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A Verification of Japanese and U.S. Stock Index Fluctuations after the Convergence of COVID-19 Pandemic : An Empirical Analysis of Stock Index Using Bayesian Model and AI Simulation
Full text linkapplication/pdfIn the 1980s, Japan was praised as “Japan as number one” and was the focus of the world’s attention. The economy was expanding steadily, dominating the world market share in the high-tech products of the time: TVs, VTRs, cameras, automobiles, and semiconductors. However, Japan’s export expansion led to trade friction with advanced economies, and the Plaza Accord of 1985 attempted to curb Japan’s export expansion by inducing the dollar-yen exchange rate to appreciate against the yen. The curtailment of exports by the strong yen led to a recession in Japan, and the economy temporarily stagnated. However, in 1986, the Bank of Japan lowered the official discount rate and changed course to an easy monetary policy. Banks and other financial institutions aggressively expanded loans to corporations and individuals. As a result, there was a money glut in the market, and consumers continued to prefer expensive products, an unusual situation. On December 29, 1989, the Nikkei Stock Average hit an all-time high of 38,915 yen, marking the peak of the so-called bubble economy. In 1990, the Bank of Japan raised the official discount rate and shifted to a tight monetary policy. The bubble economy collapsed, and land prices and stock prices fell sharply. Banks and other financial institutions, concerned about non-performing loans, began to recover their funds at an early stage. The Japanese economy experienced an exhausting and then nearly three decades of stagnation. The Nikkei Stock Average continued to decline, falling to 7,607 yen in April 2003. It then recovered to 18,261 yen in July 2007, but the Lehman shock in September 2008 brought it to 6,994 yen on October 28, 2008, its lowest level since the burst of the bubble economy. After a long period of stagnation, the Japanese economy gradually began to recover from 2013 onward with the shift to bold monetary easing policies under the Abenomics policy. But, the economy was unable to break free from deflation. Furthermore, entering 2020, the economy fell again due to the global andemic of the new coronavirus. However, by the beginning of 2023, the pandemic of the new coronavirus had subsided and the domestic economy gradually began to recover, raising hopes for a revival of the Japanese economy. The Nikkei Stock Average has continued to rise since late 2023, reaching an all-time high of 40,109 yen on March 3, 2024. In this paper, I have analyzed the trend of the stock market, which has been going through twists and turns and reached its highest level in 34 years, from the perspectives of corporate performance, interest rates, and inflation using a state-space model. I also attempted to predict future stock prices using artificial intelligence（AI）. Based on the results, we discussed the challenges of the current Japanese economy and the prospects for the stock market.departmental bulletin pape
International Migration and Acquisition of Citizenship in the EU
Full text linkapplication/pdf本稿は、EUにおける人の移動の実態を明らかにしていくうえで基礎となる事項をまとめることを目的とする。そのため、まず欧州連合（EU）統計局（Eurostat）の2021年の統計をもとに、EU における人の移動の概況をみていく。その際、域外出身者の移動だけではなく、EU 市民による他のEU 加盟国への移動についても着目していく。次に、各加盟国における国籍取得の状況についてとりあげる。国籍取得者は、EU 全体でみれば域外出身者が85%と多いが、EU 市民が他の加盟国の国籍を取得している割合も13%と一定程度みられる。加盟国によっては、EU 市民が国籍を取得している割合の方が圧倒的に多い場合もある。EU 加盟国への移民、また国籍取得者の年齢が若いこともふまえ、出生にともなう国籍取得に係る規定や複数国籍を保持することが可能かどうかについても示していく。研究ノートdepartmental bulletin pape
Analysis of Waste Emissions Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic by the Japan General Waste Disposal Survey Results
Full text linkapplication/pdfThis paper deals with the Japan General Waste Disposal Survey Results to analyze the waste emissions dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic in fiscal year 2020. The analysis reveals a decrease in the amount of business waste emitted mainly in business areas, and an increase in the amount of household waste emitted mainly in residential areas.研究ノートdepartmental bulletin pape
Individual Characteristics on Motivation for Vaccination against COVID-19 Vaccfine : Internet Survey of People Teens to 40s
Full text linkapplication/pdf本研究の目的は、10代から40代の者を対象に、COVID-19ワクチンの接種動機に及ぼす個人特性を明らかにすることであった。2021年7・8月に10代から40代の男女を対象に、COVID-19ワクチンの接種動機、COVID-19及びCOVID-19ワクチンに対する意識、個人特性について、インターネット調査を行った。個人特性としては、楽観性・悲観性、インターネット被影響性、客観性、親和動機を取り上げた。年代×性別による2要因分散分析を行ったところ、接種動機については要因の有意な効果はみられなかった。また、個人特性、COVID-19及びCOVID-19ワクチンに対する意識、接種動機による因果モデルを作成し、共分散構造分析を行ったところ、悲観性や楽観性、親和動機が接種動機に対して、直接的、あるいは間接的に影響を及ぼしていることが明らかとなった。departmental bulletin pape
Vocational Support for People with Developmental Disabilities in Correctional Facilities : A Survey of Correctional Facilities
Full text linkapplication/pdf本研究の目的は、矯正施設を退所・出院する発達障害がある人への就労支援について、支援の実情および課題を把握するため実施した。
方法は、全国の矯正施設122庁を対象に質問紙調査を実施した。質問内容は「発達障害のある矯正施設退所者に向けての就労支援実施の有無」「就労支援に関する連携機関」「関係機関との個人情報の情報共有」「連携の実情」「入所者への就労支援上の意識と困難」について刑務所と少年院に分けて尋ね、自由記述の内容をKJ法で分類した。さらに、4庁の矯正施設に面接調査を実施した。
結果は、就労支援の有無に関わらず、日常の作業や教育課程の中で就労につながる支援を行っていた。特に、少年院では教育的配慮から、出院後のアフターケアと少年や雇い主への働きかけが行われていた。考察として、発達障害と触法事例という二重のスティグマがあることを念頭に、退所後の支援を充実させることが必要であると考えられた。departmental bulletin pape
Current Conditions and Issues of the Tidal Flat
Full text linkapplication/pdf本研究は東京湾最大の干潟である三番瀬において、GPS を利用いたベントス（メガベントス）採取により、ベントスの種類と生息分布から干潟環境の現状を把握し、課題を提起することを目的とした。干潟のほぼ全域で腐食連鎖の分解者であるアラムシロ（Nassarius festivus）や捕食者のヤミヨキセワタ（Melanochlamys fukudai）が多く採取されるなどベントスの個体数に偏りがみられた。また、水質浄化機能の高いゴカイ類（Hediste spp.）などの環形動物類やアサリ（Ruditapes philippinarum）などの軟体動物類の二枚貝は、潮汐による海水が流入しやすい干潟前面での採取数が多いことがわかった。これらのことから種類による個体数の偏りと生息分布に傾向があることが判明した。しかし、この特徴が調査対象地域だけなのか三番瀬全体の特徴なのか、生物多様性の視点からも考察することが課題となった。研究ノートdepartmental bulletin pape
Preserving Local Wisdom for Effective Disaster Risk Reduction in Brau Village, East Java
Full text linkapplication/pdfDisaster management in Indonesia has traditionally leaned heavily on scientific analysis while overlooking the valuable contributions of local wisdom. From a ritual communication perspective, this study seeks to explore how residents of Brau Village cultivate their understanding of disasters through the utilization of their indigenous knowledge. To delve into the local traditions of the Brau Village in mitigating disaster risks, a case study was conducted, employing participant observation and interviews as data collection methods. The findings can be categorized into four main aspects. Firstly, the Brau Village community acknowledges their susceptibility to disasters, leading to an informal agreement among them to maintain ecological equilibrium by regulating the types of plant vegetation allowed on their sloped land. Secondly, the village undergoes a monthly cleanup, accompanied by traditional celebrations at their ancestors’ tombs. Thirdly, the community regularly conducts a pre-planting ritual known as Cok Bakal to ensure the optimal growth of plants. Lastly, the Brau Village residents engage in a weekly Tahlilan ceremony on Friday nights, serving as a traditional form of communication among themselves. This strong sense of solidarity cultivated by the people of Brau is evident in their collective response when disaster strikes.departmental bulletin pape
