JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN
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PENGARUH FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT DAN AFTA TERHADAP KESEMPATAN KERJA SEKTORAL DI ASEAN 5
Full text linkThis study aims to analyze the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) on sectoral employment in ASEAN 5. The analysis focused on five main sectors, namely agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction and service sectors. This paper uses panel data approach with Fixed Effect Model. Variable used include employment as an edogenous variable, while GDP, wages and AFTA as exogenous variables. Cross section data that are used in this study consist of ASEAN 5 countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam with periods of observation as much as 9 years, from 2006 until 2014.The result of this paper that FDI, GDP, wages and AFTA have different impacts in each sector. FDI has positive impact on employment in service sector. GDP has positive impact on employment in manufacturing, construction and service sectors. While GDP in the agricultural and mining sectors has negative impact on employment. The wage has a positive impact on employment in the mining and agricultural sectors. ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) that took place in 2010 has a positive impact on employment in the manufacturing and mining sectors.Foreign Direct Investment is one factor to overcome employment issues in ASEAN 5, especially in service sector. While GDP becomes an important variable in enhancing ASEAN 5 employment in the manufacturing, construction and services. Increasing wages can be applied on agriculture and mining as it has a positive impact on employment. AFTA that has taken place is proper policy for the ASEAN 5 to encourage economic growth in the mining and manufacturing sectors that have an impact on increasing demand of labor in the sector.
THE IMPACT ANALYSIS OF ASEAN-JAPAN COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (AJCEP) FOR TRADE FLOW AND ECONOMIC GROWTH’S CONVERGENCE
Full text link Free Trade Area (FTA) between ASEAN and Japan, which is called ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP), has been established since 2002 as goods and services flow gateway. AJCEP plays an important role to bring the development, economic security, and economic power. It can also boost the economic growth among member of ASEAN-Japan. The objectives of this research were to analyze the factors that can influence the ASEAN-Japan countries import with non-member, to analyze the occurrence of trade creation and trade diversion in trading sector among ASEAN-Japan countries with non-member, and to analyze the occurrence of economic growth\u27s convergence in ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP) not only among ASEAN-Japan countries, but also with non-member trading partners. The Gravity Model was used to analyze import factors and observing the occurrence of trade creation or trade diversion. The GMM model was used to observe the convergence of economic growth. The research are used Panel data methods with periods 2000 until 2013 in 13 countries. The research found that the coefficient values in trade creation and trade diversion dummy were 0.92 and 31.41. The positive value in trade creation and trade diversion indicated the occurrence of trade creation in the import flow among ASEAN-Japan countries and non-member trading partners, as well as finding the convergence of economic growth among ASEAN-Japan countries. The convergence level was of 0.0153417 can be interpreted that the velocity to reach steady state condition was 2.00 percent per year with the assumption of ceteris paribus. The duration to reach convergence condition or half life of convergence was about 34 years. The research found the trade creation from AJCEP agreement and the occurrence of economic growth’s convergence. Based on the result, Indonesian government would likely to make relationships among countries member and non-member to invest in real sector that will boost economic growth in Indonesia. Keywords: ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Growth’s convergence, gravity model, GMM model, trade creation, trade diversion
ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI HARGA DAN INTEGRASI HARGA OLEIN
Full text linkOlein production increased by 107.5 percent from 2002 to 2013. There was a change in consumption patterns where the consumption of olein intended for export has risen from only 39 percent in 2002 to 65 percent in 2013. In the beginning of 2008, olein prices increased due to the global financial crisis. In the end of 2008, olein prices decreased but since then olein prices fluctuations until the end of 2014. Many factors affecting the price fluctuations such as macroeconomic and microeconomic variables. Commodity market participants need to take action in response to price fluctuations by participating in commodity futures trading. Olein futures trading commodity in Indonesia is not well developed. This is indicated by small volumes of the transaction of olein futures contracts in Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) causing market participants to not using ICDX futures prices as a reference. The participants actually use the price of the Rotterdam exchange for their transactions of buying and selling. Therefore, this study aims to analyze factors influencing olein prices and analyze olein prices integration by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. Results showed that exchange rates, interest rates, money supply, CPO prices, and Indonesia\u27s GDP affect olein prices. In addition, there is an integration between the physical prices, futures prices, and world reference prices in the long term. Key words : Factors Affecting Price, Olein, Price Integration, VEC
