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Policy White Paper – Upscaling citizen engagement for climate resilience: Roadmap for policy transformational change
No full textThis document provides a roadmap to upscaling citizen engagement for climate resilience by consolidating insights and actionable recommendations drawn from the project’s extensive work. To significantly influence European and national climate adaptation strategies, the Policy White Paper is rooted in the robust results and key learnings gathered from Adaptation AGORA’s four diverse European pilot regions (in Germany, Sweden, Spain, and Italy). It highlights how multidisciplinary, integrated approaches, co-designed with local communities, have successfully addressed pressing climate challenges. These validated strategies provide concrete examples of effective, scalable adaptation in action.
The document provides sixteen recommendations structured around four key pillars: institutionalising engagement; strengthening local capacity; empowering citizens and stakeholders, and sharing and applying knowledge and best practices. The recommendations are the culmination of invaluable contributions from Adaptation AGORA’s extensive network. The Adaptation AGORA Policy White Paper is poised to become an essential resource for decision-makers, offering a clear pathway to align European efforts with the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change. It underscores the urgent need for inclusive, bottom-up approaches to build a climate-resilient Europe
Synthesizing global carbon–nitrogen coupling effects – the MAGICC coupled carbon–nitrogen cycle model v1.0
Get PDFThe integration of a nitrogen cycle represents a recent advancement in Earth system models (ESMs). However, diverse formulations introduce uncertainty in the nitrogen effect on the carbon cycle, leaving the global carbon-nitrogen coupling effect unclear. In this study, we present CNit v1.0, a newly developed carbon-nitrogen cycle model designed for integration with MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change), a widely used reduced-complexity model. CNit v1.0 has been calibrated to two land surface models (CABLE and OCN) and (the land component of) a set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ESMs. CNit v1.0 is able to capture the dynamics of the more complex models' carbon-nitrogen cycle at the global-mean, annual scale. The emulation results suggest a consistent nitrogen limitation on net primary production (NPP) in CMIP6 ESMs, persisting throughout the simulations (i.e., over the period 1850-2100) in most models. The emulation provides a way to disentangle diverse nitrogen effects on carbon pool turnovers in CMIP6 ESMs, with our results suggesting that nitrogen deficiency generally inhibits litter production and decomposition while enhancing soil respiration (from a multi-model mean perspective). However, this disentanglement is limited due to a lack of simulations from CMIP6 ESMs which would allow us to fully separate the nitrogen and carbon responses. The results imply a potential reduction in land carbon sequestration in the future due to nitrogen deficiency. Future studies will use CNit to further investigate the carbon-nitrogen coupling effect, including uncertainty, in future climate projections
Fuel from air: A techno-economic assessment of e-fuels for low-carbon aviation in China
Get PDFAviation remains one of the most challenging sectors to achieve low carbon emissions due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuels and the lack of cost-competitive alternatives. This study evaluates the potential of Direct Air Capture (DAC)-based e-fuels to meet China’s aviation fuel demand by 2050. The research assesses e-fuel production costs and resource requirements under diverse scenarios, incorporating spatio-temporal variations in electricity, water, transportation, and policies. Results show that DAC capital costs and the energy market are the primary determinants. Liquid absorbent DAC (L-DAC), with lower capital costs but higher resource demands, is suitable for resource-abundant regions, while solid absorbent DAC (S-DAC), benefiting from higher learning rates and lower resource requirements, is optimal for water-scarce, high-demand regions like Beijing and Shanghai. By 2050, China could produce 102 Mt of e-fuels, meeting 84% of its demand, requiring 3457 TWh of renewable electricity and 597 billion liters of water, 78% of which would come from desalination. E-fuel costs range from 3208/ton (L-DAC), remaining 2.5–4 times higher than fossil jet fuels. Achieving cost parity requires low electricity prices (∼80–50/ton), and strong policy incentives. This could reduce e-fuel costs to $900–1000/ton. The study also evaluates an alternative pathway involving Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage paired with fossil fuel utilization. While this route offers cost and energy efficiency, it may raise long-term sustainability concerns. These findings underscore the potential of e-fuels for net-zero aviation targets, highlighting the urgency of supportive policies to scale their deployment effectively
Short-Term Forecasting Arabica Coffee Cherry Yields by Seq2Seq over LSTM for Smallholder Farmers
