22 research outputs found
GBD 2017 Population and Fertility
No full text© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
No full textPopulation and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
No full textBackground: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
No full text© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
No full textBackground: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95 uncertainty interval UI 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60· ) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens
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REPUBLICAN TICKET.
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Far Metric! Attorney,
A. tl, JAHMAN,
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Por Sharif*,
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For Aadllor,
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Fur BeeotdaT,
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HENRY BECKER.
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BLACK.
For Justice ol tb* t-**aos 2
& W. CHARLEU 1
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TOWKH WILL SUCCEED
AMBASSA..-H A. D. WHITE.
Berils, 8*pt tt.---Preside at itnoae*
vslt bas chosaa Charlamagae Tower
asihasssdor to Runts, to sui-fi-ed Andrew a Whit* as Btthaaaador to 0*t*
asaa**. KotlSt-atluna of tbl* d*clslon
aad that Mr. White's letters of r*c*f*
ha* ba*B itsotd by th* stal* daoart*
hwat bars reach so tbs foralga oDt*
It***.
The appointment of Tower had beea
•apt-rtad her* for *evo-al wren*. Mr.
White probablr •■*• -tot bar* bia farewell sadtsBc* wttb tbe etnparor oa
Noraa-hsr T, hla birthday, aa bad b**a
provi slot-ally arrsagBd, baraus* hla
stalest- will leave Berlin November I
lor Kagland. Th* retiring ambasaa-
wot, t***t*-**tr*i*, la sot likely to present
sta letters of recall until shout lb*
Bttddl* of November.
TO COLONIZE PATAGONIA.
Berlin. Sept. U.— Horr M. Ale-natin.
editor of the Artt*ai!alsrhe Tagblatt,
which I* th* principal Onrtnao oswa-
******* Is Argtmtlaa. ba* b**a ael*cted
b) ths Oertnaa com roe. trial I sad era at
Ha**a* Ay fa* as delegate to th* Oar*
raaa t-*4oBtaI e--agf>pta. Herr Aleraaaa
haa writtam views oa Osmisn colonl-a*
ttOS wbkb ar* attracting atte-illun
brrr aad whlrh will become tha sab-
Ject of dlsrussloa at tbe congress.
"Tha Ocmiana." says Harr Alomann.
"sasat go, Brst. wh*r* they caa tetaln
their language aad customs: second.
***** a**ra*B trade will profit by th*
Battler-teat; third, to tbs rounlr-r havlag ths cllstata moat slmllsr to that
Sf Qtar*-*Bv-. All lha** condltloBS are
falsi I**! la Patagonia, which BBS threefold tb* are* of Oensany ssd oaly
l*uo European Inhabitant* Ths la*
tU*B* at* djlag out sad Oermaa* go-
lag there raa renisin n*r-nans."
SPAIN PAYS INDEMNITY.
*tVaafalna-tr*B. Bept. It—Tb| trasaury
erparirneril has begun distribution of
tjn.too, the sam racelve-l from tb*
gnrarnment ot Spain as oa* ot tb* au-
aool payment a of ladamalty due uador
the traatj af lilt. The oontlauatloB
of th*** par men it Is regarded aa a
Btarhed •vldeac* of the high a*as* of
h>*-t*or cbetisbrd by ths Spaalsb pat-pis
bt mstrttag aa obligation.
Aboat llll some American aaar-
chant ship* were aeltad an *^.1r*trt>j-e,|
Trey Spanish national vtatsel*. sad whoa
tb* teaUrsr was brought before a trlbn-
sal aa award wsa made la tavor of
th* United Slate* rlllirti* for IB*
aaaooat of ibelr tot-sea. The principal
•raa ronv.-rtf-tl by a cntloua BpBBlab
method lato perptHual i-eatee, aad the
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slare tha treaty ot IKS!
