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Kryzys demokracji liberalnej - wybrane problemy rządzenia, legitymizacji i reprezentacji
Get PDFGłówna problematyka zawarta w tekście dotyczy: (1) znaczenia i zakresu kryzysu w gospodarce i polityce, (2) przyjęcia przez państwo i społeczeństwo logiki racjonalności ekonomicznej jako paradygmatu postępowania, (3) przewartościowania pojęcia polityki, co wiąże się m.in. z przyjęciem przez rządzących roli zarządców wybranych sfer państwa oraz z posługiwaniem się przez nich logiką „mieszanej racjonalności” („logiką władzy” i „logiką racjonalności ekonomicznej”), (4) wyzwań związanych z dystrybucją dóbr, (5) reprezentacji i legitymizacji w demokracji liberalnej.
Gospodarka kapitalistyczna wpływa na wszystkie sfery życia społecznego, co zmusza do przedstawienia jej „modus operandi”. Charakterystyczne cechy oddziaływania to: (1) racjonalność formalna, (2) dogmat efektywności i ilościowej mierzalności, (3) reprodukcja ideologii mówiącej o wolnej woli jednostki, niezależnie od kontekstu społecznego, (4) wymuszanie odpowiedniej dla siebie reprodukcji siły roboczej, (5) kolonizacja kolejnych sfer aktywności społecznej (np. edukacji i szkolnictwa wyższego), (6) wpływ na wykluczenie grup społecznych ze względu na poziom zabezpieczenia materialnego. Wszystko to sprowadzić można do pojęcia logiki racjonalności ekonomicznej.
Rządzący posługują się „mieszaną strategią”, która oparta jest na dwóch logikach postępowania – (1) logice władzy, (2) logice racjonalności ekonomicznej. Logika władzy to nic innego jak dążenie do zdobycia i utrzymania władzy, gdzie władza sama w sobie staje się celem, natomiast struktury państwa stanowią przestrzeń, którą należy przejąć lub opanować. Rządzący aby ukryć swoją bezideowość i konflikty w walce o przejęcie struktur państwa uprawiają politykę „na zewnątrz”, która przyjmuje formę „festiwalu” agonicznego dyskursu. Taka polityka możliwa jest dzięki rozdawnictwu podczas redystrybucji dóbr (niezgodnie z racjonalnością ekonomiczną) lub/i dzięki instrumentalnemu traktowaniu dystrybucji uznania. W związku z niemożnością utrzymania wysokiego poziomu rozdawnictwa, szczególnie w sytuacji kryzysu gospodarczego, rządzący chętnie posługują się logiką racjonalności ekonomicznej. Rozwiązania oparte na racjonalności ekonomicznej, mimo ich negatywnego odbioru przez społeczeństwo, wprowadzane są przy zastosowaniu argumentacji zagrożenia bezpieczeństwa (gospodarczego, socjalnego, narodowego itd.). Tym samym państwo wycofuje się z rządzenia na rzecz zarządzania niektórymi sferami państwa. Nie można tego nazwać inaczej jak „ucieczką” od odpowiedzialności, co jest szczególnie zauważalne w sytuacjach destabilizacji gospodarczej. W takich sytuacjach mamy do czynienia z „outsourcingiem zadań” państwa, co przyjmować może różne formy – (1) przenoszenie funkcji na inne instytucje przy zachowaniu kompetencji kontrolnych lub (2) przenoszenie obowiązków na inne własne instytucje, które wcześniej pełniły inną rolę. Wszystko to można nazwać rekonfiguracją funkcji państwa w związku z dominacją gospodarki kapitalistycznej i oddziaływaniem logiki racjonalności ekonomicznej.
W tekście podjęto również problem dystrybucji dóbr i uznania, jednakże jedynie w aspekcie jej instrumentalizacji przez rządzących. Można wysunąć tezę, że liberalne koncepcje wolności jednostki oraz priorytet dla własności prowadzą do łatwiejszego ideologicznego uzasadnienia stosowania mieszanych strategii i racjonalności. W tekście przedstawiono też tezę o instrumentalizacji dystrybucji dóbr, tzn. instrumentalnego wykorzystywania dowartościowania różnych mniejszości w ramach systemu politycznego. Należy też stwierdzić, że dominacja logiki wolnego rynku prowadzi do deprecjacji redystrybucji dóbr w stosunku do gloryfikacji problematyki uznania.
