Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi
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Comparison of Elliptic Envelope Method and Isolation Forest Method on Imbalance Dataset
No full textThe problem of unbalanced data is important in the field of Data Mining. Dataset with unbalanced classes is a dataset whose frequency of occurrence of certain classes is very much different from other classes. This imbalance problem will bias the classifier\u27s performance. Many researchers have examined both the development of algorithms and modifications to the preprocessing stage to overcome this problem. This study discusses the comparison of One Class Classification algorithms, namely Elliptic Envelope and Isolation Forest on unbalanced data. From this study, the Elliptic Envelope Method showed better results compared to the Isolation Forest method with 80.28% recall testing and 80.28% precision while Isolation Forest showed 46.95% recall results and 46.95% precision
Modeling of Quantile Regression to Know the Factors Affecting the High Spread Api Malaria in Indonesia
Get PDFThe OLS method estimation is based on a normal distribution, so it is not appropriate to analyze a number of data that are not symmetrical or contain outliers. Therefore, quantile regression was developed which was not affected by outliers. This study compares quantile regression with OLS in the case of factors affecting malaria in Indonesia. The results show that the value of the Quantil Regression model is 0,832 and the MSE value is 0,182. In addition, the OLS model obtained a value of 0,681 and an MSE value of 0,231. So we get the conclusion that the best model is a quantile regression model. Further results were obtained that the main factors causing the spread of malaria in Indonesia were the factor of livable houses, poor population factors and physician factors
Analysis Relationship of Imported Rice with Rice Production, Imported and Domestic Rice Prices with VECM
Get PDFRice is the main food for most Indonesians. With much natural resources, Indonesia can naturally fulfill its own rice consumption needs. However, Indonesia actually relies on imports to meet consumption needs. Even Indonesia continues to import while rice production is volatility surplus to maintain domestic rice prices. Based on these problems, this study aims to analyze the relationship of volume of imported rice with rice production, domestic rice prices, and prices of imported rice. The method used is descriptive analysis and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). In the long-term, rice production and domestic rice prices have significant effect on Indonesia\u27s rice import volume. In short-term, rice production and domestic rice prices have significant effect on Indonesian rice import volume. The results of the causality test show that there is a two-way relationship between Indonesian rice import volume and Indonesian production rice. Meanwhile, a one-way relationship occurs when imported rice volumes influenced by prices of domestic rice
Stability Analysis of Mathematical Models of the Dynamics of Spread of Meningitis with the Effects of Vaccination, Campaigns and Treatment
No full textMeningitis is an infectious disease caused by bacteria, viruses, and protosoa and has the potential to cause an outbreak. Vaccination and campaign are carried out as an effort to prevent the spread of meningitis, treatment reduces the number of deaths caused by the disease and the number of infected people. This study aims to analyze and determine the stability of equilibrium point of the mathematical model of the spread of meningitis using five compartments namely susceptibles, carriers, infected without symptoms, infected with symptoms, and recovered with the effect of vaccination, campaign, and treatment. The results obtained from the analysis of the model that there are two equilibrium points, namely non endemic and endemic equilibrium points. If a certain condition is met then the non endemic equilibrium point will be asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations show that the spread of disease decreases with the influence of vaccination, campaign, and treatment
Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan
Get PDFThis study aims to compare the best method on the forecasting system of rainfall in Medan using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Naive Model, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) . The data used in this study is rainfall data for 10 years (2009 – 2019). From the simulation by comparing existing method, the best model is SES with and value of MAPE (Mean Absolut Percentage Error) sebesar 2,47%. And then SARIMA (1,01,1)(4,0,3)12 whit value of MAPE is2,93%. Both of this model is high accurate model because value of MAPE resulted < 10%.
An application of the finite difference method for solving the mass spring system equation
Get PDFThe numerical method is one method that can be used to solve differential equations, both differential equations that are easy or difficult to solve analytically. The solution obtained from the calculation results is an approximate solution or a solution that approaches an analytic solution, not an analytic solution. That is, in solving differential equations numerically, there is always an error. In this paper, an analytical solution is described and described and the application of different methods in solving a damped mass spring system with a known limit value. The error between the analytic and numerical solutions obtained is very small
MSEICR Fractional Order Mathematical Model of The Spread Hepatitis B
Get PDFThis research aims to develop the MSEICR model by reviewing fractional orders on the spread of Hepatitis B by administering vaccinations and treatment, and analyzing fractional effects by numerical simulations of the MSEICR mathematical model using the method Grunwald Letnikov. Researchers use qualitative methods to achieve the object of research. The steps are to determine the MSEICR model by reviewing the fractional order, looking for endemic equilibrium points for each non-endemic and endemic equilibrium point, determining the equality of characteristics and eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix. Next, look for values (Basic Reproductive Numbers), analyze stability around non-endemic and endemic equilibrium points and complete numerical simulations. From the simulation provided, it is known that by giving a fractional alpha value of and , the greater the value of the fractional order parameters used, the movement of the solution graphs is getting closer to the equilibrium point. If given and still endemic, whereas if and the value is increased to non-endemic, then the number of hepatitis B sufferers will disappear
Analisis Kestabilan Model Matematika Sistem Respon Inflamasi Akibat Infeksi SARS Coronavirus
Get PDFSevere Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Coronavirus infection in a human body indicated by cytokine response due to an inflammation. The purpose of this research is to construct and analyze a mathematical model of interaction between inflammatory pro-response and anti-response cytokine to predict the dynamic on inflammatory response system, so that the treatment can be optimized. The results obtained in this research describe some dynamics which happen on the cytokines, i.e. the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one. In this condition, a patient with initial concentrations of the cytokines around the disease-free equilibrium point will be free of viral infection. The infection equilibrium point is asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is greater than one. In this condition, a patient with initial concentrations of the cytokines around the infection equilibrium point will be infected by the virus. Probability of a patient being free of viral infection can increase if the production rate of the cytokines are decreased or the degradation rate of the cytokines are increased.Infeksi Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Coronavirus pada tubuh manusia ditandai dengan respon sitokin akibat adanya inflamasi. Pada artikel ini, dikonstruksi model matematika interaksi antara sitokin pro-respon dan anti-respon inflamasi untuk memprediksi dinamika pada sistem respon inflamasi, sehingga pengobatan dapat dioptimalkan. Titik ekuilibrium bebas penyakit bersifat stabil asimtotik jika bilangan reproduksi dasar bernilai kurang dari satu. Pada kondisi ini, pasien dengan keadaan awal konsentrasi sitokin pro-respon dan anti-respon inflamasi di sekitar titik ekuilibrium bebas penyakit akan bebas dari infeksi virus. Titik ekuilibrium infeksi bersifat stabil asimtotik jika bilangan reproduksi dasar bernilai lebih dari satu. Pada kondisi ini, pasien dengan keadaan awal konsentrasi sitokin pro-respon dan anti-respon inflamasi di sekitar titik ekuilibrium infeksi akan terinfeksi virus. Probabilitas terbebasnya pasien dari infeksi virus dapat bertambah apabila tingkat produksi konsentrasi pro-respon dan anti-respon sitokin menurun atau tingkat degradasi sitokin pro-respon dan anti-respon meningkat
Total Irregular Labelling Of Butterfly and Beneš Network 5-Dimension
Get PDFThis paper aims to determine the total vertex irregularity strength and total edge irregularity strength of Butterfly and Beneš Network 5-Dimension. The determination of the total vertex irregularity strength and the edge irregularity strength was conducted by determining the lower bound and upper bound. The lower bound was analyzed based on characteristics of the graph and other proponent theorems, while upper bound was analyzed by constructing the function of the irregular total labeling. The result show that the total vertex irregularity strength of Butterfly Network , the total edge irregularity strength . The total vertex irregularity strength of Beneš Network , the total edge irregularity strengt
Challenges and Roles of Official Statistics in the Covid-19 Pandemic
Get PDFOfficial Statistics is a statistical activity carried out by the government relating to the collecting, processing and presenting of data in the government sector. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the government statistical activities underwent a change. Especially in the case of data collection in the field. Data collection by face to face directly begin to switch to online methods. With intertnet connection and technology information tools, activity related collecting data stiil done by online, especially to eradicate pandemic Covid-19. Official Statistics plays an important role through data produced associate with Covid-19 and with these data, the appropiate decision to accomplish pandemic Covid-19 can be mad