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Decompose et Impera: tensor methods in high-dimensional data
No full textThis thesis is written with the scope of exploring multiway data. Multiway
data, also referred to as tensor data, is a collection of data points in multidimensional matrices. At a first glance one may think that these objects
are only a convenient representation of a datasets. They are not just a col-
lection of data, they have their own structure. For this reason, multiway
data need specific models to be correctly analysed. In this spirit, I developed
my personal idea on data analysis which can be represented by following
statement:
\It is not the data that should fit models, but models that should fit the data"
However, this should not be taken literary I do think that models are im-
portant: giving a structure to our techniques is necessary. Nevertheless, I do
think that data should be the main driver.This means that instead of trimming data at our necessity to fit existing models, researchers should develop
new models to re
ect the complexity of the data.
The purpose of this work is to provide an overview of tensor methods applied
to Economics and Finance. Yet, the most important aspect of this thesis are
ideas and applications rather than the mathematical content. New models
are proposed and fitted to data in order to test their performance and get
insights from the datasets analysed.
The description of the tensor methods provided in this thesis is not intended
to be complete but rather restricted to the model applicable to the analysed
data.This thesis is written with the scope of exploring multiway data. Multiway
data, also referred to as tensor data, is a collection of data points in multidimensional matrices. At a first glance one may think that these objects
are only a convenient representation of a datasets. They are not just a col-
lection of data, they have their own structure. For this reason, multiway
data need specific models to be correctly analysed. In this spirit, I developed
my personal idea on data analysis which can be represented by following
statement:
\It is not the data that should fit models, but models that should fit the data"
However, this should not be taken literary I do think that models are im-
portant: giving a structure to our techniques is necessary. Nevertheless, I do
think that data should be the main driver.This means that instead of trimming data at our necessity to fit existing models, researchers should develop
new models to re
ect the complexity of the data.
The purpose of this work is to provide an overview of tensor methods applied
to Economics and Finance. Yet, the most important aspect of this thesis are
ideas and applications rather than the mathematical content. New models
are proposed and fitted to data in order to test their performance and get
insights from the datasets analysed.
The description of the tensor methods provided in this thesis is not intended
to be complete but rather restricted to the model applicable to the analysed
data.LUISS PhD Thesi
Neo-Pan-Islamism in Turkey: foreign policy discourse of Turkey’s Islamist thinkers and parties (1970s-1990s)
No full textConcepts and typologies for a research on Turkish Islamist Parties and
their foreign policy ambitions. A brief history of Turkish Islamism: main thinkers and organizations. The political role of the Naqshbandi Sufi order from the Ottoman
Empire to the Republican Era. International affairs discourse of key Islamist authors in Republican
Turkey. The Islamist discourse on foreign affairs in Turkey’s Islamist magazines. Elements of neo-Pan-Islamist foreign policy discourse in the NOM’s
political parties (1970s-1990s).Concepts and typologies for a research on Turkish Islamist Parties and
their foreign policy ambitions. A brief history of Turkish Islamism: main thinkers and organizations. The political role of the Naqshbandi Sufi order from the Ottoman
Empire to the Republican Era. International affairs discourse of key Islamist authors in Republican
Turkey. The Islamist discourse on foreign affairs in Turkey’s Islamist magazines. Elements of neo-Pan-Islamist foreign policy discourse in the NOM’s
political parties (1970s-1990s).LUISS PhD Thesi
Crowd science: methods to motivate contributors and firms' benefits
No full textCrowd science: definition, trend and research questions. Activating social strategies: face-to-face interaction in technology-mediated citizen science. Bring them aboard: rewarding participation in technology mediated citizen science projects. When does crowdsourcing benefit firm performance 103.Crowd science: definition, trend and research questions. Activating social strategies: face-to-face interaction in technology-mediated citizen science. Bring them aboard: rewarding participation in technology mediated citizen science projects. When does crowdsourcing benefit firm performance 103.LUISS PhD Thesi
Essays in Empirical Political Economy
Full text linkThe work in chapter 1 exploits the timing and public circulation of budget forecasts in Italian
municipalities in order to produce empirical evidence of strategic behaviour by mayors on their
promised investments. In particular, using a province fixed-effects model, mayors are shown to
over-promise investments in election years by 20% more than over the rest of the term. The
results are driven by mayors who are not term-limited, and also by those unaffiliated to national
parties and with greater levels of education, in line with previous evidence produced over political
budget cycles. Moreover, mayors who over-promise more in election years are those who engage
in higher pre-electoral increases in investments, thus creating a bridge between traditional po-
litical budget cycle and this strategic behaviour. Lastly, I present some suggestive evidence of a
positive effect of the strategic behaviour on the probability of re-running and of being re-elected.