Tekst jest jedynie zarysowaniem problematyki wyczerpywania się formuły demokracji liberalnej, co przedstawiono na wybranych zagadnieniach. Podjęty problem demokracji liberalnej nie skupia się na próbie odtworzenia modelu tego rodzaju demokracji, raczej ważniejsze było stwierdzenie przejmowania w działaniu czegoś, co można określić mianem logiki racjonalności ekonomicznej. Wartą dalszego analizowania jest sama logika „mieszanej racjonalności”, którą sprowadzono do przenikania się „logiki władzy” i „logiki racjonalności ekonomicznej”.Tekst przedstawia problematykę wyczerpywania się formuły demokracji liberalnej. Analiza kryzysu demokracji liberalnej sprowadzona została do trzech problemów: (1) przejmowania przez system społeczno – polityczny „modus operandi” gospodarki kapitalistycznej, (2) stosowania mieszanej strategii politycznej („logiki władzy” i „logiki racjonalności ekonomicznej”), (3) problemu redystrybucji dóbr i uznania.
Tekst podzielono na pięć części, które zatytułowano następująco: (1), „Czy mamy do czynienia z kryzysem gospodarki i polityki?”, (2) „Racjonalność, logika gospodarki kapitalistycznej – modus operandi”, (3) „Polityka – mieszana racjonalność i dementia praecox”, (4) „Dystrybucja dóbr i uznania”, (5) „Reprezentacja i legitymizacja”.
W tekście wykorzystano dorobek naukowy I. Wallersteina (w zakresie racjonalności i rozwoju gospodarki kapitalistycznej), M. Webera (w zakresie racjonalności i koncepcji polityki), L. Althussera (w zakresie reprodukcji siły roboczej i środków produkcji, aparatów przemocy państwa i aparatów ideologicznych państwa), Ch. Mouffe (w zakresie ogólnego zapożyczenia pojęcia agonizmu), N. Frazer (w zakresie redystrybucji i uznania), E. Laclau (w zakresie podmiotowości i reprezentacji). W sposób skrótowy odniesiono się do dwóch liberalnych koncepcji redystrybucji dóbr – M. Friedmana i R. Nozicka. Ponadto dla opisu zjawisk i procesów politycznych w tekście posłużono się terminami z innych dyscyplin np. terminem „dementia praecox”
On the political dimension of political science – a few words about political dimension as the final judgment and reasoning
Get PDFThe subject of the text is the issue of the "political", which is defined as the nature and level of the final judgment and ultimate reasoning. The issues of this kind of the "political" has been attempted to distinguish in political sciences. The text focuses on: (1) the scientist as an agent for the final judgment and reasoning, (2) the subject of study of political science, (3) "theoretical strategies" in the science of politics. The latter problem has been discussed mainly on the example of Polish political science. Discussed were among others: (1) "the dilemma of scale", (2) limited operational capacity (methodological and theoretical), (3) aesthetic imagery of political life, (4) structural ignorance in the field of ontology, epistemology and methodology.Przedmiotem tekstu jest problematyka „polityczności”, którą określono jako naturę i poziom ostatecznego rozstrzygnięcia i uzasadnienia. Problematykę tak rozumianej „polityczności” próbowano wskazać w naukach politycznych. W tekście skupiono się na: (1) naukowcu jako podmiotowi dokonującemu ostatecznego rozstrzygnięcia i uzasadnienia, (2) przedmiocie badań nauk o polityce, (3) „strategiach teoretycznych” w naukach o polityce
Ostatni z wymienionych problemów został omówiony głównie na przykładzie polskiej politologii. Poruszono m.in. kwestie: (1) „dylematu skali”, (2) ograniczonych możliwości operacyjnych (metodologiczno-teoretycznych), (3) estetycznej metaforyki życia politycznego, (4) strukturalnej ignorancji w zakresie ontologii, epistemologii i metodologii
Counter-Terrorist Security: the Example of the Special Powers of the Polish Special Services in the Field of Surveillance of Foreign Nationals
Get PDFThe material scope of the analysis presented in this paper refers to special powers held by the Polish special services with respect to the surveillance of foreign nationals in connection with terrorist threats and terrorist offenses. This paper connects the issue of anti-terrorist measures with the assessment of the effectiveness of the Polish special services and with the assessment of potential social costs, which are related to the increase in the powers held by these services in the field of surveillance of Polish citizens and foreign nationals. The analysis of the powers of the special services focuses on the powers of one of the counterintelligence services, i.e. theInternal Security Agency (Polish: ABW).The purpose of this paper is to indicate the consequences of the introduction of legal changes concerning the powers held by the special services in the scope of applying particular types ofsurveillance activities (operational-and-intelligence activities). It poses the following research questions: (1) To what extent can mechanisms in Polish law influence the effectiveness of combating terrorism by the Polish special services? (2) To what extent can mechanisms in Polish law in the field of combating terrorism violate the rights and freedoms of Polish citizens andforeign nationals? In order to answer the research questions, the activities and powers of Polish special services were analyzed from a legal and institutional point of view. On the other hand,to analyze legal regulations related to surveillance, the author applied a dogmatic and doctrinal interpretation and a pro-constitutional interpretation of the provisions of criminal law
Espionage against Poland in the Documents and Analyses of the Polish Special Services (1944 - 1989) - as Illustrated by the Intelligence Activities of the USA
Get PDFThe text analyses the intelligence activity against Poland in the period 1944-1989. The paper also contains a case study, i.e. an analysis of the American intelligence service activity held against Poland. While examining the research thesis, the author used the documents and analyses prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs. In order to best illustrate the point, the author presented a number of cases of persons who spied for the USA, which was possible thanks to the analysis of the training materials of the Ministry of Internal Affairs directed to the officers of the Security Service and the Citizens’ Militia.
