15 research outputs found
Investigate the Damage of Kinetic Energy High-Velocity Bird Impact on Three Different Model Spar by Using the Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian (CEL) Approach
No full textProposing 2-tier Architecture for Permission-ed and Permission-less Blockchain Consensus Algorithms Based on Voting System
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Symmetric Performance Analysis for Mechanical Properties of Sustainable Asphalt Materials under Varying Temperature Conditions: An Application of DT and NDT Digital Techniques
No full textDuring the development of symmetric asphalt concrete material samples, aggregates play a vital role in the performance of its production. Shape characteristics and aggregates geology are two major factors influencing strength parameters of the asphalt concrete mix. In this study, two different geological sources of aggregates with different shape characterizations have been utilized for the development of the asphalt concrete mix. In addition to that, the stability analysis has been performed under different temperature conditions ranging between 25 and 60 °C. By the application of the destructive technique (DT) and non-destructive technique (NDT), the performance of the asphalt concrete mix has been analyzed and compared based on the geology of aggregates under various temperatures. Furthermore, a statistical model has been developed to analyze the stability and performance of the developed asphalt concrete mix with reference to regional climatic conditions. This study will help in the development of symmetric formation of sustainable asphalt materials
Automation of Post-Order Costing Analysis by Using Visual Basic for Applications In Microsoft Excel: a Case Study
No full text[EN] Microsoft Excel is used to carry out reporting tasks in small and medium companies across the globe. Most people make reports manually in Microsoft Excel and the manual work takes a tremendous amount of time. The manual work can be easily automated with some effort in Microsoft Excel. This research is about the automation of report that was used to be made manually in Microsoft Excel.The present research is an extension of the previously conducted research (Kalwar, Shahzad, et al., 2022). The manual process to make the post-order costing analysis report in MS excel requires a lot of user time (22.80 minutes, just if there is a single order of only one article with one color), with the greater possibility of human error. Employees in an anonymous footwear company in Lahore used to generate the post-order costing report manually in Excel.Due to the above-mentioned reasons, it was proposedto automate the report using visual basic for applications (VBA) in Microsoft Excel.The planning and costing departmentof the company provided every single step required to make the report manually. A time study was conducted for each step of report preparation using the stopwatch. VBA macros were programmed for automating all manual report-related processes in Excel and the accuracy of the report was also verified. After the report was automated, the time study was again conducted to measure the execution time after each click. A comparison of both methods indicated that the report automation saved 83.18% of employees' time Additionally, the automated method resulted in an error-free report, and the employee`s workload was reduced as well.Kalwar, MA.; Khan, MA.; Wassan, AN.; Phul, Z.; Shaikh, SA.; Marri, HB. (2023). 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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22¿223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30¿763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31¿642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.Research reported in this publication was supported by the Gates Foundation, UK Department of Health and Social Care, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, and the New Zealand Ministry of Health. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with license no. SLN2019-8-64 and SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law-2000.Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 1836 autors/es: Austin E Schumacher, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Amirali Aali, Cristiana Abbafati, Jaffar Abbas, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Madineh Akram Abbasi, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Michael Abdelmasseh, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Ahmed Abdelwahab, Mohammad Abdollahi, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Ame Mehadi Abdurehman, Mesfin Abebe, Aidin Abedi, Armita Abedi, Tadesse M Abegaz, Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga, E S Abhilash, Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Mohamed Abouzid, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Woldu Aberhe Abrha, Michael R M Abrigo, Dariush Abtahi, Samir Abu Rumeileh, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Salahdein Aburuz, Ahmed Abu-Zaid, Juan Manuel Acuna, Tim Adair, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Oyelola A Adegboye, Victor Adekanmbi, Bashir Aden, Abiola Victor Adepoju, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa, Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye, Rishan Adha, Amin Adibi, Wirawan Adikusuma, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Saryia Adra, Abel Afework, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi, Ali Afraz, Shadi Afyouni, Saira Afzal, Pradyumna Agasthi, Shahin Aghamiri, Antonella Agodi, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Keivan Ahmadi, Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade, Mohadese Ahmadzade, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Luai A Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Budi Aji, Olufemi Ajumobi, Gizachew Taddesse Akalu, Essona Matatom Akara, Karolina Akinosoglou, Sreelatha Akkala, Samuel Akyirem, Hanadi Al Hamad, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Ammar Al Homsi, Mohammad Al Qadire, Moein Ala, Timothy Olukunle Aladelusi, Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal, Samer O Alalalmeh, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Manjurul Alam, Zufishan Alam, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Mohammed Albashtawy, Mohammad T AlBataineh, Robert W Aldridge, Sharifullah Alemi, Ayman Al-Eyadhy, Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi, Khalid F Alhabib, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa, Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi, Abid Ali, Akhtar Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Hassam Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Zahid Ali, Shohreh Alian Samakkhah, Gianfranco Alicandro, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Mohammad Aligol, Rasoul Alimi, Ahmednur Adem Aliyi, Adel Al-Jumaily, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Wael Almahmeed, Sabah Al-Marwani, Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri, Joseph Uy Almazan, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Omar Almidani, Mahmoud A Alomari, Nivaldo Alonso, Jaber S Alqahtani, Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Awais Altaf, Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq, Khalid A Altirkawi, Farrukh Jawad Alvi, Hassan Alwafi, Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi, Hany Aly, Karem H Alzoubi, Azmeraw T Amare, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Abebe Feyissa Amhare, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, Javad Aminian Dehkordi, Sohrab Amiri, Hubert Amu, Dickson A Amugsi, Jimoh Amzat, Robert Ancuceanu, Deanna Anderlini, Pedro Prata Andrade, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Dhanalakshmi Angappan, Abhishek Anil, Afifa Anjum, Catherine M Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Iyadunni Adesola Anuoluwa, Sumadi Lukman Anwar, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Muhammad Aqeel, Jalal Arabloo, Razman Arabzadeh Bahri, Morteza Arab-Zozani, Mosab Arafat, Ana Margarida Araújo, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Abdulfatai Aremu, Hany Ariffin, Timur Aripov, Benedetta Armocida, Mahwish Arooj, Anton A Artamonov, Kurnia Dwi Artanti, Judie Arulappan, Idowu