By a ml- of Istai-BBttofial ta* war
-sbvottttely ejctlagutahaa treatise pre*
-t-loosly eilstlBK lift ween the prltirl
pots, bat the Spanish gt-vrmment did
atat r*a~ard lta*lf a* thn* relieve*' by
Ka recent war * lib the t'Bllr** htatea,
aad the oety dta*omlr*ri tn which tb*
scrip hi-l-lff* war* suIij.-.-i.-lI trsa la
S slight drfenueat of two paytn-saU
DYNAMITE USED WITH DISASTROUS RESULTS.
On* ef Ui* Oregon's Crew During th*
6p*-it*h-Amsrlcan War Wficki
Haul ta Satisfy Hi* Van*ia*aca*nd
Than Shoal* Himself.
Wssbla-to-i. Sep*- tt.-Th* Gulden
L*».. eMf**,, ou la* curaar uf New
Jsriry avenue and D street, wsa dynamited yesterday tooralag. It Is alleged, by Frank UcKM, oa* of
gusats, wbo aabaetjuaotly committed
sulcld*. Between twenty sad thirty
guasu war* throw a from tbalr beds
by tba eiplosion, but oaly th* proprietor. Louis Draadt, aod bia wife,
wore Injured, tb* laltor sarloaaiy, Th*
roof of the building waa blown oft
ssd th* iBlllag wreckag* craabad
Ihrouih lo the baso-noiil. lea-lag tb*
structure as If wrecbad by a tornado.
B*T«ry paas of glass la tbs building
aad tha adjoining structure *s* brok-
t-a. Tb* explosion called out tb* Are
dapa-t m*nt.
Taa affair Is involved la soms mys*
t*ry. Th* **roprit*Uir gsT* s baaauat
last atght la buaor of bis wits, wbd
bsd Just rem rood from Oermaay, sad
McKa* trs* a guasL Daring th* even-
tig M.-Ki'.. sad Brandt qiiarreled over
tb* forms*** attention to Mr*. Brandt.
SBd McKs* UiH th* h'*t-l. wltb threats
Of rWTtmga. He returned sboat 4
o'clock BBd Is SBid to bars aiploded
tb* dynamite la tb* room above tbat
occupied by Brandt' aad bis wit*.
Buba*queatly shooting himself la lha
bead.
McKae bad boarded St lb* botel for
yaar*. aad bad been treated sa a
membsr of tb* Brandt f-milly. wblcb
tBctud** a daughter, Bopbl*. sltb
whom Mi-K.-e Is said to bat* been in
lots. Brandt denies, thst there was
say misuBdsraianding between tba
Iwo. IfcKe* rcnaarhed Wednesday
sight thst ha was going to wait until
Buphl* rsturnsd from Oat-many wllh
bar mother, and was tbea Rolng 10 bia
old hum* In Phi lade iph la. Mrs. liisn.lt
and bar dauihter returned about •
o'clock Wednesday nlgbt. The attempt at wholesale murder lullowed
y eater day murntng.
He Kit, wllh b pistol In bis hand,
was seen i.v an *mplt.ye of a lunch -
room oppoati* the hotel Just tiefore the
Shots were Bred. When Iba explosion
t>ccu-T*d a sllgbt blste tprung from
Ihe dtbria. but It was quickly ailla-
■ulahed by th* firemen. Brandt and
hst wife were r*ascu*d before many
of tbs thirty guest* of the astablial--
m*at bad reached lb* part of lb*
bulldlag ln which ltcKse's room was
loeatetl. M.-Ken. wltb lavoltttr
clutched la hla band, waa found tying on tha floor wtth hla head In a
pool of blood. A bullet hole near tb*
right «ar bsd caused Instant death.
RraBdl wsa hrulaed shout Ihe body
aad badly shahen up sad received a
ssvsr* cut oa lb* laft leg- Mrs
Brandt sustained brula** about tb..
body snd s cut baad.
When tb* nrrecksd building was
B*arrb*d enough dynamite was found
la M.Keea truah to blow np a block
of buildings. Tber* wsr* tit *bol*
sticks BBd pert* nf two or three broken stick*, tisgethsr wllh s hoi of caps
and s quantity of wire for long dla
tans* e~ploalOB. H* bsd Bt least nine
sticks of dynamtt* ia bta fioaaaasloB.
