Institut für Höhere Studien - Institute for Advanced Studies
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Panel cointegrating polynomial regression analysis and an illustration with the environmental kuznets curve
No full textRezession überwunden, aber weiterhin hohe Inflation. Herbst-Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft 2025–2026
Full text linkEnergy prices, Competitiveness, and Austria’s exports
Full text linkIn 2021 and particularly in 2022, gas prices rose sharply in Europe due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the previous throttling of Russian gas supply to Western Europe. Because of the merit-order system, this also led to an increase in electricity prices in Austria and in many other EU countries. Since Russian pipeline gas must be replaced by more expensive liquefied natural gas and by more volatile electricity from renewables, energy prices in Europe will also in the future remain higher than before 2021 and higher than in other regions, particularly in the US and in Asia. In Austria companies and households are also confronted with rising fees for the gas and the electricity grids. The higher energy costs undermine Austria’s international competitiveness. Simulations with a panel econometric model in this Policy Brief underline that exports of the Austrian manufacturing industries are negatively affected by higher energy prices. Economic policy should support structural change towards new industries. Permanent subsidies are, however, not an economically sustainable option
AI in Demand: How Expertise Shapes its (Early) Impact on Workers
Full text linkWe study how artificial intelligence (AI) affects workers’ earnings and employment stability, combining German job vacancy data with administrative records from 2017–2023. Identification comes from changes in workers’ exposure to local AI skill demand over time, instrumented with national demand trends. We find no meaningful displacement or productivity effects on average, but notable skill heterogeneity: expert workers with deep domain knowledge gain while non-experts often lose, with returns shaped by occupational task structures. We also document AI-driven reinstatement effects toward analytic and interactive tasks that raise earnings. Overall, our results imply distributional concerns but also job-augmenting potential of early AI technologies
Understanding the financing and institutions of VET and lifelong learning—exploration by comparative case analyses
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The AI Evolution in Marketing and Sales: How Social Design Thinking Techniques Can Boost Long-Term AI Strategies in Companies and Regions
No full textProspect theory and asset allocation
Full text linkWe study the asset allocation of an investor with prospect theory (PT) preferences. First, we solve analytically the two-asset problem of the PT investor for one risk-free and one risky asset and find that the reference return and the level of risk aversion or risk seeking (diminishing sensitivity) affect differently less ambitious and more ambitious investors: the less ambitious investor decreases her exposure to the risky asset when increasing her reference return or the level of diminishing sensitivity, while the more ambitious investor increases her exposure to the risky asset when increasing her reference return or the level of diminishing sensitivity. However, both less and more ambitious investors decrease their exposures to the risky asset when increasing their degrees of loss aversion. In a comprehensive sensitivity analysis, we investigate how different aspects of the PT investor’s preferences contribute to her risk taking, performance and happiness. We observe, for instance, that the investor’s happiness decreases with her increasing level of ambition. Second, we perform simulations to examine concrete solutions of the theoretical two-asset problem for different types of the PT investor and for different characteristics of the risky asset and find that the assumption of skewness, as opposed to symmetry, changes the optimal investment in the risky asset. Third, we empirically investigate the performance of a PT portfolio when diversifying among a stock market index, a government bond and gold, in Europe and the US. We focus on investors with PT preferences under different scenarios regarding the reference return and the degree of loss aversion and compare their portfolio performance with the performance of investors under mean–variance (MV), linear loss averse and CVaR preferences. We find that, in the US, PT portfolios significantly outperform MV portfolios (in terms of returns) in most cases
Is football coming out? Anti-gay attitudes, social desirability, and pluralistic ignorance in amateur and professional football
Full text linkPast work consistently points to improved attitudes towards gay athletes and growing support for homosexuality, yet reports of a homophobic climate in amateur and professional football persist. Here, we explore two potential explanations for the prevalence of homophobia in football despite low levels of anti-gay attitudes: social desirability and pluralistic ignorance. We conduct an online survey among a football-affine and socio-demographically diverse sample in the UK. We find that anti-gay attitudes are rare. Importantly, estimates from a list experiment do not differ from the prevalence measured by direct questions, providing no evidence of social desirability. By contrast, second-order beliefs about anti-gay attitudes substantially and consistently exceed attitudes, pointing towards pluralistic ignorance as the most likely explanation. We conclude by emphasizing the need for transparent communication to reduce pluralistic ignorance and correct misperceptions among players, officials and supporters