Thomas Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo Aruleba, Ashokan Arumugam, Malke Asaad, Saeed Asgary, Mubarek Yesse Ashemo, Muhammad Ashraf, Marvellous O Asika, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout, Alok Atreya, Sameh Attia, Avinash Aujayeb, Abolfazl Avan, Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Getnet Melaku Ayele, Jose L Ayuso-Mateos, Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh, Sina Azadnajafabad, Gulrez Shah Azhar, Shahkaar Aziz, Ahmed Y Azzam, Mina Babashahi, Abraham Samuel Babu, Muhammad Badar, Alaa Badawi, Ashish D Badiye, Soroush Baghdadi, Nasser Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Sulaiman Bah, Saeed Bahadorikhalili, Jianjun Bai, Ruhai Bai, Jennifer L Baker, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Abdulaziz T Bako, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Saliu A Balogun, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Kiran Bam, Maciej Banach, Soham Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit Banik, Palash Chandra Banik, Hansi Bansal, Shirin Barati, Martina Barchitta, Mainak Bardhan, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Francesco Barone-Adesi, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Ronald D Barr, Lope H Barrero, Zarrin Basharat, Asma’u I J Bashir, Hameed Akande Bashiru, Pritish Baskaran, Buddha Basnyat, Quique Bassat, João Diogo Basso, Saurav Basu, Kavita Batra, Ravi Batra, Bernhard T Baune, Mohsen Bayati, Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn, Thomas Beaney, Neeraj Bedi, Tahmina Begum, Emad Behboudi, Amir Hossein Behnoush, Maryam Beiranvand, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi, Michelle L Bell, Aminu K Bello, Muhammad Bashir Bello, Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello, Luis Belo, Apostolos Beloukas, Salaheddine Bendak, Derrick A Bennett, Isabela M Bensenor, Habib Benzian, Zombor Berezvai, Adam E Berman, Amiel Nazer C Bermudez, Paulo J G Bettencourt, Habtamu B Beyene, Kebede A Beyene, Devidas S Bhagat, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Neeraj Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, Dinesh Bhandari, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Prarthna V Bhardwaj, Ashish Bhargava, Sonu Bhaskar, Vivek Bhat, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Manpreet S Bhatti, Rajbir Bhatti, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Boris Bikbov, Nada Binmadi, Bagas Suryo Bintoro, Antonio Biondi, Catherine Bisignano, Francesca Bisulli, Atanu Biswas, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Saeid Bitaraf, Tone Bjørge, Archie Bleyer, Mary Sefa Boampong, Virginia Bodolica, Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin, Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa, Milad Bonakdar Hashemi, Aime Bonny, Kaustubh Bora, Berrak Bora Basara, Safiya Bala Borodo, Rohan Borschmann, Alejandro Botero Carvajal, Souad Bouaoud, Sofiane Boudalia, Edward J Boyko, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Dejana Braithwaite, Hermann Brenner, Gabrielle Britton, Annie J Browne, Andre R Brunoni, Norma B Bulamu, Lemma N Bulto, Danilo Buonsenso, Katrin Burkart, Richard A Burns, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Reinhard Busse, Yasser Bustanji, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Tianji Cai, Daniela Calina, Luis Alberto Cámera, Luciana Aparecida Campos, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Chao Cao, Carlos Alberto Cardenas, Rosario Cárdenas, Sinclair Carr, Giulia Carreras, Juan J Carrero, Andrea Carugno, Felix Carvalho, Márcia Carvalho, Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Giulio Castelpietra, Ferrán Catalá-López, Alberico L Catapano, Maria Sofia Cattaruzza, Arthur Caye, Christopher R Cederroth, Francieli Cembranel, Muthia Cenderadewi, Kelly M Cercy, Ester Cerin, Muge Cevik, Pamela R Uscamaita Chacón-Uscamaita, Yaacoub Chahine, Chiranjib Chakraborty, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan, Chin-Kuo Chang, Periklis Charalampous, Jaykaran Charan, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Victoria Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou, Malizgani Paul Chavula, Huzaifa