IIASA Pure

The overall goal of the project is to demonstrate the practical and theoretical value of combining good ecology, good modeling and good policy analysis in the resolution of resource and environmental problems. There are effective examples of one or even combinations of two of these three, but no example exists of the combination of all three. This goal will be implemented by analyzing specific applied problems, developing a framework for ecological indicators and by initiating concepts of environmental standards

Holling, C.S.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Program for Ecology and 
Environment Project
Holling, C.S.
IIASA Working Paper
WP-73-013
1973 
Holling, C.S. (1973) Program for Ecology and Environment Project. IIASA Working Paper. WP-73-013 Copyright © 1973 by 
the author(s). http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/33/ 
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PROGRAM FOR ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT
PROJECT
C. S. Holling
December 1973 WP-73-13
Working Papers are not intended for
distribution outside of ｉ ｉ ａ ｓ ａ ｾ and
are solely for discussion and infor-
mation purposes. The views expressed
are those of the ｡ ｵ ｴ ｨ ｯ ｲ ｾ and do not
necessarily reflect those of IIASA.
E COL 0 G Y
(E601ogical and Environmental Systems)
Goals
Organization of Research
Specific Program for 1974
1. Applied Projects
1.1 Single-species Management
1.1.1 Budworm
1.1.2 New problem in pest management
1.2 Ecosystem Management
1.2.1 Alpine Areas
1.3 Envirnomental Management
1.3.1 Environmental Pollution Control
2. Conceotual/Methodological Research
2.1 Behavior of Disturbed or Enhanced
Ecological Systems
2.1.1 Resilience and Stability Measures
2.2 Indicators
2.2.1 Ecological Indicators and Evalua-
tion Indices
2.3 Standards
2.3.1 Resilience and Stability in
Evaluating Standards
2.4 Hethodology
2.4.1 Model and Policy Analysis
Table 1.: Matrix ｏ ｲ ｾ ｡ ｮ ｩ ｺ ｡ ｴ ｩ ｯ ｮ of Ecology &
Environment Project & Time of Initia-
tion of Projects to December 1974
Table 2.: Summary of Projects and Personnel,
Ecology and Environment Project
ECO-l
ECO-l
ECO-3
ECO-3
ECO-3
ECO-3
ECO-3
ECO-5
ECO-5
Eco-6
Eco-6
Eco-6
Eco-6
Eco-6
ECO-7
ECO-7
ECO-7
ECO-7
ECO-7
ECO-7
ECO-2
ECO-4
ECO-l
RESEARCHipROGRAM FOR ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT PROJECT *
",)". ,_ _ .... .JI.• ｾ
... .,
- -'- ._-_..-...-.-.. Ｍ ｾ Ｎ ｟ Ｍ Ｎ Ｍ Ｎ Ｍ Ｍ Ｍ Ｍ
Goals
The overall goal of the project is to demonstrate the
practical and theoretical value of combining good ecology,
good modelling and good policy analysis in the resolution of
resource and environmental problems. There are effective
examples ef one or even combinations of two of these three,
but no example exists of the combination of all three.
This goal will be implemented by analyzing specific
applied problems, developing a framework for ecological in-
dicators and by initiating concepts of environmental stan-
dards.
Organization of Research
Five essential criteria are used in the selection of
sUb-projects.
1) Focus on highly specific problems in which, as a
minimum, there is either an existing body of long
statistically valid ecological and environmental data and
partially verified concepts or, failing that, an existing
cooperating institution that is in the process of acquiring
such data and concepts.
2) The problem must be digestible, i.e., theoretically
within the state-of-the-art.
3) The problem must be relevant i.e., having the eco-
logical, economic, physical and social dimensions of present
resource and environmental problems.
ｾ Ｉ The problem must intersect the interests of at least
one other project at IIASA and at least one outside institu-
tion.
5) The implementation must be flexible enough to keep
options open for succeeding steps.
In order to maintain continuity, the short to mid-term
sUb-projects will be developed within three broad applied
areas and four conceptual/methodological ones as shown in
Table 1. The applied projects will be ｵ ｾ ･ ､ to illuminate
the conceptual and methodological research, ｰ ｲ ｯ ､ ｵ ｣ ｩ ｾ ｧ a
matrix ｯ ｲ ｾ ｡ ｮ ｩ ｺ ｡ ｴ ｩ ｯ ｮ for the project similar to IIASA's as a
whole.
