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Depopulacija i duboko starenje: prostor bivše Jugoslavije i zapadnog Balkana između druge demografske tranzicije i emigracije
No full textThe article introduces the tentative concept of deep aging – a label used for a situation when the overall ageing effects of the second demographic transition, due to fertility below replacement level, are topped by the excessive emigration of the fertile contingent (additional loss of active population). Deep ageing thus accelerates population decline. But the loss of fertile contingent may affect the total fertility rates and its apparent rise (TFR). Here, the tempo effect of fertility plays the decisive role. The article first assesses the demographic change in the European macroregions in the period after the fall of the Iron Curtain (1990–2020). It then analyses the changes in the area of former Yugoslavia to assess the extent of population change in the last intercensal period, 2011–2022. Building on the previous research of population loss and migration flows after the break-up of Yugoslavia, the overall population change in the region is being assessed. It is also shown that tempo distortion of fertility rates considerably affects the realistic level of fertility and that approximate completed fertility rates fell less dramatically. Since the migration data are less reliable, the analysis of intercensal change was applied to assess the migration losses across the ex-Yugoslav space. To assess the extent of deep ageing, the intercensal projection of fertile contingent was introduced. The stage of deep ageing is the most pronounced in Croatia and Serbia, especially at the younger fertile group, while the overall loss of fertile population is profound and will certainly affect the further future decrease in population. Similarly difficult demographic situation is in other post-Yugoslav countries, where only Slovenia has not yet slid into the stage of deep ageing.U članku se razrađuje koncept dubokog starenja gde su ukupni efekti starenja druge demografske tranzicije, usled niskog fertiliteta ispod proste reprodukcije stanovništva, pojačani povećanom emigracijom fertilnog kontingenta, što znači dodatni gubitak aktivnog stanovništva. Proces dubokog starenja stoga ubrzava opadanje ukupne populacije. S druge strane gubitak fertilnog kontingenta može postići prividan porast ukupne stope fertiliteta pri čemu tempo efekt fertiliteta igra odlučujuću ulogu. Članak se najpre bavi pitanjem demografskih promena u evropskim makroregionima nakon pada Gvozdene zavese (1990–2020). Najznačajnija je preorientacija tradicionalne neto emigracije od južno- i istočno- evropskog ka jugoistočno-evropskom bazenu. Zatim se analiziraju demografske promene na teritoriji bivše Jugoslavije kako bi se procenile razmere ovih promena u poslednjem međupopisnom periodu (2011–2022). Nadovezujući se na nalaze ranijih istraživanja gde se ističe gubitak stanovništva i negativan razvoj migracija, ovde se pristupa dubljoj strukturi problema populacionih gubitaka u većini zemalja nastalih posle raspada Jugoslavije. S druge strane, treba napomenuti da postoje značajne fluktuacije i varijacije u inače niskom fertilitetu u regionu Zapadnog Balkana. Istovremeno, nizak nivo ukupne stope fertiliteta ne mora da znači i smanjenje ukupnog rodnog ponašanja, što postaje vidljivo kroz primenu aproksimativne stope završnog fertiliteta. Migraciona komponenta promene stanovništva zbog delimično nepostojećih, nesigurnih ili oskudnih podataka procenjena je indirektno kroz međupopisno poređenje. Primenjene su međupopisne projekcije fertilnog kontingenta da bi se procenio stepen starenja i odredio položaj u procesu dubokog starenja stanovništva. Rezultati pokazuju da su Hrvatska i Srbija najizraženije u procesu dubokog starenja, posebno u mlađim skupinama fertilnog kontingenta, dok je većina ostalih zemalja, osim Slovenije, pogođena gubitkom celokupnog fertilnog kontingenta koji će bez sumnje uticati na dalji demografski gubitak ovih prostora u budućnosti
Zaposlenost, rodna ravnopravnost i porodične politike: postjugoslovenske države i Evropska unija
Full text linkThe central question driving this study is whether and how the employment situation of women aged 20 to 49 in post-Yugoslav countries can be improved. Embracing feminist principles, the initial premise posits that gender equality is not only reflected in lower rates of women’s employment, but also in a higher share of part-time employment. Parenthood emerges as a pivotal factor influencing both the quantity and quality of women’s employment during this life stage. The analysis encompasses gender disparities, as well as variations in employment between the women with at least one child under the age of six and those without children. Data from the Labor Force Survey, from the database of the Statistical Office of the European Union are used.