Ahmad Cheema, An-Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Lingxiao Chen, Meng Xuan Chen, Simiao Chen, Nicolas Cherbuin, Derek S Chew, Gerald Chi, Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres, Abdulaal Chitheer, So Mi Jemma Cho, William C S Cho, Bryan Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Rahul Choudhary, Rajiv Chowdhury, Dinh-Toi Chu, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Eric Chung, Eunice Chung, Sheng-Chia Chung, Karly I Cini, Cain C T Clark, Kaleb Coberly, Alyssa Columbus, Haley Comfort, Joao Conde, Sara Conti, Paolo Angelo Cortesi, Vera Marisa Costa, Ewerton Cousin, Richard G Cowden, Michael H Criqui, Natália Cruz-Martins, Garland T Culbreth, Patricia Cullen, Matthew Cunningham, Daniel da Silva e Silva, Sriharsha Dadana, Omid Dadras, Zhaoli Dai, Koustuv Dalal, Lachlan L Dalli, Giovanni Damiani, Emanuele D’Amico, Sara Daneshvar, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Jai K Das, Saswati Das, Nihar Ranjan Dash, Mohsen Dashti, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Nicole Davis Weaver, Kairat Davletov, Diego De Leo, Aklilu Tamire Debele, Louisa Degenhardt, Reza Dehbandi, Lee Deitesfeld, Ivan Delgado-Enciso, Laura Delgado-Ortiz, Daniel Demant, Berecha Hundessa Demessa, Andreas K Demetriades, Xinlei Deng, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Don C Des Jarlais, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Rupak Desai, Keshab Deuba, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Sourav Dey, Arkadeep Dhali, Kuldeep Dhama, Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal, Meghnath Dhimal, Sameer Dhingra, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Diaz, Adriana Dima, Delaney D Ding, M Ashworth Dirac, Abhinav Dixit, Shilpi Gupta Dixit, Thanh Chi Do, Thao Huynh Phuong Do, Camila Bruneli do Prado, Masoud Dodangeh, Klara Georgieva Dokova, Christiane Dolecek, E Ray Dorsey, Wendel Mombaque dos Santos, Rajkumar Doshi, Leila Doshmangir, Abdel Douiri, Robert Kokou Dowou, Tim Robert Driscoll, Haneil Larson Dsouza, John Dube, Samuel C Dumith, Susanna J Dunachie, Bruce B Duncan, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Senbagam Duraisamy, Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye, Sulagna Dutta, Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Oluwakemi Ebenezer, Ejemai Eboreime, Alireza Ebrahimi, Chidiebere Peter Echieh, Abdelaziz Ed-Dra, Hisham Atan Edinur, David Edvardsson, Kristina Edvardsson, Defi Efendi, Ferry Efendi, Shayan Eghdami, Terje Andreas Eikemo, Ebrahim Eini, Michael Ekholuenetale, Emmanuel Ekpor, Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo, Rabie Adel El Arab, Doaa Abdel Wahab El Morsi, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Iffat Elbarazi, Noha Mousaad Elemam, Frank J Elgar, Islam Y Elgendy, Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary, Hala Rashad Elhabashy, Muhammed Elhadi, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy, Mohammed Elshaer, Ibrahim Elsohaby, Amir Emami Zeydi, Mehdi Emamverdi, Theophilus I Emeto, Luchuo Engelbert Bain, Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar, Tesfahun C Eshetie, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Juan Espinosa-Montero, Kara Estep, Farshid Etaee, Ugochukwu Anthony Eze, Natalia Fabin, Adewale Oluwaseun Fadaka, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Saman Fahimi, Luca Falzone, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris, Mohsen Farjoud Kouhanjani, Andre Faro, Hossein Farrokhpour, Ali Fatehizadeh, Hamed Fattahi, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Pooria Fazeli, Valery L Feigin, Ginenus Fekadu, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Abdullah Hamid Feroze, Daniela Ferrante, Pietro Ferrara, Nuno Ferreira, Getahun Fetensa, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Joanne Flavel, Abraham D Flaxman, Luisa S Flor, Bobirca Teodor Florin, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Kristen Marie Foley, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov, Lisa M Force, Carla Fornari, Behzad Foroutan, Matteo Foschi, Kate Louise Francis, Richard Charles Franklin, Alberto Freitas, Joseph