IfcKee was about SI y*sr* old. He
was formerly of Philadelphia and bad
relative* In *™alt-*go. Ills l.r.ithi-r.
Harry McKs*. wss hilled In ('tii.-a-ri,
laat yaar, according tn a telegram
found In the dead man's roam. Mr-
Km wss b mscblnlal In th* ua*y yard
here, bat resigned upon Inheriting upward ot tto Otto about four years ago.
Tbla am,unit be is said to bare lost on
the i*e*cas and bia set ta sr*rr-*dltod by
some to tbla loss. D-Hitrtlvea ar* sow
Investigating tbs caaa.
DEFICIENT VOCABULARY.
Naw York. SepL Is.—Physicians st
Bailevu* hospital and ofllrlals of tha
outdoor poor department a | greatly
mystified over the ronduci of a toi
who was taken to the hospital nn I
bor Day Buffering from malaria. I
has aot snnbea a word slac* arriving
thai*, it was assumed the t*ti.*nt
waa a foreigner sad efforts wer* made
to bit upoa some language he could
understand. Jae after another waa
triad without aucceaa. Fifteen differ
•at t.mgu.-* were turned upon him
without effect. Unsllv the sign ll
guage of Jest mates wss brousht lato
play, bat tha man evidently nnder-
Btood whst wa* being done and merely shrank hla head. Effort* at* bring
made to And Koreans and R-mmmt'it
In th* hope ef setting him to
tbsm, as nearly everything els* has
beea tried Evideetly the man Is
i*****at arrival la the country > ■' bowj aosed
bs got post the Immlgrstloa otbclala is sad order,
a mystety.
JATRIMONIAL AND TURF
AGENCIES ARE RAIDED.
Cblrsgo. Bept Is. PltS mstrlm
al Bgencte* and two "turf
ffr-B" ufScas bate l***n vlslla-d by •*
leUil of detectlvca from Chlai
) N.lll* ufflca. lloth coramlaaloo bu-
-eaua war* looted of tbeir contenia
tad thre* maa ware placed under ar*
c»t. Thre* other meo aad oa* wo-
r.sn fur whom tbs pnllc* bad ws
mats *vad*d arrest. Another woman
Sired her mstrl ovinia] otflc* from bang raided by locking It up and going
iw*y.
OetacUvs C. tL W.-oIdrldge. who
raa la charge of tba raid. b*li*va--
l.-re la a matrimonial aad gambling*
'iniai." roBtrollsd by tbe asms meo,
lad operating many branch** unrtsr
tsrlous name*. Ib some ca.see corpo-
ate osmes bsve been sasumsd. aod
tlcratura Issued slates Ibat the** coo
terns are iBcorporated.
Th* "turf eommlaaloa" ofBces raid
bj war* Uiose of tbe Armatrong ilald
•fa company snd tha ejoaglsaa-Daly
-omnasy. The mstrl muni si Bgenrls*
'laii.-.i wrre th* 11*11 advertising
igency, O. I* Walls, alias O. I* Wet-
Ualty Pabllablai -*omp*By, I-
Tttu Pabllahlng oomptany sad J. 8.
-data.
The literature ot tb* "turf cotaml*
nners" was slmllsr. aad each coa*
tra acruaed th* other of *te*llag Ila
•Ir.iiltr* and feaUmoalala. Th* let
fuuad la the vsrloua oiatrlmonlal
iffli is slao were ao similar as to sog-
|**t s common author, and th* asm*
-holographs of handsome women and
yroaparoua appearing men were fouod
use In tb* aavvrsl BgBBrle*. A mem-
traodum fouod lo one of tb* "turf af-
ahowed tba receipt of from I'S to
HOB dally.