PERAN INDONESIA DALAM RANTAI NILAI GLOBAL PRODUK ELEKTRONIK
Full text linkGlobalization has transformed the structure of industry into global integration of socalled global value chains (GVCs). Some literatures suggest that electronic industry is known as a successful industry in establishing global value chain. Electronic industry is one of leading cluster in driving economic growth in Indonesia. This study aimed to analyze the role of Indonesia in electronic global value chain according to its share towards global electronic industry, linkages, and value added distribution. An input output analysis by using the Asian International Input Output Table 2005 was employed to analyze the share of each country in electronic global value chain, inter-sector linkages, value added, also output and income multiplier. The result showed that Indonesia had low participation in electronic global value chain. Indonesia’s output share was the lowest among all countries which resulted in low valueadded acquisition. Indonesia played the role as the input user from the various sectors. It is suggested that Indonesia electronic manufacture sector should be integrated with the input supplier sectors. Electronic computing equipment sector can be the main priority in enhancing Indonesia electronic manufacture sector since it has the biggest effect to economic growth. Keywords: electronic, global value chain, Indonesia, input output analysi
FLEKSIBILITAS NILAI TUKAR DAN PENYESUAIAN TRANSAKSI BERJALAN DI INDONESIA: ANALISIS THRESHOLD VAR
Full text linkEstimation study about the relationship between exchange rate flexibility and current account adjustment has been through three stages, the first stage was analysis of correlation among exchange rates variability (proxied by REER and NEER) and exchange rate regimes classification. The second step was estimating the relationship that the former was mentioned with VAR as benchmark model. The third step was applying the nonlinear estimation with Threshold VAR. The results of analysis showed that exchange rate regime classification may not capture actual exchange rate variability and flexibility exchange rate can accelerate current account adjustment in Indonesia if the changes of Indonesia exchange rate less than 27.7059 (low regime) whereas in high regime exchange rate is persistent increasing so that the system between exchange rate and current account become unstable. Bank Indonesia as monetary authorities must keep the changes of exchange rate less than 27.7059, due to exchange rate can affect current account adjustment, so can anticipate if there is current account deficit in Indonesia economy. Keywords : Exchange Rate Flexibility, Current Account Adjustment, Exchange Rate Regime, Classification, Threshold VA
AKSES DAN DAMPAK KREDIT MIKRO TERHADAP PRODUKSI PADI ORGANIK DI KABUPATEN BOGOR
Full text linkThe ultimate problem of organic paddy farm is limited access formal credit due to collateral requirement. Farmers only have access to semi-formal institution like cooperatives and group of farmers (Gapoktan.red) because of simplicity of administration procedure and payment system. The objectives of this study are to analized accessibility of micro-credit to organic paddy farmers in Bogor and its impact to production of organic paddy. With Heckman Sample Selection Model, we found that access of credit influenced negatively by age of farmers, number of household member, membership of farm group, and the acreage of land use. Microcredit give significant impact to production of organic paddy and it is simultaneous with fertilizer and labor. Microcredit that they have taken used to pay labor and also bought the fertilizer. Keywords : access of microcredit, impact of microcredit, production of organic padd
PRODUK EKSPOR PROSPEKTIF INDONESIA KE PERU DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR PENENTU ALIRAN PERDAGANGANNYA KE KAWASAN AMERIKA SELATAN