Friedman, Sara D Friedman, Takeshi Fukumoto, John E Fuller, Peter Andras Gaal, Muktar A Gadanya, Santosh Gaihre, Abduzhappar Gaipov, Emmanuela Gakidou, Yaseen Galali, Nasrin Galehdar, Silvano Gallus, Quan Gan, Aravind P Gandhi, Balasankar Ganesan, Jalaj Garg, Shuo-Yan Gau, Prem Gautam, Rupesh K Gautam, Federica Gazzelloni, Miglas W Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Brhane Gebremariam, Urge Gerema, Motuma Erena Getachew, Tamirat Getachew, Peter W Gething, Mansour Ghafourifard, Sulmaz Ghahramani, Khalid Yaser Ghailan, Alireza Ghajar, Mohammad Javad Ghanbarnia, MohammadReza Ghasemi, Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh, Fariba Ghassemi, Ramy Mohamed Ghazy, Sailaja Ghimire, Asadollah Gholamian, Ali Gholamrezanezhad, Pooyan Ghorbani Vajargah, Ghozali Ghozali, Sherief Ghozy, Arun Digambarrao Ghuge, Alessandro Gialluisi, Ruth Margaret Gibson, Artyom Urievich Gil, Paramjit Singh Gill, Tiffany K Gill, Richard F Gillum, Themba G Ginindza, Alem Girmay, James C Glasbey, Elena V Gnedovskaya, Laszlo Göbölös, Amit Goel, Mohamad Goldust, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Arefeh Golestanfar, Davide Golinelli, Philimon N Gona, Houman Goudarzi, Amir Hossein Goudarzian, Anmol Goyal, Scott Greenhalgh, Michal Grivna, Giovanni Guarducci, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Mesay Dechasa Gudeta, Avirup Guha, Stefano Guicciardi, Damitha Asanga Gunawardane, Sasidhar Gunturu, Cui Guo, Anish Kumar Gupta, Bhawna Gupta, Indarchand Ratanlal Gupta, Rajat Das Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vijai Kumar Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Farrokh Habibzadeh, Parham Habibzadeh, Vladimir Hachinski, Mohammad Haddadi, Rasool Haddadi, Nils Haep, Adel Hajj Ali, Esam S Halboub, Sobia Ahsan Halim, Brian J Hall, Sebastian Haller, Rabih Halwani, Randah R Hamadeh, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Samer Hamidi, Mohammad Hamiduzzaman, Ahmad Hammoud, Nasrin Hanifi, Graeme J Hankey, Md Abdul Hannan, Md Nuruzzaman Haque, Harapan Harapan, Josep Maria Haro, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Faizul Hasan, Ikramul Hasan, M Tasdik Hasan, Hamidreza Hasani, Mohammad Hasanian, Ali Hasanpour- Dehkordi, Abbas M Hassan, Amr Hassan, Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam, Soheil Hassanipour, Johannes Haubold, Rasmus J Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Youssef Hbid, Jeffrey J Hebert, Omar E Hegazi, Golnaz Heidari, Mohammad Heidari, Mahsa Heidari-Foroozan, Reza Heidari-Soureshjani, Bartosz Helfer, Claudiu Herteliu, Hamed Hesami, Dineshani Hettiarachchi, Demisu Zenbaba Heyi, Kamal Hezam, Yuta Hiraike, Howard J Hoffman, Ramesh Holla, Nobuyuki Horita, Md Belal Hossain, Md Mahbub Hossain, Sahadat Hossain, Mohammad-Salar Hosseini, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mohamed Hsairi, Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh, Chengxi Hu, Junjie Huang, Md Nazmul Huda, Fernando N Hugo, Michael Hultström, Javid Hussain, Salman Hussain, Nawfal R Hussein, Le Duc Huy, Hong-Han Huynh, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Oluwatope Olaniyi Idowu, Desta Ijo, Kevin S Ikuta, Mehran Ilaghi, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Mustapha Immurana, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Arnaud Iradukunda, Farideh Iravanpour, Kenneth Chukwuemeka Iregbu, Md Rabiul Islam, Mohammad Mainul Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Farhad Islami, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Gaetano Isola, Masao Iwagami, Chidozie C D Iwu, Chinwe Juliana Iwu-Jaja, Mahalaxmi Iyer, Linda Merin J, Jalil Jaafari, Louis Jacob, Kathryn H Jacobsen, Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh, Morteza Jafarinia, Khushleen Jaggi, Kasra Jahankhani, Nader Jahanmehr, Haitham Jahrami, Akhil Jain, Nityanand Jain, Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Reza Jalilzadeh Yengejeh, Elham Jamshidi, Chinmay T Jani, Mark M Janko, Abubakar Ibrahim Jatau, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Shubha Jayaram, Jayakumar Jeganathan, Alelign Tasew Jema, Digisie Mequanint Jemere, Wonjeong Jeong, Anil K Jha, Ravi Prakash Jha, John