273 research outputs found
Evaluation of flood damage caused by rising sea levels
No full textNeizogibno in pospešeno dvigovanje morske gladine zaradi podnebnih sprememb ogroža številna obalna mesta po svetu z različnimi obalnimi nevarnostmi, ki vključujejo vse pogostejše in intenzivnejše poplavljanje morja. Zgodovinsko središče mesta Piran v Sloveniji se bo zaradi specifične topografije obale in visoke koncentracije družbeno-ekonomskih dejavnosti in kulturnih vrednot soočalo s precejšnjim povečanjem poplavnega tveganja zaradi dviga morske gladine. Doslej še ni bila izvedena raziskava, ki bi preučila vpliv povečane pogostosti obalnih poplav in ekstremnih poplavnih dogodkov v mestu Piran. V naši raziskavi je bil preučen vpliv spremenjene pojavnosti poplav morja kot posledice dviga morske gladine ter ocenjena ekonomska škoda obalnih poplav na lokalni ravni glede na različno obseg scenarijev dviga gladine morja.
Vpliv prihodnjega pričakovanega dviga morske gladine na pojavnost ekstremnih nivojev gladine morja je bil raziskan tako, da smo izvedli statistično analizo pojavnosti nivojev morske gladine z uporabo Gumblove porazdelitve. Ob tako statistično izvrednotenih gladinah smo upoštevali še dodatne dvige morske gladine z upoštevanjem različnih podnebnih scenarijev. Z uporabo digitalnega modela višin, pridobljenega na osnovi LiDAR snemanja obalnega območja, so bili izvrednoteni nivoji gladin morja nadalje upoštevani pri določitvi poplavnih območij z uporabo modela poplavljanja morja, ki deluje v rastrskem okolju geografskega informacijskega sistema (GIS). Ocena izpostavljenosti prebivalstva in sektorskih gospodarskih elementov znotraj mesta Piran je bila izvedena s prekrivanjem hidrološko povezanih poplavnih površin z različnimi nabori prostorskih podatkov. Obsegi poplavljanja in porazdelitev globine vode na poplavnih območjih so bili uporabljeni kot vhodni podatki v model KRPAN (Vidmar et al., 2019) za oceno poplavne škode za različne scenarije dviga morske gladine. Ocene škode izvrednotene z upoštevanjem 6 različnih povratnih dob poplav morja, so bile uporabljene za izdelavo verjetnostnih škodnih krivulj, na osnovi le-teh pa smo nadalje preračunali skupno pričakovano letno škodo zaradi poplav ob upoštevanju različnih scenarijev dviga morske gladine.
Rezultati študije so pokazali, da so se intervali pojavljanja sedanjih ekstremnih visokovodnih dogodkov na slovenski obali drastično skrajšali in sicer za približno faktor 2 na vsakih 10 cm dviga morske gladine. Na osnovi izračunov lahko predvidevamo, da bodo trenutni nizkofrekvenčni dogodki s povratnimi dobami od 100 do 1000 let doseženi s skoraj normalnim ciklom plime v primeru, da bo dvig morske gladine sledil dvema kritičnima scenarijema dviga gladine za 0,84 m oz. 1,46 m. Povečanje pogostosti nastopa ekstremnih poplavnih dogodkov bo zelo očitno, 30 cm dvig morske gladine do leta 2100 bo povzročil, da bodo že pri pogostih poplavnih dogodkih poplavljeni celotni nižje ležeče predeli mesta Piran. Poplave morja bodo po naših ocenah prizadela 38% stavb v ožjem starem mestnem jedru in večino lokacij kulturne dediščine, hkrati pa bo v najverjetnejšo izselitev prisiljen 47% delež celotnega prebivalstva na območju, v primeru upoštevanja najbolj kritičnih scenarijev dviga gladine se posledice še dodatno stopnjujejo. Pričakovana letna škoda povezana s to stopnjo dviga morske gladine je približno 2,4 milijona evrov na leto, 65% te škode pa je vezano na stanovanjske zgradbe in gospodarske dejavnosti. Pričakovana letna škoda dramatično naraste na 10,2 milijona evrov na leto v primeru upoštevanja najbolj kritičnih scenarijev dviga morske gladine, kar predstavlja izjemno veliko povečanje izhodiščnih stroškov s sedanje ocene 0,68 milijona evrov na leto. Rezultati jasno kažejo, da bo gospodarski učinek dviga morske gladine na območju starega mestnega jedra Pirana izjemno velik in da se bo glede na lastnosti stanovanjskih nepremičnin in kulturne dediščine lokalna skupnost morala soočiti z velikimi posledicami naraščajoče gladine morja v prihodnosti. Poplavne škode v takšnem obsegu bodo v prihodnosti prav gotovo postale nesprejemljive ter bodo povzročile številne dodatne skrbi ministrstvom, lokalni skupnosti ter družbi v najširšem pomenu, kar jasno kaže na bistveno vlogo in pomen načrtovanja ter izvajanja dolgoročnih protipoplavnih ukrepov.The inexorability of climate change-driven accelerated sea level rise (SLR) poses consequential threats to the majority of the coastal cities around the world through a range of coastal hazards which include more frequent and intense sea flooding. The historic center of the city of Piran in Slovenia is predicted to face a considerable increase in flood risk and consequences of rising sea levels due to its specific topographical coastal relief and high concentration of socio-economic activities and cultural value. However, no existing study explores the impacts of SLR on the recurring coastal flood hazards and extreme sea level events in Piran. This research investigates the return period variation of sea level extremes and evaluates the economic costs of coastal flood damage at the local level according to the varying magnitude of SLR scenarios.
The impact of future SLR on the return period of extreme sea levels was investigated by superposing an array of SLR scenarios onto the Gumbel-fitted current extreme sea levels data. Along with the digital elevation model derived from LiDAR scanning, these scenario-based water levels were translated into a spatial extension of coastal floods using a bathtub inundation model operated in a geographic information system (GIS) raster environment. Exposure assessment of population and sectoral economic elements in Piran was performed by overlaying the hydrologically connected flood surface areas with various geospatial datasets. The extent of inundation and water depth distribution were used as inputs to the KRPAN model (Vidmar et al., 2019) to estimate the economic costs of flood damage for different inundation scenarios. The damage estimates based on six return periods were utilized to construct damage-probability curves and calculate the total expected annual flood damage (EAD) caused by the varying magnitudes of SLR.
The results of the study revealed that the recurrence intervals of the present-day extreme sea level events in the coast of Slovenia have drastically shortened by about a factor of 2 for every 10 cm of SLR. The current low-frequency events with a return period of 100- to 1000-year is projected to be exceeded by almost normal high tide cycle if the increments in sea level follow the two high-end SLR scenarios of 0.84 m and 1.46 m which suggest a higher frequency of extreme sea level in the future. The amplification of the sea level extremes frequency is highly evident, a 30 cm SLR in 2100 will trigger the low probability events to inundate the entire low-lying parts of the city. The inundation will affect 38% of the buildings in the narrow old city center and the majority of cultural heritage sites while causing displacement of 47% of the total inhabitants in the area which further escalates tremendously with higher increments of SLR. Consequently, the EAD associated with this level of SLR is about 2.4 million euros per year and 65% of this damage is borne from residential buildings and household contents. The EAD dramatically escalates to 10.2 million euros per year under a high-impact SLR scenario from a baseline cost of 0.68 million euros per year. The study clearly shows that the economic impact of SLR in the old town of Piran is expected to become costly and in view of its local character, the residential properties and cultural heritage were demonstrated to face the greatest consequences of rising sea levels in the future. This degree of damages is very unlikely to be tolerated and will cause many additional concerns to the state ministries, municipality, and society in the near future which emphasizes the crucial role of long-term coastal adaptation measures implementation
The sense of a beginning : Bakhtinian dialogic criticism on 'the gospel' in Mark.
No full textContemporary literary approaches have caused paradigm shifts in Biblical Studies in the last two decades as it appears in a great deal of Markan studies using narrative, reader-response, deconstructive, feminist, and new historicist approaches. However, literary studies on the Gospel of Mark have not taken into account theoretical questions underlying those approaches. As a result biblical critics are driven by new trends without ever having a chance to examine the critical baggage of the approaches. Consequently, there is a gap of communication between the old and the new one. Therefore this thesis is an attempt to meet the need of enhancing the quality of critical endeavour in biblical studies. In the light of most recent competing critical theories of literature, the first contribution of this thesis is the methodological finding that Bakhtinian dialogic criticism contains the most profound philosophical and practical foundations for solving some crucial theoretical problems in contemporary literary theories. It is a critique to a Saussurian linguistic system of language which becomes the very foundation of modern and postmodern literary criticism. Bakhtinian literary theory shifts the foundation of literary criticism on linguistic signs into the creative activity of the socio-cultural production of human communication. The shift into socio-cultural reality of language communication makes the notion of 'genre' very important to unlock the problem of text and context in literary studies. Since the Gospel of Mark has fascinated most literary critics in Biblical Studies, the problem of 'genre' of this gospel is chosen as the focus of this study. Secondly, as no agreement is reached as to what 'genre' the Gospel of Mark belongs, this thesis makes its contribution to the discussion by locating the problem of 'genre' of Mark in the context of genre theories and argues that the Bakhtinian suggestion to find genre in the socio-cultural sphere by analysing artistic intercourse between narrative agents in Mark has freed the competing analysis from the unresolved problem between the kerygmatic (content oriented) approach and the analogical (form oriented) approach. To achieve finding 'genre' in the socio-cultural sphere, this thesis focuses on Bakhtinian analysis of the process of artistic intercourse between narrative agents. The narrative communicative interrelationships between narrative agents is constructed in this thesis as a 'stereophonic' Bakhtinian model of dialogic communication. This model is an original contribution of this thesis for revising the traditional two dimensional model of narrative communication. Based on this dialogical model of communication, a special role is given to the Bakhtinian 'author-creator' in the realization process of genre through the interaction of polyphonic voices. Through the interaction of voices of the author-artist and the hero we are led to discover a relatively stable type of portraying and controlling reality in Mark, known as the genre of Roman 'satire'. The closest literary affinity is Satyrica by Petronius. This narrative strategy of 'satire' in Mark has its root in the prophetic discourse of the Old Testament which is saturating the speech of the narrator, John the Immerser, the centurion, the people, and even Jesus. Finally, the whole search for Markan 'genre' culminates in the analysis of the realization of genre through the analysis of Bakhtinian chronotope. The reality of the genre of Mark is its social reality that is in its role as dpxrj/ 'beginning'. As the Gospel of Mark proclaims itself as 'a beginning', it defines its claim of socio-cultural 'authority' in early Christianity. It is this 'sense of beginning' which enables the narrating and the narrated world of Mark to interact dialogically
At limits of life: multidisciplinary insights reveal environmental constraints on biotic diversity in continental Antarctica
No full textData source: Supporting information, http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0044578#s5Multitrophic communities that maintain the functionality of the extreme Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems, while the simplest of any natural community, are still challenging our knowledge about the limits to life on earth. In this study, we describe and interpret the linkage between the diversity of different trophic level communities to the geological morphology and soil geochemistry in the remote Transantarctic Mountains (Darwin Mountains, 80uS). We examined the distribution and diversity of biota (bacteria, cyanobacteria, lichens, algae, invertebrates) with respect to elevation, age of glacial drift sheets, and soil physicochemistry. Results showed an abiotic spatial gradient with respect to the diversity of the organisms across different trophic levels. More complex communities, in terms of trophic level diversity, were related to the weakly developed younger drifts (Hatherton and Britannia) with higher soil C/N ratio and lower total soluble salts content (thus lower conductivity). Our results indicate that an increase of ion concentration from younger to older drift regions drives a succession of complex to more simple communities, in terms of number of trophic levels and diversity within each group of organisms analysed. This study revealed that integrating diversity across multi-trophic levels of biotic communities with abiotic spatial heterogeneity and geological history is fundamental to understand environmental constraints influencing biological distribution in Antarctic soil ecosystems.Catarina Magalhães, Mark I. Stevens, S. Craig Cary, Becky A. Ball, Bryan C. Storey, Diana H. Wall, Roman Tűrk and Ulrike Ruprech
Book Review: Sociopolitical Aspects of Disabilities
No full textAuthor: W. V. Bryan
Reviewer: Mark Sherry
Publisher: Charles H Thomas Publishers, 2002
Paper, ISBN 0-398-07240-X
Cloth, ISBN: 0-398-07239-6
Cost: Paperback - 63.95 US
Incomprehension or resistance? : the Markan disciples and the narrative logic of Mark 4:1—8:30
No full textThe characterization of the Markan disciples has been and continues to be the object of much scholarly reflection and speculation. For many, the Markan author’s presentation of Jesus’ disciples holds a key, if not the key, to unlocking the purpose and function of the gospel as a whole. Commentators differ as to whether the Markan disciples ultimately serve a pedagogical or polemical function, yet they are generally agreed that the disciples in Mark come off rather badly, especially when compared to their literary counterparts in Matthew, Luke, and John.
This narrative-critical study considers the characterization of the Markan disciples within the Sea Crossing movement (Mark 4:1–8:30). While commentators have, on the whole, interpreted the disciples’ negative characterization in this movement in terms of lack of faith and/or incomprehension, neither of these, nor a combination of the two, fully accounts for the severity of language leveled against the disciples by the narrator (6:52) and Jesus (8:17–18). Taking as its starting point an argument by Jeffrey B. Gibson (1986) that the harshness of Jesus’ rebuke in Mark 8:14–21 is occasioned not by the disciples’ lack of faith or incomprehension but by their active resistance to his Gentile mission, this investigation uncovers additional examples of the disciples’ resistance to Gentile mission, offering a better account of their negative portrayal within the Sea Crossing movement and helping explain many of their other failures.
In short, this study argues that in Mark 4:1–8:26, the disciples are characterized as resistant to Jesus’ Gentile mission and to their participation in that mission, the chief consequence being that they are rendered incapable of recognizing Jesus’ vocational identity as Israel’s Messiah (Thesis A). This leads to a secondary thesis, namely, that in Mark 8:27–30, Peter’s recognition of Jesus’ messianic identity indicates that the disciples have finally come to accept Jesus’ Gentile mission and their participation in it (Thesis B).
“Chapter One: Introduction” offers a selective review of scholarly treatments of the Markan disciples, which shows that few scholars attribute resistance, let alone purposeful resistance, to the disciples.
“Chapter Two: The Rhetoric of Repetition” introduces the methodological tools, concepts, and perspectives employed in the study. It includes a section on narrative criticism, which focuses upon the story-as-discoursed and the implied author and reader, and a section on Construction Grammar, a branch of cognitive linguistics founded by Charles Fillmore and further developed by Paul Danove, which focuses upon semantic and narrative frames and case frame analysis.
“Chapter Three: The Sea Crossing Movement, Mark 4:1–8:30” addresses the question of Markan structure and argues that Mark 4:1–8:30 comprises a single, unified, narrative movement, whose action and plot is oriented to the Sea of Galilee and whose most distinctive feature is the network of sea crossings that transport Jesus and his disciples back and forth between Jewish and Gentile geopolitical spaces.
Following William Freedman, “Chapter Four: The Literary Motif” introduces two criteria (frequency and avoidability) for determining objectively what constitutes a literary motif and provides the methodological basis and starting point for the analyses performed in chapters five and six.
“Chapter Five: The Sea Crossing Motif” establishes and then carries out a lengthy narrative analysis of the Sea Crossing motif, which is oriented around Mark’s use of θάλασσα (thalassa) and πλοῖον (ploion), and “Chapter Six: The Loaves Motif” does the same for The Loaves motif, oriented around Mark’s use of ἄρτος (artos).
Finally, “Chapter Seven: The Narrative Logic of the Disciples (In)comprehension” draws together all narrative, linguistic, and exegetical insights of the previous chapters and offers a single coherent reading of the Sea Crossing movement that establishes Theses A and B.
[Rezension zu:] Miriam Havemann: The Subject Rising Against its Author
No full textRezension zu Miriam Havemann: The Subject Rising Against its Author. A Poetics of Rebellion in Bryan Stanley Johnson's Oeuvre. Hildesheim/Zürich/New York (Georg Olms Verlag) 2011 (= ECHO - Literaturwissenschaft im interdisziplinären Dialog, Bd. 13). 427 S.
Mit der Publikation ihrer in der Bochumer Komparatistik eingereichten Dissertation widmet sich Miriam Havemann einem bis vor wenigen Jahren fast in Vergessenheit geratenen britischen Schriftsteller der 1960er und 1970er Jahre, dessen Arbeiten erst mit dem Erscheinen von Jonathan Coes Biographie 'Like a Fiery Elephant: The Story of B.S. Johnson' (2004) und der Wiederauflage vieler seiner Romane neue Beachtung fanden
Investigating the reduction of rainfall intensity beneath an urban deciduous tree canopy
No full textTrees have an indispensable role to play in the hydrological cycle. The process of interception by tree canopies alters the magnitude, pathway, and intensity of rainfall reaching the ground. This study investigates the rainfall intensity-attenuating effects of canopy interception by open-grown birch trees (Betula pendula Roth.) in an urban environment and the influence of atmospheric variables. Rainfall partitioning was measured in a research plot in the city of Ljubljana, Slovenia, from August 2021 to August 2022. Simultaneously, optical disdrometers above and below the birch tree canopy measured microstructures of rainfall and throughfall, from which the intensities were calculated. During the measurement period, the birch tree intercepted on average 25.6 % of gross rainfall, with the interception being twice as high during the leafed season than in the leafless season. Consequently, the total number and volume of drops under the canopy were reduced on average by 16.4 % and 48.7 %, respectively, indicating the interception and fragmentation of raindrops by the canopy. Owing to these processes, the leafed and leafless states of the birch tree canopy attenuate the average intensities of rainfall by 50.2 % and 41.6 %, respectively. Canopy interception also moderates the maximum 10-minute rainfall intensities by 11.6–83.8 % and 13.1–74.2 % during the leafed and leafless periods, respectively. This percentage of reduction in the rainfall intensities below the canopy decreases with rainfall amount and in the absence of foliage. Aside from phenoseasons, we also found that vapor pressure deficit and air temperature were among the atmospheric variables that exert the highest influence on the intensities of throughfall. Furthermore, the regression analysis between the maximum throughfall intensity and peak water level for each rainfall event indicates that the reduction of rainfall intensity by the canopy has a significant effect on runoff peak water level (R = 0.76, p < 0.001)
The size distribution metrics and kinetic energy of raindrops above and below an isolated tree canopy in urban environment
No full textRaindrop impact on bare soils is the initial phase of rainfall-induced soil erosion which is altered under any type of vegetation due to the interactions of rainfall with the canopies. This study examines the drop size distribution (DSD) and kinetic energy (KE) of raindrops above and below the birch tree (Betula pendula Roth.) canopy in a research plot in the city of Ljubljana, Slovenia using a one-year observation of 63 rainfall events and the effect of meteorological variables under moderate continental climate. Simultaneous measurement of the microstructures of open rainfall and throughfall was carried out using an optical disdrometer. The result of our analysis revealed that throughfall DSD showed two distinct major peaks (bimodal) occurring primarily on smaller drop sizes while open rainfall has only one. The cumulative drop number, median drop-volume diameter (D), and drop fall velocity of throughfall were 16.4%, 26.6%, and 5.0% lower than those of open rainfall, respectively. Also, the relative volume percentage of raindrops > 1.5 mm is 1.5 times higher than those observed in throughfall drops which indicates that the presence of the canopy caused the fractionation of larger drops into smaller droplets. These reductions significantly differ depending on the phenoseasons of the canopy with the leafed state being higher than the leafless state. Similarly, the Kruskal-Wallis H test result revealed that birch tree elicits a statistically significant change in the kinetic energy of open rainfall, thus weakening the mean rainfall KE by 33.7%. On the other hand, KE is positively affected by the phenological condition of the canopy with higher attenuation being observed during its leafed state. Also, the correlation analysis demonstrated that vapor pressure deficit, air temperature, and relative humidity have stronger associations with throughfall kinetic energy among meteorological variables considered. These findings underscore the necessity of an optimized selection of tree species for afforestation programs
An evaluation of the stormwater runoff reduction of two distinct tree species to support urban greening as nature-based solutions
No full textTrees, as a vital element of urban greening, have been increasingly recognized for their hydrologic contributions to stormwater management. However, the representation of tree canopy hydrological processes is often simplified or overlooked in existing stormwater models. This study modelled and evaluated the stormwater runoff reduction potential of birch (Betula pendula) and pine (Pinus nigra) trees in three scenarios (i.e., birch, pine, and mixed planting) on a storm event basis using the updated Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) tree canopy module. The model effectively represents the rainfall interception process of both tree species during different phenoseasons, demonstrating strong correlations between simulated and observed throughfall (r = 0.97–0.99) and interception values (r = 0.72) across all storm events. The results indicate that implementing urban trees in the study area led to an average reduction of 20–25 % in runoff volume and 16–25 % in peak flow, depending on the scenarios and phenoseasons. The most significant runoff reduction benefits were observed in a mixed-species planting scenario and during the leafed season. This interplay between species highlights the advantages of mixed-species plantings in urban environments, where diverse tree characteristics can enhance hydrological performance. However, the effectiveness of trees is limited during intense, high-volume storm events, although they still provide tangible benefits of up to 13.2 % reduction. The relative contribution of canopy interception to runoff reduction is most pronounced during the leafed season, small to moderate storm events, and when trees are situated over directly connected impervious areas. Infiltration and storage beneath tree canopies are the dominant mechanism for managing and reducing surface runoff, accounting for over 20 % of the water balance. This study demonstrates that the stormwater reduction efficiency of urban trees depends on both above- and below-canopy processes and conditions
Analysis of the impact of rising sea levels on flood risks and associated damage in the town of Piran
No full textV članku analiziramo vpliv različnih scenarijev dviga srednje gladine morja zaradi podnebnih sprememb na poplavno ogroženost in pričakovano škodo zaradi poplav na območju mesta Piran. Ob upoštevanju različnih scenarijev dviga srednje gladine morja smo določili obsege poplavljanja in globine poplavnih voda na obravnavanem obalnem območju. Model KRPAN je bil uporabljen za analizo izpostavljenosti prebivalstva in različnih škodnih elementov na območju mesta Piran ter za oceno škode zaradi poplav za različne scenarije dviga srednje gladine morja. Rezultati kažejo, da se bo pogostost pojavljanja sedanjih ekstremnih morskih poplav na slovenski obali dramatično povečala za približno faktor 2 za vsakih 10 cm dviga morske gladine. Pričakovana letna škoda (PLŠ), ki omogoča upoštevanje povratnih dob poplavnih dogodkov in škode, ki jo poplave povzročijo, je za sedanje stanje ocenjena na pribl. 0,68 milijona EUR/leto. V primeru dviga morske gladine za 30 cm do leta 2100 se bo PLŠ povečala na 2,4 milijona EUR/leto, pri čemer bo večina škode zaradi poplav na stanovanjskih objektih. Če upoštevamo najbolj pesimističen scenarij dviga morske gladine, se bi PLŠ povečala na 10,2 milijona EUR/leto. Ne glede na negotovosti, povezane z napovedanimi dvigi srednje gladine morja v prihodnjih desetletjih, je dejstvo, da se bo brez izvedbe protipoplavnih ukrepov škoda zaradi poplav na območju Pirana v prihodnosti izjemno povečala. Mesto pa se bo moralo soočiti z vse večjimi posledicami poplav, ki bodo močno vplivale na normalno funkcionalno rabo urbanih površin.This paper presents analyses of the impact of various scenarios involving increases in mean sea levels due to climate change on the characteristics of sea flooding and the expected flood damage in the area surrounding the town of Piran, Slovenia. Taking into account the various scenarios of mean sea level rise, we have determined the extent of inundated areas and water depth in the coastal area under consideration. The KRPAN model was used to analyze the exposure risks facing the town’s residents and some of its spatial elements, as well as to estimate the flood damage for various scenarios of mean sea level rise. The results of the study show a likely dramatic increase in the probability that the current extreme sea flood events on the Slovenian coast will continue to occur, namely an approximately 2-fold increase in probability for every 10 cm of sea level rise. The expected annual damage for the current state is estimated at approximately €0.68 million/year, rising to €2.4 million/year in the event of an increase in the mean sea level of 30 cm by 2100, with most of the damage related to residential facilities. Considering the most pessimistic scenario of sea level rise, the annual damage is expected to increase to €10.2 million/year. Irrespective of the actual magnitude of the imminent mean sea level rise in the coming decades, the fact remains that without flood protection measures, flood damage in the Piran area will increase enormously in the future. The town will have to cope with the increasing consequences of sea flooding, which will have a major impact on the normal functioning of urban areas
- …
