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From local landscapes to global: A cross-scale and cross-level framework for a more just food systems transformation
No full textTransforming food systems to improve socio-economic, environmental, and food security outcomes requires improved understanding of how system actors and outcomes interact across different levels and scales. To date, food systems science supporting the Food Systems Transformation (FST) has focused on macro and global or planetary level outcomes, while actor-focused work has occurred at more granular levels in adjacent yet siloed disciplines. This paper develops a cross-scale and cross-level conceptual framework to link food system actors, activities, and system outcomes, emphasising inclusion and justice in transformation processes. The framework shows how outcomes at one level become drivers at another, offering a useful analytical approach for both researchers and decision makers. To illustrate its application, the framework is operationalised with a qualitative case study of Papua New Guinean cocoa smallholder farmers across four communities. Using semi-structured interviews (n = 160), we analyse food system activities, drivers, and feedbacks across scales and levels. The results show that low influence actors, despite limited power in formal governance, play critical roles in shaping food system outcomes, such as land use and food security. Cross-scale interactions, such as between national education policy, local land use decisions, and global market pressures, demonstrate how top-down interventions can reinforce challenges in the system, particularly for low influence actors. By explicitly embedding scale, level, and actor inclusion into food-system analysis, the framework advances conceptual clarity, diagnostic precision, and coordination across research, policy, and governance domains needed for a more just and effective FST. Lastly, it provides an update on food system activities and outcomes in remote PNG communities, for which published data are scarce
Climate policy portfolios that accelerate emission reductions
No full textThe corpus of national climate policies continues to grow - but to what effect? Using data on 3,917 policy instruments across 43 OECD countries and major emerging economies from 2000-2022, we show that national climate policy portfolios specializing in instrument types and sectors are associated with faster reductions in fossil CO 2 emission intensity. Supported by exemplar country case studies, we also provide quantitative evidence that the effectiveness of climate policy is amplified by long-term emission reduction targets and the presence of dedicated governmental bodies including ministries and intergovernmental organisations. The cumulative effect of all climate policy portfolios over our study period amounts to 3.1 GtCO 2 fewer emissions in 2022 relative to a no-policy counterfactual - substantially less than what’s needed to stay on track for the Paris Agreement goals
Speed and Justice in a Renewable Energy Transition
No full textA just transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy has been associated with a variety of duties, including climate change mitigation and promoting procedural, distributive, and recognitional justice. Several authors have discussed transitional justice tensions between the need for rapid greenhouse gas emissions reductions and other aspects of a just transition, such as fair inclusion of stakeholders. We make the case that such trade-offs are often uncertain, and that this has important moral implications tied to inductive risks. Inductive risks arise when decision-making requires accepting or rejecting an uncertain statement, where the moral harms of errors may be asymmetrical. This line of reasoning suggests that very strong evidence should be required to accept that imposing injustices on marginalized populations is necessary for rapid emissions reductions
Can we bend the curve: Trends in global biodiversity scenarios
No full textInternationally, it has been agreed to halt and reverse biodiversity loss, a commitment partly underpinned by model-based scenario analyses showing that bending the trend is possible. These scenarios provide insights into alternative future biodiversity trends and their drivers. Our meta-analysis differentiates scenarios that project biodiversity loss and that halt or reverse the trend based on their quantitative outcomes and explores their key characteristics such as scenario assumptions, drivers of loss, biodiversity indicators and models used. We found that bending-the-curve studies are scarce, and mostly do no account for climate change, which risks suggesting that the trend can be bent too easily. Our findings indicate that bending is only achievable with integrated efforts across different sectors, such as nature conservation, sustainable food production, diet change, and reduced food waste. To better support policymaking, scenarios should be based on model intercomparisons and use standardize indicators to allow comparisons across studies, account for additional drivers of loss to represent the real threats to biodiversity, and include more ambitious cross-sectoral actions to effectively bend the curve
Ozone burden in a changing climate – contrasting the costs of emission controls and benefits for health and agriculture in Austria