S Ji, Heng Jiang, Yingzhao Jin, Yinzi Jin, Olatunji Johnson, Nabi Jomehzadeh, Darwin Phan Jones, Tamas Joo, Abel Joseph, Nitin Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Billingsley Kaambwa, Ali Kabir, Hannaneh Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Vidya Kadashetti, Farima Kahe, Pradnya Vishal Kakodkar, Rizwan Kalani, Leila R Kalankesh, Feroze Kaliyadan, Sanjay Kalra, Ashwin Kamath, Arun Kamireddy, Thanigaivelan Kanagasabai, Himal Kandel, Edmund Wedam Kanmiki, Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi, Rami S Kantar, Neeti Kapoor, Mehrdad Karajizadeh, Behzad Karami Matin, Shama D Karanth, Ibraheem M Karaye, Asima Karim, Hanie Karimi, Salah Eddin Karimi, Arman Karimi Behnagh, Samad Karkhah, Ajit K Karna, Faizan Zaffar Kashoo, Hengameh Kasraei, Nigussie Assefa Kassaw, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Molly B Kassel, Adarsh Katamreddy, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Patrick DMC Katoto, Joonas H Kauppila, Navjot Kaur, Neda Kaydi, Jeanne Françoise Kayibanda, Gbenga A Kayode, Foad Kazemi, Sina Kazemian, Sara Kazeminia, Leila Keikavoosi-Arani, Cathleen Keller, John H Kempen, Jessica A Kerr, Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot, Mohammad Keykhaei, Mohamad Mehdi Khadembashiri, Mohammad Amin Khadembashiri, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Himanshu Khajuria, Mohammad Khalafi, Amirmohammad Khalaji, Nauman Khalid, Ibrahim A Khalil, Faham Khamesipour, Asaduzzaman Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Ikramullah Khan, Imteyaz A Khan, Maseer Khan, Moien AB Khan, Taimoor Khan, Mahammed Ziauddin Khan suheb, Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi, Khaled Khatab, Fatemeh Khatami, Armin Khavandegar, Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani, Khalid A Kheirallah, Feriha Fatima Khidri, Elaheh Khodadoust, Moein Khormali, Mahmood Khosrowjerdi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Helda Khusun, Zemene Demelash Kifle, Grace Kim, Jihee Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Kasey E Kinzel, Girmay Tsegay Kiross, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Juniper Boroka Kiss, Mika Kivimäki, Desmond Klu, Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Farzad Kompani, Gerbrand Koren, Soewarta Kosen, Karel Kostev, Ashwin Laxmikant Kotnis, Parvaiz A Koul, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ai Koyanagi, Michael A Kravchenko, Kewal Krishan, Hare Krishna, Vijay Krishnamoorthy, Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy, Kris J Krohn, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Connor M Kubeisy, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Md Abdul Kuddus, Mohammed Kuddus, Ilari Kuitunen, Omar Kujan, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Vishnutheertha Kulkarni, Ashish Kumar, Harish Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Rahul Kumar, Shiv Kumar, Madhulata Kumari, Almagul Kurmanova, Om P Kurmi, Asep Kusnali, Dian Kusuma, Tezer Kutluk, Ambily Kuttikkattu, Evans F Kyei, Ilias Kyriopoulos, Carlo La Vecchia, Muhammad Awwal Ladan, Lucie Laflamme, Chandrakant Lahariya, Abdelilah Lahmar, Daphne Teck Ching Lai, Tri Laksono, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Judit Lám, Demetris Lamnisos, Tuo Lan, Francesco Lanfranchi, Berthold Langguth, Van Charles Lansingh, Ariane Laplante-Lévesque, Bagher Larijani, Anders O Larsson, Savita Lasrado, Kamaluddin Latief, Mahrukh Latif, Kaveh Latifinaibin, Paolo Lauriola, Long Khanh Dao Le, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Thao Thi Thu Le, Trang Diep Thanh Le, Munjae Lee, Paul H Lee, Sang-woong Lee, Seung Won Lee, Wei-Chen Lee, Yo Han Lee, Samson Mideksa Legesse, James Leigh, Jacopo Lenzi, Elvynna Leong, Temesgen L Lerango, Ming-Chieh Li, Wei Li, Xiaopan Li, Yichong Li, Zhihui Li, Massimo Libra, Virendra S Ligade, Andrew Tiyamike Makhiringa Likaka, Lee-Ling Lim, Ro-Ting Lin, Shuzhi Lin, Vasileios-Arsenios Lioutas, Stefan Listl, Jue Liu, Simin Liu, Xiaofeng Liu, Katherine M Livingstone, Erand Llanaj, Chun-Han Lo, Arianna Maever Loreche, László Lorenzovici, Mojgan Lotfi, Masoud Lotfizadeh, Rafael Lozano, Jailos Lubinda, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Alessandra Lugo, Raimundas Lunevicius, Jianing Ma, Stefan Ma, Zheng Feei Ma, Mahmoud Mabrok, Nikolaos Machairas, Monika Machoy, Christian Madsen, Javier A Magaña Gómez, Azzam A Maghazachi, Sandeep B Maharaj, Preeti Maharjan, Soleiman Mahjoub, Mansour Adam Mahmoud, Elham Mahmoudi, Morteza Mahmoudi, Omar Mohamed Makram, Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Reza Malekzadeh, Armaan K Malhotra, Kashish Malho
