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Persistence of Misinformation and Hate Speech Over the Years: the Manchester Arena Bombing
No full textIn the aftermath of the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing, the ensuing debate in the press and on social media underscored terrorism's potential to intensify divisions. This study delves into the social media and press dynamics of rumors following the attack, and into the subsequent discourse on migration policies. We collected a dataset consisting of 3,184 press articles and 89,148 tweets about the Manchester Arena bombing. This research aims to identify prevalent rumors, explore the short- and long-term impacts on user engagement, analyze the sentiment in tweets related to each rumor, and examine perceptions of terrorism threats and migration policies among both the press and X (previously Twitter) users. The study found that X acted as an echo chamber for misinformation, amplifying specific rumors related to the attack, while the press exhibited fact-checking practices and provided nuanced perspectives. Notably, one rumor suggesting the attacker was a refugee gained traction over the years, reflecting an increase in anti-immigrant sentiments. Emotional responses on X ranged from neutral to heightened distress and anger, highlighting the significant impact of social media narratives on public sentiment. The research underscores the polarization of views on social media, influenced by the condensed format of tweets and the rapid production cycle, with X users expressing predominantly very negative attitudes toward immigration. This study emphasizes the critical role of the media in dispelling misinformation and fostering nuanced public understanding in complex sociopolitical contexts
Are we ready to plan for synergies? System Integration Impact Assessment in the Austrian energy system modelling community
No full textPerspectives from Live Cycle Analysis: Hydrogen Production Outlook and Contribution to SDGs
No full textThe transition of the energy system towards more green renewable energy sources is a challenging task, which requires integrated approaches to modeling and management of the energy-agriculture-water-environmental-social (EAWES) nexus security. The transition of the energy sector towards more green renewable energy technologies considers low-carbon hydrogen production and hydrogen-based technologies as potential enablers for the energy sector transition. However, there are ample uncertainties associated with hydrogen production now and in the future. For example, on the side of supply, the hydrogen production remains scarce in the short-term and uncertain in the long term because of the technology infancy, high costs, investments uncertainties. Among the risks associated with green hydrogen production is the potential for water scarcity, which is a considerable natural resource limitation factor. On the side of demand, according to the IEA, the main reasons for the slow uptake of low-carbon hydrogen “include unclear demand signals, financing hurdles, delays to incentives, regulatory uncertainties, licensing and permitting issues and operational challenges. In the chapter we undertake a literature review of the Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) studies on various hydrogen production routes, i.e., those, which already exist and those, which are only in the stage of development. Statistics on the performance of the low-carbon hydrogen technologies is rather limited. Therefore, the LCA based on the existing and on the experimental projects enables to derive conclusions regarding the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts of the hydrogen production and the respective uncertainties of the related LCA indicators. The indicators together with estimated investments and costs can be effectively integrated into model-based EAWES nexus security analysis. Another aim of the chapter is to discuss possible contributions of the low-carbon technologies to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs)
Network centrality drives optimal protection investment against systemic risk propagation in complex systems
No full textThe aim of this study is to investigate the mechanisms underlying systemic risk mitigation in scale-free networks by modeling the roles of memorized capital, social learning, and centrality-based heuristics. The study employs a network-agent dynamic approach to examine how node centrality shapes protection decisions and vulnerability distributions. Using advanced computational methods and interactive simulations, the study systematically tracks key state variables and shows that nodes with higher centrality tend to invest more substantially in protection, indicating a positive relationship between centrality and proactive risk management. These findings provide new insights into risk propagation and highlight that local decision rules may converge to suboptimal equilibria when left uncoordinated. By demonstrating the critical role of strategic collaboration and regulatory oversight, the results outline potential pathways toward enhanced network resilience, offering both theoretical and practical contributions to systemic risk mitigation across interconnected domains
Future heatwave exposure of the European cattle sector
No full textAmong the many climate change impacts on the European cattle sector, heatwaves lead to some of the most profound impacts on the sector. It is therefore of utmost importance to estimate to what extent the European cattle sector can be exposed to heatwaves in the near future. Using outcomes of climate models, we analysed how cattle production systems in the wider European Union (EU) region will be exposed to changes in heatwave exposure under two scenarios. We look at both cattle systems, where animals predominantly graze on outdoor pastures, and those where they are kept indoors without access to the outdoors. We show that 6.2–13.7 million cattle livestock units (or 11.0–21.6% of current cattle in the EU and UK) will experience at least 15 additional heatwave days by 2050. This will affect 4.5–11.6% of cattle grazing outdoors compared with 18.3–+35% of cattle kept indoors without access to outdoor grazing. However, there are considerable differences between different countries in the region, with Southern European countries projected to be the most exposed. Our results therefore indicate, adaptation measures specific to different and diverse livestock system types and climatic regions across Europe are necessary for a more climate robust cattle sector in the EU
Farmers’ adoption of environmental soil management practices across four European regions: willingness to accept analysis