No full textClimate change alters atmospheric chemistry and meteorological conditions in ways that exacerbate surface ozone pollution, with consequences for human health and agriculture. In Austria, where ambitious emission controls have improved air quality in the past, rising temperatures and elevated methane abundances in the context of climate change may counteract these gains. This paper assesses the societal welfare effects of ozone exposure in Austria under future climate scenarios by comparing a medium (RCP4.5) to a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario for 2030 and 2050. We further introduce a novel scenario (RCP8.5+), in which only Austrian ozone precursor emissions are more stringently controlled under a global high-emissions context, to evaluate the effectiveness of national emission controls. Net effects are quantified by integrating market costs – agricultural yield changes and emission control costs assessed in a computable general equilibrium model – with non-market health costs. Results show that in 2030, emission control costs in RCP4.5 exceed the societal welfare benefits of a reduced ozone burden compared to RCP8.5. By 2050, however, benefits outweigh costs with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of seven. This shift reflects higher upfront control costs in 2030, which lead to sustained air quality improvements through mid-century. In RCP8.5+, national emission controls yield strong benefits with a BCR of eight. While both scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5+) reduce yield losses compared to RCP8.5, health benefits dominate the societal welfare gains. These findings underscore the local benefits of national air quality management, highlighting its effectiveness as an abatement strategy for managing ozone risks in a warming climate
Transitions in and out of Loneliness During the COVID‐19 Pandemic: A Latent Class Analysis of Older Adults in England
No full textDisease control measures during the COVID‐19 pandemic may have intensified loneliness among older adults, though experiences varied based on individual vulnerabilities and resources. This study examines loneliness trajectories among older adults using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, spanning four waves: two pre‐pandemic (Wave 8: 2016–2017; Wave 9: 2018–2019) and two COVID‐19 substudies (June–July and November–December 2020). The sample included 4492 respondents (17,968 observations). Latent class growth analysis identified four loneliness trajectories: ‘not lonely’ (73.5%), ‘pandemic loneliness’ (12.7%), ‘transitioned out of loneliness’ (6.9%) and ‘enduring loneliness’ (6.8%). Multinomial regression analysis explored predictors of trajectory membership. Younger age (50–74), being female, depression, COVID‐related worries and disrupted daily routines increased the likelihood of belonging to ‘pandemic loneliness’ rather than ‘not lonely’. Optimism and strong partner support increased the likelihood of remaining ‘not lonely’ or transitioning out of loneliness. The pandemic's unintended effects, including routine disruptions and financial concerns, heightened loneliness risks, whereas psychosocial resources provided critical resilience. To prepare for future public health crises, policies should strengthen mental health support, promote social and economic stability and enhance social connection and resilience. Addressing psychosocial factors is essential to reducing loneliness and protecting older adults' well‐being during and beyond periods of crisis
Irreversibility in climate action
No full textAlthough climate action is undermined by political interests and institutional inertia, multiple safeguards are in place to prevent backsliding on progress so far, and positive feedbacks reinforce progress despite opposing forces. Key elements of climate action are irreversible and can be further strengthened by commitments, investments and positive narratives.
There is a growing political divide with forces at work, such as the deliberate efforts by the current US administration to weaken climate policies, discredit climate science and promote fossil fuels, which is cause for concern. This creates uncertainty in the direction of long-term policy to tackle climate change, which undermines the investments needed to drive decarbonization. Nevertheless, ambitious climate action is well underway and continues to evolve under the auspices of the Paris Agreement. Policies and investments have driven rapid cost reductions in renewable energy and batteries, while expanding the deployment of a range of low-carbon technologies
How home automation reshapes household time use and energy demand: Evidence from a mixed-methods longitudinal study
No full textDomestic automation technologies are increasingly promoted as time- and energy-saving solutions, yet limited empirical evidence exists on how they are incorporated into everyday routines or how they influence household energy demand. Existing studies rarely examine real-world use over extended periods, leaving behavioural adaptations and indirect energy impacts underexplored. This paper addresses these gaps through a 15–18 month longitudinal mixed-methods experimental study of automation with 10 UK households, examining how the automation of floor cleaning reshapes time use and energy demand. Data were collected through repeated time-use diaries, smart-plug energy monitoring, app-based usage logs, participant reflections, and follow-up interviews. By integrating time-use analysis with typologies of indirect energy impacts, we quantify how automation alters when, how, how long and how often tasks are performed, frequently increasing total task duration and layering energy demand.
