Institut für Höhere Studien - Institute for Advanced Studies
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Auswirkungen der Pandemie auf Jugendliche im Bereich Bildung und Arbeitsmarkt. Funktioniert das Monitoring in Krisenzeiten und die ÜBA als Auffangnetz in Abschwungphasen?
Get PDFIn diesem Vortrag wird zunächst der Frage nachgegangen, worin die Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie am Arbeitsmarkt und im Bildungsbereich für Jugendliche liegen. Dabei werden Kompetenz- und Laufbahnauswirkungen ins Zentrum gestellt. Dem folgt eine kritische Diskussion des Monitoringsystems, wobei Erfassungslückenund Widerspüchlichkeiten über den Verbleib der Jugendlichen zutage treten. Auch die Analyse der Entwicklung der ÜBA (Überbetriebliche Lehrausbildung) zeigt, dass sie ihrer Funktion als Auffangnetz in Krisenzeiten nur partiell und regional sehr unterschiedlich nachkommt.
Die Ergebnisse in Summe deuten auf einen erheblichen Analyse- und Reformbedarf hin
Adipositas: Versorgungsherausforderung der Zukunft
Get PDFDie steigende Adipositas-Prävalenz und das Entstehen neuer Therapieansätze werden das öffentliche Gesundheitswesen vor einige Herausforderungen stellen. Wir geben ein kurzes Update der Präventions- und Therapieansätze und ihrer Bedeutung für die öffentliche Gesundheit
The effects of increased monitoring on high wealth individuals: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in Indonesia
Get PDFIn 2009, Indonesia introduced a specialised tax office focused on High Wealth Individuals (HWIs), increasing the audit probability and monitoring of around 1200 wealthy taxpayers in Jakarta. Leveraging a quasi-natural experiment and analysing 141,097 de-identified individual tax return records between 2006 and 2012, we developed a set of counterfactuals to evaluate the post- and pre-treatment tax declarations of the monitored taxpayers relative to their synthetic control groups. Our results indicate that although post-treatment declaration of taxable and earned income, as well as income tax, increased, the effect was short-lived. The increase in reported earned income was larger relative to taxable income, suggesting that monitored individuals exerted efforts to reduce tax payments. Furthermore, we identified a comparable positive spillover effect on income declaration for non-treated taxpayers in Jakarta who met the HWI criteria. We also demonstrated that the spillover effect drastically decreased as financial characteristics (such as income and wealth) diverged from those of the targeted population. Overall, the additional tax revenue generated from this program is small in comparison to the total tax revenue collected
Residual-based cointegration and non-cointegration tests for cointegrating polynomial regressions
Get PDFCointegrating polynomial regressions (CPRs), i.e., regressions that include deterministic terms, integrated processes and powers of integrated processes as explanatory variables and stationary errors, have become prominent in several fields of applications, e.g., in the analysis of environmental Kuznets curves. A key issue, as always in cointegration analysis, is testing for the presence or absence of a cointegrating relationship. This paper discusses two complementary tests: one with the null hypothesis of cointegration and one with the null hypothesis of the absence of cointegration. It is shown that (inter alia) for the empirically most relevant case, in which only one of the integrated regressors occurs as regressor also with higher powers, critical values can be simulated and are provided for a variety of specifications. Finally, the usage of the tests is illustrated for the environmental Kuznets curve for carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions. The illustration also investigates the sensitivity of the test decisions with respect to kernel and bandwidth choices, sample size and data vintage
Economic forecasting with an agent-based model
Get PDFWe develop the first agent-based model (ABM) that can compete with benchmark VAR and DSGE models in out-of-sample forecasting of macro variables. Our ABM for a small open economy uses micro and macro data from national accounts, sector accounts, input–output tables, government statistics, and census and business demography data. The model incorporates all economic activities as classified by the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010) and includes all economic sectors populated with millions of heterogeneous agents. In addition to being a competitive model framework for forecasts of aggregate variables, the detailed structure of the ABM allows for a breakdown into sector-level forecasts. Using this detailed structure, we demonstrate the ABM by forecasting the medium-run macroeconomic effects of lockdown measures taken in Austria to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Potential applications of the model include stress-testing and predicting the effects of monetary or fiscal macroeconomic policies
Does robotization affect job quality? Evidence from European regional labor markets
Get PDFWhereas there are recent papers on the effect of robot adoption on employment and wages, there is no evidence on how robots affect non-monetary working conditions. We explore the impact of robot adoption on several domains of non-monetary working conditions in Europe over the period 1995–2005 combining information from the World Robotics Survey and the European Working Conditions Survey. In order to deal with the possible endogeneity of robot deployment, we employ an instrumental variables strategy, using the robot exposure by sector in other developed countries as an instrument. Our results indicate that robotization has a negative impact on the quality of work in the dimension of work intensity and no relevant impact on the domains of physical environment or skills and discretion
Ein bedeutendes Institut
No full textSeit 2015 ist Franz Fischler Präsident des Instituts für Höhere Studien (IHS). Im Interview lässt er die vergangenen Jahre Revue passieren und spricht über die Bedeutung des Instituts für die Gesellschaft.
Franz Fischler has been President of the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) since 2015. In this interview he reviews the past years and talks about the importance of the Institute for society