There has been a recent surge of interest in the link between globalization and the political
repercussions caused by increased exposure to low-cost import competition, which has found
it to cause increased political polarization and a surge in vote for radical right-wing parties.
The second chapter focuses on Italy, which is an interesting case study given its highly-exposed
economy, and its multi-party system which includes radical right- and left-wing parties and also
populist movements. In order to investigate the political effects caused by the trade shock de-
termined by China's exogenous growth in productivity I construct an exhaustive database on
the period between 1994 to 2016 and find that, in contrast to the related literature, there is no
causal positive effect on the support for radical parties, nor is the rise in populist politics caused
by increased exposure to the Chinese trade shock.The work in chapter 1 exploits the timing and public circulation of budget forecasts in Italian
municipalities in order to produce empirical evidence of strategic behaviour by mayors on their
promised investments. In particular, using a province fixed-effects model, mayors are shown to
over-promise investments in election years by 20% more than over the rest of the term. The
results are driven by mayors who are not term-limited, and also by those unaffiliated to national
parties and with greater levels of education, in line with previous evidence produced over political
budget cycles. Moreover, mayors who over-promise more in election years are those who engage
in higher pre-electoral increases in investments, thus creating a bridge between traditional po-
litical budget cycle and this strategic behaviour. Lastly, I present some suggestive evidence of a
positive effect of the strategic behaviour on the probability of re-running and of being re-elected.
There has been a recent surge of interest in the link between globalization and the political
repercussions caused by increased exposure to low-cost import competition, which has found
it to cause increased political polarization and a surge in vote for radical right-wing parties.
The second chapter focuses on Italy, which is an interesting case study given its highly-exposed
economy, and its multi-party system which includes radical right- and left-wing parties and also
populist movements. In order to investigate the political effects caused by the trade shock de-
termined by China's exogenous growth in productivity I construct an exhaustive database on
the period between 1994 to 2016 and find that, in contrast to the related literature, there is no
causal positive effect on the support for radical parties, nor is the rise in populist politics caused
by increased exposure to the Chinese trade shock.LUISS PhD Thesi
Cross-border mergers: an Italian perspective
No full textAccording to a theoretical model of a perfect “market for
corporate law”, companies should be allowed to select the corporate
law they prefer, regardless of the countries where the firm’s activities
take place or where the corporate headquarters is.
However, a free demand of law requires freedom of
incorporation (as well as freedom of reincorporation) for companies,
which can therefore leave the country of origin and switch to the law
of a different State.
While in the U.S. this model become reality, in Europe the path
has been difficult, and freedom to reincorporate under the law of
another Member State is a recent achievement.
Many European jurisdictions refused the pseudo-foreign
corporations through a process of disqualification, denying their legal
personality and access to justice, or by subjecting them to its
jurisdiction.
But, the European Economic Community experience taught that
freedom of States to provide restrictions to the entry of foreign
companies could be limited by a regional economic integration
process (such as the European one). Freedom of establishment
guaranteed by the Treaty is likely to come into conflict with the
domestic corporate laws of the members States, as well as with the
international private laws provided by the same countries as a
protectionist tool to ensure the application of the same domestic
corporate law. So, re-incorporations have been admitted in the European Union
and liberalized by E.U. derivative law not directly – i.e. by allowing
"direct reincorporation" abroad – but through cross-border mergers.
