20253 research outputs found
Sort by
Living beyond limits: Consequences of missing the decisive decade for preserving our planet’s life-supporting systems
No full textHumanity faces its ultimate challenge due to its failure so far in addressing the escalating risks, which are pushing the world into a deepening crisis. We have to rapidly adopt new pathways that reduce negative impacts and optimize regeneration. Today, we exceed our planet’s capacity to sustain life, depriving billions of basic needs amid rising conflict. Yet, with collective will, we can bridge the gap between knowledge and action to safeguard life-support on Earth
AI-Driven Analysis of Spanish-Language Crisis Discourse: Lessons from the 2025 Iberian Peninsula Blackout
No full textThis presentation analyzes Spanish-language discourse on YouTube in the immediate aftermath of the unprecedented Iberian Peninsula blackout of April 28, 2025. Based on 76,398 comments from 360 relevant videos, we employed the OpenAI GPT-4o-mini model to explore emotional responses, misinformation, and civic engagement. The findings reveal a discourse dominated by anger (43% of comments) and a pervasive spread of unverified claims, present in 46% of comments. Blame was overwhelmingly directed at government and political failures, reflecting deep institutional distrust. Although one in five comments included a call to action, few offered constructive solutions beyond demands for infrastructure reform. These results underscore the critical need for multilingual, real-time crisis communication and highlight the distinct information challenges for Spanish-speaking communities during emergencies. The research contributes to our understanding of digital resilience and inclusive public policy in the face of systemic crises
A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change
No full textWater temperature is a key abiotic factor influencing aquatic ecosystem health and the services provided to both nature and humans. Global water temperature models offer possibilities to improve our understanding of water temperature regimes, which is increasingly important against the backdrop of climate change. Yet, existing studies have predominantly relied on a single model, which can lead to an incomplete representation of uncertainty and potential biases, in addition to limited insight into the range of possible future conditions, which ultimately reduces the robustness of climate impact assessments. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of surface freshwater temperature changes from various river and lake models for both past conditions and under future scenarios of climate change. Global models consistently simulate that surface water temperatures are currently 0.5 °C–0.8 °C higher than at the turn of the century (i.e. 1981–2000), and that warming will extend and intensify with future global change throughout the 21st century. While the strength of warming is highly sensitive to the different water temperature models, emissions scenarios and global climate models, our multi-model ensemble shows a global average annual water temperature rise of between +1.3 °C and +4.1 °C by the end of the century. To illustrate a potential societal impact of our results, we evaluate how future changes in discharge and water temperature may affect existing thermoelectric power plants, estimating average annual reductions of 1.5%–6% in global usable capacity by the end of the century. However, with river water temperatures projected to exhibit more pronounced seasonal patterns in the future—especially under the more extreme climate change scenarios and during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere—intra-annual reductions in usable capacity can be much more severe. Given the challenges associated with (large-scale) adaptation to control water temperature regimes, strong climate change mitigation is crucial for minimising water temperature rises and its associated negative impacts on humankind and ecosystems
Impact of the morphology of logged areas on medium and large mammal communities in forests
No full textContext
The morphology of logged areas (MLA) can impact medium and large mammal habitat. Assessing MLAs with landscape metrics facilitates sustainable forest management and biodiversity conservation.
Objectives
We quantified MLAs and assessed their impacts on medium and large mammals.
Methods
We assessed mammal occurrence using camera traps in 24 logged and 26 unlogged sites in South Korea and collected environmental variables, including nine MLA indices, at the microscale (50 m), mesoscale (500 m), and macroscale (1 km). After performing a principal component analysis (PCA), linear mixed and single-species occupancy models were used to assess the effects of principal components on mammal diversity and species-specific responses.
Results
In the PCA results, MLA components were notably associated with spatial scales, with 50-m-scale indices separated from larger-scale indices. Several MLA components showed strong associations. Microscale MLA traits, particularly edge complexity and reduced unlogged patch connectivity, negatively affected diversity. At the species level, omnivores—specifically, wild boar (Sus scrofa) and Asian badger (Meles leucurus)—were negatively influenced by the same MLA component influencing diversity. In contrast, leopard cats (Prionailurus bengalensis) showed a preference for simplified spatial arrangements—characterized by fewer logged areas and short edges—at the 500 m and 1 km scales.