* Prepared by the Project Leader
" .
ECO-2
Table L
Matrix Organization of Ecology & Environment Project \
& Time of Initiation of Projects to Dec. 197 11 I
Conceptual, Methodological Areas
. APPLIED
AREAS Behaviour of
EcoL Systems Indicators Standards r1ethodology
,
Single-
Species Sept. 1973 March 1974 -- Dec. 1973
Management
Ecosystem Sept. 1973 Sept. 1974 Feb. 1974 July 1974Management
Environmental
-- -- -- Sept. 1974Management
I
Specific Programme for 1974
Table 2 summarizes the specific projects described below
witt'! emphasis on personnel, and a distinction behrccm the -
stages of planning and implementation. Note, in particular,
that the present ecology group of five scientists will leave
August 1974 and a new group will be recruited, some of whom
must overlap with the existing group.
1. Applied Projects
1.1 Single-Species Management
1.1.1 Bud\'lo'rm
We have now identified the first key project. It rep-
resents a classic problem of pest management, specifically
that of the spruce budworm in the north-temperate forests
of North America. A team of foresters, ecologists, entomol-
ogists and meteorologists have been studying this problem
for approximately thirty years in Canada. Rigorous sampling
proceedures have been used and the data have been well ana-
lyzed using multivariate statistical techniques. A preliminary
computer model has been developed that emphasizes the causa-
tive links in the system and a large scale management pro-
gramme has been in operation that concentrates on insecticide
spraying. The ingredients therefore exist for a good demon-
stration case of broad interest to all countries coping with
serious insect pest problems - good ecological data, a simu-
lation model with a variety of management options, a cooper-
ating NMO institution, and a history of management. Sophisti-
cated model analysis and policy analysis are the missing
pieces that IIASA could add. And this addition presents a
challenge to the methodologists, since the complexity of the
problem is just at the edge of the state-of-the-art of large-
scale optimization techniques.
Project definition, hopefully with institutional commit-
ment, will take place in mid January 1974 in a planning work-
shop involving IIASA's ecology and methodology group, and the
Canadian scientists. The analysis stage is likely to require
model expansion and refinement, stochastic modelling of
weather and application of extended techniques of dynamic
programming. The full programme should be concluded and re-
ports written by ｭ ｩ ､ ｾ ｳ ｵ ｭ ｭ ･ ｲ 1974.
1.1.2-New problem in pest management
As this project evolves, another will be planned to
phase in at its completion. A number of possibilities exist,
but we wish initially to concentrate on a possible project
of pest management involving'a vector-borne disease of man.
. '..... ｾ ,. .
! .'
, ｾＮ ( • ｾｉ
,
Table 2. SUI!lIltary of Projccta and Personnel. Ecology 'and
Environment Project
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lIASA Soientists
Present New Recruits Cooperating
Specific Croup No. or Likely Likely Project Other Cooperating Outoide
General Area Focus Function until Aut;. 74) ｾ ］ ･ ｳ Source Location IIASA Projects ' Insti tutione
I
Single Species Budworm Planning and Jones (Eco.) 0 Methodology Environment Canada .\
Managoment Implemonta tion Rashid (Eco.) Inst. of Reeource - I.. - C.Winkler ｾ ｍ ｯ ｴ ｨ Ｎ EcologY. Canada I
R.l{inkler Meth. fS. U.S. Nat. Res. I
, ounci! Cttee on I
Pest ｾ ｬ ｰ ［ ｴ Ｎ .. j
New Planning Holling (Eco.) 2. An USSR ｡ｮ｡ｬｯｾＸ＿ ,
Problem WHO ,Impler.lento.tion
--
2 tareet Eoo1- . Methodology Imperial Collego (UIe) I｣ｯｵｮｴｾＬ Biomed. Biomedical Institutions in IｕｊＨＧｔＱｾｓｒ ' ｴ｡ｲｾ･ｴ countric3
ｅ ｃ ｏ ｾ Ｚ ｦ ｳ ｴ ･ ｭ Alpine PIan."'ling Holling (Eco.) Water 4 Italian Inotituiions
:r.s..VJa gement Areas 1 Austrian 1MB
Implementation
-
Walters Italy. Ecol. France?
+2 Canada, OEeD water mgmt
.