With the Directive 2005/56/CE of the Parliament and the
Council, 26 October 2005 (Tenth Directive), free choice of law
through the European Union has been recognized (but not directly),
imposing to Member States to provide specific rules governing crossborder
mergers. A company incorporated in a Member State,
therefore, can now incorporate a new shell company in another
Member State and then merge into said vehicle, determining a change
in the applicable law.
Italy has implemented the Tenth Directive by virtue of
Legislative Decree (decreto legislativo) 30 May 2008, no. 108 (as
slightly amended in 2014 by the so-called “European law 2013bis”).
The Directive is rich of references to national legislation, as it
draws a legislative perimeter aimed at, first of all, allowing mergers
between companies of member States and providing them legal
certainty, thus avoiding that companies perform complicated
transactions often in violation of mandatory rules provided by one or
more jurisdictions in question.
Once it has become possible in Europe to choose the
applicable law in accordance with companies’ economic and strategic
interests, also law provisions adopted by the Member States may be
considered as products of a specific market, which has been called
“market of rules”.
This mechanism has resulted in a positive form of competition
among the States, which started adopting specific measures in order to
improve their domestic corporate rules and their own models of
corporate governance. In this scenario, the Italian reform that has introduced multiple
voting shares mechanism in the Italian corporate law system
(Legislative Decree no. 91/2014, converted into Law no. 116/2014),
may be easily put in relation with the awareness of the Italian
government to have “lost” one of the historical Italian corporation,
FIAT S.p.A.. Therefore, it shows how corporate mobility may have
the effect to stimulate the States to improve their corporate law in a
perspective of harmonization of corporate law at the EU level.
In consideration of the above, it should be concluded that the
market of rules, which put national corporate laws in competition
among each other, may be seen as a useful instrument able to
gradually remove the differences still existing among Member States’
legislations. This would led to a global harmonization, which may be
define as “de facto” and “from below” harmonization.According to a theoretical model of a perfect “market for
corporate law”, companies should be allowed to select the corporate
law they prefer, regardless of the countries where the firm’s activities
take place or where the corporate headquarters is.
However, a free demand of law requires freedom of
incorporation (as well as freedom of reincorporation) for companies,
which can therefore leave the country of origin and switch to the law
of a different State.
While in the U.S. this model become reality, in Europe the path
has been difficult, and freedom to reincorporate under the law of
another Member State is a recent achievement.
Many European jurisdictions refused the pseudo-foreign
corporations through a process of disqualification, denying their legal
personality and access to justice, or by subjecting them to its
jurisdiction.
But, the European Economic Community experience taught that
freedom of States to provide restrictions to the entry of foreign
companies could be limited by a regional economic integration
process (such as the European one). Freedom of establishment
guaranteed by the Treaty is likely to come into conflict with the
domestic corporate laws of the members States, as well as with the
international private laws provided by the same countries as a
protectionist tool to ensure the application of the same domestic
corporate law. So, re-incorporations have been admitted in the European Union
and liberalized by E.U. derivative law not directly – i.e. by allowing
"direct reincorporation" abroad – but through cross-border mergers.
With the Directive 2005/56/CE of the Parliament and the
Council, 26 October 2005 (Tenth Directive), free choice of law
through the European Union has been recognized (but not directly),
imposing to Member States to provide specific rules governing crossborder
mergers. A company incorporated in a Member State,
therefore, can now incorporate a new shell company in another
Member State and then merge into said vehicle, determining a change
in the applicable law.
Italy has implemented the Tenth Directive by virtue of
Legislative Decree (decreto legislativo) 30 May 2008, no. 108 (as
slightly amended in 2014 by the so-called “European law 2013bis”).
The Directive is rich of references to national legislation, as it
draws a legislative perimeter aimed at, first of all, allowing mergers
between companies of member States and providing them legal
certainty, thus avoiding that companies perform complicated
transactions often in violation of mandatory rules provided by one or
more jurisdictions in question.
Once it has become possible in Europe to choose the
applicable law in accordance with companies’ economic and strategic
interests, also law provisions adopted by the Member States may be
considered as products of a specific market, which has been called
“market of rules”.
