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Delineating the contours of citizen science: Development of the ECSA characteristics of citizen science
No full textBackground Citizen science is increasingly recognized as a valuable scientific approach across disciplines, contexts, and research areas. However, its rapid expansion and diverse methodologies make it challenging to establish a single definition or universal criteria for what constitutes citizen science. This paper introduces the ECSA Characteristics of Citizen Science , offering a nuanced exploration of the field to support stakeholders, including policymakers and research funders, in understanding and applying citizen science effectively. Methods We developed the ECSA Characteristics through a vignette study, a survey method that captures diverse perspectives on complex topics. We then reviewed the ECSA 10 Principles of Citizen Science, a broad framework for best practices in citizen science, to identify its gaps and limitations, showing how the ECSA Characteristics can help address them. Results The results highlight the disciplinary distinctions as well as ambiguities surrounding various citizen science practices. Two challenges exist when defining citizen science. A very strict definition could exclude valuable practices, hindering innovation and discouraging public participation. Conversely, a loose definition might make it difficult for specific audiences to apply it effectively in their own contexts. Therefore, it is beneficial to adopt an inclusive approach and language that allows the audience to define its own criteria depending on its needs, intended use and specific circumstances. Conclusions: The ECSA Characteristics were developed in a spirit of openness; identifying areas with diverse and even conflicting views was central to this practice. We recommend their use as a whole set and contend that no one area or characteristic is more important than the other. They should be considered as a toolkit with examples that can guide efforts towards defining citizen science for a specific context and purpose. They are built on the ECSA 10 Principles, addressing some of their gaps and limitations, while at the same time acknowledging the need to update and improve the 10 Principles based on developments in the field
Quantifying the potential of energy communities in renewable electricity generation in The Netherlands
No full textEnergy communities (ECs) are seen as a promising concept towards a just energy transition. They can act as a catalyst for social tipping points and accelerate the shift to renewable energy while keeping benefits to local communities. However, no quantitative assessment of ECs' role in future energy system configurations exists. This study fills this gap by quantifying the potential impact of ECs in the Netherlands from 2025 to 2050.
We do this by developing a theoretically and empirically grounded agent-based model (BENCH-EC) to explore the formation and development of ECs over time and space. The model benefits from established theoretical frameworks on individual and collective decision-making for EC participation and formation and is calibrated using historical data. A set of scenarios is designed to evaluate various policies and assess the potential uptake and impacts of ECs over time.
Our findings show that the potential for ECs is large with over 40 % of the households involved and up to 38 GW of installed capacity of renewables. However, this strongly depends on the chosen scenarios and requires radical breakthroughs and transition processes. The calibrated baseline scenario results in 10 % of the households involved, and 4 GW installed capacity.
This research poses a novel model framework and area of quantitative projections and highlights how exploring different scenarios can pinpoint key tradeoffs in locality and inclusivity. Furthermore, it shows how policies require a combination of increased professional capacity and social learning to harvest the interaction effects between those
Beyond Tires: 45 Years of Rubber Flows and Stocks in China (1978–2022)
No full textRubber is a long-lived polymer essential to modern economies, but existing assessments focus mainly on tires. As a result, nontire uses such as footwear, gloves, seals, and construction materials remain poorly quantified, leaving a critical gap in understanding their growing contributions to resource demand, stock accumulation, and waste generation. Here, we develop a 45 year dynamic material flow analysis (1978 to 2022) of rubber in China that covers 12 virgin rubber types, 7 product categories, 8 application sectors, and 7 end-of-life pathways. The model also accounts for fillers, chemical additives, and microrubber particle releases during use. Results show by 2022, nontire products reached 22.5 Mt·yr-1 (67% of total consumption), driving rapid growth in special use synthetic rubbers (SSR) and thermoplastic elastomers (TPE). In-use rubber stocks in nontransportation sectors accumulated to 156.2 Mt (89% of the national total), indicating substantial future waste streams. Yet, only 27% of recycled rubber came from nontire products, reflecting persistent barriers in collection, sorting, and processing. These results demonstrate the growing significance of nontire uses and underscore the need for upstream material innovation, clearer classification and statistics, and downstream sector-specific waste management to close rubber loops and reduce environmental pressures