In the socialist era of the former Yugoslavia, women’s full-time employment was relatively high, and the societal norm of both parents being employed was widely embraced. However, the transition to the capitalist system in the late 20th century posed challenges for all former socialist countries, including labor market instability and a decline in women’s employment. Our examination of current employment involves a comparative approach. Slovenia stands out for its remarkably high employment rates among the younger middle-aged women with children under six (exceeding 80%). Notably, Slovenia is the only European Union member state to maintain high employment rates, while simultaneously keeping part-time employment levels relatively low. Nonetheless, gender disparity in employment among women and men without children persists,
as observed
in Croatia and Serbia. Additionally, the gender gap in part-time employment between these women and men, recorded in Slovenia, is one of the largest.
In Serbia, the employment rate of women aged 20-49 is below the EU average, with less than two-thirds employed in 2021, irrespective of parental status. Although part-time employment is not prevalent in post-Yugoslav countries, Slovenia exhibits a higher rate compared to Croatia and Serbia. While some of the most developed European countries have shown that this model can increase the employment rates of mothers with young children, feminist literature argues against it due to its adverse effects on women’s socio-economic status. A potential approach to mitigating the gender gap in employment involves facilitating more flexible working arrangements, ensuring equal access and utilization, particularly where job’s nature permits. Additionally, enhancing employment opportunities for younger middle-aged women without children is imperative.Predmet analize jeste zaposlenost ženskog stanovništva starosti 20-49 godina, uključujući roditeljstvo kao važnu determinantu nivoa i kvaliteta zaposlenosti žena u ovom životnom dobu.
Cilj je da se sagleda u kom smeru treba poboljšavati politike u vezi sa zaposlenošću mlađe sredovečnih žena
u post-jugoslovenskim državama. U fokusu su razlike između žena i muškaraca koji nisu roditelji i razlike između žena koje imaju bar jedno dete mlađe od šest godina i žena bez dece. Komparativna analiza pokazala je da je j
edna od najvećih stopa zaposlenosti žena koje imaju decu mlađu od šest godina na nivou Evropske unije u Sloveniji (iznad 80%), a da je model nepunog radnog vremena manje zastupljen nego u većini skandinavskih i zapadno evropskih država. Zaposlenost mlađe sredovečnih žena u Srbiji je ispod proseka za Evropsku uniju, a u 2021. bilo je zaposleno manje od dve trećine žena starosti 20-49 godina, kako onih koje nisu imale decu, tako i onih koje su imale bar jedno dete uzrasta do šest godina. Potrebne su politike koje impliciraju
rodnu ravnopravnost i u pogledu nivoa i u pogledu kvaliteta zaposlenosti, što znači i rodnu ravnotežu u usklađivanju rada i roditeljstva, uključivanje fleksibilnih radnih aranžmana, ali i
poboljšanje zaposlenosti žena koje nemaju decu
Rodne razlike u obrascima kohortnog fertiliteta u Srbiji: uloga obrazovnog gradijenta
No full textThis paper represents the first contribution to the research of gender differences in the cohort fertility patterns in Serbia. We used the specially processed results of the 2022 Census that include one-year cohorts of women and men born in the 1940-1982 and 1940-1977 periods, respectively. Using parity progression rates, we examined the changes and gender patterns of completed cohort fertility from the perspective of educational differentials given the role of educational expansion in fertility changes in recent decades. Decomposition analysis showed that a marked increase in childlessness and the declining progression to second birth across cohorts born after 1960 is the key reason of the decline in completed fertility of