This mechanism has resulted in a positive form of competition
among the States, which started adopting specific measures in order to
improve their domestic corporate rules and their own models of
corporate governance. In this scenario, the Italian reform that has introduced multiple
voting shares mechanism in the Italian corporate law system
(Legislative Decree no. 91/2014, converted into Law no. 116/2014),
may be easily put in relation with the awareness of the Italian
government to have “lost” one of the historical Italian corporation,
FIAT S.p.A.. Therefore, it shows how corporate mobility may have
the effect to stimulate the States to improve their corporate law in a
perspective of harmonization of corporate law at the EU level.
In consideration of the above, it should be concluded that the
market of rules, which put national corporate laws in competition
among each other, may be seen as a useful instrument able to
gradually remove the differences still existing among Member States’
legislations. This would led to a global harmonization, which may be
define as “de facto” and “from below” harmonization.LUISS PhD Thesi
Impact Analysis of Corporate Board Structure on Firm-Level Outcomes in Weak Institutional Regimes
No full textThis dissertation aimed at analyzing various aspects of corporate board, the roles of different actors in it and their impact on firm-level outcomes. By providing a framework on the governance differences that exist across strong and weak institutional contexts, this study focused its attention on the way board functions and impacts organizational consequences in weak institutional regimes. The roles played by boards of directors differ across strong and weak institutional contexts. In strong institutional economies, boards’ main function is to work on behalf of the shareholders with an aim of minimizing managerial opportunism and maximize shareholders’ wealth. On the contrary, in weak institutional regimes characterized by concentrated ownership and control, boards’ role shifts from overseeing managers to acting as mediators between dominant shareholders who are also part of management, and the outside dispersed shareholders and play a role in preventing expropriation of the latter by the former. However, the efficacy of firm-level governance mechanisms depends largely on the quality of external governance and institutions which causes organizational activities to differ significantly between strong and weak institutional regimes. Having said that, ineffectiveness of external governance mechanisms in weak institutional framework creates more challenges for boards of directors to perform their duties effectively. By addressing this issue which is of critical importance in corporate governance research and focusing on an emerging economy which is often under-researched for this type of studies, each and every chapter of this dissertation contributed to the literature on corporate boards and institutional environments and at the same time provided directions for future research works.This dissertation aimed at analyzing various aspects of corporate board, the roles of different actors in it and their impact on firm-level outcomes. By providing a framework on the governance differences that exist across strong and weak institutional contexts, this study focused its attention on the way board functions and impacts organizational consequences in weak institutional regimes. The roles played by boards of directors differ across strong and weak institutional contexts. In strong institutional economies, boards’ main function is to work on behalf of the shareholders with an aim of minimizing managerial opportunism and maximize shareholders’ wealth. On the contrary, in weak institutional regimes characterized by concentrated ownership and control, boards’ role shifts from overseeing managers to acting as mediators between dominant shareholders who are also part of management, and the outside dispersed shareholders and play a role in preventing expropriation of the latter by the former. However, the efficacy of firm-level governance mechanisms depends largely on the quality of external governance and institutions which causes organizational activities to differ significantly between strong and weak institutional regimes. Having said that, ineffectiveness of external governance mechanisms in weak institutional framework creates more challenges for boards of directors to perform their duties effectively. By addressing this issue which is of critical importance in corporate governance research and focusing on an emerging economy which is often under-researched for this type of studies, each and every chapter of this dissertation contributed to the literature on corporate boards and institutional environments and at the same time provided directions for future research works.LUISS PhD Thesi
Economic Growh and Cohesion Policy Implementation in Italy and Spain: Institutions, Strategic Choices, Administrative Change
No full textConceptualizing Cohesion Policy as A Case of Development Policy: A Framework for the Empirical Analysis. Understanding the Rules of the Game: How Cohesion Policy Works. The Italian Case: Between Decentralization and the Legacies of the Past. The Spanish Case: The Benefits of a National Coordination. Two Cases in a Comparative Perspective.Conceptualizing Cohesion Policy as A Case of Development Policy: A Framework for the Empirical Analysis. Understanding the Rules of the Game: How Cohesion Policy Works. The Italian Case: Between Decentralization and the Legacies of the Past. The Spanish Case: The Benefits of a National Coordination. Two Cases in a Comparative Perspective.LUISS PhD Thesi
Essays on monetary policy transmission and the crisis
No full textThe Global Financial Crisis has been one of the most significant
economic shocks since the Great Depression. As the Crisis intensified,
there was a large fall in markets’ capacity to accept risk. The result was
a situation of tight credit conditions and in some cases dysfunctional
markets, accompanied by a general loss of confidence. This dissertation
explores some of the forces that have been working to mitigate the
negative effects in the aftermath of the Crisis.
The first chapter analyses the role played by central bank forwardlooking
communication in shaping markets’ expectation. To this aim,
we propose a new index of central bank’s verbal guidance, which measures
the communication about future based on the frequency of future
verbs in monetary policy statements. The purpose is to test whether and
the extent to which verbal guidance might be considered an additional
policy instrument. We consider the case of the European Central Bank
(ECB) and follow a two-steps procedure. First, we analyze the main
determinants of our index and estimate the unexpected component.
Second, we investigate the effects of the identified innovation of verbal
guidance on daily changes of forward money markets rates between
September 2007 and December 2015. Our results show that financial
markets’ expectations on future short-term interest rates react to a
shock of communication about future: the effect is negative and larger
for higher horizons, after controlling for the standard policy rate shock
and the announcement of unconventional monetary policies. This
suggests that the verbal guidance may be considered an additional policy instrument.
The second chapter provides evidence about the tightening credit
conditions faced by the private sector in Italy in the aftermath of the
Global Crisis and analyses the role played by social capital. Since
social capital is a key determinant of trust, it should positively affects
the supply of credit, in particular during crises when confidence is
under stress, as it was for the financial turmoil of 2008. To investigate
whether and the extent to which social capital mitigated the credit
rationing following the Crisis, we compare the probability of approving
a loan requests lodged by over half a million Italian non-financial
corporations before and after the default of Lehman Brothers (from
January 2007 to June 2010). We find that firms headquartered in
high-social capital provinces suffered less: while during the Crisis
the probability of loan approval declined for all firms, for those ones
headquartered in high-social-capital areas the decline was half that of
low-social-capital areas, indicating that social capital smoothed the
impact of the shock. Moreover, consistent with theory, we find that
social capital conveys its mitigating effect on credit rationing in cases in
which the reciprocal trust, because of the lack of information, matters
more.The Global Financial Crisis has been one of the most significant
economic shocks since the Great Depression. As the Crisis intensified,
there was a large fall in markets’ capacity to accept risk. The result was
a situation of tight credit conditions and in some cases dysfunctional
markets, accompanied by a general loss of confidence. This dissertation
explores some of the forces that have been working to mitigate the
negative effects in the aftermath of the Crisis.
The first chapter analyses the role played by central bank forwardlooking
communication in shaping markets’ expectation. To this aim,
we propose a new index of central bank’s verbal guidance, which measures
the communication about future based on the frequency of future
verbs in monetary policy statements. The purpose is to test whether and
the extent to which verbal guidance might be considered an additional
policy instrument. We consider the case of the European Central Bank
(ECB) and follow a two-steps procedure. First, we analyze the main
determinants of our index and estimate the unexpected component.
Second, we investigate the effects of the identified innovation of verbal
guidance on daily changes of forward money markets rates between
September 2007 and December 2015. Our results show that financial
markets’ expectations on future short-term interest rates react to a
shock of communication about future: the effect is negative and larger
for higher horizons, after controlling for the standard policy rate shock
and the announcement of unconventional monetary policies. This
suggests that the verbal guidance may be considered an additional policy instrument.
The second chapter provides evidence about the tightening credit
conditions faced by the private sector in Italy in the aftermath of the
Global Crisis and analyses the role played by social capital. Since
social capital is a key determinant of trust, it should positively affects
the supply of credit, in particular during crises when confidence is
under stress, as it was for the financial turmoil of 2008. To investigate
whether and the extent to which social capital mitigated the credit
rationing following the Crisis, we compare the probability of approving
a loan requests lodged by over half a million Italian non-financial
corporations before and after the default of Lehman Brothers (from
January 2007 to June 2010). We find that firms headquartered in
high-social capital provinces suffered less: while during the Crisis
the probability of loan approval declined for all firms, for those ones
headquartered in high-social-capital areas the decline was half that of
low-social-capital areas, indicating that social capital smoothed the
impact of the shock. Moreover, consistent with theory, we find that
social capital conveys its mitigating effect on credit rationing in cases in
which the reciprocal trust, because of the lack of information, matters
more.LUISS PhD Thesi
Essays on monetary policy before and after the crisis
No full textIn Chapter 1 I brie
y introduce the issues that will be studied in Chapter 2 and 3. In
Chapter 2 I introduce a macroprudential policy for the cap on debt-to-income (DTI) ratio in
a model which is estimated over the period of the build-up of household debt occurred in US
before the financial crisis. The optimal macroprudential policy requires a more important role
for labor income in credit supply decision and a strong countercyclical response of the cap on DTI
to household debt. I find that this optimal macroprudential policy is successful in stabilizing
household debt, is beneficial in terms of social welfare and is desirable as a complement for
monetary policy, when this is enforced as a standard Taylor rule. I then consider also a monetary
policy that can "lean against the wind" of a credit boom to pursue financial stability. It turns out
that this policy is welfare-dominated by the strategy of assigning this goal to a macroprudential
authority committing to optimally implementing the cap on DTI. However, the best-performing
policy is a combination of "leaning against the wind" strategy and macroprudential policy.
In Chapter 3 I study optimal government spending and monetary policy in an economy hit
by a liquidity shock, which may generate recession and de
ation. I find that the optimal policy
mix implies a money-financed fiscal stimulus, which is shaped as a one-period countercyclical
fiscal stimulus along with a prolonged central bank's balance-sheet expansion. By comparing
this optimal policy with other suboptimal policies we uncover several facts. First, an unconventional
monetary policy performs unambiguously better when accompanied by a fiscal stimulus.
Second, financing the stimulus with only public debt brings about long-lasting recession and
de
ation. Third, "active" monetary policies, like the standard Taylor rule, "in
ation targeting"
and "nominal GDP targeting" are efficient policies if the increase in money supply brought
about by these policies is complemented with an optimal fiscal stimulus.In Chapter 1 I brie
y introduce the issues that will be studied in Chapter 2 and 3. In
Chapter 2 I introduce a macroprudential policy for the cap on debt-to-income (DTI) ratio in
a model which is estimated over the period of the build-up of household debt occurred in US
before the financial crisis. The optimal macroprudential policy requires a more important role
for labor income in credit supply decision and a strong countercyclical response of the cap on DTI
to household debt. I find that this optimal macroprudential policy is successful in stabilizing
household debt, is beneficial in terms of social welfare and is desirable as a complement for
monetary policy, when this is enforced as a standard Taylor rule. I then consider also a monetary
policy that can "lean against the wind" of a credit boom to pursue financial stability. It turns out
that this policy is welfare-dominated by the strategy of assigning this goal to a macroprudential
authority committing to optimally implementing the cap on DTI. However, the best-performing
policy is a combination of "leaning against the wind" strategy and macroprudential policy.
In Chapter 3 I study optimal government spending and monetary policy in an economy hit
by a liquidity shock, which may generate recession and de
ation. I find that the optimal policy
mix implies a money-financed fiscal stimulus, which is shaped as a one-period countercyclical
fiscal stimulus along with a prolonged central bank's balance-sheet expansion. By comparing
this optimal policy with other suboptimal policies we uncover several facts. First, an unconventional
monetary policy performs unambiguously better when accompanied by a fiscal stimulus.
Second, financing the stimulus with only public debt brings about long-lasting recession and
de
ation. Third, "active" monetary policies, like the standard Taylor rule, "in
ation targeting"
and "nominal GDP targeting" are efficient policies if the increase in money supply brought
about by these policies is complemented with an optimal fiscal stimulus.LUISS PhD Thesi
