20253 research outputs found
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Broadening climate migration research across impacts, adaptation and mitigation
No full textCurrent climate migration literature focuses on establishing links between climate drivers and migration. However, it often overlooks the broader role that migration plays within the context of climate impacts, adaptation and the connection with mitigation. This Perspective highlights four key research gaps: (1) the effectiveness of migration as an adaptation strategy, (2) how migration interacts with in situ adaptation efforts, (3) migration’s impacts on origin and destination communities and (4) feedback between climate mitigation policies and migration. To address these gaps, we propose solutions grounded in strengthening conceptual frameworks, expanded and harmonized data, and advancing methodological innovation. Together, these efforts can inform policy-making to better protect vulnerable populations, allocate resources more effectively and strengthen resilience and justice
Investments in health and mortality reduction to address population decline
No full textFaced with significant population decline, many governments have turned to pronatalist policies to boost birth rates, even though such approaches are frequently ineffective and potentially infringe on reproductive rights. This study demonstrates that a more effective and immediate policy alternative exists: reducing preventable and treatable mortality. Using United Nations data, we modelled population projections to 2050 in 28 countries and territories, comparing a baseline scenario against two benchmarks: an immediate increase to replacement-level fertility and the reduction of national mortality rates to match the rate of Japan. Our findings show that investing in health is a more effective way to reduce population decline than raising fertility, particularly for countries in eastern and south-eastern Europe. For countries in the World Health Organization European Region that are most affected by population decline, achieving Japanese mortality levels would almost halve population loss, greatly outperforming the reduced decline expected with a replacement fertility approach. We consider that reducing mortality should be a central pillar of a demographic strategy. This approach offers faster demographic returns, aligns with human rights and healthy ageing goals, and provides a stronger return on prior societal investments in education and health. We recommend that policy-makers therefore move towards strengthening health systems, disease prevention and public health interventions. At the same time, they should integrate these measures with broader institutional reforms for a more sustainable response to population change that protects human rights
An improved approach to estimate the natural land carbon sink
No full textThe natural land carbon sink (SLAND) absorbs roughly 25–30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, thus playing a critical role in offsetting climate warming. In the Global Carbon Budget (GCB), SLAND is estimated using model simulations that isolate the carbon response of land to environmental changes (i.e. rising atmospheric CO2, nitrogen deposition, and changes in climate). However, these simulations assume fixed pre-industrial land cover, failing to represent today’s human-altered landscapes. This leads to a systematic overestimation of forest area, and thus CO2 sink strength, in regions heavily altered by human activity. We present a new process-based approach to estimate SLAND using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. Our corrected estimate reduces SLAND by ~20% (0.6 PgC yr-1) over 2015–2024, from 3.00 ± 0.94 to 2.42 ± 0.77 PgC yr-1. We incorporate this new SLAND estimate with emissions from land-use change from bookkeeping models, to estimate a net land sink of 1.19 ± 1.04 PgC yr-1, which aligns closely with atmospheric inversion constraints. This downward revision of SLAND reduces the magnitude of the budget imbalance for 2015–2024, indicating a more consistent partitioning of the global carbon budget
Navigating the winds of change: strategic foresight and the power of weak signals
No full textIn an era of increased complexity, interdependence, uncertainty and rapidly advancing technology, the ability to identify and swiftly adapt to current and future trends is key to progressing sustainability. Intersecting drivers and stressors are converging to destabilize socioecological systems and reshape national, regional and global outlooks. The intersecting and converging crises of the 21st century have exposed the limits of planning that relies too heavily on linear extrapolations from well-known global/mega-trends. This study explores whether a limited number of emerging trends that only manifest as weak signals today serve as central conduits (super-nodes) for amplifying and accelerating systemic disruption. Using an exploratory mixed-methods design, a global Delphi survey (N = 790, 132 countries) generated 1200 horizon-scan items, inductively coded into 29 clusters. Scenario stress-testing distilled the findings into 280 candidate weak signals—ranked by likelihood, impact, and timing—from which 20 were shortlisted and mapped onto a 20 × 20 influence matrix through structured expert debate. Weighted degree centralities and a 10,000-run bootstrap test identified statistically significant hubs. Results suggest that anticipatory governance can be strengthened by prioritizing high-centrality signals and institutionalizing ongoing weak-signal scanning alongside transparent, multi-source decision-making to avoid cascading risks across planetary-health, economic, and technological systems. At the midpoint of a decade dominated by disruption–climate change, pandemic, geopolitical upheaval, widening inequality, war, misinformation and the rapid rise of Artificial Intelligence–we posit that strategic foresight and informed anticipation is a critical imperative in the pursuit of a global common good and a resilient future
