1,720,963 research outputs found
Predicting Stock Market Movements Using Machine Learning Techniques
No full textThe purpose of this paper is to compare the performance of various state-of-the-art machine learning techniques in predicting the behavior of stock-market returns. To do so, we gathered ten years of daily historical data (2488 observations per stock) for the top ten most liquid stocks in Casablanca Stock Exchange (Morocco) and trained six machines learning classifiers (ridge regression, LASSO regression, support-vector machine, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and adaptive boosting) and an ensemble of them (i.e. ensemble learning) in order to predict one-day-ahead, one-week-ahead, and one-month-ahead prices direction (i.e. positive or negative returns). The performance of each algorithm is then evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores. Applying the Diebold-Mariano test at a significance level of 5%, we have found that support-vector machine, random forest, and adaptive boosting perform equally well and outperform all other single classifiers for short-term predictions (one-day-ahead and one-week-ahead). However, for monthly predictions, all methods display similar predictive accuracy. In addition, our study suggests that ensemble learning significantly improves all performance metrics for the three prediction horizons. We have also found that for all models the performance significantly decreases as the prediction horizon increases.The purpose of this paper is to compare the performance of various state-of-the-art machine learning techniques in predicting the behavior of stock-market returns. To do so, we gathered ten years of daily historical data (2488 observations per stock) for the top ten most liquid stocks in Casablanca Stock Exchange (Morocco) and trained six machines learning classifiers (ridge regression, LASSO regression, support-vector machine, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and adaptive boosting) and an ensemble of them (i.e. ensemble learning) in order to predict one-day-ahead, one-week-ahead, and one-month-ahead prices direction (i.e. positive or negative returns). The performance of each algorithm is then evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores. Applying the Diebold-Mariano test at a significance level of 5%, we have found that support-vector machine, random forest, and adaptive boosting perform equally well and outperform all other single classifiers for short-term predictions (one-day-ahead and one-week-ahead). However, for monthly predictions, all methods display similar predictive accuracy. In addition, our study suggests that ensemble learning significantly improves all performance metrics for the three prediction horizons. We have also found that for all models the performance significantly decreases as the prediction horizon increases
Le rendement de l’éducation sur le marché du travail marocain : une analyse micro-économétrique
Get PDFCette contribution vise à estimer le gain marginal de l’éducation à partir du modèle de Mincer et de modèles alternatifs, pour prendre en compte d’autres variables sources de discrimination sur le marché du travail marocain ou corriger le biais de sélection.Les résultats, basés sur les données de l’Enquête Nationale sur l’Emploi (ENE) de 2011, montrent qu’une année supplémentaire d’éducation a un effet marginal positif sur le salaire et que, effectivement, l’expérience professionnelle et l’âge l’impactent positivement. Mais, ces derniers présentent des rendements décroissants dans le temps. De plus, les diplômes de la formation professionnelle ou de l’enseignement supérieur accordent un gain marginal positif significatif à leurs porteurs avec un avantage pour les derniers. Il existe, aussi une discrimination négative contre les femmes et entre les régions, puisque la région de Casablanca offre un avantage supplémentaire important par rapport à toutes les autres régions du Royaume
Comment les énergies renouvelables sont liées aux émissions de CO2 au Maroc entre 1990 et 2021 : une investigation empirique
Get PDFCes derniers années le Maroc a connu une croissance économique et démographique substantielle. Malgré des niveaux relativement bas des quantités des gaz à effet de serre(GES) émises, le pays reste vulnérable aux effets néfastes du changement climatique face à des difficultés croissantes liées à ses ressources naturelles. En réponse à ce risque, le Maroc a lancé d'importantes décisions ciblant à faire face au changement climatique et a développé des stratégies sectorielles diverses pour intégrer les considérations environnementales dans plusieurs secteurs tels que l'énergie, le transport, l'agriculture et le tourisme. Cela implique un accent stratégique sur l'adoption d'énergies renouvelables en tant que catalyseur principal pour atténuer les émissions de CO2, le principal GES.
Le but de ce papier est d’étudier l’impact de la quantité des énergies renouvelables consommée (RE) sur les émissions de dioxyde de carbone (CO2) au Maroc entre 1990 et 2021. Le test de causalité de Toda-Yamamoto est appliqué afin de mettre en lumière le lien dynamique entre les deux variables. Une corrélation neutre est détectée empiriquement, suggérant que l'énergie renouvelable n'a pas encore atteint l'autonomie nécessaire pour réduire indépendamment les émissions. Cette déviation des attentes hypothétiques conventionnelles souligne la nécessité d'une compréhension nuancée des mécanismes complexes liant les deux variables étudiées. Les résultats de cette recherche ont des implications substantielles pour les décideurs politiques et les économistes, offrant une perspective critique pour réévaluer les politiques existantes et explorer des voies alternatives par lesquelles les énergies renouvelables peuvent efficacement réduire les quantités de CO2 émises au Maroc. Cette étude peut contribuer au discours sur le développement durable de l'énergie, mettant en évidence l'importance de politiques bien fondées qui tiennent compte des dynamiques multifacettes entre l'intégration des énergies renouvelables et les niveaux d'émissions de CO2
Ouverture commerciale et financière et croissance économique au Maroc : Quelle dynamique à court et à long terme ?
Get PDFCette étude examine la nature et le sens des liens entre l’ouverture mesurée de différentes facettes et la croissance économique dans un cadre dynamique faisant distinction entre le court et le long terme, en utilisant les modèles autorégressifs à retards échelonnés et les modèles vectoriels à correction d'erreur pour le cas du Maroc entre 1980 et 2018.L’ouverture au commerce international est généralement favorable à la croissance économique marocaine à long terme, l’ouverture financière est défavorable à la croissance à court terme et n’a aucun effet à long terme. Le facteur capital a un impact significatif sur la croissance à long et à court terme, alors que le facteur travail a un effet négatif à court terme et la qualité institutionnelle nuit à l’économie marocaine. Les résultats relatifs à la dimension de jure, axée sur les fondements institutionnels et politiques de l’ouverture, ne suggèrent aucun effet significatif sur la croissance économique
The impact of e-servicescape on the flow and purchase intention of online consumers: Quantitative analysis of B to C e-commerce stores in Morocco
No full textIn the context of e-commerce, one of the first effective points of contact with the customer is the website. E-commerce is growing at an exponential rate and the corresponding web pages, called e-servicescape, now have a significant presence in driving loyalty and attracting new customers online. Nevertheless, the understanding of the attributes of e-servicescape remains unclear, due to the limited empirical evidence that has been obtained and reviewed. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate a conceptual model of the e-servicescape, flow, and purchase intentions. Using the S-O-R (Stimulus-Organism-Response) model, Bitner's model, flow theory, and the theory of planned behavior (TPB) as theoretical foundations. This study stems from the successful operationalization of a comprehensive multi-item (48 items in total), multi-scale (five scales), multi-dimensional (three) measure of e-servicescape, namely aesthetic appeal, layout/functionality and financial security, through a survey administered to 498 respondents residing in Morocco.
The results of this study reveal the history of consumers' online flows and their purchase intentions. Similarly, the study shows that consumers' interpretations of the e-servicescape dimensions have a significant impact on the flow. As a result, we found that the e-servicescape positively influences the flow, which in turn influences consumers' behavioral intentions.
This paper aims to give new impetus to the clarification of the concept of the e-servicescape of Moroccan e-commerce sites and to uncover the fundamental issue inherent in the relationship between the e-servicescape and consumer behavior. Finally, the results provide valuable insights into the factors on which theorists and practitioners should focus their efforts to better adapt their approaches.In the context of e-commerce, one of the first effective points of contact with the customer is the website. E-commerce is growing at an exponential rate and the corresponding web pages, called e-servicescape, now have a significant presence in driving loyalty and attracting new customers online. Nevertheless, the understanding of the attributes of e-servicescape remains unclear, due to the limited empirical evidence that has been obtained and reviewed. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate a conceptual model of the e-servicescape, flow, and purchase intentions. Using the S-O-R (Stimulus-Organism-Response) model, Bitner's model, flow theory, and the theory of planned behavior (TPB) as theoretical foundations. This study stems from the successful operationalization of a comprehensive multi-item (48 items in total), multi-scale (five scales), multi-dimensional (three) measure of e-servicescape, namely aesthetic appeal, layout/functionality and financial security, through a survey administered to 498 respondents residing in Morocco.
The results of this study reveal the history of consumers' online flows and their purchase intentions. Similarly, the study shows that consumers' interpretations of the e-servicescape dimensions have a significant impact on the flow. As a result, we found that the e-servicescape positively influences the flow, which in turn influences consumers' behavioral intentions.
This paper aims to give new impetus to the clarification of the concept of the e-servicescape of Moroccan e-commerce sites and to uncover the fundamental issue inherent in the relationship between the e-servicescape and consumer behavior. Finally, the results provide valuable insights into the factors on which theorists and practitioners should focus their efforts to better adapt their approaches
Study of the impact of Public Debt on Moroccan Economic Growth: ARDL model
Get PDFThere are a number of theoretical arguments that lead to the conclusion that an increase in the public debt ratio could lead to a reduction in growth due to a crowding-out effect of productive investment and the relative inefficiency of the State in the use of its resources. However, no argument is really convincing because, as usual in economics, theory does not provide a definitive answer.
The objective of this article is to study the impact of Morocco's total government debt on economic growth. We will estimate an ARDL model (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model), which is part of the class of dynamic models, and which makes possible to capture the temporal effects (adjustment time, anticipations, etc.) in the explanation of a variable.
Keywords: ARDL Model, Government debt, Economic Growth, Debt Crisis
JEL classification : H10, H60, O40
Paper Type: Empirical Researc
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
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