Conclusions
Our findings highlight the importance of MLAs in mitigating logging impacts on mammals, as some morphologies can reduce exposure and provide more favorable habitat. Designing logged areas based on MLA indices can help balance conservation and resource use
Assessment of regulating ecosystem services generated by green infrastructure: A case study of Bolzano, Italy
No full textSustainable cities is one of the key topics of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. SDG 11 promotes the goal that cities should be inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable human settlements. In this context, urban ecosystems, namely, Green Infrastructure (GI) can play a key role to enhance ecosystem services. GI improves ecosystem functioning and resilience, protects biodiversity, promotes societal health and well-being. The concept of GI in cities is becoming increasingly important in the development of urban policies since it improves the quality of life while mitigating the adverse effects of climate change. In this paper, we integrate biophysical method and monetary methods using i-Tree Eco software with about 12,000 trees within Bolzano, Italy. Model results are given for five assessed ecosystem services: 1) carbon storage, 2) carbon sequestration, 3) oxygen production, 4) avoided runoff, and 5) air pollution removal. Thus, our results show the significance of urban trees as a key element for better urban planning considering specific species contribution. The findings of this study will increase the awareness on the important role GIs play in urban systems to improve human well-being, informing policy-makers in charge of developing strategies to achieve impelling conservation actions and sustainability goals
Dataset on the dynamic stocks and flows of 20 types of plastics in China, 1978–2022
No full textThe widespread use of plastics has reshaped material cycles, requiring systematic understanding of their socioeconomic metabolism, encompassing material flows and stocks from production to end-of-life, to support effective policy development. Although previous studies have addressed specific aspects of plastic flows in China, existing data have been fragmented, with limited resolution and temporal consistency. Here, we develop a high-resolution, temporally consistent dynamic material flow database for China (1978-2022), covering 20 major plastic types (covering over 95% of national demand), 11 manufactured product groups, 9 end-use sectors, 4 waste disposal pathways, and international trade. The dataset is validated against published estimates and further assessed through sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, which highlight key parameters that are relatively sensitive and suggest directions for future refinement. By openly releasing all underlying data and code, we ensure full transparency and reproducibility. This work provides a database of over 60,000 data records that serves as a critical basis for quantitative research on plastic material cycles and supports further modeling of circular economy strategies
The Principles of Open Science Monitoring
No full textTo fully take advantage of the adoption of the 2021 UNESCO Recommendation on Open Science, transparent and representative monitoring must be put in place to drive and support the intended change. It is also vital to identify effective actions and priority gaps.
To compensate for the lack of global guidelines on open science monitoring, the French Ministry of Higher Education and Research initially brought together a group of French experts (Université de Lorraine, Inria) to work on a proposal for common monitoring principles. This text served as a basis for a conference which gathered international experts at the Paris UNESCO headquarters in December 2023 (get access to the presentations), leading to the Open Science Monitoring Initiative (OSMI).
OSMI and UNESCO then conducted an international consultation to gather opinions from around the world to ensure that the Principles meet a variety of needs, approaches and contexts worldwide. In the past few months, the OSMI Initiators and the OSMI Coordination Committee have painstakingly integrated the feedback from more than 150 experts worldwide, from 41 countries on the five continents into the draft principles. We are now proud to announce the publication of the final internationally agreed upon version of the Principles of Open Science Monitoring.
These Principles focus on three key pillars: (1) relevance and significance, (2) transparency and reproducibility, and (3) self-assessment and responsible use. They have been drafted with differing stakeholder contexts, capacities, and resources in mind, consistently considering both qualitative and quantitative outputs and outcomes. Importantly, the Principles are not intended for assessing individual researchers. In addition, they are intended to be more aspirational than prescriptive. We hope that these Principles will serve as the framework of past and upcoming open science monitoring systems and will be endorsed worldwide.
About OSMI: https://open-science-monitoring.org
Editorial essay: ERL focus issue on technology and global change
No full textThe ERL Focus Issue on Technology and Global Change brings together 19 research articles, 4 perspectives, and 2 topical reviews on wide-ranging topics including innovation, policy, poverty alleviation, digitalisation, and modelling. Collectively, these 25 new articles help advance understanding of technology and global change, building on work 25 years ago by Arnulf Grübler whose system perspective in turn built on pioneering scholarship in evolutionary and institutional economics. In this editorial essay, we survey the 25 contributions to this Focus Issue and draw out some of the themes and ideas that define the research frontiers in this field
From global trends to local realities: A multi-scale scenario-building methodology for community infrastructure planning
No full textThis paper details a multi-scale scenario-building methodology designed to explore transport infrastructure futures in rapidly changing Circumpolar North communities, bridging global trends and national contexts with local realities. Focusing on Churchill, Canada, and Kirkenes, Norway, we employed a hybrid approach that combined top-down adaptation of existing global and regional socioeconomic scenarios with bottom-up, participatory ethnographic research to ensure local relevance and incorporate stakeholder knowledge. We developed coherent scenarios across global, regional (national), and local scales, allowing higher-level archetypes to manifest differently depending on locally specific features identified through fieldwork. This consecutive, nested process utilized morphological analysis and the Factor-Actor-Sector framework to maintain consistency while accommodating local specificities. The methodology centered not just on scenario creation but also on the function of scenarios as a tool for community dialogue, utilizing artistic visualizations in workshops to engage diverse stakeholders. This approach demonstrates a way to navigate the tension between global and national drivers versus local community needs, yielding distinct yet comparable local futures grounded in broader development pathways. It offers practical insights for deliberations and planning in uncertain environments, both built and unbuilt
Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades
No full textThis dataset forms the basis of the sea-level commitment analysis of Nauels et al. (2025).
To process the data and reproduce the figures of the study, please clone the corresponding GitLab repository (https://gitlab.com/anauels/slr_commitment) and follow the instructions in its README file. This dataset should then be stored in the data/ directory of the local copy of the repository, while maintaining the directory structure.
Under the MAGICC/ subdirectory, the scenario forcing input to MAGICC, as well as the MAGICC model output for the RCPs and SSP-RCP-based commitment scenarios, is provided.
Under the P20/ subdirectory, the P20 comparison global mean sea-level rise (GMSLR) output is provided, as well as the input for and output of the regionalization