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A Method for Determining the Affected Areas of High-Alpine Mountain Trails
No full textHigh-mountain areas with sensitive ecosystems are experiencing a steady increase in visitation, with visitors progressively moving outside designated trails, generating pressures on the natural environment. In extensive areas with numerous access points, it is difficult to monitor visitors’ movement and resulting impacts. This article describes a method for combining various data sources and approaches to determine affected areas, including their locations and extent. The method combines (1) field-mapping, (2) remote-sensing data display analysis, and (3) processing of publicly available GNSS tracks from sports applications, using 46 test plots along a selected trail to Mount Triglav in Slovenia. Affected-area surfaces and their spatial overlap were compared across the three approaches. The usefulness of remote-sensing displays and GNSS tracks for determining and predicting affected areas was assessed by reference to field measurements. A linear regression model showed that the display-analysis approach can explain 52.7% of the variability in field-mapping approach, while GNSS tracks do not provide enough information nor the accuracy comparable to field surveys. This study can help other researchers and nature-protection managers in selecting most suitable data derived from non-traditional sources to improve delineation of hiking trails and estimation of potential pressures on fragile environments
The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory
No full textEarth’s climate is now departing from the stable conditions that supported human civilization for millennia. Crossing critical temperature thresholds may trigger self-reinforcing feedbacks and tipping dynamics that amplify warming and destabilize distant Earth system components. Uncertain tipping thresholds make precaution essential, as crossing them could commit the planet to a hothouse trajectory with long-lasting and potentially irreversible consequences
Introduction to Food Security and Sustainability: Knowledge, Communication, Politics
No full textThe Task Force on Environment, Sustainability and Climate (TFESC) of Academia Europaea investigates ways of enhancing global science policy communication on the topic of food security and sustainability. This Focus reports the initial outcome of this investigation in the form of three articles. First, given the complexity of the link between food security and sustainability, and in particular the two-way relation between the impact of food production on sustainability, on the one side, and of ecological degradation on food security, on the other, we explored the ways in which new Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) can provide more comprehensive knowledge on the question. Second, even though knowledge and awareness of the link between food security and sustainability have grown, this has by and large not yet translated into significant transformations of attitudes and actions by consumers. In this light, we analysed the implications for communication strategies. Acknowledging the necessity of global coordinated action, third, we analysed the experience of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is often hailed as a model for a global science–policy interface that provides the necessary link between producers of relevant scholarly knowledge and office-holding policymakers. This introduction explains the background to the TFESC investigation and outlines the reasoning in the three following articles
Water, land, materials, and emissions for providing decent living standards around the world
No full textThe safe and just space for humanity is a vision for a sustainable economy, where all people have decent access to services so that social requirements are met (floor), and the use of natural resources does not drive critical Earth system processes beyond Holocene conditions (ceiling). Using the concept of decent living standards (DLS) to quantify the resource implications of social requirements (floor) globally, we estimate the average in-use stocks, as well as associated annual natural resource use and related greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) that are required to provide a DLS in 176 countries. Our results suggest that the per capita resources and emissions associated with a DLS differ considerably between countries, depending on their socioeconomic and technological context. With renewable energies, a reduction in meat consumption and active mobility (efficient scenario), the following average per capita DLS impacts results: materials: 2–5 t/(cap*yr), GHG emissions: 1–4 t CO2 eq./(cap*yr), land occupation: 1424–6615 m2/cap, and water use: 98–328 m3 /(cap*yr). The in-use stocks in the form of materials required to provide a DLS range from 26 to 29 t/cap. Closing the current DLS gap globally in the most efficient form requires resources equivalent to 7 % of global materials use, 1 % of GHG emissions, 2 % of land occupation, and 2 % of water consumption in 2015
Why citizen science is now essential for official statistics
No full textThe loss of major health surveys once backed by the United States Agency for International Development and proposed cuts to environmental programs threaten the tracking of sustainable development. Citizen science can and should be central to building stronger, more resilient data systems
Dynamic trajectories and maturity of farmer collaboration for biodiversity sensitive farming – Insights from the FRAMEwork Farmer Clusters
No full textCONTEXT
Building on the Farmer Cluster approach, which has evolved over the past decade in England to address ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss at the landscape scale, FRAMEwork (Farmer clusters for Realising Agrobiodiversity Management across Ecosystems), a Horizon 2020 project, established a network of eleven Farmer Clusters across Europe.
OBJECTIVE
To test the effectiveness of the FRAMEwork Farmer Clusters, a new level of technological and scientific support was offered to the clusters providing opportunities for collaboration, co-production of knowledge, co-innovation, peer-to-peer learning, and monitoring.
