1,721,018 research outputs found
Threats and opportunities in the digital era: Automation spikes and employment dynamics
Get PDFThis paper investigates the change in worker flows (i.e. net growth, but also hiring and separation rates) around an investment in automation-intensive goods and, within firms, across occupational categories. Resorting to an integrated dataset encompassing detailed information on firms, their imports, and employer-employee data for French manufacturing employers over the period 2002–2015, we identify ‘automation spikes’ using imports of capital goods embedding automation technologies. Even after controlling for firms’ non-random selection into automation, we find that automation spikes are linked to an increase in firms’ contemporaneous net employment growth rate, jointly explained by a higher hiring rate and a lower separation rate. Furthermore, we find that automation spikes are not associated with significant changes in the composition of the workforce (in terms of 1-digit and 2-digit occupational categories, and routine-intensive vs. non routine-intensive jobs)
Unconventional monetary policies in an agent-based model with mark-to-market standards
No full textWe employ an agent-based model to shed light on the macroeconomic effects of accounting principles, unconventional monetary policies, and of their possible interactions. If mark-to-market accounting standards may entail positive feedbacks which amplify economic or financial shocks, unconventional policies may introduce negative feedbacks that might dampen instabilities in financial and real markets. For these reasons, we jointly study these two sets of policies by employing a modified version of the Schumpeter meeting Keynes (K+S) macroeconomic agent-based model. Our results confirm that, due to its pro-cyclical nature, the mark-to-market accounting standard amplifies credit cycles, generating more instability with respect to a simulated economy wherein the historical accounting principle is employed. In contrast, unconventional monetary policy is counter-cyclical and it improves macroeconomic indicators. Finally, we study a scenario wherein mark-to-market accounting and unconventional monetary policy interact. We find that unconventional monetary policy can counterbalance the negative effects brought about by the application of mark-to-market accounting. Our results suggest that unconventional monetary policy instruments should not be considered as temporary interventions to be employed only during crisis periods. They should be part of the toolbox of central banks also in normal times
Micro and macro policies in the Keynes+Schumpeter evolutionary models
Get PDFThis paper presents the family of the Keynes+Schumpeter (K+S, cf. Dosi et al, J Econ Dyn Control 34 1748–1767 2010, J Econ Dyn Control 37 1598–1625 2013, J Econ Dyn Control 52 166–189 2015) evolutionary agent-based models, which study the effects of a rich ensemble of innovation, industrial dynamics and macroeconomic policies on the long-term growth and short-run fluctuations of the economy. The K+S models embed the Schumpeterian growth paradigm into a complex system of imperfect coordination among heterogeneous interacting firms and banks, where Keynesian (demand-related) and Minskian (credit cycle) elements feed back into the meso and macro dynamics. The model is able to endogenously generate long-run growth together with business cycles and major crises. Moreover, it reproduces a long list of macroeconomic and microeconomic stylized facts. Here, we discuss a series of experiments on the role of policies affecting i) innovation, ii) industry dynamics, iii) demand and iv) income distribution. Our results suggest the presence of strong complementarities between Schumpeterian (technological) and Keynesian (demand-related) policies in ensuring that the economic system follows a path of sustained stable growth and employment
Three green financial policies to address climate risks
No full textWhich policies can increase the resilience of the financial system to climate risks? Recent evidence on the significant impacts of climate change and natural disasters on firms, banks and other financial institutions call for a prompt policy response. In this paper, we employ a macro-financial agent-based model to study the interaction between climate change, credit and economic dynamics and test a mix of policy interventions. We first show that financial constraints exacerbate the impact of climate shocks on the economy while, at the same time, climate damages to firms make the banking sector more prone to crises. We find that credit provision can both increase firms’ productivity and their financial fragility, with such a trade-off being exacerbated by the effects of climate change. We then test a set of “green” finance policies addressing these risks, while fostering climate change mitigation: i) green Basel-type capital requirements, ii) green public guarantees to credit, and iii) carbon-risk adjustment in credit ratings. All the policies reduce carbon emissions and the resulting climate impacts, though moderately. However, their effects on financial and real dynamics is not straightforwardly positive. Some combinations of policies fuel credit booms, exacerbating financial instability and increasing public debt. We show that the combination of the three policies leads to a virtuous cycle of (mild) emission reductions, stable financial sector and high economic growth. Additional tools would be needed to fully adapt to climate change. Hence, our results point to the need to complement financial policies cooling down climate-related risks with mitigation policies curbing emissions from real economic activities
For whom the bell tolls: the firm-level effects of automation on wage and gender inequality
Get PDFThis paper investigates the impact of investment in automation- and AI- related goods on within-firm wage inequality in the French economy during the period 2002-2017. We document that most of wage inequality in France is accounted for by differences among workers belonging to the same firm, rather than by differences between sectors, firms, and occupations. Using an event-study approach on a sample of firms importing automation and AI-related goods, we find that spike events related to the adoption of automation- or AI-related capital goods are not followed by an increase in within-firm wage nor in gender inequality. Instead, wages increase by 1% three years after the events at different percentiles of the distribution. Our findings are not linked to a rent-sharing behavior of firms obtaining productivity gains from automation or AI adoption. Instead, if the wage gains do not differ across workers along the wage distribution, worker heterogeneity is still present. Indeed, aligned with the framework in Abowd et al. (1999b), most of the overall wage increase is due to the hiring of new employees. This adds to previous findings showing picture of a ‘labor friendly’ effect of the latest wave of new technologies within adopting firms
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Firm export diversification and change in workforce composition
No full textThe objective of this paper is to show that part of the fixed cost of a firm’s trade expansion is due to the acquisition of new internal capabilities (e.g., technology, production processes or skills), which implies a costly change in the firm’s internal labor organization. We investigate the relationship between a firm’s labor structure, in terms of the relative number of managers, and the scope of its export portfolio, in terms of its product–destination varieties. The empirical analysis is based on a matched employer–employee dataset covering the population of french firms from tradable sectors over the period 2009–2015. Our analysis suggests that market expansion, both through export entry and export diversification, is associated with a change in the firm’s workforce composition, namely an increase in the number of managerial layers. These results are generally confirmed with the use of an instrumental variable approach to control for reverse causality. We show how these results are consistent with a simple model, where the complexity of a firm’s operations increases with the number of product–destination couples exported and the manager’s role is to address the unsolved problems arising from such increased operational complexity
Killing a second bird with one stone? Promoting firm capital growth and exports through tax policy
Get PDFDoes a lower tax rate on profits promote the international activity of small and medium enterprises? This article addresses this question by exploiting a policy experiment in France. A reduction in corporate taxation is found to boost small and medium enterprises' capital growth and export participation, but to reduce employment growth. We estimate that a 50% reduction in the statutory tax rate induces, on average, a 29% increase in capital and a 6% increase in individual firms' probability of exporting. However, the estimated average treatment effect on the treated conceals substantial heterogeneity across firms with different initial productivity and size
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