446 research outputs found
On the non-convergence of energy intensities: evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach
No full textThis paper evaluates convergence of energy intensities for a group of 97 countries in the period 1971-2003. Convergence is tested using a recent method proposed by Pesaran (2007) [M.H. Pesaran. A pair- wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence. Journal of Econometrics 138, 312-355.] based on the stochastic convergence criterion. Main advantages of this method are that results do not depend on a benchmark against which convergence is assessed, and that it is more robust. Applications of several unit-root tests as well as a stationarity test uniformly reject the global convergence hypothesis. Locally, for Middle-East, OECD and Europe sub-groups, non-convergence is less strongly rejected. The introduction of possible structural breaks in the analysis only marginally provides more support to the convergence hypothesis.Energy intensity, pair-wise test, unit-root test, stationarity test, structural break, convergence
Citizen forecasting suggests Macron will win a comfortable victory over Marine Le Pen
No full textWith the second round of the French presidential election just days away, what can election forecasts tell us about the likely result? Drawing on a citizen forecasting model, Andreas Murr, Yannick Dufresne, Justin Savoie, Bruno Jérôme and Michael S. Lewis-Beck write that Emmanuel Macron looks set to win a comfortable victory over Marine Le Pen
Les épisodes de la convergence européenne.
No full textPeriods for european convergence
Real convergence of european economies is disputed in recent studies which suggest an opposition between real and nominal convergence. This paper enlarges the perspective and considers real convergence over différents periods covering twelve decades. Results for 14 european countries are presented within a simple diagram which highlights the distinction between p- and CJ-convergence. Finally, national specific performances, as measured by residuals to the growth equation, are not found persistent.La convergence des économies européennes a semblé remise en cause par des études récentes sur la base d'une opposition entre convergence nominale et divergence réelle. L'étude proposée s'attache à dégager sur diverses sous-périodes ou « épisodes » couvrant 12 décennies les facteurs respectifs de ft et de a-convergence réelle de 14 pays européens. Les résultats sont resitués par rapport à une frontière de convergence sur laquelle la tendance endogène au rattrapage des pays riches compense exactement le renouvellement des écarts par des chocs asymétriques. L'examen des écarts de croissance conditionnelle par pays révèle enfin une persistence limitée de ces écarts.Hénin Pierre-Yves, Le Pen Yannick. Les épisodes de la convergence européenne. In: Revue économique, volume 46, n°3, 1995. pp. 667-677
L'ethos nel dibattito tra Marine Le Pen ed Emmanuel Macron
No full textL'oggetto di questa analisi è l'ethos, ovvero l'insieme di valori che l'enuniciatore dimostra di avere, creando un'immagine di sé, in relazione con il dibattito dell'entre-deux-tours del 2017. Lo scopo di questo studio è quello di individuare e confrontare le diverse strategie, espressioni ed elementi che possono cambiare l’ethos dei due candidati nel corso del dibattito fra Marine Le Pen ed Emmanuel Macron. Non si tratta, per limiti propri dell'analisi del discorso, di un elenco esaustivo di tutti questi elementi, potenzialmente infiniti, ma di un'esemplificazione che permette di comprendere i meccanismi del dibattito nell'ottica dell'analisi del discorso, e in particolare dell'analisi dell'ethos. Scambi ritenuti rilevanti vengono quindi analizzati con l'aiuto di studi precedenti, soprattutto tratti da riviste specializzate francesi. Le osservazioni qui contenute possono aiutare ad acquisire una maggiore comprensione del testo tramite un approccio e un punto di vista diverso da quello puramente linguistico
The Front National in France [electronic resource] : Continuity and Change Under Jean-Marie Le Pen and Marine Le Pen /
No full textIn light of the transformation of the Front National (FN) to a major player in French politics, this book examines how the unprecedented boost in positive opinions towards the FN as well as its increasing membership and electoral success have been possible. Using a supply and demand framework and a mixed methods approach, the author investigates the development of the FN and compares the “new” FN under Marine Le Pen with the “old” FN under Jean-Marie Le Pen across 4 dimensions: (1) the party’s ideology, (2) the leadership styles of the two leaders including the composition of the party elites and the leaders’/ parties’ relationship with the media, (3) the party members and (4) the party voters. It appeals to scholars interested in the study of radical right-wing movements and parties as well as to anybody interested in French politics. .Introduction -- The History of the Front National -- The Ideology of the FN Between Jean-Marie Le Pen and Marine Le Pen -- Leadership and Elites Under Jean-Marie Le Pen and Marine Le Pen -- FN Membership Under Jean-Marie Le Pen and Marine Le Pen -- FN Voters Under Jean-Marie Le Pen and Marine Le Pen -- Conclusion.In light of the transformation of the Front National (FN) to a major player in French politics, this book examines how the unprecedented boost in positive opinions towards the FN as well as its increasing membership and electoral success have been possible. Using a supply and demand framework and a mixed methods approach, the author investigates the development of the FN and compares the “new” FN under Marine Le Pen with the “old” FN under Jean-Marie Le Pen across 4 dimensions: (1) the party’s ideology, (2) the leadership styles of the two leaders including the composition of the party elites and the leaders’/ parties’ relationship with the media, (3) the party members and (4) the party voters. It appeals to scholars interested in the study of radical right-wing movements and parties as well as to anybody interested in French politics.