Sweden, Institute of ｒ ･ ｳ ｯ ｾ ｯ Ｎ
Czech. ECOlOff' Canada
USSR Lake Baikal
Groun i?
Envi:-on;:lental Pollu- Plaruring and
-
Naito Japan Ecol. Induetrial Inst. of Applied
ｬ ｾ ｡ Ｎ Ｂ Ｇ ｬ ｯ Ｓ Ｎ ｾ Ｚ ｮ ･ ｮ ｴ tion/ Implementation Sawaragi Indust. Water Cybernetics, Poland
RCllow-ce Energy Kyoto Univ.,
System Engineering Dept.
+ ?
:Behaviour of ｒ ･ ｾ ｩ ｬ ｩ ･ ｮ ｣ ･ Pl=ine and Holling tEco.) .' all new personnel UrbanJones (Eco.) WaterEcological and Implementation Clark (Eco.)Systems stability Rashid (Eco.)
meacures FierinR" (Water)
ｉ ｮ ｾ ｪ ･ ｡ ｴ ｯ ｲ ｳ Ecol. indo Planning and Clark (Eco.) 1 USSR Ecol. Urban SCOPE, UNEP
- T.;l indices Implementation ｾ ｬ ｡ ｴ ･ ｲ
S<;andardl3 Rosilienco Planning and Fiering Ｈ ｾ ｬ ｡ ｴ ｣ ｲ ｾ ? ? ? Wc.ter SCOPE, IDlEP
and Il:lplcrr.entation Avenhaus (Eng. EnergyStandard3 Hollinll.' (Eco:i
ｬ ｾ ･ ｴ ｨ ｯ ､ ｯ ｬ ＿ ｧ ｹ Optimiza- Planning and ｾ ｾ ｣ ｴ ｨ ｯ ､ ｯ ｬ ｯ ･ ｙ and 0.1 new personnel 1I.ethodology .. I
.-
ion ｾ ｾ ｯ ､ ｵ ｬ ･ ,Implcmentation Ecolol!V Croun
Pl"'oject Ecol. Planning and 1I011ine (Eco.) Felling USA Ecol. IIASA Scientifio External Advisor,y !Direction and Izr.plementation 1973/1974 ? Advioory COlll/llittee I
c.,.,d . Environ. 14/71 COl1llllittee . I
!.\c\·eloTll'lent
I
i
In this way, links could be developed within IIASA between
the ecology, methodology and biomedical projects and ou.tside
IIASA with the World Health Organization. Planning and
recruitment for this project is the responsibility of the
present ecology group with implementation by those who ｲ･ｾ
place this group (Table 2).
:1.2 Ecbsystem Management
.1.2.1 Alpine Areas
The participants of the Ecology Planning Conference
identified a regional problem of ecosystem management of
interest to Italy, France and Austria. It concerns the
problem of development of Alpine Areas and potentially could
be of relevance to all those countries in North America and
Europe with mountain terrain.
There are now two active Alpine research projects in
Austria supported under the Man and the Biosphere Programme.
Four Italian institutions have expressed a desire to be in- .
volved. Moreover, this project could be a modest but useful,
case study for the large scale computer model being developed
Iby the Water Resources Project at IIASA. At the ｭ ｩ ｮ ｩ ｭ ｵ ｾ it
could provide an initial ecological sub-model for that proj-
ect.
Four stages are necessary prior to full scale implemen-
tation of this sUb-project:
a) identification of key Austrian scientists and infor-
mal committment of an Austrian MAE project by March 1974 to
provide data.
b) identification of a sUb-project leader experienced
in modelling, limnology and regional development research
by mid - February 1974 for recruitment by September 1974.
c) brief planning conference with, as a minimum,
scientists from Austria, ｉ ｴ ｡ ｬ ｹ ｾ IIASA and the'sub-project
leader by late March 1974.
d) first workshop session with participating scientists
as soon as IIASA's in-house computing facility is operating,
probably by July 1974.
The ·goal of the workshop will be to develop a first
crude simulation model in order to identify priorities for
research and policy analysis, using techniques that have
been well tested in similar circumstances by the present
ecology group. A team made up of the sUb-project leader
and four resource specialist/programmers will serve as the
temporary staff for this workshop.
If each of these stages proceeds as planned, the formal
project will be implemented fn September 1974 with responsi-
ECO-G
/
I
bility shifting to a group that will replace the present
ecology group (Table 2).