Evolution of Near‐Term Atmospheric Methane and Associated Temperature Response Under the Global Methane Pledge: Insights From an Earth System Model
No full textMethane is a powerful greenhouse gas with a shorter lifetime than carbon dioxide (CO2), making it an important target for near-term climate action. The Global Methane Pledge (GMP) aims to cut anthropogenic methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. Using an Earth system model with interactive CH4 sources and sinks, we assess the Pledge's impact through 2050. Results show that current GMP commitments deliver only a 10% cut by 2030—well below the target. Only the maximum technically feasible reduction (MTFR) pathway can achieve the 30% goal. By 2050, current GMP commitments lowers methane concentrations by 3% relative to 2025, while MTFR achieves 8%. Both pathways slow warming slightly, avoiding about 0.1°C of global temperature rise, with the Arctic seeing the greatest benefits (up to 2°C less warming). Without wider participation, the GMP with current signatories will fall short of its targets and Paris Agreement goals
National climate change impact assessments underestimate the potential of autonomous adaptation
No full textCentral Europe is projected to lose up to 25% of its crop productivity by 2050 because of climate change, posing significant challenges to agricultural systems and food security. Effective adaptation strategies must consider not only domestic impacts but also global climate effects, including international trade dynamics. We performed a multilevel analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture, using the Czech Republic, a landlocked, crop production-based economy with an open market, as a case study. We integrated the global biosphere management model (GLOBIOM) with the gridded global crop model EPIC-IIASA. Climate impacts were projected with five global circulation models under three climate scenarios, with and without CO 2 fertilization, and applied in national, EU-regional, and global productivity change scenarios. The results show that national-only assessments underestimate both risks and opportunities: production is projected to decline by up to 9% when global interactions are excluded but to increase by up to 8% when trade and market effects are included. Autonomous adaptation mechanisms, such as cropland reallocation, shifts in management intensity, and trade adjustments, buffer biophysical yield losses and improve economic outcomes. Neglecting global interactions in national climate change assessments increases the risk of maladaptation and policy inefficiencies. The incorporation of international market linkages enhances the ability to design robust adaptation strategies, enabling countries such as the Czech Republic to maximize resilience while minimizing environmental and socioeconomic trade-offs
Climate justice orientation is linked to preferences for decarbonisation policy design
No full textPolicy acceptance is one of the biggest hurdles to climate action and is heavily driven by people’s perceptions of fairness. Here we investigate which distributive justice principles people prefer and whether these distributive preferences are linked to policy preferences along three policy characteristics: stringency, redistribution, and instrument type. Using an online survey experiment ( N = 2, 230), we assess agreement with four justice principles relevant to the decarbonisation context - equal outcomes, sufficientarianism, limitarianism, and utilitarianism - and identify groups with distinct justice orientations. Using data from two choice experiments, we show that climate justice orientation is associated with distinct policy preferences, with most individuals supporting a combination of principles and being sensitive to redistribution in policy design. This study provides further evidence on the widely noted observation that justice is a key aspect in the public’s policy assessment. We suggest this justice orientation should be considered in both policymaking and policy-driven research
Operationalising Systemic Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment: Lessons from the MYRIAD-EU Framework
No full textMulti-hazard and multi-risk contexts are increasingly recognised as central to disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation. While there is a recognised need to move beyond single-hazard and single-sector approaches, practical frameworks for systemic multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment remain scarce. In response, the Horizon 2020 MYRIAD-EU project developed a conceptual framework grounded in systemic risk research and structured around a six-step iterative process. This paper critically reflects on its implementation across five European pilot regions . Using project deliverables, a survey, and a focus group, we assess the framework’s strengths and limitations, and distil lessons learned from both its development and its practical application. These lessons learned are that the framework provides a valuable roadmap for structuring complexity, fostering dialogue with stakeholders, and distinguishing direct from indirect risks. However, challenges remain regarding data, capacity, tool integration, and communication. We conclude with recommendations for improving usability, institutionalisation, and long-term uptake