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Adsorção de crómio (VI) e mercúrio (II) em solução utilizando hiácito (Eichhornia crassipes)
No full textThe existence of water hyacinth proliferation in wetlands of the Canal del Dique (Department of Bolívar, Colombia) causes environmental problems because there is no final disposal of these. Therefore, it is necessary to study alternatives for its use. The objective of the study was to evaluate the behavior of the aquatic hyacinth as an adsorbent of Cr (VI) (VI) and Hg (II) (II) in a synthetically prepared solution. The lignocellulosic material was dried at 80°C for 24 h to remove moisture; then crushed and sieved with meshes of different particle sizes; characterized by elemental analysis to check for the presence of cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin, as well as by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometry to verify the existence of functional groups responsible for the adsorption process. It was found that the best particle size was 1 mm, with a removal percentage of 73,4 and 79,3% for Cr (VI) and Hg (II), respectively. When establishing the adsorption kinetics, it was verified that the elimination percentage increases with time up to 5,5 h of contact with the Hg (II) solution and 3,8 h with the Cr (VI) solution.La existencia de proliferación de Jacinto acuático en los humedales del Canal del Dique (Bolívar-Colombia) causa problemas ambientales por no existir una disposición final de estos. Por lo tanto, es necesario estudiar alternativas para su uso. El objetivo del estudio fue evaluar el comportamiento del Jacinto acuático como adsorbente de cromo (VI) y mercurio (II) en una solución preparada sintéticamente. El material lignocelulósico se secó a 80°C durante 24 h para eliminar la humedad; luego se trituró y tamizó con mallas de diferentes tamaños de partículas; se caracterizó mediante análisis elementales para comprobar la presencia de celulosa, hemicelulosa y lignina, así como mediante espectrometría de infrarrojos por transformada de Fourier para verificar la existencia de grupos funcionales responsables del proceso de adsorción. Se encontró que el mejor tamaño de partícula era de 1 mm, con un porcentaje de remoción de 73,4 y 79,3% para el cromo y el mercurio, respectivamente. Al establecer la cinética de adsorción se comprobó que el porcentaje de eliminación aumenta con el tiempo hasta 5,5 h de contacto con la solución de mercurio y 3,8 h con la solución de cromo.A existência de proliferação de jacintos de água nas zonas húmidas do Canal del Dique (Bolívar) causa problemas ambientais porque não há disposição final dos mesmos. Portanto, é necessário estudar alternativas para o seu uso. O objetivo do estudo foi avaliar o comportamento do jacinto aquático como adsorvente de cromo (VI) e mercúrio (II) em uma solução sinteticamente preparada. O material lignocelulósico foi seco a 80°C durante 24 h para remover a humidade; depois triturado e peneirado com malhas de diferentes tamanhos de partículas; caracterizado pela análise elementar para verificar a presença de celulose, hemicelulose e lignina, bem como pela Espectrometria de Infravermelhos por Transformada de Fourier para verificar a existência de grupos funcionais responsáveis pelo processo de adsorção. Verificou-se que o melhor tamanho de partícula era de 1 mm, com uma percentagem de remoção de 73,4 e 79,3% para o crómio e o mercúrio, respectivamente. Ao estabelecer a cinética de adsorção verificou-se que a percentagem de eliminação aumenta com o tempo até 5,5 h de contacto com a solução de mercúrio e 3,8 h com a solução de crómio
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic
