9 research outputs found
Dieudonné Ouédraogo et Victor Piché (sous la direction de) avec la collaboration de Stéphanie Dos Santos, 2007. Dynamique migratoire, insertion urbaine et environnement au Burkina Faso. Au-delà de la houe. L’Harmattan Burkina Faso/Presses universitaires de Ouagadougou/Paris, L’Harmattan, 328 p.
No full textRelation entre l’environnement familial et le comportement sexuel des adolescents au Burkina Faso
No full textLa thèse porte sur la relation entre l’environnement familial et le comportement sexuel des adolescents vivant dans un contexte de socialisation. L’environnement familial est mesuré par le type de famille de résidence, le type d’union du chef de ménage, la survie des parents, la cohabitation avec les grands-parents et le nombre de personnes de moins de 20 ans par adulte dans le ménage. Le comportement sexuel est opérationnalisé par l’entrée en sexualité prémaritale, l’utilisation du condom au premier rapport sexuel, le nombre de partenaires sexuels, le recours au partenaire sexuel occasionnel et l’utilisation systématique du condom au cours des douze derniers mois. Les données proviennent d’enquêtes transversales. Elles ont servi à établir des associations entre les indicateurs des deux concepts. Les résultats sont présentés dans trois articles (Chapitres III à V).
Une analyse descriptive de l’environnement familial au Burkina Faso montre qu’une majorité des enfants de 0 à 14 ans (78,4% en 1993 et 77,6% en 2003) et des adolescents de 12 à 19 ans (61,1% en 2004) vit auprès des deux parents, en union monogame ou polygame. Cependant, certains enfants et adolescents résident avec les parents dans des ménages dirigés par d’autres personnes. Le décès des parents (7,7% en 1993 et 7,3% en 2003 pour les enfants; 16,5% en 2004 pour les adolescents), la pratique du confiage (10,4% en 1993 et 8,9% en 2003 pour les enfants; 26,9% en 2004 pour les adolescents) et la monoparentalité (11,2% en 1993 et 13,6% en 2003 pour les enfants; 12% en 2004 pour les adolescents) affectent amplement l’environnement familial. C’est dans l’adolescence que les individus sont plus nombreux à être privés de la présence des deux parents.
Il existe une association statistique significative entre l’environnement familial et le comportement sexuel des adolescents du Burkina Faso. Cette relation varie en fonction de l’indicateur de comportement à l’étude et du sexe des adolescents ciblés. Par exemple, l’absence des deux parents dans le ménage n’est pas systématiquement associée au comportement sexuel à risque.
S’agissant des indicateurs de comportement sexuel, l’âge au premier rapport sexuel est associé significativement aux autres indicateurs des garçons et des filles. Une entrée précoce en sexualité (avant 14 ans) est associée à une plus grande probabilité d’adoption de comportement sexuel à risque. Toutefois, elle est moins susceptible d’être associée au recours à plusieurs partenaires sexuels.
Les résultats ont conduit à des recommandations pour les politiques et les programmes de santé sexuelle et reproductive. Au Burkina Faso, la priorité des futures actions devrait viser la sensibilisation des parents, des tuteurs et des adultes du ménage pour l’éducation, le soutien et le suivi de tous les adolescents, sans exception de sexe et de statut dans la sexualité. Les institutions extrafamiliales, comme l’école, devraient être mises à contribution pour appuyer l’effort des membres de la famille. Une stratégie combinée de promotion du report de l’entrée en sexualité et de l’éducation sexuelle pourrait être un moyen plus sûr et plus sécuritaire pour protéger la santé dans l’adolescence.The objective of this thesis is to examine the relation between family environment and sexual behavior of adolescents within the context of socialization. The family environment is measured by type of family, union status of the household head, parents’ survival, cohabitation with grandparents and the ratio of people aged less than 20 years to adults in the household. Sexual behavior is captured by the existence and timing of premarital first sexual intercourse, use of condom at first sexual intercourse, number of sexual partners, having a casual sexual partner and systematic use of condom during the last twelve months. Data come from cross-sectional surveys. The findings are presented in three articles (Chapters III to V).