both sexes. The development of the relationship between the education and fertility led to the changes in the educational differentials in fertility of both sexes, but also to a very pronounced gender gap in the patterns of these differentials. Convergence in completed fertility across different educational groups in the older cohorts of men turned to a divergence between the low-educated and the highly educated in the younger generations, resulting in a positive educational gradient in recent completed fertility of men. Negative educational gradient in completed fertility was observed across all cohorts of women, with the gap between the low- and highly educated doubled among the younger compared to the older cohorts. The development of educational differentials in childlessness across cohorts led to a gender convergence among the highly educated and divergence among the low-educated in Serbia, contrary to the process that took place in more gender egalitarian societies. The lack of convergence in the progression to second and third birth across different educational groups of both sexes, which is particularly pronounced among women, suggests that the more educated a person is, the more difficult it is for them to expand their family due to the lack of both institutional support for parenthood and gender equity within the family. The identified patterns of completed cohort fertility in Serbia confirm theoretical assumptions and findings from other countries that in the societies with more pronounced gender inequality and family support policies that are not sufficiently gender and parentally sensitive, higher opportunity costs of parenthood lead to lower fertility, and vice versa.Ovaj rad predstavlja prvi doprinos istraživanju rodnih razlika u obrascima kohortnog fertiliteta u Srbiji. Koristili smo posebno obrađene rezultate Popisa 2022. koji obuhvataju jednogodišnje kohorte žena rođenih 1940-1982. i muškaraca rođenih 1940-1977. godine. Koristeći stope progresije ka redovima rađanja (paritetima), ispitali smo promene i rodne obrasce završenog kohortnog fertiliteta iz perspektive obrazovnih razlika s obzirom na ulogu obrazovne ekspanzije u promenama fertiliteta poslednjih decenija. Analiza metodom dekompozicije pokazala je da je značajan porast bezdetnosti i pad progresije ka drugom detetu među kohortama rođenim posle 1960. godine ključni razlog pada završenog fertiliteta oba pola. Razvoj odnosa obrazovanja i fertiliteta doveo je do promena u obrazovnim diferencijalima fertiliteta kod oba pola, ali i do veoma izraženog rodnog jaza u obrascima ovih razlika. Konvergencija u završenom fertilitetu među različitim obrazovnim grupama u starijim kohortama muškaraca pretvorila se u divergenciju između niskoobrazovanih i više obrazovanih u mlađim generacijama, što je rezultiralo pozitivnim obrazovnim gradijentom u skorijem završenom fertilitetu muškaraca. Negativan obrazovni gradijent u završenom fertilitetu zabeležen je u svim kohortama žena, pri čemu se jaz između nisko i visokoobrazovanih udvostručio među mlađim u poređenju sa starijim kohortama. Razvoj obrazovnih razlika u bezdetnosti među kohortama doveo je do rodne konvergencije među visokoobrazovanim i divergencije među niskoobrazovanim u Srbiji, za razliku od procesa koji se odvijao u rodno egalitarnijim društvima. Nedostatak konvergencije u tranziciji ka drugom i trećem detetu među različitim obrazovnim grupama oba pola, što je posebno izraženo kod žena, sugeriše da što je osoba obrazovanija, to joj je teže da proširuje porodicu zbog nedostatka institucionalne podrške roditeljstvu i rodne jednakosti unutar porodice. Identifikovani obrasci završenog kohortnog fertiliteta u Srbiji potvrđuju teorijske pretpostavke i nalaze iz drugih država da u društvima sa izraženijom rodnom nejednakošću i politikama podrške porodici koje nisu dovoljno rodno i roditeljski senzitivne veći oportuni troškovi roditeljstva dovode do nižeg fertiliteta i obrnuto.