METHODS
We provide an overview of the eleven clusters and an in-depth comparative multiple case study analysis to understand the dynamic trajectories and levels of maturity shaping the development and outcomes of each of the Farmer Clusters.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
We identified five formative dimensions – governance, leadership, facilitation, group characteristics and context – all of which are interdependent and dynamic, affecting the functioning of the Farmer Clusters, and leading to different levels of maturity. Comparing the situation of each cluster regarding the five dimensions and the level of maturity, we found that the clusters started in distinct contexts with diverse initial conditions across Europe – from favourable to unfavourable. This led to different dynamic trajectories on a pathway to biodiversity sensitive farming.
SIGNIFICANCE
The maturity assessment matrix offers a valuable tool for Farmer Clusters to reflect on their progress and capacity in achieving their goals, guiding future efforts for effective cluster management
Optimal Control Problems Under Risk and Uncertainty
No full textThe chapter reflects new scientific results in the field of optimal control of dynamic stochastic systems described by stochastic differential equations. A Markov process or a Markov field with values in Euclidean or Hilbert space are considered as control objects. The central problem of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty is the construction of effective (adequate) risk assessments and finding optimal strategies when solving current problems in economics, technology, biology, financial and actuarial mathematics, and many other areas of human activity. A range of applied problems that arise in this case are considered
Integrated Solutions to Food–Energy–Water–Environmental NEXUS Security Modeling and Management: Robust Downscaling and Models’ Linkage Procedures
No full textThe chapter makes an overview of advanced systems analysis methods, models and modeling tools being developed at IIASA and within NASU (National Academy of Sciences, Ukraine) and IIASA joint project “Integrated modeling for robust management of food–energy–water–social–environmental nexus security and sustainable development”. The chapter discusses the emergence of systemic risks in interdependent FEWE systems and the need for two types of coherent decisions, the ex-ante and the ex-post, to manage the risks. Often, the linkage of systems and models operating at different resolutions is achieved through rescaling (down- and up-scaling) procedures based on some optimizations criteria, e.g., cross-entropy principles. The main aim of disaggregation (down-scaling) and aggregation (up-scaling) techniques is to narrow the spatio-temporal mismatch between scenarios, models outputs, available data, decisions and the scales required for the policy analysis and implementation. The cross-entropy approach combines the available samples of real observations in the locations with other “prior” hard and soft data (expert opinion, scenarios), pseudo-sampling models, evidences on the related variables that exist in the form of equations and constraints, e.g., interdependent observable, partially observable or indirectly observable and non-observable variables on all scales. Approaches to down-scaling in the presence of uncertain priors are outline. The approaches are being further developed at IIASA and the NASU-IIASA joint project. The linkage of distributed sectoral and regional optimization models enable to establish relationships and dialogues between separate models of FEWE systems for the analysis of coordinated solutions without requiring to share or reveal systems-specific information, i.e., under asymmetric information (ASI). The problem is illustrated with an example of linking sectoral and/or regional linear programming models into a cross-sectoral integrated model in the presence of joint constraints; and with an example of linking models of individual producers emitting GHGs (emitting entities or parties) into a prototype model of an emission trading market when information about parties may not be available and joint safety constraints on emissions (when individual parties’ emissions are uncertain) have to be fulfilled. The linkage methods derive solutions in a decentralized manner without revealing information of the parties. The outlined methods and tools pursue the goal to develop and implement advanced systems analysis and integrated modeling approaches allowing joint planning of FEWE sectors under asymmetric information and uncertainties about the sectoral models. Special attention requires proper spatially explicit representation and treatment of uncertainties because the linkage in combination with on-going deregulation processes may create interdependent collective systemic risks of high consequences. Explicit modeling of linkages allows evaluation and treatment of such “insensible” risks under standard independent planning of sectors. Therefore, the models and methods aim for systems analysis of FEWE nexus security under exogenous risks and risks affected (intentionally and unintentionally) by decisions of various agents. The methods and tools involve the concept of robustness and robust solutions which are in a sense optimal for any scenario of potential uncertainties
Modern Challenges of Planning and Modeling the Post-war Reconstruction of Ukraine's Agriculture Based on the UN Integrated Human Rights Approach
No full textThe paper addresses critical issues in planning and modeling the post-war reconstruction of agriculture in Ukraine. It emphasizes the necessity to integrate human rights-based approach (HRBA) as outlined in the UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework (UNSDCF), aiming to enhance sustainable development in Ukrain’s agriculture. The authors review national model design for sustainable agricultural and rural development, developed jointly by the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis and suggest to develop a robust framework to optimize agricultural resource allocation under the constraints imposed by war-related impacts and European integration. Key challenges include discriminatory land market conditions, insufficient government support for smallholders, and issues related to war-contaminated lands. The study emphasizes incorporating HRBA into national model to ensure equitable resource distribution, sustainable land use, and long-term agricultural recovery. This work contributes to the development of resilient agricultural policies aligned with sustainable development goals (SDGs), ensuring socio-economic stability and food security in the evolving landscape of Ukrain’s agriculture