A descriptive analysis of family environment in Burkina Faso shows that the large majority of children aged from 0 to 14 years (78.4% in 1993 and 77.6% in 2003) and of adolescents aged from 12 to 19 years (61.1% in 2004) live with both parents who are in either monogamous or polygamous unions. However, some of these children and adolescents also live with parents in households headed by other people. The death of parents (7.7% in 1993 and 7.3% in 2003 for children; 16.5% in 2004 for adolescents), child fostering (10.4% in 1993 and 8.9% in 2003 for children; 26.9% in 2004 for adolescents) and single parenthood (11.2% in 1993 and 13.6% in 2003 for children; 12% in 2004 for adolescents) can affect the nature and quality of the family environment, and the risk for being deprived of the presence of both parents increases during adolescence.
There exists a significant statistical association between variables capturing aspects of the family environment and adolescents’ sexual behavior in Burkina Faso. This relation varies according to the specific sexual behavior under study as well as by the adolescents’ gender. For example, we find that the absence of both parents in the household is not systematically associated with more risky sexual behavior.
Age at first sexual intercourse is significantly associated with others indicators of sexual behavior of boys and of girls. An early first sexual intercourse (before 14 years) is associated with a greater likelihood of several subsequent more risky sexual behaviors. However, it is less likely to be associated with more sexual partners.
The findings lead to recommendations for sexual and reproductive health policies and programs. In Burkina Faso, the priority of future actions should aim at raising of parents’ and guardians’ awareness for the education, support and monitoring of all adolescents, notwithstanding their gender and sexual status. Extra-familial social institutions, such as school, should contribute to support parents’, guardians’ and family members’ effort. A combined strategy of postponing first sexual intercourse and improving sexual education could contribute to protecting sexual and reproductive health in adolescence
Relation entre l’environnement familial et le comportement sexuel des adolescents au Burkina Faso
No full textLa thèse porte sur la relation entre l’environnement familial et le comportement sexuel des adolescents vivant dans un contexte de socialisation. L’environnement familial est mesuré par le type de famille de résidence, le type d’union du chef de ménage, la survie des parents, la cohabitation avec les grands-parents et le nombre de personnes de moins de 20 ans par adulte dans le ménage. Le comportement sexuel est opérationnalisé par l’entrée en sexualité prémaritale, l’utilisation du condom au premier rapport sexuel, le nombre de partenaires sexuels, le recours au partenaire sexuel occasionnel et l’utilisation systématique du condom au cours des douze derniers mois. Les données proviennent d’enquêtes transversales. Elles ont servi à établir des associations entre les indicateurs des deux concepts. Les résultats sont présentés dans trois articles (Chapitres III à V).
Une analyse descriptive de l’environnement familial au Burkina Faso montre qu’une majorité des enfants de 0 à 14 ans (78,4% en 1993 et 77,6% en 2003) et des adolescents de 12 à 19 ans (61,1% en 2004) vit auprès des deux parents, en union monogame ou polygame. Cependant, certains enfants et adolescents résident avec les parents dans des ménages dirigés par d’autres personnes. Le décès des parents (7,7% en 1993 et 7,3% en 2003 pour les enfants; 16,5% en 2004 pour les adolescents), la pratique du confiage (10,4% en 1993 et 8,9% en 2003 pour les enfants; 26,9% en 2004 pour les adolescents) et la monoparentalité (11,2% en 1993 et 13,6% en 2003 pour les enfants; 12% en 2004 pour les adolescents) affectent amplement l’environnement familial. C’est dans l’adolescence que les individus sont plus nombreux à être privés de la présence des deux parents.
Il existe une association statistique significative entre l’environnement familial et le comportement sexuel des adolescents du Burkina Faso. Cette relation varie en fonction de l’indicateur de comportement à l’étude et du sexe des adolescents ciblés. Par exemple, l’absence des deux parents dans le ménage n’est pas systématiquement associée au comportement sexuel à risque.
S’agissant des indicateurs de comportement sexuel, l’âge au premier rapport sexuel est associé significativement aux autres indicateurs des garçons et des filles. Une entrée précoce en sexualité (avant 14 ans) est associée à une plus grande probabilité d’adoption de comportement sexuel à risque. Toutefois, elle est moins susceptible d’être associée au recours à plusieurs partenaires sexuels.
