Institut für Höhere Studien - Institute for Advanced Studies
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4 Fragen an... Julia Studencki. Thema: Verwaltungs- und Governancestrukturen in der Wissenschaft
No full textIm Interview spricht IHS-Generalsekretärin über ihr erstes halbes Jahr am IHS, die Anforderungen an Governancestrukturen in Forschungseinrichtungen und künftige Pläne am Institut
Mittelfristige IHS-Konjukturprognose 2023–2027
No full textAm 20. Juli präsentierte das Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS) seine mittelfristige Konjunkturprognose.
Die ursprünglich energiepreisgetriebene Rekordinflation und die Verwerfungen in Folge des russischen Angriffskriegs gegen die Ukraine haben zu einer Stagnation der Wirtschaft in Österreich geführt.
Mit dem Auslaufen dieser Effekte dürfte die Wirtschaft wieder auf einen verhaltenen Wachstumskurs einschwenken. Für den Prognosezeitraum 2023 bis 2027 erwartet das IHS eine Zunahme des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts von durchschnittlich 1,2 % pro Jahr. Nach dem energiepreisgetriebenen Anstieg im Vorjahr hat sich der Preisauftrieb seither deutlich verbreitert und dürfte nur langsam zurückgehen. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2023 rechnet das IHS mit einer Inflationsrate von 7,5 %. In den kommenden Jahren lässt der Preisdruck voraussichtlich spürbar nach, sodass die Inflationsrate bis 2027 auf 2,3 % zurückgeht. Ausgehend von 6,5 % im laufenden Jahr dürfte die Arbeitslosenquote bis zum Ende des Prognosezeitraums auf 5,8 % sinken. Die Wirtschaftspolitik sollte auf eine Stärkung des Potenzialwachstums und die Unterstützung der Energiewende ausgerichtet werden.
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Got used to make less: the lasting earnings losses of COVID-19 short-time work
Get PDFThis study is the first to investigate the impact of short-time work (STW) schemes on earnings during the COVID-19 pandemic. STW schemes have been implemented to preserve employee-employer matches, support workers' incomes and uphold consumption. By construction, affected workers suffer temporary earnings losses, yet an important question is whether negative earnings effects of STW persist beyond the STW period or are limited to the STW spell. Using a dynamic difference-in-difference (DiD) identification strategy on administrative data, this study aims to identify any lasting causal STW effects on earnings, accounting for the factors that influence the selection of workers into STW and testing for heterogeneous effects across subgroups of workers. We find lasting earnings losses that persist beyond the actual STW participation. First and foremost, these earnings losses depend on the duration of STW exposure, with greater negative effects especially in the case of long-term or recurring STW spells. In general, lasting earnings losses post STW tend to be more pronounced in white-collar jobs, where women incur larger losses than men. The largest losses, however, are observed among men in blue-collar jobs with long STW spells of more than one year
Österreichische Arbeitsmarktpolitik vor dem Hintergrund von COVID-19-Pandemie und Teuerung: Neue Probleme, alte Lösungen?