1. 3 Environmental r'1anagement
1.3.1 Environmental Pollution Control
Drs. Sawaragi and Naito of the Dept. of Engineering,
Kyoto University, Japan have been recruited to develop a
systems and control model of environmental pollution. They
will arrive September 1974 and will extend their present
model to include five major themes:
1), renovation of the system of production to minimize
waste,
2) allocation and control of pollution sources,
3) planning and operation of treatment systems,
q) design and control of treatment processes and
5) evaluation of the effect of environmental degradation.
A key cooperating institution is the Institute of Cybernetics,
Warsaw and others will be identified when this sUb-project is
established.
f
2. Conceptual/Methodological Research
The sUb-projects Behavior of Ecological Systems, Indica-
tors and Standards represent the major commitment of the
present ecology group to August 1974. There are four sub-
projects, each of which will be the sUbject of a separate
report.
2.1 Behavior of Disturbed or Enhanced Ecological Systems.
2.1.1 Resilience and Stability Measures
Any policy for management of ecological systems must be
based on an understanding of their response to disturbance.
Examples of the kind mentioned above show that ecological
systems fluctuate widely and are weakly damped. But they
also demonstrate a high, but not infinite resilience i.e.,
a great capacity to absorb change without structural collapse.
A theory, based on sound data and examples, that succeeded
in quantifying relative measures of stability and resilience,
that defined minimum dimensions and that coped with spatial
heterogeneity would provide a strong theoretical base for
a science of environmental nanagement.
The specific research will rely on a set of models
including analytic models now in active use, a complex model
of an ecological process (predator/prey), a complex simula-
tion model of an applied ecosystem problem (budworm in north-
. "
'.. '
\ I
ECO-7
\ .
temperate forests mentioned above) and a land use simulation
model of regional recreational development (related to the
Alpine Area study above). These models will be used to de-
fine ways to collapse state variables, convert them to dimen-
sionless numbers and generate relative indices of stability
and resilience. We will then illuminate this stability and
resilience ｢ ･ ｨ ｡ ｶ ｩ ｾ ｲ by retrospective analysis of well docu-
mented studies of ecological, anthropological, hydrological
and ｴ ｾ ｡ ｮ ｳ ｰ ｯ ｲ ｴ ｡ ｴ ｩ ｯ ｮ systems.
2.2 Indicators
2.2.1 Ecological Indicators and Evaluation Indices
Environmental impact statements, regional or global
monitoring schemes and the development of standards must be
based in part on adequate indicators of the present and fu-
ture state of ecological systems. And yet there is no
general formalism for identifying such indicators and, from
them, evaluation indices. These will be identified using
the analyses in 2.1.1 above, as well as those of the budworm
sUb-project (1.1.1). A part of this activity will be con-
ducted in cooperation with the SCOPE Workshop on Impact
Studies in the Environment (WISE).
I
2.3 Standards
2.3.1 Resilience and Stability in Evaluating
Standards
New constructs are required for measuring the effective-
ness of environmental standards and for formalizing the
economic and social costs of meeting them. These standards
and man's responses to them should be constructed so as to
make the natural behavior of ecological systems work with,
rather than against man's interest. Again the specific
applied projects and the theoretical analyses will provide
the basis for such an analysis.
2.4 Methodology
2.4.1 Model and Policy Analysis
This "final sub-project will concentrate on establishing
a bridge between ecological models and policy analysis. This
will require the development of techniques to analyze and
simplify existing ecological models and to extend optimiza-
tion techniques, like dynamic programming, so that they may
cope with more complex systems. Scientists from both the
Ecology and Methodology Projects are now engaged on both
activities around the focus of the budworm project mentioned
above. As a related activity, the ecolotists have recently
designed and implemented techniques to develop simple func-
tions of key ecological processes that have been shown to
I ECO-lj
have great generality when tested Ｒ ｾ ｡ ｩ ｮ ｳ ｴ real data. There
is the possibility, therefore, of developing a library of
"ecological modules II that can lJe u;;; ed, as hydrologis ts now
ｵｳｾ diffusion equations, as simple but key building ｢ ｬ ｯ ｣ ｾ ｳ
for ecological systems models. A report will be completed
by July 1974 and a conferellce should be initiated in 1975
to establish the protocols for such modules.


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