No full textThis study investigates farmers’ willingness to accept (WTA) compensation for adopting soil-friendly management practices across four European countries (Finland, Estonia, Belgium, and Germany). The objective is to understand how socio-demographic factors shape compensation expectations and to provide guidance for designing effective incentive schemes. Using a triple-hurdle model, we estimate farmers’ decisions in three stages: intention to adopt, willingness to adopt if compensated, and the compensation amount required. Results show that compensation schemes should account for heterogeneity in farmers’ expectations. Gender, age, and educational level influence WTA differently across countries: For example, younger farmers in Finland demand higher compensation, whereas in Estonia, Belgium, and Germany, they expect lower compensation. Higher education is generally associated with lower WTA in Estonia, Belgium, and Germany, suggesting that more educated farmers may require smaller financial incentives. Overall, approximately half of the farmers who would not adopt soil management practices without support would do so if adequately compensated, highlighting the importance of well-designed financial incentives to promote sustainable farming
100 m climate and heat stress data up to 2100 for 142 cities around the globe
No full textCities worldwide are increasingly facing the challenges of heat stress, a problem expected to worsen with ongoing climate change. The lack of detailed, city-specific data hinders effective response measures and limits the adaptive capacity of urban populations. In this data descriptor, we introduce a comprehensive database providing climate and heat stress information for 142 cities globally, covering the present and extending projections up to 2100 across three distinct climate scenarios, including two overshoot scenarios. This dataset includes 34 heat stress indicators at a spatial resolution of 100 meters, offering a unique database to identify vulnerable areas and deepen the understanding of urban heat risks. The data is presented through an accessible, user-friendly dashboard, enabling policymakers, researchers, and city planners, as well as non-experts, to easily visualise and interpret the findings, supporting more informed decision-making and urban adaptation strategies
Model linking for low-carbon transitions: Technical and conceptual challenges and best practices
No full textLinking existing models to extend energy system and integrated assessment analysis is an increasingly common practice. Despite this, and unlike in the field of environmental and earth sciences, little attention has so far been paid to the details of it, to the trade-offs involved and the way in which the model linking affects the interpretation of the outcomes of the interlinked model system. Our aim in this paper is to first focus on a set of key technical and methodological problems that are common in model linking and suggest how these could be approached in different model linking contexts. We then further explore how model linking may affect the nature of the knowledge produced, and how this should be considered in the model linking process. Reflecting our literature driven assessment of the issues and possible solutions, we compile “a check list” to assist in the process of decision making for model linking
Emission Scenarios for Europe under the CATALYSE Project: Beyond the Green Deal
No full textThe pursuit of net zero emissions in the European Union can deliver significant human health co-benefits. Mitigation actions reduce emissions of air pollutants that contribute to a range of diseases. The Climate Action To Advance HeaLthY Societies in Europe (CATALYSE) project, funded by Horizon Europe, seeks to quantify these climate and health co-benefits within a European context. This multi-dimensional initiative spans fundamental research to identifying optimal communication channels for information dissemination.
This report documents the approach, methodology, and results of the development of gridded emission scenarios for air pollutants in Europe until 2050 within the CATALYSE project. The main scenarios include a reference baseline (REF), a scenario achieving Green Deal goals (GD), and a Beyond Green Deal scenario that envisages additional behavioral changes to curb emissions (BGD). A fourth scenario “Beyond Green Deal 90” (BGD90), is a variant that introduces further end-of-pipe air pollution control measures. The activity pathways underlying the scenarios are modeled using the PRIMES and CAPRI models, with assumptions defined collaboratively by modelling team experts in the buildings sector (UCL), active mobility (ISGlobal), and food systems (UOX). Although the projections also include energy and industry sectors, the scenario differentiation emphasizes the buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors because of their relevance for health. Air pollutant emissions are calculated using the GAINS model, which combines activity data with information on air pollution control application rates and technology-specific emission factors to determine national-level sectoral emissions. These emissions are then spatially distributed using appropriate proxies to produce gridded outputs for subsequent modelling of health co-benefits within CATALYSE.
The main scenarios indicate emission reduction pathways for CO2 and air pollutants in the EU. Between 2020 and 2050, the REF scenario delivers an emission reduction of 53% for CO2, 61% for PM2.5, 58% for SO2, 55% for NOx, 30% for NMVOC and 9% for NH3. Emissions are further reduced in the GD and BGD scenarios over this time period, notably with CO2 emissions reductions of 91% for both.
Results reveal sector-specific patterns across air pollutants. Changes in residential combustion is a major contributor to reductions in PM2.5 whose sector share of total emissions falls from about 64% in 2020 to 30% in 2050 for the REF, 27% for the GD, and 25% for the BGD. Road transport, meanwhile, drives NOx reductions, with a sector share of total NOx emissions decreasing from about 38% in 2020 to 8% in REF and 2% in the GD and BGD in 2050. Similarly, power plants and industry contribute to reductions in SO2 and while changes in the agricultural sector contribute to the reduction of NH3 emissions. While the main scenarios reduce emissions significantly, the BGD90 scenario variant demonstrates significant remaining technical emissions reduction potential across air pollutants, indicating that deeper emission cuts are technically achievable
Exceeding 1.5 °C requires rethinking accountability in climate policy
No full textA scientific foundation is required to establish nations’ responsibilities in a hotter ‘overshoot’ world. Around ten years after the Paris climate agreement was adopted, the world is again at a crucial moment. In 2015, 195 countries committed to hold global warming “well below 2 °C” and to “pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C” to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system. How to interpret these two temperature levels was ambiguous, but it was clear that both had not yet been reached and were being pursued from below. At the time, pathways to stay below both levels could be modelled3, but much has changed since then