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Bridging Science and Practice on Multi-Hazard Risk Drivers: Stakeholder Insights from Five Pilot Studies in Europe
Get PDFEffective disaster risk management requires approaches that account for multiple interacting hazards, dynamic vulnerabilities, and institutional complexity. Yet many existing risk assessment methods struggle to reflect how these risks evolve in practice. This paper explores multi-hazard risk dynamics through stakeholder interviews across five European regions (Veneto, Scandinavia, the North Sea, the Danube Region, and the Canary Islands). Stakeholders described how exposure and vulnerability shift over time due to climate change, urban development, and socio-economic dependencies. The interviews highlight governance challenges and the critical role of institutional coordination, as well as synergies and asynergies in DRR measures, where efforts to reduce one risk can unintentionally increase another. By foregrounding real-world experiences across diverse hazard landscapes and sectors, this study offers empirical insights into how multi-hazard risk is perceived and managed. It underscores the need for flexible, context-sensitive strategies that bridge scientific assessment with decision-making on the ground
Topography mediated effect of canopy cover and light intensity explain trait variability among shrub species in Western Himalayan Forest ecosystem
Get PDFThis study examines how topography (elevation and slope aspect) shapes shrub diversity and functional traits in Western Himalayan Forests. We recorded 777 individuals from nine species across 90 plots between 1500–3000 m asl. Shrub density declined significantly with elevation on north-facing slopes, while species richness and diversity peaked at mid-elevations (∼2226 m asl), with higher beta diversity at higher elevations and northern aspects. Six dominant shrub species (Sarcococca saligna, Prinsepia utilis, Berberis aristata, Cotoneaster bacillaris, Rubus ellipticus and Daphne papyraceae) were selected to identify important environmental factor(s) affecting twelve plant functional traits. Trait variation revealed distinct strategies between deciduous and evergreen shrubs. Deciduous species exhibited acquisitive traits, including higher Specific Leaf Area (SLA), Leaf Phosphorus Content (LPC), and Leaf Potassium Content (LKC), while evergreen species showed conservative traits such as higher Leaf Thickness (LT), Leaf Dry Matter Content (LDMC), and Leaf Relative Water Content (LRWC), while evergreen species showed conservative traits (higher LT, LDMC, LRWC), especially at higher elevations, reflecting adaptation to environmental stress. Linear mixed-effects models explained 5–61 % of trait variability through fixed effects (stand canopy cover, light intensity, soil moisture). Structural equation models revealed that deciduous traits were more indirectly shaped via vegetation and soil feedback, while evergreen traits were tightly constrained by topography and stand canopy cover. Environmental predictors explained 63 % of vegetation structure and 50 % of trait variation. Our findings highlight the role of topography and associated environmental variables in shaping shrub communities and highlight the importance of functional trait perspectives for conservation planning in mountain ecosystems
Tree approximation of scenario processes for multistage stochastic optimization: algorithms and fast implementations
No full textFor solving multistage stochastic optimization problems it is essential to develop finite approximations of the stochastic process. While the goal is always to find a finite model which represents a given knowledge about the real data process as accurate as possible, the ways of estimating the discrete approximating model may be quite different: (1) if the stochastic model is known as a solution of a stochastic differential equation, e.g., one may generate the scenario tree directly from the specified model; (2) if a simulation algorithm is available, which allows simulating trajectories from all conditional distributions, a scenario tree can be generated by stochastic approximation; (3) if only some observed trajectories of the scenario process are available, the construction of the approximating process can be based on non-parametric conditional density estimates. We also elaborate on the important concept of distances, which allows us to assess the quality of the approximation. We study these methods and apply them to electricity price data. Our fast implementation ScenTrees.jl including an exhaustive documentation is available for free at GitHub (ScenTrees.jl: https://github.com/aloispichler/ScenTrees.jl, cf. Kirui et al. (J Open Sour Softw 5(46):1912, 2020))
A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage
Get PDFGeologically storing carbon is a key strategy for abating emissions from fossil fuels and durably removing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere 1,2 . However, the storage potential is not unlimited 3,4 . Here we establish a prudent planetary limit of around 1,460 (1,290–2,710) Gt of CO 2 storage through a risk-based, spatially explicit analysis of carbon storage in sedimentary basins. We show that only stringent near-term gross emissions reductions can lower the risk of breaching this limit before the year 2200. Fully using geologic storage for carbon removal caps the possible global temperature reduction to 0.7 °C (0.35–1.2 °C, including storage estimate and climate response uncertainty). The countries most robust to our risk assessment are current large-scale extractors of fossil resources. Treating carbon storage as a limited intergenerational resource has deep implications for national mitigation strategies and policy and requires making explicit decisions on priorities for storage use
Emergy-based sustainability assessment of the rice cropping system under scaled-down intensification: Insights from a case study on South Korea (2003–2021)
No full textRice cropping systems (RCS) have evolved into resource-intensive systems as they prioritized yield maximization to meet growing food demand. In particular, many Asian countries have recently faced increasing pressure to use more intensive RCS due to reductions in paddy area driven by socioeconomic transitions. However, the impact of this shift on the ecological sustainability of RCS remains poorly understood. This study investigated how the emergy input structure and sustainability of RCS changed in response to a rapid reduction in system scale. To this end, an emergy-based multi-step analysis was conducted for South Korea's RCS over the period 2003 to 2021, selected as a representative case. The results revealed that the RCS underwent a two-phase transformation. During Phase I (2003–2013), the emergy required to produce 1 g of rice decreased by 39.4 %, while the emergy sustainability index (ESI) increased by 76.3 %. In contrast, Phase II (2013–2021) was characterized by a 10.4 % decline in the ESI, along with a strong decoupling between total emergy input and value added. This pattern indicated a shift in RCS priorities from improving emergy efficiency and sustainability to emphasizing economic productivity. These findings suggest that although a reduction in the scale of RCS may present opportunities to enhance sustainability, strategic interventions are essential to maintain long-term progress. The insights from this study contribute to a clearer understanding of sustainability trajectories in RCS under socioeconomic transitions and offer guidance for developing proactive strategies in other rice-producing countries likely to face future contractions in RCS scale
Advancing Human Displacement Modeling: A Case Study of the 2022 Summer Floods in Pakistan
Get PDFThe devastating 2022 summer flood in Pakistan displaced about 7 million people in the Sindh province alone. Up to one-third of the country's area, mostly the country's south, was flooded. Effective response to intensifying and compounding hazards requires a better understanding of these processes. We can gain insights if impact assessments include socio-economic components and uncertainties arising from the interactions between impacts. However, the quantitative evidence from impact assessments remains limited and fragmented, due to methodological challenges and data limitations. Using the open-source impact assessment platform CLIMADA, we study to what extent flood-related hazards can be used to quantify displacement outcomes in a data-limited region. Using flood depth, exposed population, and impact functions, we link flood vulnerability to displaced people. This allows us to estimate internal displacement resulting from the flood event, and to further assess how displacement varies across the region. We find that a flood depth threshold of 0.67 m, with a confidence interval (CI) from 0.35 to 1.10 m, provides a best fit to all data from Sindh province. We find a negative correlation between displacement and the degree of urbanization. By testing the performance of our model in explaining differing displacement estimates reported across Pakistan, we show the limitations of existing impact assessment frameworks. We emphasize the importance of estimating potential displacement alongside other impacts to better characterize, communicate, and ultimately mitigate the impacts of flooding hazards
Socio-economic status and occupational mobility of China’s Fishery Population: A quantitative analysis based on social-survey data
Get PDFChina ranks as the first fishery nation globally in terms of its fishery production, with a total production of more than 67 million metric tons in 2022. More than 16 million people work in and earn their livelihoods from fisheries, directly or indirectly. A better understanding of the characteristics of this large group of people could lead to an improved appreciation of the human dimensions of China’s fisheries. In this study, we analyze longitudinal social-survey data from 1989 to 2015 to derive several key indicators representing the socio-economic status of China’s fishery population. We find that, first, the size of the fishery population is shrinking. Second, the average age of the fishery population is increasing but at a slower rate than in the total population. Third, the education levels of the fishery population are rising but remain below those of urban residents. Fourth, the incomes of the fishery population have grown considerably, albeit more slowly than those of the general rural population and the urban population. Fifth, the employment of the fishery population is exhibiting a high degree of dynamism, with high rates of occupational mobility between the fishing sector and other sectors
Soil health contributes to variations in crop production and nitrogen use efficiency
No full textSoil health affects both food production and environmental quality. However, quantifying its impact poses a substantial global challenge due to the scarcity of comprehensive soil health data and the complexity of disentangling its effects from other variables. Here we integrate high-resolution global data on soil, climate and farm management practices to assess the contribution of soil health to agricultural productivity. We show that soil health is responsible for approximately 12% and 22% of global variations in crop production and nitrogen use efficiency, respectively. While the influence of climate on crop yields is comparable to that of soil health, it is substantially overshadowed by the role of agricultural management, which accounts for roughly 70% of the global yield variation. In regions such as China, India and the central United States, the influence of soil health on crop yields and nitrogen use efficiency is less pronounced due to the dominant effects of farming practices, including the intensive use of fertilizers. Enhancing global soil health could increase crop yields by 7.8 Mt while reducing nitrogen surplus by 8.1 Mt worldwide by 2050. It is crucial to achieve global sustainable development through managing soil health beyond traditional agricultural practices and climate adaptation
Optimal control models: exploring the limits of predictive power
No full textThis paper examines the application of optimal control models across disciplines, highlighting both their strengths and limitations. While these models are valuable tools in biological and socio-economic contexts, their use requires careful consideration of inherent constraints. A key advantage of such models is their ability to facilitate structural analysis. The second part of the study focuses on the continuation algorithm and its role in understanding dynamic optimization. Through two examples, the paper illustrates this approach and emphasizes the need for a critical perspective, especially when modeling human behavior and interactions
How Establishing a Marine Protected Area Network has Shaped Community and Citizen Science along California's Coast
No full textCommunity and citizen science (CCS), the involvement of non-professional scientists in research and monitoring, has emerged as a key approach in tackling marine conservation issues. This has been evidenced especially in various monitoring efforts of marine protected areas (MPAs) with increasing involvement of CCS programs in contributing data used by MPAs in their adaptive management processes. Having recently engaged in its decadal management review process, this study focuses on the implementation of California's MPA Network through an examination of the diverse impacts to CCS programs. Through an analysis of survey and interview data provided by leaders representing 12 CCS programs in addition to 13 members of the MPA State Leadership Team, we report on the varied impacts to a diverse set of CCS programs and explore how the relationships between MPAs and CCS in California have evolved over the past 10+ years. We found that regardless of State funding eligibility or receipt to participate in MPA monitoring, all 12 CCS program leaders reported overall increases or growth to their programs across all six focal impact type categories (participants, data, programmatic elements, finances/funding, and staff/partners). Additionally, MPA leaders shared perspectives on the evolving role of CCS, emphasizing the importance of collaboration and data alignment. These findings suggest that continued support for the collaborative MPA-CCS relationships could yield further mutual benefits for both the growing use and utility of CCS and its role in MPA implementation and marine conservation more broadly