328 research outputs found
Replication Data for: The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-2006: A Dynamic Factor Approach
No full textRitschl, Albrecht, Sarferaz, Samad, and Uebele, Martin, (2016) "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-2006: A Dynamic Factor Approach." Review of Economics and Statistics 98:1, 159-172
Replication Data for: The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-2006: A Dynamic Factor Approach
No full textRitschl, Albrecht, Sarferaz, Samad, and Uebele, Martin, (2016) "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-2006: A Dynamic Factor Approach." Review of Economics and Statistics 98:1, 159-172
Author Correction: Hydrogel mechanical properties in altered gravity (npj Microgravity, (2024), 10, 1, (83), 10.1038/s41526-024-00388-2)
No full textIn this article the affiliation, “Department of Aerospace Engineering, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi 127788, UAE” for the author “Yarjan Abdul Samad” was inadvertently omitted. The original article has been corrected
There Will Be Money
No full textA common belief among monetary theorists is that monetary equilibria are tenuous due to the intrinsic uselessness of fiat money (Wallace (1978)). In this article we argue that the tenuousness of monetary equilibria vanishes as soon as one introduces a small perturbation in an otherwise standard random matching model of money. Precisely, we show that the sheer belief that fiat money may become intrinsically useful, even if only in an almost unreachable state, might be enough to rule out nonmonetary equilibria. In a large region of parameters, agents' beliefs and behavior are completely determined by fundamentals.Fiat money, autarky, equilibrium selection
Structural Dynamic Conditional Correlation
No full textIn the literature of identifcation through autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity, Weber (2008) developed the structural constant conditional correlation (SCCC) model. Besides determining linear simultaneous in
uences between several variables, this model considers interaction in the structural innovations. Even though this allows for common fundamental driving forces, these cannot explain time variation in correlations of observed variables, which still have to rely on causal transmission eects. In this context, the present paper extends the analysis to structural dynamic conditional correlation (SDCC). The additional fexibility is shown to make an important contribution in the estimation of empirical real-data examples.Simultaneity, Identifcation, EGARCH, DCC
Liquidity and Capital Requirements and the Probability of Bank Failure
No full textUsing the model of Rochet and Vives (2004), this note shows that a prudential regulator can in general not mitigate a bank’s failure risk solely by means of liquidity requirements. However, their effectiveness can be restored if, in addition, minimum capital requirements are met. This provides a rationale for capital requirements beyond the commonly envoked reasoning that they are to be used to control the riskiness of banks’ asset portfolios.prudential regulation, liquidity requirements, minimum capital requirements, global games
ANALISIS ASPEK KEMASYARAKATAN MELALUI PEMIKIRAN A. SAMAD SAID DALAM NOVEL DAERAH ZENI DAN HUJAN PAGI
No full textAbstrak
Kajian ini dijalankan untuk menganalisis aspek kemasyarakatan melalui pemikiran oleh A. Samad Said dalam novel popular beliau yang bertajuk Daerah Zeni dan Hujan Pagi. Hal ini kerana aspek kemasyarakatan yang dibincangkan dalam novel oleh A. Samad Said dapat menggambarkan kekuatan pemikiran pengarang melalui kreativiti beliau yang dapat memberi sumber maklumat terkini kepada khalayak atau pembaca. Oleh itu, kajian ini juga dijalankan bertujuan mengenal pasti dan menganalisis aspek kemasyarakatan melalui pemikiran A. Samad Said dalam novel Daerah Zeni (1985) dan Hujan Pagi (1992). Di samping itu, reka bentuk kajian ini bersifat kualitatif melalui kaedah kepustakaan dan analisis kandungan teks. Selain itu, teori sosiologi dijadikan sebagai deduktif untuk memantapkan analisis perbincangan. Sebagai kesimpulannya, hasil dapatan kajian ini membuktikan bahawa A. Samad Said bijak mengutarakan cetusan idea dan kreativiti dalam usaha membincangkan isu semasa yang dapat diterima secara terbuka oleh masyarakat di dalam novel popular beliau.
Abstract
This study was conducted to analyze the aspects of society through the thinking by A. Samad Said in his popular novel titled Daerah Zeni and Hujan Pagi. This is because the societal aspects discussed in the novel by A. Samad Said can illustrate the strength of the author\u27s thinking through his creativity which can provide the latest sources of information to the audience or readers. Therefore, this study was also conducted by aiming at identifying and analyzing the aspects of society through the thinking by A. Samad Said in the novels Daerah Zeni (1985) and Hujan Pagi (1992). This study is qualitative in nature by using the library methods and text content analysis. In addition, sociological theory is used deductively to strengthen the analysis of the discussion. This study has proven that A. Samad Said has wisely expressed the spark of ideas and creativity in an effort to discuss current issues that can be openly accepted by the community in his popular novel.
