12 research outputs found
Model output used in the manuscript "Micro and macro parametric uncertainty in climate change prediction: a large ensemble perspective"
No full textThis *.zip file contains the model output from ensemble simulations for the Lorenz 84-Stommel 61 model (hereafter L84-S61; Van Veen et al, 2001; Daron and Stainforth, 2013). To run these simulations, we used the E-forth ensemble generator (de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth, in preparation), which is a MATLAB toolbox that allows for large ensembles of low-dimensional dynamical systems to be run and studied in a systematic way (de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth, 2023). These model outputs are presented and discussed in the Preprint "Micro and macro parametric uncertainty in climate change prediction: a large ensemble perspective". The manuscript describes the experiments performed, the parameter values used and the modifications done to the original L84-S61 model. For this matter, we also refer you to Daron and Stainforth (2013) and de Melo Viríssimo et al. (2024). All files uploaded were generated from simulations run by the lead author. For specific information about each file uploaded, please refer to the README file. The details of each experiment are also presented in the supplementary materials of the preprint above. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.
References: Van Veen et al. (2001): https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2001.00241.x Daron and Stainforth (2013): https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034021 de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth (2023): https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14755 de Melo Viríssimo et al. (2024): https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0180870 de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth (in preparation): to appea
The works of Richard Brinsley Sheridan, dramas, poems, translations, speeches, and unfinished sketches. With a memoir of the author, a collection of ana, and ten chalk drawings.
No full textMode of access: Internet
Proportionality in tax disputes: Lithuanian Court practice
No full textThrough detailed consideration of relevant European Court of Justice and European Court of Human Rights case law, the author examines the principle of proportionality in European Union law and ways in which is is applicable to the settlement of tax law disputes in Lithuania
Facing future climate change: is the past relevant?
No full textFrom a socio-economic perspective, the ‘sharp end’ of climate research is very much about looking forward in time. As far as possible, we need to know what to expect and approximately when to expect it. However, it is argued here that our approach to climate change (including its scientific basis and its policy implications) is firmly linked to our understanding of the past. This is mainly due to the role played by palaeoclimate reconstructions in shaping our expectations of the climate system, in particular via their ability to test the accuracy of our climate models. Importantly, this includes the intuitive models that each of us carries around in our mind, as well as the more complex numerical models hiding inside supercomputers. It is through such models that palaeoclimate insights may affect the scientific and political judgements that we must make in the face of persistent and ultimately irreducible predictive uncertainty. Already we can demonstrate a great deal of confidence in our current understanding of the global climate system based specifically on insights from the geological record. If further advances are to be made effectively, climate models should take advantage of both past and present constraints on their behaviour, and should be given added credence to the extent that they are compatible with an increasingly rich tapestry of past climatic phenomena. Furthermore, palaeoclimate data should be accompanied by clearly defined uncertainties, and organized in arrays that are capable of speaking directly to numerical models, and their limitations in particular
A review of the importance of the Caribbean region in Oligo-Miocene low latitude planktonic foraminiferal biostratigraphy and the implications for modern biogeochronological schemes
Get PDFPlanktonic foraminifera are widely used in marine biostratigraphy thanks to their small size, limited stratigraphic range and abundance in oceanic sediments. The utility of planktonic foraminifera in biostratigraphy was first fully recognised within the Caribbean region during the middle of the 20th century. The area was critical for the subsequent development of the low latitude biostratigraphic schemes and remains fundamental for modern day biogeochronologies. This study presents a historical review of the Oligo-Miocene component of these biostratigraphic schemes, including the first proposed scheme of Cushman and Stainforth (1945) and the subsequent development. The work of Hans Bolli and Walter Blow is particularly highlighted due to their heavy influence on modern day biostratigraphy, including these authors initially recognising the biostratigraphic utility of a number of bioevents still applied today. These Caribbean-centric schemes are correlated to the modern-day low latitude biogeochronology of Wade et al. (2011), with this synthesis highlighting that a number of bioevents (e.g. Top Paragloborotalia kugleri and Top Catapsydrax dissimilis) have been applied consistently since their initial recognition. This in turn allows the recognisability of these bioevents to be deduced based on how consistently applied each datum has been. In addition, the range charts of six studies focusing heavily on the Caribbean have been reassessed to determine whether there is potential to apply a given bioevent, and the original author merely did not recognise the biostratigraphic utility of the species or favoured another bioevent.
In considering this historical review, a number of amendments to Wade et al. (2011) and future priorities to planktonic foraminifera biogeochronologies are suggested. Most notably, the re-introduction of Base Globigerinatella insueta as a primary bioevent due to the historical biostratigraphic importance of this species. This event now defines early Miocene Subzone M3b (Gt. insueta/Ct. dissimilis PRZ) dividing Zone M3 into an upper Subzone M3b (Base Gt. insueta) and lower Subzone M3a (Base Globigerinatella sp.). Finally, the Miocene to Recent timescale of Wade et al. (2011) has been recalibrated following more recent updates to the magnetostratigraphy (Kochhann et al., 2016; Ogg et al., 2016; Drury et al., 2017; Beddow et al., 2018) and cyclostratigraphy (Wilkens et al., 2017). The overall effect on the planktonic foraminifera biogeochronology is minor but our results become the suggested biostratigraphic framework for the low latitudes
Uncertainty in geomorphological responses to climate change
Get PDFThis is the final version. Available on open access from Springer via the DOI in this recordSuccessful adaptation to climate change at regional scales can often depend on understanding the nature of geomorphological responses to climate change at those scales. Here we use evidence from landscapes which are known to be environmentally sensitive to show that geomorphological change in response to shifts in climate can be highly nonlinear. Our study sites are two mountain massifs on the western coast of Ireland. Both sites have similar geological and Pleistocene glacial histories and are similar topographically, geomorphologically and in their climate histories. We show that despite these similarities their response to late Holocene, climate change has differed. Both massifs have responded to short-term climate changes over the last 4500 years that are considered to have been uniform across the region, but these climate changes have resulted in highly differentiated and nonlinear landscape responses. We argue this reflects nonlinearity in the forcing–response processes at such scales and suggests that current approaches to modelling the response of such systems to future climate change using numerical climate models may not accurately capture the landscape response. We end by discussing some of the implications for obtaining decision-relevant predictions of landscape responses to climatic forcing and for climate change adaptation and planning, using regional climate models.Middlesex UniversityCoventry Universit
Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models.
No full textIn complex spatial models, as used to predict the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions, parameter variation within plausible bounds has major effects on model behavior of interest. Here, we present an unprecedentedly large ensemble of >57,000 climate model runs in which 10 parameters, initial conditions, hardware, and software used to run the model all have been varied. We relate information about the model runs to large-scale model behavior (equilibrium sensitivity of global mean temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide). We demonstrate that effects of parameter, hardware, and software variation are detectable, complex, and interacting. However, we find most of the effects of parameter variation are caused by a small subset of parameters. Notably, the entrainment coefficient in clouds is associated with 30% of the variation seen in climate sensitivity, although both low and high values can give high climate sensitivity. We demonstrate that the effect of hardware and software is small relative to the effect of parameter variation and, over the wide range of systems tested, may be treated as equivalent to that caused by changes in initial conditions. We discuss the significance of these results in relation to the design and interpretation of climate modeling experiments and large-scale modeling more generally