Zbornik radova: Katastrofa, izgradnja i rekonstrukcija: Eseji o etičkim i društvenim perspektivama
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Uticaj migratornih kretanja na tržište rada u zemljama Zapadnog Balkana
No full textMigration is one of the most current topics in the world today. The most common causes include wars, or climate changes, while there are also migrations caused by economic reasons, and their goal is pursuit of better material existence, achieving a higher standard of living, better conditions of employment, education, and therefore better conditions of life. The subjects of this analysis are economic migration and contemporary migration trends, i.e. the immigration and emigration of foreigners to and from the countries of the Western Balkans (WB). Macroeconomic indicators point to the stabilization of labour markets in the second decade of the 21st century, although economies have been stagnating. The question arises whether this is a consequence of a higher rate of economic growth or is it induced by depopulation and reduction of the working population? The aim of the paper is to point out the necessity of managing migration flows in these countries and the need to guide migrants in the labour market. The paper consists of two parts. The first part provides an overview of previous research on migration, the concept and types of migration. The second part of the paper consists of an empirical analysis of migration in the countries of the Western Balkans and Serbia and their impact on the labour market and economic development.Migracije su danas jedna od najaktuelnijih tema u svetu. Najčešći razlozi nastanka su ratovi, zatim, to mogu biti klimatske promene, a postoje i migracije nastale iz ekonomskih razloga, i njihov cilj je potraga za boljom materijalnom egzistencijom, ostvarivanje višeg životnog standarda, bolji uslovi zapošljavanja, obrazovanja, a samim tim i bolji uslovi života. Predmet ove analize su ekonomske migracije i savremena migraciona kretanja, tj. useljavanje i iseljavanje stranaca u zemlje Zapadnog Balkana (ZB). Makroekonomski pokazatelji ukazuju na stabilizaciju na tržištu rada u drugoj deceniji XXI veka, mada ekonomije stagniraju. Postavlja se pitanje da li je to posledica veće stope privrednog rasta ili su indukovani depopulacijom i redukcijom radno aktivnog stanovništva? Cilj rada je da se ukaže na neophodnost upravljanja migracionim tokovima u ovim zemljama i potrebe za usmeravanjem migranata na tržištu rada. Rad se sastoji iz dva dela. U prvom delu se daje pregled dosadašnjih istraživanja o migracijama, pojmu i vrstama migracija. Drugi deo rada se sastoji iz empirijske analize migracija u zemljama Zapadnog Balkana i Srbije i njihovom uticaju na tržište rada i privredni razvoj
Trendovi u tranziciji na tržište rada mladih u Srbiji
Full text linkIn recent decades, the transformation from industrial to post-industrial societies has inevitably influenced the patterns of transition for young individuals entering the labor market. These transition patterns reflect continuity and changes in the social division of labor, thus representing a crucial process in shaping the social stratification of modern societies. The focus of this study is the analysis of changes in the average age of entry into the labor market in Serbia from the second half of the twentieth century to the present. The aim is to shed light on three questions: 1) how the average age of entry into the workforce has changed during this period, 2) what differences in the transition patterns have been observed between men and women, and 3) what differences in transition patterns have been observed between urban and rural populations. The emphasis is on recognizing basic trends in the transition to the labor market for the cohorts born from 1930 to 1995.
Considering the rapid changes that Serbian society has undergone during this period, we will attempt to determine their impact on the basic patterns of integration into the labor market. Ideally, we would like to be able to map all the aspects of the professional transition of specific cohorts through the changing institutional structure. However, since this is not feasible, this paper specifically focuses on the following aspects of the transition process: (a) timing of events, i.e., the average age of entry into the labor market, and (b) variability in age, i.e., the level at which transitions occur at specific ages.
The analysis is based on the data from the European Social Survey in 2018, with its sample of 1265 respondents in Serbia. Survival analysis is applied to illustrate changes over time in the studied life event, along with Kaplan-Meier survival function estimates for comparisons across gender/locality. When considering the aspects of timing of events and variability in age, the results indicate a delay in professional transitions during the study period, but not necessarily their destandardization. Additionally, life trajectories of men and women had become increasingly similar by the collapse of socialism and the rise of social inequalities, when this trend was halted. On the other hand, transition patterns between individuals from rural and urban areas are becoming more similar. Taking into account the intense societal changes during the analyzed period, the transformations observed in professional transitions may be a consequence of these specific social changes.Poslednjih decenija transformacija iz industrijskih u postindustrijska društva neminovno je uticala i na obrasce tranzicije mladih na tržište rada. Obrasci te tranzicije odražavaju kontinuitet i promene u društvenoj podeli rada, a samim tim predstavljaju važan proces za oblikovanje društvene stratifikacije modernih društava. Predmet ovog rada je analiza promena u prosečnom dobu ulaska na tržište rada u Srbiji od druge polovine dvadesetog veka do danas, s ciljem da se osvetle odgovori na tri pitanja: 1) kako se menjalo prosečno doba ulaska u svet rada u ovom periodu, 2) kakve su bile razlike između muškaraca i žena u obrascima tranzicije, kao i 3) kakve su bile razlike između urbanog i ruralnog stanovništva u obrascima tranzicije. Akcenat je na prepoznavanju osnovnih trendova tranzicije na tržište rada mladih za kohorte rođene od 1930. do 1995. godine. Analiza se zasniva na podacima Evropskog društvenog istraživanja iz 2018. na uzorku za Srbiju od 1.265 ispitanika/ca. Primenjena je statistička analiza preživljavanja radi prikazivanja promena u vremenu proučavanog životnog događaja kao i Kaplan-Majerove ocene funkcije preživljavanja radi njihovog poređenja kroz rod/lokalitet. Rezultati ukazuju da možemo govoriti o odlaganju profesionalnih tranzicija tokom proučavanog perioda, ali ne nužno i o njihovoj destandardizaciji. Takođe, životni tokovi muškaraca i žena su postajali sve sličniji sve do perioda sloma socijalizma i porasta društvenih nejednakosti kada je taj trend zaustavljen, a sa druge strane obrasci profesionalnih tranzicija između osoba iz ruralnih i gradskih područja jesu sve sličniji
Institucije i dobro upravljanje kao faktor migratornih kretanja u Evropi
Full text linkThe research objective is to determine the relative importance of two groups of factors that influence the net migration rate: economic, such as the gross average monthly wages, and non-economic, which include the efficiency of institutional arrangements based primarily on corruption control and the rule of law indicators. According to the neoclassical theory of migration, economic factors have a dominant influence on the migration decision-making process. On the other hand, the institutional theory of migration advocates the position that institutional and managerial factors prevail over economic ones. The assumption on which the research is based is that migration is caused to a greater extent by the quality of institutions and good governance indicators, than by the opportunities to achieve a better material position represented by a higher average salary. On a sample of 48 European countries, for the period 1996 - 2021, it was investigated which group of factors dominantly determines the net migration rate. The sample of 48 countries is divided into two sub-samples so that one of them contains countries with a higher level of income and the strong anti-corruption and rule of law standards (28 European Union countries) and the remaining 20 non-European Union members with lower gross average monthly wages, weak institutions, as well as less favorable indicators of the rule of law and control of corruption. Using the techniques of econometric analysis of panel data, predictors of the net migration rate in European countries were identified. The analysis confirmed that the quality of the institutional framework is extremely important and that the rule of law and corruption control had a stronger impact on the net migration in European countries than the gross wages. This is supported by the evaluated parameters to the corresponding explanatory variables in the models. The research also confirmed that institutional factors had a stronger impact on the net migration rate in less developed European countries that are not members of the European Union than in the 28 European Union countries. Corruption is an important problem in many countries and citizens are very sensitive to this aspect of institutional quality. The findings of this research show that less developed European countries must pay special attention to building institutions, the rule of law and control of corruption if they want to stop negative trends in net migration, and that these factors prevail over the economic factors that were dominant in the 20th century.Cilj istraživanja je da se utvrdi relativan značaj dve grupe faktora koje determinišu stopu neto migracija: ekonomskih, kao što je visina bruto prosečne mesečne zarade i neekonomskih, koji obuhvataju kvalitet institucionalnog uređenja oslonjen prevashodno na indikatore kontrole korupcije i vladavine prava. Prema neoklasičnoj teoriji migracija ekonomski faktori imaju dominantan uticaj na donošenje odluke o migracijama. Institucionalna teorija migracija zagovara stav da institucionalni i upravljački faktori imaju prevagu nad ekonomskim. Na uzorku od 48 evropskih zemalja, za period 1996 – 2021. godine primenom tehnika ekonometrijske analize panel podataka identifikovani su prediktori stope neto migracija u evropskim zemljama. Analiza je potvrdila da je kvalitet institucionalnog okvira od izuzetne važnosti i da su vladavina prava i kontrola korupcije imali snažniji uticaj na neto migracije u zemljama Evrope od bruto prosečnih mesečnih zarada. Istraživanjem je takođe potvrđeno i to da su institucionalni faktori imali snažniji uticaj na neto migracije u manje razvijenim evropskim zemljama koje nisu članice Evropske unije nego u 28 zemalja članica. Manje razvijene evropske zemlje moraju posebnu pažnju posvetiti izgradnji institucija, vladavini prava i kontroli korupcije ukoliko žele da zaustave negativne trendove u neto migracijama, te da ovi faktori imaju prevagu u odnosu na ekonomske koji su bili dominantni u XX veku.  