Les résultats ont conduit à des recommandations pour les politiques et les programmes de santé sexuelle et reproductive. Au Burkina Faso, la priorité des futures actions devrait viser la sensibilisation des parents, des tuteurs et des adultes du ménage pour l’éducation, le soutien et le suivi de tous les adolescents, sans exception de sexe et de statut dans la sexualité. Les institutions extrafamiliales, comme l’école, devraient être mises à contribution pour appuyer l’effort des membres de la famille. Une stratégie combinée de promotion du report de l’entrée en sexualité et de l’éducation sexuelle pourrait être un moyen plus sûr et plus sécuritaire pour protéger la santé dans l’adolescence.The objective of this thesis is to examine the relation between family environment and sexual behavior of adolescents within the context of socialization. The family environment is measured by type of family, union status of the household head, parents’ survival, cohabitation with grandparents and the ratio of people aged less than 20 years to adults in the household. Sexual behavior is captured by the existence and timing of premarital first sexual intercourse, use of condom at first sexual intercourse, number of sexual partners, having a casual sexual partner and systematic use of condom during the last twelve months. Data come from cross-sectional surveys. The findings are presented in three articles (Chapters III to V).
A descriptive analysis of family environment in Burkina Faso shows that the large majority of children aged from 0 to 14 years (78.4% in 1993 and 77.6% in 2003) and of adolescents aged from 12 to 19 years (61.1% in 2004) live with both parents who are in either monogamous or polygamous unions. However, some of these children and adolescents also live with parents in households headed by other people. The death of parents (7.7% in 1993 and 7.3% in 2003 for children; 16.5% in 2004 for adolescents), child fostering (10.4% in 1993 and 8.9% in 2003 for children; 26.9% in 2004 for adolescents) and single parenthood (11.2% in 1993 and 13.6% in 2003 for children; 12% in 2004 for adolescents) can affect the nature and quality of the family environment, and the risk for being deprived of the presence of both parents increases during adolescence.
There exists a significant statistical association between variables capturing aspects of the family environment and adolescents’ sexual behavior in Burkina Faso. This relation varies according to the specific sexual behavior under study as well as by the adolescents’ gender. For example, we find that the absence of both parents in the household is not systematically associated with more risky sexual behavior.
Age at first sexual intercourse is significantly associated with others indicators of sexual behavior of boys and of girls. An early first sexual intercourse (before 14 years) is associated with a greater likelihood of several subsequent more risky sexual behaviors. However, it is less likely to be associated with more sexual partners.
The findings lead to recommendations for sexual and reproductive health policies and programs. In Burkina Faso, the priority of future actions should aim at raising of parents’ and guardians’ awareness for the education, support and monitoring of all adolescents, notwithstanding their gender and sexual status. Extra-familial social institutions, such as school, should contribute to support parents’, guardians’ and family members’ effort. A combined strategy of postponing first sexual intercourse and improving sexual education could contribute to protecting sexual and reproductive health in adolescence
Association between Age at First Sexual Relation and Some Indicators of Sexual Behaviour among Adolescents
No full textThis study explores the relationship between age at first sexual
intercourse and four indicators of sexual behaviour among adolescents
aged 14 to 19 years in Burkina Faso, Malawi and Uganda. Analyses are
conducted using data from National Surveys of Adolescents, organized in
2004. Multivariate analyses are performed using dichotomous logistic
regression and ordered polychotomic logistic regression. Analyses show
that initiation of sexual activity before age 14 is more likely to be
associated with having a casual sex partner. It is less likely to be
associated with condom use at first sexual relation or with systematic
condom use in the past 12 months. These associations vary depending on
adolescents' country and gender. Delaying onset of sexuality could be a
surer and safer way to protect health during adolescence. However,
sexual and reproductive health programs that advocate abstinence only
are likely to have few positive effects on young people. To better
implement this strategy, sexual education for adolescents should be
integrated (Afr J Reprod Health 2012 (Special Edition); 16[2]:
173-188).L'étude explore la relation entre l'âge au premier rapport
sexuel et quatre indicateurs de comportement sexuel chez les
adolescents de 14 à 19 ans au Burkina Faso, au Mali et en Ouganda.
Les données proviennent des Enquêtes Nationales sur les
Adolescents menées en 2004. Des analyses multi variées ont
été faites à l'aide des régressions logistiques
dichotomiques et polychotomique ordonnées. Ces analyses
révèlent qu'une entrée en sexualité avant 14 ans
est plus susceptible d'être associée au recours à un
partenaire sexuel occasionnel ; elle est moins susceptible d'être
associée à l'utilisation du préservatif au premier
rapport sexuel ou à son utilisation systématique au cours des
douze derniers mois. Ces associations varient selon les pays et le sexe
des adolescents. Le report de l'entrée en sexualité pourrait
être un moyen plus sûr et plus sauf pour protéger la
santé dans l'adolescence. Pourtant, des programmes de santé
sexuelle et de reproduction produiront de meilleurs effets s'ils
allient la promotion de l'abstinence sexuelle et celle de
l'éducation sexuelle (Afr J Reprod Health 2012 (Special Edition);
16[2]: 173-188)
Environnement familial au Burkina Faso : typologie et cohabitation parents-enfants
No full textCette étude décrit l’environnement familial desenfants et des adolescents du Burkina Faso au moyen des donnéesdes Enquêtes démographiques et de santé (EDS) de1993 et de 2003 et de l’Enquête nationale sur lesadolescents de 2004 et elle explore la relation entre la cohabitationparentale et les caractéristiques du chef de ménage, duménage et des enfants ou des adolescents ainsi que lascolarisation de ces derniers. Les résultats montrent que lamajorité des enfants (78,4 % en 1993 et 77,6 % en2003) et des adolescents (61,1 % en 2004) vit auprès de sesdeux parents, en union monogame ou polygame. La proportion des enfantset des adolescents orphelins, qu’ils soient confiés oucohabitant avec un seul parent, est non négligeable. C’estdans l’adolescence que la cohabitation avec les deux parents estla moins répandue. La cohabitation avec les parents estassociée significativement aux caractéristiques du chefde ménage, du ménage, des enfants et des adolescentsainsi qu’à la scolarisation de ces deux groupes.This study describes the family environment of children and adolescents in Burkina Faso, using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of 1993 and 2003 and the national survey of adolescents in 2004 ; it explores the relationship between parental cohabitation and the characteristics of the household head, of the household and of the children or adolescents including their level of educational attainment. The results show that the majority of children (78.4 % in 1993 and 77.6 % in 2003) and of adolescents (61.1 % in 2004) are living with both their parents, who are in monogamous or polygamous unions. There is a significant proportion of orphan children, whether fostered or living with a single parent. Cohabitation with parents is least common during adolescence. Cohabitation with parents is significantly related to the characteristics of the household head, of the household and of the children and adolescents and to the educational attainment of these two groups
Association between Age at First Sexual Relation and Some Indicators of Sexual Behaviour among Adolescents
No full textThis study explores the relationship between age at first sexual
intercourse and four indicators of sexual behaviour among adolescents
aged 14 to 19 years in Burkina Faso, Malawi and Uganda. Analyses are
conducted using data from National Surveys of Adolescents, organized in
2004. Multivariate analyses are performed using dichotomous logistic
regression and ordered polychotomic logistic regression. Analyses show
that initiation of sexual activity before age 14 is more likely to be
associated with having a casual sex partner. It is less likely to be
associated with condom use at first sexual relation or with systematic
condom use in the past 12 months. These associations vary depending on
adolescents' country and gender. Delaying onset of sexuality could be a
surer and safer way to protect health during adolescence. However,
sexual and reproductive health programs that advocate abstinence only
are likely to have few positive effects on young people. To better
implement this strategy, sexual education for adolescents should be
integrated (Afr J Reprod Health 2012 (Special Edition); 16[2]:
173-188).L'étude explore la relation entre l'âge au premier rapport
sexuel et quatre indicateurs de comportement sexuel chez les
adolescents de 14 à 19 ans au Burkina Faso, au Mali et en Ouganda.
Les données proviennent des Enquêtes Nationales sur les
Adolescents menées en 2004. Des analyses multi variées ont
été faites à l'aide des régressions logistiques
dichotomiques et polychotomique ordonnées. Ces analyses
révèlent qu'une entrée en sexualité avant 14 ans
est plus susceptible d'être associée au recours à un
partenaire sexuel occasionnel ; elle est moins susceptible d'être
associée à l'utilisation du préservatif au premier
rapport sexuel ou à son utilisation systématique au cours des
douze derniers mois. Ces associations varient selon les pays et le sexe
des adolescents. Le report de l'entrée en sexualité pourrait
être un moyen plus sûr et plus sauf pour protéger la
santé dans l'adolescence. Pourtant, des programmes de santé
sexuelle et de reproduction produiront de meilleurs effets s'ils
allient la promotion de l'abstinence sexuelle et celle de
l'éducation sexuelle (Afr J Reprod Health 2012 (Special Edition);
16[2]: 173-188)
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
No full text© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
No full textBackground:
Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.
Methods:
We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.
Findings:
From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.
Interpretation:
Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress
Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
No full textBackground:
Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.
Methods:
The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.
Findings:
Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.
Interpretation:
This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing