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Regime-dependent nowcasting of the Austrian economy
Get PDFWe nowcast and forecast Austrian economic activity, namely real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption and investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency. While nowcasting uses data up to (and including) the quarter to be predicted, forecasting uses only data up to the previous quarter. We use a large number of monthly indicators to construct early estimates of the target variables. For this purpose we use different mixed-frequency models, namely the mixed-frequency vector autoregressive model according to Ghysels (2016) and mixed data sampling approaches, and compare their forecast and nowcast accuracies in terms of the root mean squared error. We also consider traditional benchmark models which rely only on quarterly data. We are particularly interested in whether explicitly considering different regimes improves the nowcast. Thus we examine regime-dependent models, taking into account business cycle regimes (recession/non-recession) or financial/economic uncertainty regimes (high/low uncertainty) driven by global and Austrian economic and financial uncertainty indicators. We find that taking explicit account of regimes clearly improves nowcasting, and different regimes are important for GDP, consumption and investment. While the recession/non-recession regimes seem to be important to nowcast GDP and consumption, high/low global financial uncertainty regimes are important to nowcast investment. Also, some variables seem to be important only in certain regimes, like tourist arrivals in the non-recession regime when nowcasting consumption, while other variables are important in both regimes, like order books in the high and low global financial uncertainty regimes when nowcasting investment. In addition, nowcasting indeed provides a value added to forecasting, and the new information available in the first month seems to be most important. However, sometimes also the forecast performs quite well, and then it mostly comes from a mixed-frequency model. So monthly information seems to be helpful also in forecasting, not only in nowcasting. Finally, we do not find a clear winner among the different mixed-frequency models
Die volkswirtschaftlichen Effekte von Adipositas im Kindesalter
Get PDFIm Jahr 2019/20 war in etwa jedes vierte Kind in Österreich von Übergewicht oder Adipositas betroffen (COSI, 2021). Adipositas steht im Zusammenhang mit einer Fülle an Folgeerkrankungen, einer geringeren Lebenserwartung und reduzierten Lebensqualität sowie mit Einkommensverlusten. Ziel dieser Studie war es, die volkswirtschaftlichen Effekte von Adipositas im Kindes- und Jugendalter für Österreich zu schätzen. Es wurde dabei zwischen direkten medizinischen und indirekten Kosten unterschieden. Intangible Kosten wie psychische Belastungen durch Stigmatisierung und Diskriminierung wurden nicht quantifiziert, da es sich hier per definitionem um Kosten handelt, die schwer in monetäre Werte zu fassen sind. Kosten wurden für das Jahr 2019 berechnet sowie die Summe an Kosten über den gesamten Lebenszyklus – pro Person und als Summe aller Geburtenkohorten der Jahre 2000 bis 2019.
In Austria, nearly every fourth child is affected by overweight or obesity as of 2020. These children are at high risk to continue to be affected by obesity over their lives. Obesity reduces a child’s health-related quality of life, affects a child’s school career – and, with it, their future income – and leads to a variety of diseases and lower life expectancy. This study estimates the economic effects resulting from childhood obesity for Austria. The analysis includes direct medical and indirect costs; costs are calculated for the year 2019 and over the entire life cycle.
The study uses obesity prevalence based on measurement data from the Austrian COSI (2021) study, from Austrian candidates for conscription (2022), as well as the German KIGGS study (2018) for children up to four years. Based on prevalence data and data on relative risks for obesity-associated health problems in children and adults, we estimate population-attributable fractions applied to diagnosis-specific average per-capita health expenditure (excluding long-term care). Indirect costs arise from income losses due to sick leave, disability, and premature mortality, as well as from a proportional income loss associated with the choice of school, the choice of profession and discrimination in the labour market. The life-cycle model includes all secondary diseases in adult life. It also considers a discount rate of 3 percent, obesity-associated mortality, and future increases in health care costs. To estimate medical and indirect costs for all birth cohorts from 2000 to 2019, we use a forecast of obesity prevalence among 20- to 24-year-olds in Austria up to the year 2039. Based on results from international long-term studies, we assume that about half of the 20- to 24-year-old population with obesity has a history of obesity during childhood or adolescence.
The resulting sum of annual costs of childhood obesity is € 12 million in 2019. Average annual costs for a child with obesity are around € 100 higher than for a child without obesity (€ 120 for adolescents). The life-cycle medical costs largely depend on the degree of obesity: for a man with obesity class I, class II, or class III total medical costs amount to around € 21 000, € 44 000, and € 68 000, respectively. For women, the corresponding values are € 21 000, € 32 000, and € 48 000. Total loss of productivity is approx. € 130 000 and € 88 000 for men and women, respectively (assuming a 10 percent penalty on wages). Finally, we estimate that around 95 000 of all children and adolescents in 2019 will enter young adulthood with obesity, which leads to a cash value of € 8.85 billion or an annuity of € 280 million in total costs. In conclusion, this study shines light on the considerable economic burden of childhood obesity in Austria. In addition, children with obesity often deal with a mental burden caused by stigmatisation and discrimination. Public health programs addressing obesity could relieve high costs not only for individuals, but also for society as a whole