20253 research outputs found
Sort by
A global reference data set for land cover mapping at 10 m resolution
No full textThis paper presents a unique global reference data set for land cover mapping at a 10 m resolution, aligned with Sentinel-2 imagery for the year 2015. It contains more than 16.5 million data records at a 10 m resolution (or 165 K data records at 100 m) and information on 12 different land cover classes. The data set was collected by a group of experts through visual interpretation of very high resolution imagery (e.g., from Google Maps, Microsoft Bing, ESRI World), along with other sources of information provided in the Geo-Wiki platform (e.g., NDVI time series, Sentinel-2 image time series, geo-tagged photographs, and street view imagery). To ensure high quality and consistency among the experts that collected the data, regular coordination meetings took place, there were regular quality checks of submissions, and comparison with regional land cover maps was undertaken. This extensive reference land cover data set can be used in various applications, e.g., land cover analysis, including mapping and quality verification, ecosystems mapping and modelling, and biodiversity and cropland studies, among others. The data set is available for download at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14871659 (Lesiv, 2025)
Energy price shocks in the European Union: Macroeconomic impacts, distributional effects and policy responses
No full textThe macroeconomic consequences of energy shocks, their distributional effects, and the potential remedies have recently scaled up the EU policy agenda. In this paper, we employ an agent-based, stock-flow consistent model empirically calibrated to the EU27 economy to evaluate the macroeconomic effects of an energy price shock akin to that which took place in 2022. Our focus is on a scenario in which the economy experiences a sudden, sharp increase in the price of imported fossil fuels, which affects the price of energy and thereby firms’ production costs and output prices. We show that the magnitude and persistence of the resulting inflationary episode, as well as the effects on functional income distribution, employment and economic activity, strongly depend on government intervention, the sensitivity of nominal wage claims to inflation, and the extent to which increases (and subsequent decreases) in the price of energy inputs are passed on into final output prices. We find that an empirically calibrated mix of transfer payments can be very effective in mitigating the macroeconomic impacts of the energy price shock. However, such policy interventions are never able to fully countervail the shift towards profits of the income distribution. Additional price-targeting measures to ensure the full pass-through of energy price decreases once the shock recedes offer a solution to this issue
Winners and losers: post-fire European forest taxa abundance meta-1 analysis
No full textBackground: Climate change is intensifying wildfire regimes across European forests, from Mediterranean to temperate and boreal biomes, creating urgent management challenges. Fire acts as a powerful selective filter with highly variable, context-dependent effects, yet a taxonomically comprehensive synthesis quantifying fire impacts on abundance across European forests remains absent. Regional understanding is critical because European forests have distinctive ecological characteristics and management histories compared to more extensively studied fire-prone ecosystems.
Results: We conducted a PRISMA-aligned systematic review and meta-analysis of 29 studies (n = 2192 effect sizes) to assess how fire characteristics (type, severity, time since fire) and environmental context (ecoregion, biome) affect taxa across European forests, focusing exclusively on abundance as a direct indicator of population response to disturbance. Taxonomic identity emerged as the strongest predictor of post-fire responses. Fire-sensitive taxa (Gastropoda, Passeriformes, bryophytes) showed severe declines, bryophytes even at low fire severity, while fire-opportunistic taxa (Hemiptera, Lepidoptera, Coleoptera, some vascular plants) showed dramatic increases, particularly after high-severity fires and during one to five years post-fire. Mediterranean forests showed less negative overall responses than temperate and boreal forests, yet fire-sensitive taxa declined severely even there. Critical data gaps, especially absence of prescribed fire data for fire-sensitive taxa and limited post-fire recovery monitoring, constrain management guidance. High residual heterogeneity indicated unmeasured factors (burn frequency, fire seasonality, microhabitat complexity, refugia availability, functional traits) play significant but inconsistently reported roles.