The text tackles the following issues: (1) to what extent did the character of the socio-political system influence the number of persons convicted for espionage against Poland in the period under examination?, (2) what was the level of interest of the foreign intelligence services in Poland before the year 1990?, (3) is it possible to indicate the specificity of the U.S. intelligence activity against Poland?
1) The analysis of data indicates that the period 1946-1956 witnessed a great number of convictions for espionage, which is often associated with the peculiar political situation in Poland of that time. Up to 1953, the countries of the Eastern bloc had reproduced the Stalin’s system, which only ceased due to the death of Stalin himself. Since then, the communist systems gradually transformed into the system of nomenklatura. Irrespective of these changes, Poland still witnessed a wave of repressions, which resulted from the threats continuously looming over the communist authorities – combating the anti-communist underground movement, fighting with the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, the Polish government-in-exile, possible revisionism of borders, social discontent related to the socio-political reforms. Hence, a great number of convictions for espionage at that time could be ascribed to purely political sentences. Moreover, equally significant was the fact that the then judicial practice was preoccupied assessing negatively any contacts and relations with foreigners. This excessive number of convictions could ensue from other criminal-law provisions, which applied with respect to the crimes against the State, including espionage. What is also important is the fact that in the Stalin’s period the judiciary personnel acquired their skills and qualifications through intensive courses in law with the predominant spirit of the theory of evidence and law by Andrey Vyshinsky. Additionally, by the decree of 1944 the Penal Code of the Polish Armed Forces was introduced; the code envisaged the increase in the number of offences classified as penalised with death penalty, whereas the high treason was subject to the military jurisdiction (the civilians were prosecuted in military courts till 1955; the espionage, however, still stood under the military jurisdiction). In 1946, there was introduced the Decree on particularly dangerous crimes in the period of the State’s recovery, which was later called a Small Penal Code.
2) The interest that foreign intelligence services expressed in relation to Poland was similar to the one they had in all countries of Eastern and Central Europe. In the case of Poland, it should be noted that foreign intelligence services recruited Polish citizens who had previously stayed abroad and after WWII returned to their home country. The services also gathered information from Poles staying in immigrant camps (e.g. in FRG). The activity of the American intelligence service on the territory of FRG and West Berlin played a key role. The documents of the Ministry of Internal Affairs pointed to the global range of this activity, e.g. through the recruitment of Polish sailors in the ports of the Netherlands, Japan, etc. In line with the development in the 1970s, espionage, which had so far concentrated on the defence and strategic sectors, became focused on science and technology of the People’s Republic of Poland. The acquisition of collaborators in academic circles was much easier, as PRL opened to academic exchange. Due to the system of visas, the process of candidate selection for intelligence services (e.g. the American) began in embassies. In the 1980s, the activity of the foreign intelligence services concentrated on the specific political situation in Poland, i.e. the growing significance of the “Solidarity” social movement.
