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Managing Sovereign Climate Risk in Vulnerable Developing Countries: Smart Support Guidance for Donors and Policy Makers
Get PDFDeveloping countries grapple with a critical dilemma: balancing the imperative of development with investing in measures to build resilience against climate risks. Current adaptation efforts are often insufficient due to limited resources and fragmented initiatives, leaving vulnerable countries increasingly exposed to escalating threats. Madagascar serves as a poignant case study, vividly illustrating these challenges.
Hence, there is a pressing need for close collaboration between national governments and international donors to strategically mobilise limited resources for maximal resilience benefits. The Smart Support Guidance offers an analytical framework to demonstrate the benefits of various risk management strategies under a broader macroeconomic context. Integrating Climate Disaster Risk Reduction Measures (CDRM) and Climate Disaster Risk Insurance and Finance (CDRFI) solutions, this guidance facilitates the “optimisation” of investments, the assessment of multi-metric impacts of policies, and the maintenance of a balance between risk reduction, development, and fiscal sustainability.
Our Smart Support framework involves estimating the risk profiles, estimating the governmental financing ability to address disaster damages, and evaluating the policy trade-offs of various adaptation strategies. The risk profile estimation uncovers the significant vulnerabilities of Madagascar to cyclones and surges. Identified in the financing ability analysis, we highlight a large gap between available resources and the need for recovery and reconstruction given the current risk profile. This underscores the necessity for substantial investments in CDRM and CDRFI. To better illustrate the broader development and resilience impacts of CDRM and CDRFI, we developed the macroeconomic model to demonstrate that investments in risk management can bolster GDP growth and stability. Subsidies on risk management measures, backed by international donors, mitigate fiscal vulnerabilities, and fortify resilience.
In conclusion, tailored adaptation strategies, robust stakeholder engagement, and refined economic modelling are paramount. Collaboration between national governments and international donors is vital for constructing climate-resilient futures for vulnerable countries like Madagascar
Assessing the ammonia mitigation potential from the Indian agriculture sector for improving air quality in India
Get PDFAs an agrarian country, India heavily depends on fertilizers for food production to meet consumption demands, which contributes to a significant portion of global ammonia emissions. Ammonia is an essential precursor gas to form secondary PM2.5 by reacting with SO2 and NO2 and degrades air quality significantly. Thus, it is imperative to implement mitigation strategies to reduce ammonia emissions from the agricultural sector for air quality improvement. In this study, we have updated the sub-sectoral agriculture activity data for each state of India, using 2022 as the base year. Ammonia emissions from each sub-sectoral activity for each state were estimated in the GAINS model for baseline and future scenarios under the current policy framework. We estimated the mitigation potential for ammonia emissions in agriculture by applying different alternate control scenarios. Under the current baseline scenario, the ammonia emissions (in Kilotons) from urea application are the highest among all the states, followed by other livestock such as sheep and horses, other cattle (Beef), dairy cattle, poultry, nitrogenous fertilizer use and production, and agricultural waste burning. The major contributor states to annual ammonia emissions (in Kt/yr) from urea application are Uttar Pradesh (625 ), followed by Andhra Pradesh (290.67) and Madhya Pradesh (271.32). The major contributor states to NH3 emissions from livestock sectoral activities (other cattle, dairy cattle, sheep and horses, poultry, etc.) are Uttar Pradesh (827.73) followed by Andhra Pradesh (478.65) and Rajasthan (491.13). The NH3 emissions (kt/y) from nitrogenous fertilizer production and consumption was highest from Uttar Pradesh (23.28), followed by Gujarat (10.86) and Maharashtra (10.44), while the contribution from agriculture waste burning was estimated largely from Uttar Pradesh (61.10), followed by Andhra Pradesh (32.91) and Tamil Nadu (30.04). We consider several strategies, such as deep manure placement, low nitrogen feed, scrubber for livestock housing, urea substitution, neem-coated urea, and biochar additives to reduce NH3 emissions and estimate their mitigation potentials in this work. To date, there are no specific regulations in India targeting agricultural ammonia emissions at the same level as those of other sector pollutants. Therefore, our results will be useful for policymakers for developing state-specific sub-sectoral mitigation strategies to address this critical issue
Plant diversity dynamics over space and time in a warming Arctic