Conclusions: These findings demonstrate ecological trade-offs: fire regimes benefiting fire-opportunistic taxa devastate fire-sensitive taxa. As climate change drives novel fire regimes across Europe, evidence-based fire management requires landscape-scale strategies incorporating spatial heterogeneity, refugia conservation, and explicit consideration of taxonomic trade-offs. However, critical data limitations constrain robust management guidance. Standardized, long-term monitoring protocols across successional stages, fire events, and taxonomic groups, functional traits, consistent reporting of fire characteristics, microhabitat complexity, refugia availability, is essential. Combined with improved data sharing, this will enable adaptive management frameworks that balance wildfire risk reduction with biodiversity conservation in an era of unprecedented fire regime change
Scientific advice for amending the European Climate Law: Setting climate goals to strengthen EU strategic priorities
No full textThis advice forms part of the Advisory Board’s mandate to assess the coherence of EU climate targets with the European Climate Law and the EU’s international commitments under the Paris Agreement. It aims to support the EU in aligning its long-term climate ambition with strategic opportunities to boost resilience, competitiveness and sustainability. Building on this foundation, the current report reaffirms the Advisory Board’s 2023 recommendation, consolidates its 2024 and 2025 advice on policy opportunities to support EU climate targets, and introduces a new, dedicated recommendation on climate adaptation
Utilisation des instruments économiques pour réduire l’épuisement des eaux souterraines dans le contexte du changement climatique : cas de l’aquifère de Mahdia-Ksour Essef en Tunisie (Economic instruments for reducing groundwater depletion in the context of climate change: Case of Mahdia Ksour Essef aquifer in Tunisia)
No full textSustainable management of aquifers in arid and semi-arid regions is crucial to ensure socio-environmental sustainability. Groundwater extraction regulation can be implemented through various instruments. Hydro-economic modeling methods offer significant insights which help to evaluate these instruments for effective groundwater regulation. Nonetheless, regulators can leverage the information generated by hydro-economic models to enhance their decision-making processes related to water allocation. This study evaluates the impact of water management instruments such as quotas, environmental taxes, and the quota-tax system on the sustainability of the Mahdia-Ksour Essef aquifer and the local economy, while also considering future climate projections, using hydro-economic modeling. By exploring various water management scenarios, the study offers strategic insights for enhancing resource allocation. The policies of quotas, adjusted according to natural recharge, as well as taxes and combined policies (quota-tax system) are examined and compared to the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. The results show that policies based on quotas (only quotas and quota-taxes) allow for a faster replenishment of the aquifer and generate total revenues after taxes that are higher than those before taxes. For example, under the most pessimistic climate change scenario, a preservation quota for future generations could increase the actual aquifer level by 1.69 meters at the end of the simulation period. These policies could influence agricultural revenue by promoting more profitable and drought-resistant crops, such as olives and almonds. This study highlights the effectiveness of hydro-economic models as optimal approaches for evaluating groundwater management. Thus, it contributes to guiding policymakers toward strategic choices that promote sustainability and efficiency, particularly in the complex context of climate change and groundwater resource overexploitation
Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity
No full textThe equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) - the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 - is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the "Gregory method" (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, Delta T, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the Delta T-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method - total least squares (TLS) - which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments
GLOBIOM output data for the forest sector part in CLEVER D7.3 deliverable
No full textSupplement for CLEVER D7.3 deliverable including output data for the forest sector part figures. CLEVER D7.3 forest sector part analyzes wood-based bioeconomy and novel forest sector supply chains with global scenarios, and dedicated scenarios for the EU and Brazil. Results show that bioeconomy can be combined to sustainable forestry, but this needs novel forest sector supply chain solutions such as forest plantation, non-woody biomass use for bioenergy, and/or circular economy.
The record contains one readme file (readme_D73_ForestSupplyChains.docx) and two model output reporting csv file (CLEVER_D7.3_ForestSupplyChains_results_global.csv, CLEVER_D7.3_EUBDS_BRA.csv
CEDS v_2025_04_18 Gridded Emissions Data 0.5 degree
No full textThis Zenodo data entry is a documentation placeholder and diagnostic data release for the v_2025_04_18 0.5 degree gridded data released via ESGF.
This data is derived from CEDS v_2025_03_18 aggregate emissions release, which includes emissions data files by emission species (SO2, NOx, BC, OC, NH3, NMVOC, CO, CO2, CH4, N2O), country, and sector released here:
https://zenodo.org/records/15059443
This data set corrects spurious emissions in the CEDS v_2025_03_18 Gridded data 0.5 degree documented here:
https://zenodo.org/records/15001544
These corrections include:
1) significant corrections to seasonality for 2022 - 2023 across various sectors.
2) There are a few very small changes (in totals and spatial allocation) between 1961 - 2021 that correct an error in the previous release.
Species Sector Max glbl sect diff
CO IND -0.04%
CO2 ENE -2E-12
NOx IND and ENE -0.001%
(The relative differences are even smaller when total values across sectors are considered.)
For years before 1961, all files are identical to the previous release (v_2025_03_18 Gridded data 0.5 degree).
This data set can be accessed via ESGF, for detailed instructions on how to access and download, as well as data notes, see the README file attached.
The files released here include:
CEDS_v_2025_04_18_0.5_Gridded_README.txt (instructions for access on ESGF and data notes)
CEDS_v_2025_04_18_corrections_diagnostics.zip
See the CEDS GitHub site for details including journal paper reference information and any known issues with this data:
https://github.com/JGCRI/CED
Data - The Financial Toll of Climate-Induced Crop Losses
No full textThis repository contains the data and scripts required to reproduce the results of the manuscript "The Financial Toll of Climate-Induced Crop Losses" submitted to the Earth's Future journal