Kakva je povezanost: obrazovna ekspanzija i izvanbračni fertilitet u Hrvatskoj
No full textThis paper studies the macro-level relationship between education and non-marital fertility in Croatia. Using vital statistics on first births from 1984 to 2021, we explored non-marital fertility trends by mothers’ education and assessed the influence of women’s educational expansion. We observed a significant increase in the proportion of non-marital births, from under 10% in the mid-1980s to over 30% by 2021. Decomposition analysis showed that behavioural changes, particularly among medium-educated women, significantly influenced the increase in non-marital fertility. This group increasingly opted for childbearing outside of marriage. High-educated women also contributed to the trend, with the behavioural changes more modest in comparison to those of medium-educated women, but amplified by an increase in their group size. Direct standardization showed that higher educational attainment among first-time mothers moderated the proportion of non-marital births, suggesting that the proportion of non-marital births could have been even higher had the educational composition remained constant at 1984 levels. The study confirmed a persistent negative educational gradient, where lower educational attainment was associated with a higher likelihood of non-marital childbearing. The results have important implications for policymakers, as discussed in the paper.Istraživanja pokazuju da niže obrazovani češće imaju djecu izvan braka. Međutim, usporedno s porastom udjela djece rođene izvan braka, odvijala se obrazovna ekspanzija. Postojeća literatura sugerira da, iako je među nisko obrazovanima udio djece rođene izvan braka i dalje najveći, njihov sve manji udio u populaciji ograničava doprinos koji imaju zabilježenom rastu izvanbračnog fertiliteta. Na tom temelju, ovaj rad na primjeru Hrvatske istražuje izvanbračni fertilitet među ženama koje su rodile svoje prvo dijete, s ciljem da se odgovori na sljedeća istraživačka pitanja: Koliko se porasta u izvanbračnom fertilitetu može pripisati promjenama u obrazovnoj strukturi majki u usporedbi s promjenama u fertilitetnom ponašanju pojedinih obrazovnih skupina? Kakav bi bio trend u izvanbračnom fertilitetu da je obrazovna struktura majki ostala nepromijenjena? Koristeći se podacima iz vitalne statistike od sredine 1980-ih nadalje, ovaj rad istražuje udio prve djece rođene izvan braka među nisko, srednje i visoko obrazovanim ženama. Primjenom dekompozicijske analize, raščlanili smo na komponente ukupne promjene u izvanbračnom fertilitetu tijekom šest uzastopnih razdoblja: 1984. – 90., 1991. – 95., 1996. – 99., 2000. – 07., 2008. – 13. i 2014. – 21. Metodom direktne standardizacije istražili smo ulogu koju su promjene u obrazovnoj strukturi majki odigrale vezano uz zabilježene trendove u izvanbračnom fertilitetu. Nalazi otkrivaju znatan porast u udjelu prve djece rođene izvan braka, s ispod 10 % sredinom 1980-ih na više od 30% do 2021. U skladu s trendovima u drugim zemljama, rezultati pokazuju da je izvanbračni fertilitet porastao u svim obrazovnim skupinama. Dekompozicijska analiza pokazala je da su recentnom porastu izvanbračnog fertiliteta u najvećoj mjeri doprinijele promjene u ponašanju među srednje obrazovanima: kod te se skupina žena rađanje izvan braka intenziviralo. Trendu su doprinijele i visoko obrazovane žene; iako su bihevioralni učinci bili manje izraženi u usporedbi sa srednje obrazovanim ženama, njihov doprinos pojačali su strukturni učinci, odnosno rastuća veličina te obrazovne skupine. Direktna standardizacija pokazala je da je obrazovna ekspanzija usporila rast izvanbračnog fertiliteta: da je obrazovna struktura majki ostala nepromijenjena, naši rezultati sugeriraju da bi udio djece rođene izvan braka bio veći. Rezultati potvrđuju postojano negativan obrazovni gradijent u izvanbračnom fertilitetu u Hrvatskoj. Naši nalazi imaju važne implikacije za kreatore politike, o čemu se u radu raspravlja, i pomažu unaprijediti razumijevanje odnosa između obrazovanja i izvanbračnog fertiliteta spoznajama specifičnim za hrvatski kontekst