From regional imbalances to latecomer advantage: Phosphorus pollution and economic development in the Yangtze economic belt
Full text linkPhosphorus pollution from human activities threatens ecosystems, especially in rapidly developing regions. This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of net anthropogenic phosphorus input (NAPI) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 1980 to 2020, focusing on the balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability. Employing the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) frameworks, the study identifies two key inflection points in the NAPI-GDP per capita relationship, marking shifts in phosphorus input trends. Results indicate that NAPI in the YREB increased significantly from 1980 to 2020, mainly due to fertilizer application (62.36%) and economic growth (77.8%). Regional disparities persist: the eastern region reached its EKC turning point earlier, while the western region benefited a “latecomer advantage,” achieving reductions at a lower economic threshold. By 2020, most YREB regions had crossed their EKC turning points, signaling a transition to coordinated economic and environmental progress. Policies such as the “Ten Water Regulations” significantly reduced phosphorus inputs, particularly in high-pollution areas. Continued investment in sustainable agricultural practices, green technology, and targeted regional strategies is essential to bridge phosphorus management gaps. The findings provide critical insights into phosphorus pollution dynamics in a major economic corridor and demonstrates a replicable framework for integrating environmental considerations into economic planning. These results contribute to developing actionable strategies for cleaner production and long-term sustainability in rapidly developing regions
A necessary diversity of perspectives in decision-making regarding deep seabed mining: implications for science, people, and the environment
Full text linkThe transition from the current fossil fuel-based economy toward one that relies on renewable sources of energy allegedly will require a set of minerals for manufacturing batteries that store this energy and power electric devices. Deep seabed mining (DSM) is an economic activity that has the potential to fill these material requirements as it relies on collecting rich mineral resources from the bottom of the ocean. This activity brings enormous challenges to regulation and potentially irreversible impacts on a large scale. In addition, the seabed is considered a common heritage of humankind, and therefore, questions of distributions of burdens and profits also emerge. We build on the premise of social justice, legitimacy, and participatory processes to discuss six perspectives that should be considered while dealing with DSM. We claim that DSM should be seen through a wicked problem lens, acknowledging the limits of ignorance squared, inside a scientific paradigm open to the possibility of a post-normal science. Participation should center on recognizing plural rationalities, ensuring justice and capabilities, and actively including the global South. We conclude that DSM's legitimacy can be enhanced by following these six perspective guidelines
Dynamics of Expectations, (Dis)satisfaction, and Participation in Changing States of Water Governance Systems
Full text linkAs global water challenges intensify, governance frameworks are undergoing significant transformations, with a growing emphasis on managing water demand and rationalizing supply expectations. The expectations of water actors across diverse contexts and spatial scales shape their satisfaction with water supply and allocation rates, influencing governance outcomes. This dynamic, in turn, impacts their participation and ability to drive governance system reforms and influence overall outcomes.
Adopting a multidisciplinary approach, this study examines the interplay between these elements across various governance models. It highlights the role of exogenous factors—such as water availability, requirements, resources, capabilities, and political, socioeconomic, or psychological parameters—that shape objectives, cognition, decision-making processes, and adaptability.
The research underscores the critical importance of revising expectations to promote satisfaction, thereby fostering greater participation and refining governance outcomes. By exploring how the participation and consent of water demand and supply management actors can strengthen governance systems, this study provides actionable recommendations for fostering collaboration, aligning expectations, and improving satisfaction to support resilient water governance reforms.
Ultimately, this study aims to enhance governance structures in shared water basins affected by fragmented jurisdictional and spatial scales, where differentiated political-administrative mechanisms manage water resources, including supply and demand
Implications of Scientists’ Perceptions of Climate Change Narratives for Public Engagement
No full textThis study explores scientists’ perceptions regarding climate change narratives on social media and investigates how these perceptions can inform policy development, particularly in the context of public engagement and co-production for climate change adaptation. Through a survey of forty climate change scientists, we analyzed the agreement with various climate change-related statements from social media, focusing on the impact of demographic factors such as education, age, and self-perceived expertise. The findings reveal significant differences in agreement with policy and science-based narratives between younger and older scientists, as well as between those with different educational backgrounds. Younger scientists were more likely to question anthropogenic climate change, while older scientists demonstrated higher agreement with science and policy narratives. Additionally, scientists with greater self-reported expertise were more supportive of policies addressing climate change and more critical of misinformation and conspiracy theories.
The research results provide valuable guidance for designing targeted communication strategies that leverage the expertise of the scientific community. The study also highlights the role of scientists in shaping public engagement and co-production in climate change adaptation policies, emphasizing the potential for public-private partnerships to address misinformation and improve public trust in climate science. Our results highlight that effective policy instruments, such as regulations, financial incentives, and data-sharing platforms, can benefit from incorporating scientists’ views on the credibility of climate change narratives, ultimately fostering stronger citizen engagement in climate adaptation efforts
Breathing Clean Air, Remembering Better: A Cross-Regional Study of Air Quality and Episodic Memory in European Older Adults
Full text linkAir quality is a critical environmental concern that poses significant health risks to populations worldwide. Therefore, the impact of air pollution on the cognitive health of older adults has gained attention as an urgent global concern. This study addresses a critical research gap by investigating the association between air pollution, specifically particulate matter PM10 and PM2.5, and cognitive functioning in older adults across various European regions.
Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), a comprehensive panel study on health and aging as well as data from the European Environmental Agency (EEA) developed as part of EEA’s Air Quality Health Risk Assessments, this research employs multilevel modeling to explore the consequences of varying air quality on cognitive functioning such as episodic memory or verbal fluency. Older adults are particularly vulnerable subpopulations, and with their increasing representation in populations, understanding the factors influencing their cognitive health has never been more pertinent.
The study demonstrates that while individual factors (e.g. as education) and contextual factors, such as societal development and equality, are recognized as significant for episodic memory, the role of environmental factors remains underexplored. This research addresses this gap by examining the impact of air pollution on cognitive health, with a specific focus on how its effects vary by education. Our findings indicate that exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 significantly impairs cognitive performance in older adults. Additionally, the results highlight a pronounced educational gradient in the impact of pollution on cognitive health, particularly among women at advanced ages, whereas this pattern is not observed among men.
This study provides critical evidence for shaping public health policies aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of air pollution on cognitive well-being in aging populations. Addressing the cognitive consequences of air pollution is crucial for supporting healthy aging and improving quality of life for older adults across diverse contexts, including European populations
Citizen science data, marine plastics, and SDG monitoring: How to build trust in citizen science data and methodologies among diverse actors with varying needs and motivations?
Full text linkThe accumulation of plastic litter in marine environments presents a major environmental challenge to sustainability and is central to the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the vast size of oceans and the widespread nature of marine plastic litter make its monitoring difficult. Citizen science offers a promising solution, providing valuable data for SDG monitoring and reporting, however, there has been no evidence of its use to date. In this presentation, we share how Ghana became the first country to integrate citizen science data into their official statistics and the official monitoring and reporting of SDG indicator 14.1.1b for marine plastic litter. This effort also helped to bridge local, community level data collection with national and global monitoring and policy agendas, aligning with the SDG framework. The data have already contributed to Ghana's Voluntary National Review and been reported in the UN SDG Global Database, helping to inform national policies.
In this presentation, we will focus on the process of validating citizen science data and integrating it into official monitoring and reporting, involving key stakeholders at local, national, and global levels, such as government agencies, the UN, civil society organizations, citizen science networks, and academia. This approach offers a model for other countries and citizen science initiatives interested in adopting similar methods for official monitoring and policymaking. A central theme will be how citizen science projects can be designed to foster collaboration and trust among diverse stakeholders, including governments, UN bodies, and local communities. We will highlight our success and lessons learnt, and showcase how knowledge production through citizen science can strengthen sustainability efforts, influence effective policy, and highlight the value of participatory sciences