ENGLAND DOES ROT LIKE
THE BOERS'MANIFESTO
I-on dun, Bept. K.—Tb* tons and
*i.litems ot Ih* manifesto of Ibe Boer
isnerata. whlrh waa laauod in the
n of aa sppeal to tb* trivllltao*
Id for contributions to aaelat de.
te liner* and help ID tha educstloa
it Boer cblldreo. have earlied tbe ut-
i-SBtSBttneot of the whole llrltlth
i. and tbs dorumant lands to
ili.-nste the sympathy which ha* blth-
trtn beeB felf-for the Ikiera In many
lustier*. It Is regarded s* B maul
Veto of boatlllty to (Ir-aat Britain, and
he work, not of Generals Botha, la*
,v..t and Delaray. bat of Dr. t-tyds. lb*
Curoptean representatlt* of the Hoars,
mil Mr. Knltt. farmiT state serretBry
tb* Trsnstasl ani.thi-r blunder,
ablrh tb* lb-era will lira to ->grrl
ib statement contained in tbs
-aaalieato tbat Sn.000 houaea have
■fen burned Is declared to b* a an.**
itasgeratlon. and complaint Is mad*
.bat. while Ihe document prr**enta ih*.
•a.e agaln.i Ureal Britain In Ibe worst
Xtsslltle llghl. It diatetinestly Ignores
he fart that th* Uriti.h gnvernmen'
las pmmtsed to advance leans free of
nt at lor two years, tn enable th*
liwr* to agslo Bettl-i on the farms It
a pointed ont Ibat. even tt Ihr itoers'
allmata of .*" * farm, destroyed. I*
■oTi.-l the tl> """■ "•" run'- 1 under
he i» see terms will ■!** each family
l.'.t"' The Ides tbst the apprat Is
ik.-lv fo result In getting anything
ike IK' •"* Is bb ridiculous as tt
* prnnostaroaa.
The RtantlBrd rrmtenils thst a
'rii-r nt- anneal an the .-..i---.-.1!-- of
'.he »rlll*h t-.-.i|.le won!,) be mure prv
lititin. Ihan Burh an angry appeal to
Referrlne lo Henry Phivpa* tffft >o
(be poet* the Morning Post ripr*****
he w|ah thst some r*nre*enlailve of
Atnerles ni'i-l t *ie apnolnled to admin-
IStr- Ihe Sift. b*rstl*e ll wriuld be a
toed thine far arrme t*e*ni,n*lh1*
americsn in see fnr htmsetf the nvn-
tlll-n* nf the new roli-filr* sad Ih*
tre.it efforts being msde hr ofllcltl
tnd tinofflrlsl ro*i*-r*s*BtBtlv** "f Orwat
HrilB'n tn allevlste tb* hards-ill** of
lb* Boer women and ehlld-en
In an edllnrlal article the Tlmr*
tays- "It Is fr-rtunat* that the cur-
-e.--.,.. l,-n, ■■ ccneerolng Mr. Pbltit***
BMin'feent el ft ""pa*** Slmulttienus
ly -.lib ih* II.*.-- an-teal hatCBIIi- <.»B-
*ral Ibitha'a rery dlrelfled anrt evirri**-t
rt>|ler seceptlng Mr phlnc*" r|tt *n*v
nil.-, a neceese*y fi.rr.. live to the In
flsmrr-Bliiry s-iriesl ar.rl r-e-n-ivi-* Ih*
tuselrlon that Ibe Ibwr generata ar*
.ve'ee use.1 rt-Bat-lcllali i.r tinc.n
-clciisiy to et-rrv not an InsMlon* de
tie* fo •le'.'i-ni'ne British power 'r.
ftoiith Atrtca."
TO INVBtTtOATtr BAID ON TfAIN
B-irkeley. Bept. It.—In sll proba-
Bltlty lb* nulrome of the raid upon B
btcsl train last night will prove mot*
serious that any of tbe patlrltwinl* In
Ibe affair roa lem plated. Vlgoroua
pnsseculloa Is promised by tbe rail,
road company. whlrh no* has Ibl
chief detectlre* detailed upon the
work of gathering evidence, and Ibe
santlmant here Is almost unitedly op-
icb offense* against taw
KANSAS CITY ELEVATOR
FALLS THREE BTONIEB.
i a I SrtraBtoB. Pa- Sept. St.—Charles M.
Kansas Ctty, BepC ;*■-An alevatoriDe le-mti. bookkeeper of the Bctaato*
at tbe Emety-Blrd-Thayer Dry Ottodaialaa ne.H-|-r obtained a pt-ellmta-
company. carrying twenty Bte youogiary Itijunctloa from Judge K****t*otB*t
worn** *mpkiy*a. fell thre* tt,,ri»s at reatrsinlng bb daughter. Helca D*
Btaoa yeaterday. A doaoa girls *rr* 1-oiig from marrylog Da Will Tewks-
mui** or less seriously injured, but II hurr. a dry iroods clerk.
la bellsred aoaa will dla. sieveral . D* I-oag asserts that bis daughter
tsMsed BBd for a time It was believed! Is under SI i its of age. and has not
that many bad been hilled. j obtained bl* rtinsenl to Ihe pt-it-s-scd
*> Th* elevator Is used fnr freight, but! BMtn-laa*. Th* arguments im th*'
at th* time of Ib* scrldenl the girls' quart tn* wbether or not the Injunr-
war* betag carried tu Ihe top fio-.r for. Hon ahali b* continued will be mad*
laacbaon. It ws* *o*d*d to tb* llmii ou TutB*-***y. September id-
Bargains In
Improved
Property
fin*. S roota bullae Ib splstadld
e
order, large room*, sunny
corner. l.»t lut'ii-.'.. t oat
■!■-■' Owner - -I-- - to gn
*
a*ay. A snap for wt-'-W
H room*, nice- modern In,.--.
r
coira). nice oeighborhoo.1.
i
TbU b a good .in, aiu.i-ui
5
trargalu, •*'■»*).
& room ootlage. olnae ln. Tbla
1* s ale* modern cvittage. a
good borne for liLe-elnea* *b*b
and b good ln>»>me prupoai.
thin. S-UOO
*
Nice small collage.all maaiern
Improvea-ents, floe high lot
60x200, «lth i Improve-
ti..-nI*. fruit ir.-f-a. *brub-
ln-rv, BpteBdlit eipajeurv-,
•i:tx>,
T r.-iui linuae, alee grounda,
vary central. Till* house la
modern ihroughoul, .■!•■■-
in.* li-.-l.u-el aod wlih all.■.,!,-
fi-n).-iiiew. Will it.01 ami pay
12 to I."i pcrt-tiDl. SITGO
Largo 11 room bouae ot-cunv-
log fjiiarler uf til.aik Jto
eiuegian waa *|.ai.-.! lo make
thb b >|,|. n.ilii borne. Must
tr* b*«b lo be -i'l'i. --*t--l
fsWtW.
fi room coiiagw near Wavariy
■ t . in uerteet oondliloa,
modern IbruugbouLltgrBles
and tBatnlals, splendid luca-
tloa aad aapoeur-). ThU U
a spleadld liiv.-eluieni ur
On the campus we bare a
•(ileiidid large bbiiaa, .mi-
able for larga family or .-lul.
Kalbtaclory term* as to
land Iwaae aaaured lo pur-
ohaaar. »«W0.
B. F. HALL I
Real Estate and
•Insurance Broker
1SI I i,...-,-.it .i- , Palo Alt
♦-.+**♦♦***
JOKING AND DRINKING
FOLLOWED BV DEATH
listens. Mont.. Bept. 3*.—John aa
Davb was shot and killed by William
Nnrvel at HlBsdale. The m*o hat,
been drinking nod from Joking ar, .-
th* i|usn. 1 Roth mea palled gun.
rvel shot twice, oae of the bullets
'ertag th* Jugular vala. Dsvl*
gun was round cocked sn.l uii.ti ■
charged, having falltad lo so off **..,-
v«! mouotrd a borne sad rode off hut
sabssquentlv returaad.
NOTICE
Inviting Sealed Pro-
sals.
