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Beyond Species Richness for Biological Conservation
Get PDFRecent global policy developments have highlighted the need for straightforward, robust, and meaningful biodiversity metrics. However, much of conservation science is dominated by the use of a single metric, species richness, despite several known limitations. Here, we review and synthesize why species richness (i.e., the number of species in a local area) is a poor metric for a variety of topical‐ and policy‐relevant conservation problems. We identify the following three key issues: (1) increasing evidence emphasizes that species richness is often not a robust metric for identifying biodiversity change, (2) species richness ignores species identity and so may often not reflect impacts on species of concern, and (3) species richness does not provide information needed on the persistence of biodiversity or the provision of ecosystem services. We highlight the unappreciated practical outcomes of these limitations with examples from three ongoing conservation debates: whether local biodiversity is declining, how habitat fragmentation affects biodiversity, and the extent to which land sharing or sparing is more beneficial for biodiversity conservation. To address these limitations, we offer a set of guidelines for the use of biodiversity metrics in conservation policy and practice
A Comparative Assessment of Food Security in South and North Korea Using Food Demand and Supply
Get PDFSouth Korea and North Korea share the same environment on the Korean peninsula, but they differ in socio-economic conditions, which leads to differences in crop productivity and status of food security. This study aimed at assessing food security in South Korea and North Korea by analyzing food demand and supply from 1991 to 2020. Food security was assessed by determining whether the food supply met the demand in two countries. South Korea achieved food security due to decreasing consumption, diverse nutrition, and stable rice productivity despite a reduction in cultivated paddy areas. In contrast, North Korea has faced food insecurity for 30 years, caused by a growing population, a lack of dietary diversity, and low crop productivity. To overcome food shortage, the North Korean government needs to focus on improving agricultural productivity through comprehensive reforms of agricultural infrastructures, rather than simply expanding low-productive cultivated areas. Although this study was conducted with limited data for North Korea, it sought to collect and utilize open and publicly accessible data. In the long term, both South Korea and North Korea should prepare for the impacts of climate change, considering agriculture-related sectors such as water and energy
A flexible approach for statistical disclosure control in geospatial data
Get PDFDue to confidentiality restrictions in releasing census and survey data, such as agricultural data from the European farm structure survey (9 million records), the data are aggregated to a coarse resolution (NUTS2 administrative regions) before public release. Even when other types of census data are released as grids, grid cells may be suppressed in locations where confidentiality rules have not been respected. Here, we present a method, implemented in the R package MRG , for creating multi-resolution grids that respect restrictions while maximizing the spatial resolution at which the data are disseminated. The method can be adjusted for different restrictions, it can create the same grid structure for a set of variables, and it allows for a contextual suppression of some grid cells (i.e., suppress if all neighbors are non-confidential, merge if several others are also confidential) if this results in a generally higher information content, a combination of features that has not previously been available. The method is exemplified with a synthetic data set
Sharing emissions and removals for meeting the Paris Agreement through a distributive and corrective justice lens
Get PDFCarbon dioxide removal (CDR) is critical for achieving net-zero and net-negative CO 2 emissions that can halt and potentially reverse global warming, respectively. However, reliable CDR is still costly and comes with considerable technological and ecological uncertainties. Despite the centrality of equity in the Paris Agreement, no integrated framework exists to equitably allocate responsibilities for CDR and residual emissions among countries. Here, we present a justice-based framework that separates out ethical considerations for equitably allocating gross emissions and gross CDR, addressing how these contributions shift before and after reaching global net-zero CO 2 emissions. The framework distinguishes between CDR delivered as a common good to reach a collective global climate outcome, and CDR that is used to pay off carbon debts due to emissions overconsumption. We offer a new perspective for how nations with substantial historical responsibilities and emerging economies with increasing capacities can collaborate and equitably share the CDR burden, enhancing both international cooperation and national-level climate action
Integrating air pollution-health feedback into climate projections: towards endogenous environmental-social links in the integrated models
No full textIntegrated assessment models (IAMs), often coupling Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), simulate how socioeconomic drivers, technology, policy, and environmental processes interact over time. However, these models typically treat socioeconomic drivers as exogenous input, overlooking how environmental outcomes, like air pollution, can in turn affect health and demographics. This limits our understanding of health co-benefits and weakens the basis for climate-health policy integration. Here, we tackle this gap by linking ambient PM2.5 concentrations from four SSP-RCP scenarios to the cause-specific risk functions and use the resulting risk impacts to adjust the age- and sex-specific demographic projections from the SSPs. This allows for more coherent estimation of how air quality trajectories influence health outcomes across 186 countries and territories through 2050. Our results reveal notable deviations from conventional SSP-based projections. In low-emission scenario (SSP1-1.9), PM2.5-related deaths over 2020-2050 are overestimated by 8 % (10 million) due to improved air quality. In contrast, deaths are underestimated by 6 % (15 million) in high-emission scenario (SSP3-7.0), where pollution worsens. These differences translate into life expectancy at birth changes of +0.23 and -0.16 years, respectively. The feedback effects are pronounced in Southeast Asian countries with elevated pollution exposure and population vulnerability, exacerbating the Global North-South mortality gaps under SSP3-7.0 while narrowing them in SSP1-1.9/2.6. Our findings underscore the need and potential of incorporating air pollution-health feedback into the integrated modeling frameworks, which would enhance the realism of long-term demographic projections, especially in pollution-prone regions, and support better-aligned climate and public health strategies