3) The specificity of the American intelligence activity against Poland was related to the composition of the residency staff, which was the largest in comparison to other Western countries. The wide range of these activities can be proved by the quantitative data of convictions for espionage in the years 1944-1984 (however, one has to bear in mind the factors mentioned earlier in the text, which led to the misinterpretation of these data). Analysing the data and the documents prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, one should treat them with caution, as, frequently, the Polish counter-intelligence service used to classify the ordinary diplomatic practice and any contacts with foreigners as espionage threats. It is clearly visible in the language of the training materials concerned with “secret service methods of the intelligence activity” as well as in the documents on operational activities of the Security Service in relation to foreigners. The level of interest the USA had in Poland was mirrored in the classification of diplomatic posts, according to which Warsaw occupied the second place (the so-called Group “B”) on the three-point scale. The CIA experienced spectacular defeats during their activity in Poland: supporting the Polish underground anti-communist organisation Freedom and Independence and the so-called Munich-Berg episode (both cases took place in the 1950s).
The text focuses only on selected issues related to the espionage activities against Poland. Similarly, the analysis of the problem has been based on selected sources, which has limited the research scope - however, it was not the aim of the author to present the espionage activity against Poland in a comprehensive way. In order to assess the real threat posed by the espionage activity, one should analyse the case of persons convicted for espionage in the period 1944-1989, as the available quantitative data, mentioned in the text, cannot constitute an explicit benchmark for the scale of espionage activity. The inaccuracies in the interpretation of data and variables, which can affect the evaluation of this phenomenon, have been pointed out in the text.The text is treats of the espionage against Poland in the period 1944-1989. The above analysis has been supplemented with the quantitative data from the period 1944-1984 as regards those convicted for participating in, acting for, and passing on information to the foreign intelligence agencies. The espionage issues were presented on the example of the American intelligence activity, which was illustrated by the cases of persons who were convicted for espionage. While examining the research thesis, the author used the documents and analyses prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which were in its major part addressed to the Security Service and the Citizens’ Militia officers. The author made an attempt at the verification of the following research hypotheses: (1) to what extent did the character of the socio-political system influence the number of persons convicted for espionage against Poland in the period under examination (1944-1989)?, (2) what was the level of foreign intelligence services’ interest in Poland before the year 1990?, (3) is it possible to indicate the specificity of the U.S. intelligence activity against Poland
The protection of internal security and constitutional order as exemplified by the tasks and activity of the Internal Security Agency – a critical analysis of de lege lata and de lege ferenda regulations
Get PDFGłównym celem artykułu jest przedstawienie problematyki ochrony bezpieczeństwa wewnętrznego i porządku konstytucyjnego przez pryzmat zadań i działań Agencji Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego w Polsce. W tekście przedstawiono kilka pytań: (1) W jakim stopniu brak szczegółowego określenia zakresu działalności ABW wpływa na instrumentalne wykorzystanie tej służby specjalnej, (2) Czy dość ogólne regulacje prawne, w zakresie zadań ABW, wpływają na niższą efektywność działania tej służby specjalnej? (3) Czy niewłaściwy sposób regulacji kwestii związanych z zadaniami ABW wynika z niskiego poziomu legislacji polskiego legislatora, czy może z chęci pozostawienia służbom specjalnym dość dużej swobody działania?
W związku z pytaniami przedstawiono następujące stwierdzenia: (1) Wybrane i analizowane rozwiązania prawne nie zmieniają zbytnio, zakresu stosowania "specjalnych środków", takich jak kontrola operacyjna czy dostęp do danych telekomunikacyjnych. W art. 3 Projektu z 2014r. znajduje się zbyt wiele zwrotów niedookreślonych oraz zwrotów, których definicji legalnych trudno szukać w polskim ustawodawstwie; (2) słusznie ograniczono zadania ABW w zakresie chociażby przestępczości narkotykowej, jednakowoż w innych wypadkach w zakresie działań ABW w zasadzie niewiele się zmienia, a nakierowanie na określony rodzaj zagrożeń i przestępstw będzie "decyzją polityczną" Szefa ABW jak i Ministra Spraw Wewnętrznych; (3) Część chybionych rozwiązań jest wynikiem niskiej "kultury legislacyjnej", w tym wypadku na poziomie Ministerstwa Spraw Wewnętrznych. Możliwe, że uchybienia są wynikiem pospiesznych prac nad projektami, jednakowoż prace te mają zawsze "wymiar polityczny". W tworzeniu rozwiązań na pewno dużą rolę odegrały interesy samych służb i interes państwa.The main objective of the paper is to present the issues of the protection of internal security and constitutional order in view of the tasks and activities of the Internal Security Agency in Poland. The author of the text seeks answers to the following questions. (1) To what extent does the lack of clear-cut frames for the ISA’s activity influence the instrumental use of this agency? (2) Do over-generalised legal regulations on the ISA’s activities lead to poorer efficiency of this agency’s operations? (3) Does faulty regulation related to the ISA’s range of activities result from inadequacies in Polish legislation, or maybe from the intention to endow the special services with greater freedom of action?