Street VVoik on Forust Ave,
fmeeill 1., tl.t-leta-.t te, rtknlallSS *t tbl
*ar*at Trwaarta ul Uk Tews ..' I**l>* Bile
•.1.1,,1-tl |rs**-B, its*, dirrrilss isia aaitt*
ataStiaigae* lavits* an J will isssive at
t-asMla lb* ■****< r*su All*, aa te hi
. t*. .1.-..S a,.,.|l,«g I.' tS» e|...'l*t .I.J.1 li
i*a.al -Jilstit-ta - - :■.- Bar** *ad -vtwer-rl
■ ■ba. Iks I tit BB-I*e tie. itn.iui ilfaiJ ,
Tbe ****twtesa nt a ess*-*al *ld**aia Ss*
•1 aid* aad tarw* lasBt* .i*-|.. **al *****
sir* IM** 1*1*** Bf iwslis ls*a**a ■ ilk B**l
c-a.li laid, aad *s*epi a. le rart-ia*
tare tv-fitiTl. ntrt* ar- alcaj, !*I4:
Itb Ihf |>l*a. -" 1 eL.e, .' . .1
it. .■»-,.«■ ihr -i.tt.rf IB* Tewa el I****
11*.
Utatdwrw *a*.t SM .iiartf-a p-ua*s*l tar bid a
•at* l**r Bl.ie Hi Ike Of-lae- of IB* l*eeslj-al at
SataasSM Tr*al***olaal*T»i
|Btd Bf IS* Mtlu-f Bait t>I I
aala Cl.rs f..>n CB1..
il.tk af IkatiHiel I'Sr. SIM
(torn Huction
Of High Class Furniture. Carpets, Lace
Curtains, Rugs, Etc. Etc.
Pattosiens
Si.,re rt.K-k--ii full of Hnglii. Near. Modern Kur-
nltur*, incliitllog Parlor Kunnlur*, Brtlrooert
Huiu, U-jhol.ter/ Uoratia, Laos Curtains, Car-
Cats, Kugs, etc., in fsdl, «rerythin*{ in
House Furnishing Goods
Valuoil at shout e^VOOt). must b* sold under th*
I utii.-r at i.nre Underlie* pressin** dentsnd
C RE DITDR5
It ha* been drier mi noti hy the natr Board of Dl-
reetors ol the Patto*i*n (*-o. to close enlircljr and
st once tli* new Palu Alto Stata. It haa baeti
decided that sll Ihe energy and capital of this
csKH-.any Din-I be retiiralireti in th* on* Sin
Kranciaco house, and tbe only way to oonvrrl
this large and well reelwtad stock into rash im-
ni.-liat.-h is l,y iDeaiis of Auction
YOUR OWn PRICE
la what we are ordered to accept tor everj stick
and tbi-sad in the astablishnient. Much a chance
comes once in * lit* time
Sale Commences Monday,
Sept. 29,
At t) o'clock, closing again at 13* Open-
* ingagain at 2 p. m., rlosingal t; p. in..
ancf the same every day until the stock
is gone. • TERMS CASH
PATTOSIEN CO.
,aa-ja4-aa6 UNIVERSITY AVENUE
Palo Alto. Cal.
•aim* eearaU* Bl TsresBS. WaaB l-nn. i-.al l)S(S, .lie, t.-al,l„raia . St, B. P
TACDMA MILL CO.
REDWOOD C1TT PALO ALTO
Uaaafaenarvv aad laraltr* ta rte* aa* Bt-dsr*|
LUMBER. SHINGLES, POSTS, ETC.
EDWIN B. -OX. MANA6BW OMw: waa. Fare. aCa,w, eef,
Palo Alto Dairy r-a..-,.,.,.,
I 11 ■)...',, r, .t.aaaa.l M ilk I-tl.rfffl l„ aa, addrna
Milk and Cream Depot
4*M t l.ireoti* Bt, lid. i.yMen'1-td t'-etrrrjuy .in,
I.lllr,.,l.ti|.„„(l„1««1,,. , a f.l-.| I,
ba* at ear Uat*-fuss dwt wagow 'a, I. til) lit.