The long and winding road of climate-resilient development: a case study–driven analysis of shocks, policy strategies, and individual reactions in Austria
No full textOngoing and future climate change impacts call for climate-resilient development that integrates adaptive and mitigative approaches. Climatic and non-climatic shocks, which are rare and disruptive events, might promote transformative changes and effectively improve climate resilience. Following the IPCC’s concept of Climate Resilient Development Pathways (CRDPs), we use document analysis and semi-structured interviews with n = 41 stakeholders and n = 46 affected individuals to analyse three case studies in Austria: residential relocation after a flood, agricultural water management during a multi-seasonal drought, and tourism investments during the COVID-19 pandemic. The case studies track policy strategies and individual reactions across three distinct phases: strategy development prior to the shock, strategy application during the shock, and strategy impact following the shock. The shocks revealed that the existing policy strategies may fix or at least alleviate the policy problems in the short term but do not catalyse the entry into CRDPs. Several policy strategies were adapted and implemented to support affected individuals but are not transformed by the shocks. The policy strategies mostly fail to promote climate resilience because of disconnected governance levels, fragmented sectoral perspectives, and a lack of horizontal policy coordination. If individuals realise measures that are effective for both climate change adaptation and mitigation, they do so on their own accord and are not triggered by specific policy instruments. Shocks do not emerge as distinct milestones on CRDPs. Future climate-resilient policy strategies should include binding regulations, regional differentiation, and flexibility for individual needs
Advancing representations of equity and justice in climate mitigation futures
No full textIn this work, we conduct a narrative review of pressing equity and justice issues within global modelled scenarios and propose a new research agenda to strengthen their consideration in future model developments and applications. We begin by introducing a typology of equity and justice limitations in climate mitigation scenarios, distinguishing among structural, methodological, and epistemological issues that shape what integrated assessment models (IAMs) can reveal at policy-relevant scales. Reflecting on these concerns, we develop a research agenda that describes new avenues of work and draws together distinct emerging initiatives, ranging from incremental improvements to structural reforms and alternative participatory approaches. Drawing on reflexive insights from integrated assessment practitioners, this agenda prioritizes embedding equity principles directly into scenario design through differentiated effort sharing and finance flows, developing new frameworks that incorporate sufficiency and demand transformations while protecting decent living, and establishing genuine co-production with underrepresented communities beyond mere consultation. Underlying this research agenda is a recognition that modeling communities must engage more critically with the implicit assumptions in scenario and model design and use that have equity and justice implications. Achieving equitable climate futures will require transformative actions that integrate diverse justice concerns, advance sustainable development, and confront systemic inequities across both human and ecological dimensions. Although models will never capture all these aspects, these can be significantly enhanced to support more informed discussion and practical application. Our contribution proposes a way forward to achieving this goal
Maritime sector pathways toward net-zero emissions within global energy scenarios
No full textThe maritime sector’s transition toward decarbonization cannot occur in isolation, rather it will be tied to broader transformations in energy, economic, and societal systems. Yet, most existing studies often overlook this integrated perspective, focusing primarily on sector-specific strategies without considering broader societal changes and energy availability on a global scale. To address this gap, this study integrates the MariTeam ship emission model into the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment framework. Through this approach, we assess how climate scenarios may influence the maritime sector’s trajectory toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, in line with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) targets. Our findings indicate that action before 2030 is crucial and it can be achieved through combining four key solutions: improvements in energy efficiency, biofuels, liquefied hydrogen, and ammonia. Furthermore, the results suggest that the maritime sector could have access to enough renewables to achieve substantial emissions reductions with increase in final product costs ranging from 2 to 30% (interquartile range) with variations across products and regions. On average, cost increases are estimated at 10.2% for Global North countries and 13.3% for Global South countries. This analysis highlights the urgency and scale of transformation required for the maritime industry to meet the IMO’s net-zero ambitions and align with broader global sustainability goals