Air pollution and climate change drive health inequities across China’s provinces (2000–2023)
No full textAchieving health equity is a key mission of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study integrated epidemiological models for both acute and chronic health outcomes with climate, demographic, and cause-specific mortality data. It assessed province-level health inequalities and their drivers across China (2000–2023), focusing on short- and long-term exposures to air pollution (PM2.5, ozone) and climate-related events (heatwaves, cold spells). The results show that China’s clean air initiatives have significantly reduced PM2.5 levels, improving short-term exposure risks and narrowing ozone-related health inequalities. However, densely populated and aging regions in northern and central China continue to bear disproportionate health burdens. A hidden inequality also emerges in the west, where low mortality counts mask high mortality rates. Approximately 80% of the health benefits accrue to just 13.5%–19.0% of the population, while older adults – only 10% of the population—bear over 70% of the health burden. The analysis identifies three key drivers contributing to health inequality: accelerated population aging, inequities in healthcare access, and heightened vulnerability to climate change. The multi-risk factor analysis reveals persistent significant inequalities in health risks and benefits across regions and demographic groups
Resource or crisis? Cognitive functioning after widowhood and why paid work status matters
No full textObjectives
This study investigates the extent to which the experience of widowhood is associated with within-person changes in two key dimensions of cognitive functioning: crystallized and fluid intelligence (measured as memory recall and verbal fluency, respectively). This work enriches the empirical body of knowledge by considering whether paid work status (defined as working, retirement, or homemaking) plays a protective role in gender-specific cognitive changes associated with losing a spouse.
Methods
Utilizing six waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) covering 32,089 men (N = 97,774) and 40,821 women (N = 126,998) aged 50+, two-way fixed-effects regression models were estimated to compare changes in cognitive functioning between being continuously partnered versus experiencing widowhood. We considered important heterogeneities by performing sub-sample analyses by paid work status and gender.
Results
Cognitive changes were associated with widowhood, albeit markedly different by gender and across paid work status. The transition to widowhood among men was associated with reduced verbal fluency only if working. Instead, widows performed more poorly, especially in terms of memory recall, but only if they were homemakers at the time of the transition.
Discussion
Paid work may serve as a cognitive resource after widowhood. However, the way in which it acts depends on gender, while being retired at the time of widowhood acts as a protection for both men and women
Natural forests of the world – a 2020 baseline for deforestation and degradation monitoring
No full textInformed decisions to reduce deforestation, protect biodiversity, and curb carbon emissions require not just knowing where forests are, but understanding their composition. Identifying natural forests, which serve as critical biodiversity hotspots and major carbon sinks, is particularly valuable. We developed a novel global natural forest map for 2020 at 10 m resolution. This map can support initiatives like the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and other forest monitoring or conservation efforts that require a comprehensive baseline for monitoring deforestation and degradation. The globally consistent map represents the probability of natural forest presence, enabling nuanced analysis and regional adaptation for decision-making. Evaluation using a global independent validation dataset demonstrated an overall accuracy of about 92%
Global Methane Status Report
No full textThe Global Methane Status Report shows that while significant progress has been made since the launch of the Global Methane Pledge, further efforts are required to align with the level of ambition and action needed to meet the Pledge. Produced by UN Environment Programme and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), the Global Methane Status Report provides a comprehensive assessment of progress and remaining gaps in efforts to cut methane - a potent greenhouse gas responsible for nearly a third of current warming. The report shows that although methane emissions are still rising, projected 2030 emissions under current legislation are already lower than earlier forecasts due to a mix of national policies, sectoral regulations, and market shifts. However, the report warns that only full-scale implementation of proven and available control measures will close the gap to the Global Methane Pledge’s target of a 30% cut from 2020 levels by 2030
Real-Time AI Monitoring of Online Discourse for Crisis Communication
No full textThis talk demonstrates how artificial intelligence can be harnessed to analyze online discussions in real time, providing actionable insights for crisis communication. The presentation outlines a workflow in which data is continuously gathered from social media platforms, video sites, and news feeds. Advanced natural language processing techniques are then applied to detect sudden surges in topic mentions, map shifts in public sentiment, and identify dominant narratives without manual intervention. Misinformation detector highlights emerging rumors that require rapid correction.
Through illustrations across multiple crisis scenarios such as natural disasters, public health threats, and geopolitical events the talk shows how an AI‑powered dashboard can visualize trending concerns, emotional tone changes, and disinformation hotspots. The session advocates for organizations and governments to integrate such systems into their crisis protocols, enabling teams to anticipate public anxieties, tailor messages dynamically, and allocate resources more effectively. Attendees will gain a practical framework for designing the necessary data pipelines, deploying sentiment and topic analysis at scale, and embedding real‑time monitoring into existing communication strategies