Get PDFThe Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average 1 and plant communities are responding through shifts in species abundance, composition and distribution 2–4 . However, the direction and magnitude of local changes in plant diversity in the Arctic have not been quantified. Using a compilation of 42,234 records of 490 vascular plant species from 2,174 plots across the Arctic, here we quantified temporal changes in species richness and composition through repeat surveys between 1981 and 2022. We also identified the geographical, climatic and biotic drivers behind these changes. We found greater species richness at lower latitudes and warmer sites, but no indication that, on average, species richness had changed directionally over time. However, species turnover was widespread, with 59% of plots gaining and/or losing species. Proportions of species gains and losses were greater where temperatures had increased the most. Shrub expansion, particularly of erect shrubs, was associated with greater species losses and decreasing species richness. Despite changes in plant composition, Arctic plant communities did not become more similar to each other, suggesting no biotic homogenization so far. Overall, Arctic plant communities changed in richness and composition in different directions, with temperature and plant–plant interactions emerging as the main drivers of change. Our findings demonstrate how climate and biotic drivers can act in concert to alter plant composition, which could precede future biodiversity changes that are likely to affect ecosystem function, wildlife habitats and the livelihoods of Arctic peoples 5,6
Tree-Quest: Citizen Science App to Measure Single Tree Attributes - Citizens for Copernicus (C4C)
Get PDFThe 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown to 2030 for women's, children's, and adolescents' health: tracking progress on health and nutrition
No full textCapacity development for locally-led knowledge co-production processes in Real World Labs for managing climate and disaster risk
Get PDFKnowledge co-production processes are increasingly used to promote transdisciplinary collaboration and integration of knowledge across scales to better understand and govern complex sustainability challenges. However, existing literature tends to overlook the capacities and skills required for designing, researching and facilitating such processes, and the empirical evidence base demonstrating their benefits remains narrow. For example, practical guidance and training for locally-led design and implementation of knowledge co-production processes is scarce. In this paper, we explore capacities for enabling such processes, and the skills that underpin them as well as those that emerge from them based on lessons learned from the implementation of the DIRECTED project. The project develops the capacity of practitioners from four regional Real World Labs in Denmark, Italy, Germany, and Austria/Hungary to design, research and facilitate knowledge co-production to address their local and regional disaster risk and climate adaptation-related challenges. The process seeks to support knowledge integration and influence integrated planning, policy and interoperable tool development through transdisciplinary collaboration. The paper puts forward a structure for the four key capacities (collaborative, systems thinking, creative and reflexive capacities) and related skills needed by both Real World Lab practitioner hosts and academic researchers, to enable knowledge co-production, along with findings demonstrating how these have influenced the evolving activities designed by Real World Lab hosts. Reflections are provided on how to inform knowledge co-production applications to better integrate considerations of capacities and skills required by practitioners and academics
Synergistic nature of sustainable development solutions centred on heat stress in the urban system
Get PDFThe increased frequency of extreme weather events – a consequence of both man-made climate and land-use changes – pushes city governments to implement measures to ameliorate the impacts on city inhabitants. While governments are working to develop solutions to address heat, drought, and flooding, these challenges are often tackled separately through differing disciplinary lenses. However, individual measures may either compete with or complement one another; and it is critical to gain a better understanding of this interactions.
In this research, we use systems mapping approach to combine the varying disciplinary perspectives of urban climate measures. We aim to identify critical areas where improved information flows could enhance decision-making and policy integration. Here, we use a systems map to point out how a few active measures can act as leverage to ameliorate heat stress while having synergetic effects on other sustainable development goals and increasing the system's resilience against extreme events. The work is partly based on results of the project Imp_DroP (Impact of longer Drought Periods on Climate in Greater Vienna: appropriate Mitigation measures) and discussions with stakeholders. The system borders are defined as the actual city borders during summer heat and drought condition. The system includes all important geophysical parameters as well as planning solutions in the building sector, traffic planning and urban open space design that are known and discussed to mitigate heat stress.
