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Seeing red: fury as strategy in China's Taiwan-related diplomacy
Full text linkFor observers of Chinese diplomacy, anger has become one of Beijing’s most recognisable signals on the topic of Taiwan. The pattern is a familiar one: a foreign government’s representative speaks about the island in a way that is considered unacceptable to China, sparking an immediate and remarkably well-coordinated backlash. Some of the responses from China’s diplomats, as Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently discovered, could be charitably characterised as robust
Meet the academic: Professor Ryan Martin
Full text linkRyan Martin is a professor at Iowa State University, visiting the UK as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of Birmingham between September 2025 and June 2026. In November 2025, he gave a talk at our seminar on Combinatorics, Games and Optimisation. The following is an edited transcript of an interview conducted by Dr Raimundo Saona Urmeneta
A discount rate for economic evaluations for Health Technology Assessment in Greece
Full text linkObjectives Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is a cornerstone of evidence-based decision-making in healthcare, with Economic Evaluation (EE) constituting an integral part of this process. A key methodological parameter in EEs is the discount rate, which allows for consistent valuation of future costs and benefits. In this study, we use Greece as a case study to provide an empirically grounded estimation of a country-specific social discount rate (SDR), combining international best practices with national economic conditions, projections and societal preferences. Methods For the analysis, we employ the Social Rate of Time Preference framework via an extended version of the Ramsey formula. The model parameters, i.e. pure rate of time preference, elasticity of marginal utility of consumption, expected per capita consumption growth, and the variance of consumption growth, were estimated based on national datasets on mortality, taxation, GDP growth, and demographic trends. The base-case estimate of the SDR was tested for robustness through a series of one-way sensitivity analyses (OWSA). Results The base-case estimate for the SDR in Greece was estimated at 3.42%. The OWSA revealed that the SDR was mostly influenced by variations in expected per capita consumption growth and pure rate of time preference. Conclusion This study provides an empirically grounded estimate of a country-specific social discount rate for Greece. The estimated value, lies well within interanationally used values in EEs. Our analysis underlines the importance of macroeconomic evidence and trends and highlights the need of future/periodic reassessments of the SDR to maintain alignment with economic and societal changes
Mapping educational inequalities in Wales: spatial and socio‐economic determinants of pupils' attainment
Full text linkUnderstanding spatial variations in educational outcomes is important for addressing educational inequalities. This study examines how socio‐economic factors and household characteristics influence age 16 standardised attainment across Wales using linked administrative and census data. In terms of methodology, we employed logistic regression modelling at the individual level, while at the Lower Layer Super Output Area level, we used both Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression. At the Individual level, results reveal strong associations between attainment and household characteristics, with household education level having positive effects, while socio‐economic disadvantage is negatively associated with attainment. The spatial analysis highlights significant variations in how these factors impact attainment across Wales. Household education level shows consistently positive effects throughout the country, while eligibility for free school meals and special educational needs demonstrate varying negative associations across small geographies. Overall, this study provides novel insights into the complex relationship between place, socio‐economic status, and educational outcomes in Wales. These findings suggest that one‐size‐fits‐all educational policies may be insufficient and emphasise the need for geographically targeted interventions
Save the climate but don’t blame us: corporate arguments in climate litigation
Full text linkFossil fuel companies no longer deny anthropogenic climate change in litigation, but they challenge the validity of climate science in establishing legal responsibility. Research on climate litigation, social movements, and legal mobilization has focused primarily on plaintiffs’ perspectives, showing how they use the judicial process as a site of knowledge production. This article shifts the focus onto defendants, conducting an analysis of scientific disputes in major climate change lawsuits and developing a typology grounded in both empirical analysis and theoretical insights for studying their arguments about science and evidence. Corporate defendants build evidentiary counter-narratives, challenge the substantive quality of plaintiffs’ claims, and contest the scientific integrity of compromising evidence. The future impact of such litigation will hinge on how courts evaluate climate research as legal evidence, and whether corporate defendants are successful in their efforts to reframe, undermine, and discredit the science
Managing uncertainty in medicines approval: empirical analyses of non-randomised evidence and regulatory practice
Full text linkThe introduction of new medicines to the market requires robust evidence about efficacy and safety, traditionally obtained from randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Aiming to accelerate market access, regulatory bodies in Europe (EMA) and the United States (FDA) increasingly accept uncertainty by granting approval based on non-randomised studies and surrogate endpoints. This thesis applies documentary analysis and meta-epidemiological methods to critically examine the methodological assumptions underpinning regulatory acceptance of uncertainty and the regulatory instruments used to manage it in three empirical studies. First, a meta-epidemiological study of 346 meta-analyses (2,746 studies) found no strong evidence of systematic over- or underestimation of treatment effects in non-randomised studies compared to RCTs overall. However, for a substantial proportion of clinical questions, the two study types led to different conclusions about existence or magnitude of effect, highlighting uncertainties about benefits and risks when substituting RCTs with non-randomised studies. Second, a comparative analysis between EMA and FDA of 21 cancer medicines approvals (2009-2013) with uncertainties in the pivotal trial evidence showed frequent divergence in regulatory outcomes, with one regulator granting full and the other conditional approval requiring confirmatory post-marketing studies or denying approval. When confirmatory studies were imposed, they were frequently delayed and continued to use non-randomised designs and surrogate endpoints. Third, a study of 55 EMA-approved cancer medicine indications (2014–2023) found that single-arm trials increasingly serve as pivotal evidence, yet justifications for accepting methodologically limited evidence were often unclear. For most indications, RCTs appeared feasible, but post-approval RCT evidence only demonstrated clinical benefit on patient-relevant outcomes for a minority of indications. The findings indicate that reliance on non-randomised studies for regulatory approval introduces uncertainty that may not be resolved post-approval. Regulators should leverage their position as gatekeepers to incentivise robust evidence generation as part of research and development programmes
Disability inclusion for early childhood care and development: the twin-track approach
No full textSince 2015, the global health community, through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), has committed to promoting equitable early childhood care and development that fosters inclusive education and lifelong learning for all children under the age of 5. Whereas several global policies on disability-inclusion recommend a twin-track approach to support people with disabilities, the application of this approach for children with disabilities in early childhood is unclear. In this article, we examine the concept of inclusion for children with disabilities in early childhood and how to address the inequalities they face through the globally recommended twin-track approach. We highlight key components of this approach for optimizing school readiness for children with varying severities of disability. We offer recommendations for addressing potential barriers to disability inclusion, based on evidence from multiple sources, and emphasize the need for a globally coordinated strategy to advance the global vision and commitments for children with disabilities