During the trial, floor-cleaning frequency increased on average by 32% and total cleaning duration by 189%, while occupants’ manual cleaning time decreased by 45 %. Energy demand direct from the device declined in some households but increased in others due to more frequent device operation, reflecting diverse patterns of substitution, efficiency, and rebound effects. Longer-term follow-up showed use of the device became partially routine, with most households maintaining higher cleaning duration but reduced frequency relative to the trial period. The findings demonstrate that the energy outcomes of domestic automation are highly contingent on how technologies are embedded within household routines. The study highlights the need for context-responsive design, behavioural-aware energy policy, and further investigation of how digitally mediated routines shape domestic energy demand
Integrating EPIC-Based Meta-Models into GLOBIOM for Systemic Risks Management
No full textUncertainty and variability are key challenges for climate change adaptation planning in land use and agricultural systems. Climate change uncertainty and impacts in the systems can be roughly divided into two main groups: biophysical and socio-economic impacts. Among the biophysical impacts are the physiological effects on crops, pastures, forests and livestock (quantity, quality); shifts in spatial and temporal patters of impacts; changes in land, soil and water resources (quantity, quality), increased pest and diseases, etc. Socio-economic impacts include possible decline in yields, production and GDP; volatility of market prices; changing spatial and temporal patterns of trade policies, food insecurity, migration. The analysis of biophysical impacts of climate can be investigated by dynamic bio-physical crop growth models, whereas the social and economic impacts can be analyzed with land use and agricultural models. As biophysical crop growth models are large-dimensional, memory and time consuming, the effective linkage of the two types of models can be achieved by integrating reduced forms biophysical models (meta-models) into land use planning models. This paper presents such an approach, i.e., we introduce meta-models based on biophysical EPIC model for simulating crop yields and soil nutrients balances in the presence of climate change and weather variability; and we describe how the meta-models can be explicitly integrated into the multiregional multisectoral land use model GLOBIOM. The quantile-based meta-models are capable of investigating crops yields and soil nutrient stocks probability distributions, which are important inputs into the stochastic two-stage GLOBIOM. Land use and agricultural systems can build-up resilience and adapt to climate changes by adopting two types of coherent decisions: the ex-ante forward-looking and the ex-post operational. This decision-making approach corresponds to the two-stage stochastic optimization (STO) incorporating both anticipative ex-ante and adaptive ex-post decisions within a single model. The paper discusses that the optimal and robust combination of the decisions depends on the shape of exogenous uncertainties (crop yields) simulated by meta-models, and the ratio between the ex-ante and ex-post costs, i.e., systems’ adaptive capacity can be increased by ex-ante preventive actions. Selected numerical results illustrate that the alteration of the ex-ante costs (production costs, investments, subsidies) can affect crop production, management technologies, and natural resource utilization thereby affecting food, land, environmental security
Water loss and return flows matter for water stress mitigation in China
No full textWater is withdrawn, lost, consumed, polluted, returned, treated, reused, and traded between regions within the societal water cycle due to human activities, contributing to regional water stress. In this research, we aim to examine the impacts of the societal water cycle on water resources and explore strategies for reducing water stress in China. The results show that most provinces in China suffer from water quantity and quality stress. However, there is a significant potential to reduce water quantity stress by 36–79 % through reducing water loss and return flows. The return flows and water loss in the virtual export forms could be avoided to reduce virtual water export-induced quantity stress by 39–89 %. Agriculture and households’ return flows contribute 61–98 % to provincial water quality stress in China. The five sectors with the greatest potential to mitigate water quantity and quality stress are identified for each province, which could reduce quantity stress by 22–75 % and quality stress by 23–76 %