Odrast između normativizma i stvarnosti
No full textThis article addresses the increasing debates over the limitations of high-growth models that have contributed to environmental degradation and polycrises. Based on a comprehensive literature review, we look into the basic characteristics and differences between the alternative degrowth and similar new development models; examine the paradigm through the lens of its critics; and look into its viability. The analysis highlights that while degrowth presents a theoretically compelling alternative to traditional growth models, it faces significant practical challenges in implementation, particularly due to its reliance on deep systemic changes and shifts in public values. In the empirical section, we test the hypothesis that countries with better sustainable development progress are more successful than those prioritizing economic outcomes. To do this, we show graphically and analyze the correlation between the average GDP growth and changes in the sustainable development measure using Pearson’s correlation coefficient. We rank countries based on their sustainable development and economic performance, averaging these rankings to identify potential degrowth leaders over the past 20 years. Our findings indicate that, while theoretically appealing, the degrowth model faces significant challenges in practice, with no statistical evidence supporting a negative correlation between degrowth and sustainable development progress.Ovaj rad se bavi sve učestalijim raspravama o ograničenjima modela razvoja zasnovanog na visokom rastu i potrošnji, koji su doprineli degradaciji životne sredine i višestrukim krizama. Jedna od alternativa je model odrasta, koji prioritet daje društvenom blagostanju i održivom razvoju umesto rastu baziranom na BDP-u. U radu istražujemo održivost modela odrasta kao alternative. Na osnovu sveobuhvatne analize literature obrađujemo tri istraživačka pitanja: koje su osnovne karakteristike i razlike između odrasta i sličnih novih modela razvoja; da li koncept odrasta može rešiti trenutne razvojne izazove globalno i za različite grupe zemalja iz perspektive kritičara; i da li je model odrasta održiv unutar postojećih globalnih i lokalnih sistema.
Analiza ističe da iako odrast predstavlja teoretski privlačnu alternativu tradicionalnim modelima rasta, suočava se sa značajnim praktičnim izazovima u implementaciji, posebno zbog svoje zavisnosti od dubokih sistemskih promena i promena u javnim vrednostima. Kritičari tvrde da je odrast u velikoj meri nespojiv sa postojećim globalnim ekonomskim sistemom, a njegova primena, posebno u zemljama u razvoju, može pogoršati nejednakosti i otežati osnovni ekonomski razvoj. U empirijskom delu testiramo hipotezu da su zemlje sa jačim neekonomskim razvojnim performansama, poput napretka održivog razvoja prema Indeksu ciljeva održivog razvoja (SDG), uspešnije od onih koje prioritet daju ekonomskim ishodima.
Da bismo to postigli, grafički prikazujemo i analiziramo korelaciju između prosečnog rasta BDP-a i promena u meri održivog razvoja, koristeći Pirsonov koeficijent korelacije. Rangiramo zemlje na osnovu njihovog održivog razvoja i ekonomskih performansi, prosečno izračunavajući te rangove kako bismo identifikovali potencijalne lidere odrasta u poslednjih 20 godina. Naši nalazi ukazuju da, iako je teoretski privlačan, model odrasta se suočava sa značajnim izazovima u praksi, bez statističkih dokaza koji bi podržali negativnu korelaciju između odrasta i napretka u održivom razvoju. Zemlje koje se mogu identifikovati kao one koje prate model odrasta često su one koje ostvaruju loše ekonomske performanse usled sukoba i nestabilnosti, a ne održivog uspeha, što naglašava složenosti i ograničenja implementacije odrasta na širem nivou