulias, Shrikant Pawar, Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi, Spencer A Pease, Amy E Peden, Paolo Pedersini, Umberto Pensato, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Prince Peprah, Marcos Pereira, Maria Odete Pereira, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Norberto Perico, Simone Perna, Konrad Pesudovs, Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha, Hoang Tran Pham, Anil K Philip, Michael R Phillips, Manon Pigeolet, Michael A Piradov, Enrico Pisoni, Evgenii Plotnikov, Dimitri Poddighe, Roman V Polibin, Ramesh Poluru, Ville T Ponkilainen, Djordje S Popovic, Maarten J Postma, Ahmad Pour-Rashidi, Disha Prabhu, Sergio I Prada, Jalandhar Pradhan, Pranil Man Singh Pradhan, Akila Prashant, Elton Junio Sady Prates, Tina Priscilla, Hery Purnobasuki, Bharathi M Purohit, Jagadeesh Puvvula, Nameer Hashim Qasim, Ibrahim Qattea, Asma Saleem Qazi, Gangzhen Qian, Mehrdad Rabiee Rad, Venkatraman Radhakrishnan, Hadi Raeisi Shahraki, Quinn Rafferty, Alberto Raggi, Cat Raggi, Nasiru Raheem, Fakher Rahim, Md Jillur Rahim, Sarvenaz Rahimibarghani, Md Mijanur Mijanur Rahman Rahman, Mosiur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Tafhimur Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Mohammad Rahmanian, Nazanin Rahmanian, Rahem Rahmati, Setyaningrum Rahmawaty, Diego Raimondo, Adarsh Raja, Prashant Rajput, Majed Ramadan, Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy, Sheena Ramazanu, Pramod W Ramteke, Kritika Rana, Rishabh Kumar Rana, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Amey Rane, Chythra R Rao, Mithun Rao, Davide Rasella, Vahid Rashedi, Ahmed Mustafa Rashid, Ashkan Rasouli-Saravani, Prateek Rastogi, Azad Rasul, Devarajan Rathish, Giridhara Rathnaiah Babu, Santosh Kumar Rauniyar, Ramin Ravangard, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Rabail Zehra Raza, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan, Lennart Reifels, Marissa B Reitsma, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Kannan RR Rengasamy, Bhageerathy Reshmi, Serge Resnikoff, Stefano Restaino, Luis Felipe Reyes, Nazila Rezaei, Negar Rezaei, Zahra Sadat Rezaei, Mohsen Rezaeian, Taeho Gregory Rhee, Jennifer Rickard, Toshana Robalik, Hannah Elizabeth Robinson-Oden, Hermano Alexandre Lima Rocha, Mónica Rodrigues, Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez, Leonardo Roever, Debby Syahru Romadlon, Luca Ronfani, Moustaq Karim Khan Rony, Gholamreza Roshandel, Kunle Rotimi, Himanshu Sekhar Rout, Bedanta Roy, Enrico Rubagotti, Guilherme de Andrade Ruela, Susan Fred Rumisha, Tilleye Runghien, Michele Russo, Aly M A Saad, Korosh Saber, Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad, Cameron John Sabet, Siamak Sabour, Perminder S Sachdev, Adam Saddler, Bashdar Abuzed Sadee, Masoumeh Sadeghi, Mohammad Reza Saeb, Umar Saeed, Sher Zaman Safi, Rajesh Sagar, Alireza Saghafi, Dominic Sagoe, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Pragyan Monalisa Sahoo, Mirza Rizwan Sajid, Nasir Salam, Payman Salamati, Afeez Abolarinwa Salami, Mohamed A Saleh, Leili Salehi, Marwa Rashad Salem, Aanuoluwa James Salemcity, Sohrab Salimi, Hossein Samadi Kafil, Saad Samargandy, Yoseph Leonardo Samodra, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Francesca Sanna, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Aswini Saravanan, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Gargi Sachin Sarode, Sachin C Sarode, Benn Sartorius, Maheswar Satpathy, Abu Sayeed, Nikolaos Scarmeas, Benedikt Michael Schaarschmidt, Christophe Schinckus, Art Schuermans, Austin E Schumacher, Aletta Elisabeth Schutte, David C Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Siddharthan Selvaraj, Mohammad H Semreen, Sabyasachi Senapati, Pallav Sengupta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Dragos Serban, Yashendra Sethi, All
Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBurden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