In reference to the above questions, the author puts forward the following theses: (1) the selected and analysed legal instruments exert an infinitesimal influence on the scope of the application of “special measures”, such as the operational control or access to telecommunications data. Art. 3 of the Bill of 2014 contains too many vague terms or expressions whose legal definitions are missing from Polish legislation; (2) it seems reasonable that the range of the ISA’s activities has been restricted, e.g. as regards drug-related crime. However, other areas of the ISA’s interest have witnessed few changes, and its impromptu involvement with specific threats and offences is left to the ‘political decision’ of the Head of the ISA and the Minister of the Interior; (3) the impractical solutions are partly a result of an inadequate ‘legislative culture’, in this case, at the level of the Ministry of the Interior. This shortcoming might be the result of excessive haste during work on the Bill; nevertheless, such works always carry a political load, which means that the interests of the services themselves, as well as of the state, played an enormous role in this project
Poland’s Gas Security
Get PDFThe subject matter analyzed in the text is Poland’s energy security as illustrated with the security of gas supply (gas supply security). The text analyzes a selection of problems concerned with gas security and so the focus is on: (1) a description of gas supply contracts, and (2) an assessment of gas supply security with regard to the technical import capabilities of the transmission infrastructure. In both cases two time-frames were applied: (1) 2006–2010, (2) the period after 2010 with a prospect for 2022.
The text goes on to verify the following questions: (1) In what scope was real action undertaken in order to strengthen the security of gas supply to Poland in the years 2006–2010?, (2) How have the technical and real capabilities to diversify the gas supply to Poland changed after 2010
Energy Transition and Transformation. The World, the European Union and Poland
Get PDFThe main aim of this publication is to expose the reader to basic problems and directions of research into processes and changes in energy structures and technologies. The present work is primarily an overview with regard to a presentation of theoretical aspects of technology and energy paradigms as well as theoretical aspects of energy transitions and transformations. The reference materials that have been gathered and written up, and which concern the research problem have been supplemented with the author’s own conclusions and evaluations. The theoretical issues have been supplemented with two case studies concerned with a transformation of coal paradigms. In the former case an analysis is performed of the transformation of coal paradigm in the world and member states of the European Union, while in the latter case the analysis focuses on the transformation of coal paradigm in Poland. In both cases a long historical perspective has been adopted so as to demonstrate the main points of energy substitution or a lack thereof.
The presentation of theoretical issues, which encompasses such categories as a “paradigm,” a “transition” and a “transformation” is intended to demonstrate a logical sequence between T.S. Kuhn’s concept of science, evolutionary economics, J.A. Schumpeter’s innovation studies, innovation studies within the neo-Schumpeterian trend and variants of social study of technology.
The acceptance of a possibility of change of technology and energy paradigms results in referring to analyses addressing the issues concerned with energy transitions and transformations. It must be pointed out that in the source literature various terms are used to define processes and changes in the energy industry, e.g. a transition, a transformation and a revolution. Sometimes use of a specific term is made because of a methodological and theoretical position taken or because of ideological inclinations; at other times a choice of a given term is made for instrumental reasons. An intentional distinction of kinds of processes and changes can be exemplified with the typology put forward by F.G. Geels and J. Schot. It considers a reproduction, a technological substitution, a transformation, a reconfiguration and a shift with a return to stability. In a narrow sense, processes and changes in the energy industry usually come down to the issues concerned with the substitution of carriers or energy technologies, while broader approaches allow for a role of a great many factors in the processes and changes, e.g. cultural, social, institutional and political ones; also, a variety of effects of substitutions is pointed to.
It is well-nigh impossible to present in the introduction all the researchers whose works have contributed to the study of processes and changes in energy structures and technologies. One part of this work makes a synthesis of the main research directions. For this purpose, use is made of earlier research papers, which have been supplemented with the author’s own conclusions. Still, it is worth naming such figures as R. Fouquet, A. Grübler, C. Marchetti, N. Nakićenović, P.J.G. Pearson, V. Smil and B.K. Sovacool. With regard to the contribution to the synthesis of the studies of processes and changes in the energy industry, it is worth mentioning the following texts: Energy transitions research: Insights and cautionary tales by A. Grübler, How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions by B.K. Sovacool, and Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions: A meta-theoretical framework by A. Cherp, V. Vinichenko, J. Jewell, E. Brutschin, B.K. Sovacool. As for the significance of quantitative research with regard to turning points and pace of energy substitutions, it is worth mentioning a joint publication by N. Nakićenović and C. Marchetti entitled The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model, and another joint publication by N. Nakićenović and A. Grübler entitled The Dynamic Evolution of Methane Technologies. With regard to the contribution to the analyses considering further-reaching historical perspectives, and with regard to in-depth research into the services of end-use of lighting, transport and energy supply, it is worth mentioning texts by R. Fouquet and P.J.G. Pearson, e.g. Five Centuries of Energy Prices and Seven Centuries of Energy Services: The Price and Use of Light in the United Kingdom (1300–2000). With regard to the contribution to the synthetic approach to energy structure transformations in Europe in a further-reaching historical perspective, it is worth mentioning a publication edited by A. Kander, P. Malanima and P. Warde entitled Power to the People: Energy in Europe over the Last Five Centuries. Last but not least, it is worth mentioning V. Smil, whose works are most comprehensive and include synthetic approaches to changes in energy structures in longer time-frames and analyses of turning points and pace of energy substitutions. V. Smil is also an author of many publications which aim to introduce the reader to the subject of energy and energy technologies
China and India and European Energy Security
Get PDFArtykuł dotyczy relacji, które zachodzą w zakresie pozycji między Chinami, Indiami i Europą. Konsekwencją rozwoju gospodarczego – szczególnie Chin i Indii – jest wzrost zapotrzebowania na energię. Bogate zasoby węgla w Chinach nie są w stanie zaspokoić znacznego wzrostu zapotrzebowania na energię. Przykładowo: przewiduję się, że wzrost importu ropy naftowej przez Chiny w ciągu 20 – 30 lat wzrośnie o połowę. Z podobną sytuacją mamy do czynienia w Indiach. Oba kraje poszukują rozwiązań, które umożliwiłby zwiększenie własnego bezpieczeństwa energetycznego. Oczywiście działania te nie zawsze muszą współgrać z polityką krajów europejskich, jak i Unii Europejskiej w tym samym zakresie. Z jednej stronny mamy imponujący rozwój gospodarczy krajów azjatyckich, z drugiej strony konieczność dostarczenia tej „lokomotywie gospodarczej” wystarczającego „paliwa”. Ekonomiści twierdzą, że rozwój Chin i Indii wywiera pozytywny wpływ na światową gospodarkę, ale w kontekście kreacji rywalizacji (czyt. konkurencji). W przypadku bezpieczeństwa energetycznego, jako jednego z elementu bezpieczeństwa podmiotu państwowego, nie zawsze musi to mieć tak pozytywny skutek. Pozycja Europy w tym kontekście ulega zachwianiu, tzn. że Europa i kraje UE stają się jednym z wielu podmiotów, które stają w kolejce po surowce i energię, i wcale nie oznacza to, że muszą stać przed krajami azjatyckim. Wszystko to wpływa m.in. na: rozwój nowych technologii energetycznych, poszukiwania nowych źródeł surowców, wzrostu cen energii i surowców, a także na zmianę struktury energetycznej (np. energia odnawialna czy jądrowa).The article will concern the relations between China, India and Europe in respect to their position. The consequence of the economic development especially in China and India is the increase in energy demand. Rich coal resources in China are not enough to satisfy a significant increase in energy demand. For instance, it is thought that the oil import in the next 20-30 years will go up by 50 %. A similar situation can be observed in India. Both countries are searching for solutions to increase their energy security. Surely, such actions do not necessarily correspond with policies of other European countries and UE. On the one hand, there is an impressive economic development of Asian countries, but on the other hand, there is a necessity to meet their demands. Economists claim that Chinese and Asian development exerts a positive influence on world economy but in the context of competition . In case of energy security, as one of the elements of national security, it does not have to have a positive effect. The position of Europe in this respect becomes unstable. It means that Europe and UE countries are one of those entities which queue for natural resources and energy and it does not necessarily mean that they have to be before Asian countries. All this has an influence on, for instance, the development of new energy technologies, searching new sources of natural resources, the increase in energy and resources prices and also on changes in energy structure ( e.g. renewable or nuclear energy)
Energy Cultures in the European Union
Get PDFThe main object of the analysis presented in the text was to point to and confirm the existence of special “energy cultures” in the European Union. In order to achieve this aim the use was made of research present in the literature, inter alia, in the publications containing statistical analyses by: (1) A. Pach-Gurgul, (2) P. Tapio and his research team – Banister, J. Luukkanen, J. Vehma i R. Willamo, also in a review, (3) Z. Łucki and W. Misiak. Compared with the invoked research, the timeframe of the analysis in the text covered 2011, and the subjective scope embraced 28 countries (EU-28).
As part of the research process the following research hypotheses were subjected to verification: (1) It must be assumed that the dissimilarities in energy structures of particular EU member states are an outstanding premise on which to base a recognition of the existence of specific “energy cultures” in the European Union, (2) It must be assumed that in the period of 2001-2011 there occurred changes in the area of “energy cultures” of the European Union, which had earlier been recognised in the literature. In this scope the following conclusions ought to be presented:
I. CONCLUSIONS: The differences in energy structures result in the possibility of pointing to particular features characterising member states and clusters of countries, partially because of the predominance of specific energy carriers and/or a way of their conversion. On account of the use of selected indexes for the purpose of characterising the specificity of the European Union member states, six clusters have been distinguished, and they include the following countries: (1) Spain, France, Italy and Great Britain; (2) Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia and Poland; (3) Denmark, Ireland, Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Austria, Slovenia, Finland and Sweden; (4) Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Portugal, Romania and Slovakia; (5) Germany; (6) Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.
An observable cluster that recurs in the research by A. Pach-Gurgul as well as in the analysis presented in the text covering 2011, embraces Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia and Poland (Cluster II). As for Ward’s method the cluster is broader, but features an outstanding group of the above-mentioned countries (also including: Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania). Besides, in this model, in comparison with A. Pach-Gurgul’s research, another cluster is by and large repeated, including Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Portugal, Romania and Slovakia – Cluster IV (for a variety of reasons Croatia and Portugal are not repeated). The characteristic feature of both clusters is a higher scale of the index of energy intensity (kgoe/€1000). This shows that it is legitimate to recognise the existence of the division of the European Union into the two “energy cultures”: the Western European one and Eastern European one. The main factor behind this division is the energy intensity of the economies of individual member states. Unlike the analysis by P. Tapio and his research team, the axis of division has changed considerably, for within the so-called “old” European Union (EU-15) there was an observable general division into the Northern European and Southern European “energy cultures.”
Both the above-mentioned clusters (II and IV) can be associated with the “Eastern European culture” as part of the division presented by Z. Łucki and W. Misiak. The energy culture distinguished by the two researchers is to be characterised by: (1) a variety of energy policies, (2) a high energy intensity of the economy, (3) a low electric energy consumption, (4) limited awareness, (5) a negative attitude towards energy market liberalisation. In the case of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Poland (Cluster II), the characteristic feature is a considerable share of solid fuels in the energy mix of the gross inland energy consumption. The countries included in Cluster IV are characterised by a smaller share of solid fuels and a higher diversity of energy structure.
As part of the k-means clustering method, it is worth pointing out two clusters of countries: Cluster I (Spain, France, Italy, Great Britain) and Cluster V (Germany). The countries in both clusters belong to the so-called “old” European Union, and their main feature is a substantial level of energy production, Germany being the largest producer. In both cases, the characteristic features are a marked share of renewable energy sources, gas as well as petroleum and petroleum products in the gross inland energy consumption. Furthermore, both clusters are characterised by a low or relatively low index of energy intensity (kgoe/€1000).
As part of the clustering based on the k-means method, in both periods, that is in 2001 and 2011 the cluster comprising Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands was repeated. This cluster is characterised by a high index of energy consumption per capita and a high index of GHG emission per capita.
II. CONCLUSIONS: It must be emphasised that the period 2001-2010 is connected with the transition process of the electric energy and gas sectors in the European Union. The process is also associated with the introduction of the 1st Climate-Energy Package in the European Union. What is more, the changes will be continued on account of the efforts at building an Energy Union as well as the implementation of the so-called 2nd Climate-Energy Package. Of particular significance is also the increase in the import dependence of the European Union, given the declining reserves of energy resources. Moreover, the objectives of the “green energy policy” will be giving rise to the increasing energy efficiency and the growing share of renewable energy sources in energy production, which may constitute a factor limiting the import dependence. Thus, it should be posited that in the long term we will be witnessing a homogenisation of indexes, e.g. the index of energy intensity.
These processes may result in the tendency for changes towards the model of the “energy culture,” which Z. Łucki and W. Misiak have termed a “Scandinavian culture,” that is one characterised by the following features: (1) a development of RES, (2) a low consumption of coal, (3) a low index of GHG emission, (4) a considerable energy consumption, (5) a low energy intensity, (6) a heightened environment- and energy-consciousness.
By way of comparing the analyses for 2011 and for 2001, based on the k-means clustering method, it must be stressed that Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands hold steady in the cluster (Cluster VI), whereby they abide by the roles played by the features earlier ascribed to them. A measure of stability can also be observed in the case of Spain, France, Italy, Great Britain and Germany (Clusters I and V). Noteworthily, Sweden has been eliminated from the group (despite lowering the scale of the first three indexes).
The distinctive feature of Eastern European countries is the high scale of the energy intensity index, as viewed against the backdrop of Clusters I and IV. Yet, some tendency towards stirring of the scale of energy intensity index is to be observed in this scope. A transformation of the energy structure will also prove quite a challenge here. Poland can serve as an example, whereby coal will continue to be the country’s main electric energy carrier for the next 30 years.
The comparative analysis featuring in the text is limited, and so it does not address all the issues concerned with the correlations between the presented “energy cultures.” The work sets out to verify the results of the research into the existence of “energy cultures” in the European Union, as presented by A. Pach-Gurgul, Z. Łucki and W. Misiak as well as P. Tapio and his research team. Still, the greatest emphasis has been laid on the proposals made by A. Pach-Gurgul, for it was her publication as well as the selection of indexes and research tools included therein that proved to be an inspiration for the present text. It should also be noted that the object of analysis in the text does not embrace a discussion of the legitimacy of employing specific methods for clustering.The main objective of the text is to present an analysis that points to the existence of special “energy cultures” in the European Union. The comparative analysis encompassing the results of previous research into “energy cultures” employs statistical methods, i.e. a cluster analysis (Ward’s clustering method and k-means clustering method).
The main sections of the text address: (1) the concept and examples of “energy cultures,” (2) a methodology of analysis, (3) a selection of indexes characterising “energy cultures,” (4) an attempt at grouping the European Union member states with the aid of clustering, (5) conclusions.
With a view to making the research problem more specific, the present text features the following questions: (1) Is the claim that the European Union manifests special “energy cultures” legitimate?, (2) Did the decade of 2001-2011 witness changes in the field of the European Union “energy cultures,” as earlier recognised by the literature
Rynek energii elektrycznej w Polsce. Prognozy zapotrzebowania na energię elektryczną i prognozy cen energii elektrycznej
Get PDFThe subject of this paper is an analysis of the electricity market in Poland. The period of 2008–2015 came under close scrutiny, whereby emphasis was laid on the trends in electricity generation and demand, while taking into account the country’s economic development. In addition, the text mentions the forecasted demand for electricity in 2030, and electricity prices. As regards electricity prices, both qualitative and quantitative forecasts have been presented. In the latter case, the results of the author’s own forecast have been presented; these were obtained with the aid of selected methods applied for the analysis of the dynamics of economic phenomena (the exponential and linear trend models). In order to make the research problem more specific, the text addresses the following research questions: (1) Is it possible to point out any special characteristics of the structure and operation of the electricity market in Poland? (2) Is it possible to point out a characteristic trend in the changes in demand for electricity in Poland? (3) Is it possible to point out a characteristic trend inthe changes in electricity prices in Poland?Przedmiotem analizy w tekście jest charakterystyka funkcjonowania rynku energii elektrycznej w Polsce. Bardziej szczegółowej analizie poddano lata 2008–2015; położono w niej nacisk na trendy w produkcji i zapotrzebowaniu na energię elektryczną, przy uwzględnieniu rozwoju gospodarczego kraju. Ponadto w tekście uwzględniono prognozy w zakresie zapotrzebowania na energię elektryczną na 2030 r. i prognozy cen na energię elektryczną. W przypadku prognoz cen na energię elektryczną zaprezentowano zarówno prognozę jakościową, jak i ilościową. W ostatnim przypadku zaprezentowano wyniki z własnej prognozy, które uzyskano za pomocą zastosowanych wybranych metod analizy dynamiki zjawisk ekonomicznych (model wykładniczy i model liniowy trendu). W związku z koniecznością uszczegółowienia problemu badawczego w tekścieprzedstawiono następujące pytania badawcze: (1)Czy można wykazać specyficzne cechy, które charakteryzowałyby strukturę i funkcjonowanie rynku energii elektrycznej w Polsce? (2) Czy można wskazać charakterystyczny trend w zakresie zmian zapotrzebowania na energię elektryczną w Polsce? (3) Czy można wskazać charakterystyczny trend w zakresie zmian cen energii elektrycznej w Polsce
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