Full text linkPeru in South America area has potential market for Indonesia’s products and has been established as prospective market. This study is aimed to analyze the performance of bilateral trading between Indonesia and Peru, to analyze the export products prospective for Indonesia-Peru bilateral trading and also the factors affecting its trade flow to South America. The analysis methods used in this research were Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), Intra Industry Trade (IIT) and gravity model. Gravity model used panel data with modification sample cross section data of South America countries (Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Chili, Ecuador, Colombia, Paraguay, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela) from 2000-2013 time series. The result showed that trade balance as indicator of performance in bilateral trading Indonesia-Peru have been increasing. Indonesia’s export product prospective to Peru are HS 4001 (Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha etc), HS 0801 (Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts), HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre, not put for retail sale), and HS 4420 (Wood marquetry & inlaid wood; caskets & cases or cutlery of wood). Only HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre,not put for retail sale) and HS 0801 (Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts) have weak integration. The gravity model with Fixed Effect Model showed that different GDP per capita and trade/GDP have significant positive effect on value export of product prospective. Tariff have significant negative effect for HS 0801 (Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts), HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre,not put for retail sale) dan HS 4420 (Wood marquetry & inlaid wood; caskets & cases or cutlery of wood). Economic distances have significant negative effect exclude HS 4001 (Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha etc). Real exchange rate have significant possitive only for HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre,not put for retail sale), while the others product have not significant effect. Keywords : Indonesia-Peru-South America Trading, RCA, EPD, IIT, Gravity mode
INCOME DISTRIBUTION INEQUALITY IN WEST SUMATERA AND THE RELATED FACTORS
Full text linkCausal relationship between inequality and growth is far from being well understood. In West Sumatera the higher level of growth rate followed by an increasing in Gini ratio or increasing in income inequality. A sharp rise of income inequality has caused discussion about factors affecting inequality. Objectives of this research are to analyze income inequality condition in each Regency/Municipality in West Sumatera and to analyze the factors affecting income inequality. Through the calculation of the Gini ratio, it was found that the highest income distribution inequality in Regency/Municipality level in West Sumatra from 2006 to 2011 are owned by the Mentawai Islands District with an average Gini ratio is 0.311, while the lowest income distribution inequality of the average owned by the Pesisir Selatan District with an average Gini ratio is 0.217. This research is investigated by analyzing a balance panel data with 19 districts from 2006 to 2011. This study found that there are seven variables which can be associated with a movement in income inequality. Income per capita, routine spending for government officials and dummy earthquake have a positive relationship with income distribution inequality. Meanwhile, industrial sector’s share toward Gross Regional Domestic Products (GRDP), government spending for development program, number of workers in industry and population growth have negative impact.Key words: income distribution, inequality, earthquake, west sumater
PERANAN SEKTOR EKONOMI DALAM PENGENTASAN KEMISKINAN DI KALIMANTAN BARAT
Full text linkKalimantan Barat is a province which has the highest poverty rates among other provinces in Kalimantan. Sector’s output growth of the economy affects the redistribution of income and poverty reduction. Increased economic sector output reduce poverty through the distribution of income . Sector development policy needed to boost the economy and poverty alleviation. This study aimed to analyze the relationship between sector’s output growth of the economy and poverty reduction using InputOutput Miyazawa and decomposition of FGT (Foster-Greer-Thorbecke) poverty index. Agricultural sector has an important role in output growth, employment, and household income distribution.The decomposition method showes that direct effect of growth in manufacture alleviates poverty among poor households, and total effect of growth in agricultural sectors(food crops and estate crops) alleviates poverty among poor households in Kalimantan Barat. The main policy implication is agricultural industrialization and human capital of the poor needs to be enhanced by education and training if they are not to be sealed off the industrialization process. Key words: poverty, multiplier analysis, I-O miyazaw
PENGARUH KEMANDIRIAN KEUANGAN DAERAH TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI KABUPATEN/KOTA PROVINSI BANTEN
Full text linkFiscal decentralization aims to improve regional finance independency and reduce the fiscal dependency of central government. However, in practice, there are many areas that still rely on the assistance central finance for their regional development. This research aims to discuss the development of regional finance independency and analyze the influence of regional finance independency on economic growth in Banten Province. This research uses descriptive method and panel data on 6 (six) regencies and cities in Banten Province at 2001-2011. The results showed the significantly positive effect of regional finance independency on economic growth and significantly negative effect of balance fund’s ratio on economic growth. Key words: local revenue, economic growth, panel dat