 
Control-theoretic methods for biological networks
No full textFeedback is both a pillar of control theory and a pervasive principle of nature. For this reason, control-theoretic methods are powerful to analyse the dynamic behaviour of biological systems and mathematically explain their properties, as well as to engineer biological systems so that they perform a specific task by design. This paper illustrates the relevance of control-theoretic methods for biological systems. The first part gives an overview of biological control and of the versatile ways in which cells use feedback. By employing control-theoretic methods, the complexity of interlaced feedback loops in the cell can be revealed and explained, and layered feedback loops can be designed in the cell to induce the desired behaviours, such as oscillations, multi-stability and activity regulation. The second part is mainly devoted to modelling uncertainty in biology and understanding the robustness of biological phenomena due to their inherent structure. Important control-theoretic tools used in systems biology are surveyed. The third part is focused on tools for model discrimination in systems biology. A deeper understanding of molecular pathways and feedback loops, as well as qualitative information on biological networks, can be achieved by studying the “dynamic response phenotypes” that appear in temporal responses. Several applications to the analysis of biological systems are showcased.Accepted Author ManuscriptTeam Tamas Keviczk
Testing Multiplicative Error Models Using Conditional Moment Tests
No full textWe suggest a robust form of conditional moment test as a constructive test for func- tional misspecification in multiplicative error models. The proposed test has power solely against violations of the conditional mean restriction but is not affected by any other type of model misspecification. Monte-Carlo investigations show that an appro- priate choice of weighting function induces high power against various alternatives. We illustrate how to adapt the framework to test also out-of-sample moment restrictions, such as orthogonalities of prediction errors.Robust Conditional Moment Tests, Finite Sample Properties, Multiplicative Error Models, Prediction Errors
Essays on business cycle analysis and demography
No full textDiese Arbeit besteht aus vier Essays, die empirische und methodische Beiträge zur Messung von Konjunkturzyklen und deren Zusammenhänge zu demographischen Variablen liefern. Der erste Essay analysiert unter Zuhilfenahme eines Bayesianischen Dynamischen Faktormodelles die Volatilität des US-amerikanischen Konjunkturzyklus seit 1867. In dem Essay wird gezeigt, dass die Volatilität in der Periode vor dem Ersten Weltkrieg und nachdem Zweiten Weltkrieg niedriger war als in der Zwischenkriegszeit. Eine geringere Volatilität für die Periode nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg im Vergleich zu der Periode vor dem Ersten Weltkrieg kann nicht bestätigt werden. Der zweite Essay hebt die Bayesianischen Eigenschaften bezüglich dynamischer Faktormodelle hervor. Der Essay zeigt, dass die ganze Analyse hindurch - im Gegensatz zu klassischen Ansätzen - keine Annahmen an die Persistenz der Zeitreihen getroffen werden muss. Des Weiteren wird veranschaulicht, wie im Bayesianischen Rahmen die Anzahl der Faktoren bestimmt werden kann. Der dritte Essay entwickelt einen neuen Ansatz, um altersspezifische Sterblichkeitsraten zu modellieren. Kovariate werden mit einbezogen und ihre Dynamik wird gemeinsam mit der von latenten Variablen, die allen Alterklassen zugrunde liegen, modelliert. Die Resultate bestätigen, dass makroökonomische Variablen Prognosekraft für die Sterblichkeit beinhalten. Im vierten Essay werden makroökonomischen Zeitreihen zusammen mit altersspezifischen Sterblichkeitsraten einer strukturellen Analyse unterzogen. Es wird gezeigt, dass sich die Sterblichkeit von jungen Erwachsenen in Abhängigkeit von Konjunkturzyklen deutlich von den der anderen Alterklassen unterscheidet. Daher sollte in solchen Analysen, um Scheinkorrelation vorzubeugen, zwischen den einzelnen Altersklassen differenziert werden.The thesis consists of four essays, which make empirical and methodological contributions to the fields of business cycle analysis and demography. The first essay presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 derived from a Bayesian dynamic factor model. The essay finds that volatility increased in the interwar periods, which is reversed after World War II. While evidence can be generated of postwar moderation relative to pre-1914, this evidence is not robust to structural change, implemented by time-varying factor loadings. The second essay scrutinizes Bayesian features in dynamic index models. The essay shows that large-scale datasets can be used in levels throughout the whole analysis, without any pre-assumption on the persistence. Furthermore, the essay shows how to determine the number of factors accurately by computing the Bayes factor. The third essay presents a new way to model age-specific mortality rates. Covariates are incorporated and their dynamics are jointly modeled with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to the literature, a similar development of adjacent age groups is assured, allowing for consistent forecasts. The essay demonstrates that time series of covariates contain predictive power for age-specific rates. Furthermore, it is observed that in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts, implicating that ignoring parameter uncertainty might yield misleadingly precise predictions. In the fourth essay the model developed in the third essay is utilized to conduct a structural analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations and age-specific mortality rates. The results reveal that the mortality of young adults, concerning business cycles, noticeably differ from the rest of the population. This implies that differentiating closely between particular age classes, might be important in order to avoid spurious results
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