Important levers driving change are cooler building envelopes, (tree) shade in pedestrian areas, and increasing water-holding capacity, which can contribute to both a reduction in local temperatures and a decrease in the city's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. Both indoor and outdoor thermal comfort are considered, as they are highly connected. Irrigation volumes and anthropogenic heat emissions are tackled as well as competition for public space and roof area.
From a system level perspective, a set of balancing loops could be identified in and across subsystems that can help in understanding and facilitating sustainable urban development. While ‘simple’ technical solutions can be of isolated nature (fixing only one problem and likely causing unintended side effects), other solutions such as increasing the availability of urban open space for pedestrians and vegetation are more difficult to implement, but have a reinforcing character, the potential to solve multiple problems across the system including enabling higher quality urban environments
Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot
Get PDFWith global warming heading for 1.5 °C, understanding the risks of exceeding this threshold is increasingly urgent. Impacts on human and natural systems are expected to increase with further warming and some may be irreversible. Yet impacts under policy-relevant stabilization or overshoot pathways have not been well quantified. Here we report the risks of irreversible impacts on forest ecosystems, such as Amazon forest loss and high-latitude woody encroachment, under three scenarios that explore low levels of exceedance and overshoot beyond 1.5 °C. Long-term forest loss is mitigated by reducing global temperatures below 1.5 °C. The proximity of dieback risk thresholds to the bounds of the Paris Agreement global warming levels underscores the need for urgent action to mitigate climate change—and the risks of irreversible loss of an important ecosystem
Unveiling socio-psychological determinants behind residential treated greywater adoption: Integrating theory of planned behavior and norm activation model
No full textPersistent water scarcity and resource degradation threaten urban water security, driving water utilities to promote alternative sources such as residential treated greywater (RTG) as a sustainable solution. However, public resistance remains the primary barrier to the long-term and widespread implementation of any water reuse initiative. Hence, it is paramount to gain exhaustive insights into the motivations and mechanisms behind voluntary RTG adoption behavior, contributing to devising more impactful strategies for promoting such initiatives. Although environmental psychology has laid a robust groundwork in understanding pro-environmental behaviors and identifying entry points of behavioral intervention, a notable gap persists in RTG research, particularly in the Middle East, such as Iran. Hence, this research sought to explore the psychosocial drivers underlying households' RTG adoption through introducing an innovative theoretical framework that integrates the theory of planned behavior with the norm activation model, further extended by perceived risk and anticipated emotions (guilt and pride). A questionnaire was developed based on an extensive literature review and distributed in Isfahan City via an online self-administered survey, utilizing a blend of convenience sampling and cluster sampling techniques (N = 375). Data analysis was conducted using PLS-SEM with SmartPLS software, revealing that: (1) the framework explained 74.7 % and 73.3 % of the variance in intention and behavior; (2) attitude manifested as the most significant determinant of intention, followed by moral norms, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control (PBC), and perceived risk; and (3) behavior was predicted by intention, perceived risk, and PBC. Beyond its novel theoretical contributions, the findings laid a solid foundation for policies promoting RTG adoption: (1) launching awareness campaigns to raise public knowledge of water scarcity and its associated risks; (2) enhancing individuals' sense of control through financial incentives and education programs; and (3) emphasizing the benefits of RTG adoption and the moral duty to protect water resources
Forest Ecosystems Under Climate Change
Get PDFForest ecosystems are significantly impacted by climate change, particularly through drought and increased weather variability. Forests are characterized by their long-lived vegetation, making it essential to consider climate projections when planning forest management actions—especially those involving the selection of tree species for reforestation and afforestation. In this context, the following pages present two examples: (1) A global estimation of trends in forest biomass change from 2020 to 2100 utilizing the Global Forest Model (G4M, Kindermann et al., Carbon Balance Manag 8: 2, 2013) and (2) an assessment of tree species suitability within the European Alps