Coal, Wood
F. L Worrell
May, Grain
*- Phono Ssd SOB
rtThin* Ice Cream Sandwiches umphreys
* row 10 CENTS
A Beautiful' Home
' Near Pair Oeka -*Uu,.ii. 1 mile* frota
Slaalorti 1 lutrrtilj, ** Balk* frota I'al.i
Alio, About 5acres lau.i. fatghlj lr*-
prored: lawoa, trull orcaartl, etc.
itm-t. iv-t Can Outbouseaaa-l "*aaj*.
irj houatcw. Mala bouse ol
subeUuUaBlli l.ullt, all
[irtitetiieriU. l'ri.v lli'.itt'
tfor Sal,, by
John F* Byxbee
fALO ALTO Saais Clara ;*.
• **-*.'**-'^**--*--a.-fa.--a.-aa*a*a*iat.-^
: i
SIMK1NS j
Has Moved
His
STORE i
a -***- -*** *. "». ** ***
To the New
Three-Story
BRICK
.
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
No full textBackground:
Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.
Methods:
We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.
Findings:
From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.
Interpretation:
Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress
Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
No full textThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers
Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
No full textBackground:
Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.
Methods:
The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.
Findings:
At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.
Interpretation:
Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade
Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
No full textBackground Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of
social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries,
and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key
indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational
locations from 1950 to 2019.
Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other
sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR)
was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to
age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific
fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult
mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured
as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling
histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5
and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed agespecific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality
generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other
sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of
net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort
component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and
747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of
increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration
rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and
standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process,
including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.
Findings The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in
2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million
(133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and
territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of
replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted
for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI
66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million
(49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000
to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to
7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population
declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased
from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and
territories between 2000 and 2019.
Interpretation Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing,
with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such
as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries
have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more
populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of
new patterns will be essential for global health monitoringWang, Haidongalcalde rabanal, jacqueline elizabeth-will be generated-orcid-0000-0002-9172-2302-600Antonio, Carl Abelardo-will be generated-orcid-0000-0001-7476-0553-600Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson-will be generated-orcid-0000-0001-9458-864X-600Amini-Rarani, MostafaAndrei, Catalina Liliana-will be generated-orcid-0000-0003-4990-0205-600Babaee, Ebrahim-will be generated-orcid-0000-0001-7969-9122-600Barker-Collo, LynBisignano, CatherineNikolaevich Briko, AndreyDahlawi, Saad-will be generated-orcid-0000-0001-6178-9306-600Daryani, Ahmad-will be generated-orcid-0000-0001-8571-5803-600Gallus, Silvano-will be generated-orcid-0000-0002-8967-0400-600Gitimoghaddam, MojganHassankhani, HadiHouseh, Mowafa-will be generated-orcid-0000-0002-3648-6271-600kamiab, zahra-will be generated-orcid-0000-0001-6670-1828-600Khazaei, Salman-will be generated-orcid-0000-0001-5918-2310-600Kosen, Soewarta-will be generated-orcid-0000-0002-2517-8118-600Linn, ShaiMahasha, Phetole-will be generated-orcid-0000-0002-5750-3595-600Moghadaszadeh Ahrabi, Masoud-will be generated-orcid-0000-0002-3946-0325-600Mohammadpourhodki, Reza-will be generated-orcid-0000-0001-5677-0133-600Samad, Zainab-will be generated-orcid-0000-0003-2422-3199-600Santric Milicevic, Milena-will be generated-orcid-0000-0002-0684-359X-600Shaheen, Amira ASharma, RajeshTopouzis, Fotis-will be generated-orcid-0000-0002-8966-537X-600Unnikrishnan, BhaskaranValli, Alessandro-will be generated-orcid-0000-0003-2547-3181-600Wiangkham, Taweewat-will be generated-orcid-0000-0003-4115-704X-600Yoon, Seok-Junyusefzadeh, hasan-will be generated-orcid-0000-0001-9919-0235-600Ziapour, Aras