A review and evaluation of ballast settlement models using results from the Southampton Railway Testing Facility (SRTF)
No full textMany of the world’s railways run on ballasted track, which has for nearly 200 years provided a stable support for train operation. However, with trafficking the geometry of the track deteriorates, mainly as a result of the development of differential settlement of the track-bed (ballast and sub-base). When the geometry defects become too severe, maintenance is needed to realign the track to enable the continued safe running of trains. Maintenance is a major cost associated with ballasted railway track, which usually takes the form of tamping. However, tamping damages the ballast, resulting in a diminishing return period between maintenance interventions until eventually the track-bed requires full renewal. A major component of the differential settlement can be attributed to the ballast layer. However, differential settlement of lengths of track cannot easily be modelled or predicted either computationally or experimentally. Thus the total plastic (permanent) settlement is often used as a proxy for the potential for the development of differential settlement along a length of track in the field. Many empirical models have been developed to predict ballast settlement, usually as a function of the number of train axle passes and/or the cumulative load. However, these models may produce very different results, perhaps indicating that the input variables have not been adequately formulated. This paper describes some current empirical ballast settlement models, and evaluates them using experimental data generated using the Southampton Railway Testing Facility (SRTF). This apparatus represents a section of track consisting of a single sleeper bay 650 mm wide, confined by rigid sides that enforce plane strain conditions. The paper summarises the strengths and weaknesses of the existing models, and suggests variables that could be taken into account to improve them
Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets.
No full textA l’aide de données quotidiennes sur la période mars 2001 à juin 2005, nous estimons un modèle VAR‐BEKK et montrons l’existence de transmissions au niveau des rendements et des volatilités entre les marchés forward de l’électricité pour l’Allemagne, les Pays‐Bas et la Grande‐Bretagne. Nous appliquons la fonction VIRF de Hafner and Herwartz [2006, Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 719‐740] afin de mesurer l’impact d’un choc sur la volatilité conditionnelle. Nous observons qu’un choc a un impact positif important seulement si son amplitude est grande en regard du niveau de la volatilité à cet instant. Finalement, nous estimons la densité des fonctions VIRF pour différents horizons de prévisions. Ces distributions lissées sont asymétriques et montrent que des évènements extrêmes sont possibles même si leur probabilité est faible. Ces résultats ont des implications intéressantes pour les participants au marché dont la politique de gestion des risques est basée sur les prix des options, eux‐mêmes dépendant du niveau de volatilité.Using daily data from March 2001 to June 2005, we estimate a VAR-BEKK model and find evidence of return and volatility spillovers between the German, the Dutch and the British forward electricity markets. We apply Hafner and Herwartz [2006, Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 719–740] Volatility Impulse Response Function (VIRF) to quantify the impact of shock on expected conditional volatility. We observe that a shock has a high positive impact only if its size is large compared to the current level of volatility. The impact of shocks are usually not persistent, which may be a consequence of the non-storability of power. Finally, we estimate the density of the VIRF at different forecast horizons. These fitted distributions are asymmetric and show that large increases in expected conditional volatilities are possible even if their probability is low. These results have interesting implications for market participants whose risk management policy depends on option prices which themselves depend on the characteristics of volatility.volatility spillovers; electricity forward markets; multivariate GARCH; volatility impulse response function; transmission de volatilité; marché forward de l’électricité; GARCH multivarié; Fonction impulsion réponse de volatilité;
Impact d'un choc sur les corrélations de trois indices boursiers
No full textNotre objectif est de mesurer l’impact de chocs sur les corrélations conditionnelles de trois indices boursiers majeurs : le S&P 500, le ftse 100 et le Nikkei 225. Nous estimons une version étendue du modèle à corrélations conditionnelles dynamiques avec effet d’asymétrie (ga-dcc) de Cappiello, Engle et Sheppard [2006] et procédons à une analyse impulsion-réponse en suivant l’approche de Koop, Pesaran et Potter [1996]. Nous étudions I’impact du choc en date du 14 août 2007 au moment du déclenchement de la crise de subprimes et de celui de la semaine du 16 septembre 2008, après la faillite de la banque Lehman Brothers. Nos estimations montrent que ces deux chocs ont eu des impacts nettement différents sur les trois corrélations
Convergence among five industrial countries (1870–1994): Results from a time varying cointegration approach
No full textIn this paper, we check the hypothesis of a time varying cointegration relation between four industrial countries’ per capita GDPs and US per capita GDP on the period from 1870 to 1994. Park and Hahn (1999) give the methodology. Results confirm the hypothesis of time evolving cointegration in all cases. Tests on the parameters of these cointegration relations show that, from the 1980’s onwards, we can accept the hypothesis of stochastic convergence between France, Germany and Japan, on one hand, and the United States on the other. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2005Cointegration, convergence, O40, C22,
A pair-wise approach to output convergence between European regions
No full textWe apply the Pesaran (2007) pair-wise approach of convergence to the per capita outputs of 195 European regions for the period 1980–2006. Pesaran's approach is based on the computation of the percentage ratio of output gaps which fulfil a given convergence criterion. A high ratio will be interpreted in favour of convergence. In a first step, we define stochastic convergence between two regions as level stationarity of their output gap. Deviations from its equilibrium value will only have a temporary effect. Results from several usual unit root or stationarity tests show us that the percentage ratio of level stationary output gaps is low, which stands against this definition of convergence. However, this convergence criterion excludes the possibility of changes in output gap equilibrium value or catching up between regions. To fit these cases, we combine the pair-wise approach with unit root or stationarity tests with structural breaks. Structural breaks are modelled by dummies (Zivot and Andrews, 1992; Kurozumi,2002) or as smooth structural breaks (Christopoulos and León-Ledesma, 2009). Overall results are not changed as convergence is not accepted more often. Finally, we consider the autocorrelation function approach of Caggiano and Leonida (2009). Autocorrelations and their confidence intervals are estimated for each output gap. Convergence between two regions is accepted if their per capita output gap autocorrelations become nonsignificantly different from zero after some lag. Results show that a high percentage of regions satisfy this convergence criterion. Contrary to the conclusions which could be made from previous results, shocks to output gaps seem to disappear as time passes.ou
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