Get PDFCoffee production is a vital source of income for smallholder farmers in Mexico’s Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, and Veracruz regions. However, climate change, fluctuating yields, and the lack of decision-support tools pose challenges to the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. The SABERES project aims to address these challenges through a Seq2Seq-LSTM model for predicting coffee yields in the short term, using datasets from Mexican national institutions, including the Agricultural Census (SIAP) and environmental data from the National Water Commission (CONAGUA). The model has demonstrated high accuracy in replicating historical yields for Chiapas and can forecast yields for the next two years. As a first step, we assessed coffee yield prediction for Bali, Indonesia, by comparing the LSTM, ARIMA, and Seq2Seq-LSTM models using historical data. The results show that the Seq2Seq-LSTM model provided the most accurate predictions, outperforming LSTM and ARIMA. Optimal performance was achieved using the maximum data sequence. Building on these findings, we aimed to apply the best configuration to forecast coffee yields in Chiapas, Mexico. The Seq2Seq-LSTM model achieved an average difference of only 0.000247, indicating near-perfect accuracy. It, therefore, demonstrated high accuracy in replicating historical yields for Chiapas, providing confidence for the next two years’ predictions. These results highlight the potential of Seq2Seq-LSTM to improve yield forecasts, support decision making, and enhance resilience in coffee production under climate change
Comparative techno-economic analysis of hydrogen supply in China: Green hydrogen vs green electricity
No full textGreen hydrogen is pivotal for transforming China's clean energy systems, yet analyses of various hydrogen carriers and green electricity transmission remain limited. This study investigates cost dynamics of hydrogen supply across six pathways from production to refueling within China, encompassing carriers such as liquid hydrogen (LH2), liquid organic hydrogen carriers, methanol (CH3OH), and ammonia (NH3). These pathways are categorized into the green hydrogen pathway (I) and the green electricity pathway (II), wherein electricity is delivered from renewable-rich regions to demand centers for on-site hydrogen production, considering the potential risk associated with the storage and transportation of large volume hydrogen. The results show that pathway (II) yields the lowest cost at 12.07 USD/kg. In contrast, CH3OH is the most expensive option at 30.70 USD/kg. Operational expenditures are primary drivers of production costs, while capital expenditures significantly influence the conversion and delivery phases, especially for NH3 and LH2. Transportation distance critically affects overall cost. Pathway (II) remains economical over 500–5000 km. LH2 is preferred beyond 700 km; NH3 surpasses LOHC at 2150 km and pipeline at 4300 km. Furthermore, longer annual operating hours and shorter transportation distances can greatly reduce costs. For example, CH3OH cost drops by 92% as operating hours increase from 1000 to 5000 and distance decreases from 5000 to 500 km. Regional cost variations are primarily attributed to the spatial distribution of renewable energy resources. These findings highlight the importance of developing region-specific hydrogen delivery strategies and upgrading infrastructure to enhance cost-efficiency across the hydrogen supply chain
Social Innovations and Transformations in Flood Risk Management
Get PDFFlood risk management has changed significantly over the past decades (Kuhlicke et al. 2020). The focus has shifted from flood protection to flood risk management also with the consequence to change the relationship and arrangement between state and nonstate actors (Hartmann and Juepner 2014; Hartmann and Driessen 2017). Flood protection embraces a hazard-based perspective that relies primarily on engineering solutions. It is driven by expert-based and top-down decision-making. Flood risk management include a broader more holistic perspective of dealing with floods, including stronger involvement of nonstate actors (Adger et al. 2013; Hartmann and Driessen 2017; Kuhlicke et al. 2020). A core aim of flood risk management is also to encourage bottom-up innovative solutions for managing flood hazards (Thaler, Attems, and Fuchs 2022; Birkmann et al. 2023; Junger et al. 2023). Nevertheless, the selection process of flood risk management strategies still places a strong emphasis on technical mitigation measures. A significant barrier remains the preference within flood risk management for established and reliable methods over more experimental approaches that could potentially achieve broader objectives. In addition to conventional technical measures, which are often capital-intensive and can lead to environmental degradation, there is a growing need for innovative solutions that can not only effectively reduce flood risks, but also contribute to nature conservation, climate change mitigation, sustainable natural resource management, and the successful implementation of the European Water Framework Directive and the Floods Directive. Moreover, these innovations should aim to deliver societal co-benefits, such as improved quality of life and well-being. However, the success of these innovative concepts depends on social innovations that can drive a societal transformation process.
The concept social innovation has been introduced a long time ago with the aim to overcome lock-in situations and to provide “better” responses to ongoing societal problems, such as managing the housing crises, encouraging our society toward decarbonization, selecting and implementing climate adaptation strategies, dealing other national and international crises and so forth (Hamdouch and Nyseth 2023). The core point of social innovation is the encouragement of social change, including a collective decision-making process. Put differently, social innovation can be understood as a way in which people are aiming at establishing new and more effective answers to the challenges that societies face, while at the same time embedding these solutions in a way that address societal needs (and not only steered towards economic profit). In this way, social innovation puts a greater emphasis compared to other types of innovation on values attached to products, including improving relationships, establishing new forms of cooperation, collaboration, and knowledge sharing. In particular, the concept of social innovation acts a counterresponse to the neoliberalism perspective on innovation and its potentially negative consequences for our society, such as privatization. Consequently, social innovation is also seen as a tool to encourage more democratic processes within political decision-making (Metzger, Allmendinger, and Oosterlynck 2014). Therefore, a core focus of social innovation lies in the support of the citizens to participate within political processes, which can eventually also encourage societal transformation process (Meyer and Hartmann 2025)
Optimal pathways toward a carbon-neutral power system considering low-carbon technologies in the Yangtze River Delta region
Get PDFBecause of its important role in China, many scholars have addressed the decarbonization of the Yangtze River Delta Region (YRDR). However, little work has been conducted on appropriate ways to transform the YRDR power system into a carbon-neutral system. This study develops an optimization model to explore the optimal pathways toward a carbon-neutral power system in the YRDR by 2060. In addition to traditional power generation technologies, the model includes carbon tax (or carbon emission cost), carbon capture and storage (CCS), forest carbon sink (FCS), renewable energy, and energy imports from outside the YRDR. The main findings are as follows: (1) in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the YRDR's power system could reach its carbon peak by 2030, but it would not achieve carbon neutrality by 2060; (2) in the carbon neutrality scenario, FCS could mitigate 88 % of the carbon emissions of the YRDR power system; and (3) a high proportion of renewable energy could help transform the YRDR's power system to a carbon-neutral one, but would increase the cost by 44.8 %. The main policy implication is that implementing a carbon tax and promoting renewable energy, FCS, CCS, and other carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies should be considered together to transform the YRDR power system
Subnational survey data reveal persistent gaps in living standards across 75 low and middle-income countries
Get PDFMany households worldwide face substantial gaps in decent living standards (DLS), universal and essential material preconditions for achieving well-being and inclusive development. Here, we use subnational Demographic and Health Survey data from 75 low and middle-income countries (1990–2021) to explore the distribution and trends of ten living standards. We estimate that 94.9% of households in our dataset lack the material prerequisites for at least one of the ten standards, and 63.6% for one-third of them. Stark inequalities persist both within and between countries, with regions in sub-Saharan Africa experiencing the most severe deprivations. Despite some improvements, progress remains limited in critical areas such as health care, sanitation, housing, and education. Within countries, rural, agrarian households with low levels of educational attainment are particularly disadvantaged. These granular findings at the subnational level can help direct policy efforts and resources towards those populations most in need
Metal mining is a global driver of environmental change
No full textGlobal metal extraction is increasing, owing to rising mineral demands from infrastructure development and the growing need for metal-intensive renewable energy technologies to mitigate climate change and phase out coal mining. However, extraction of metal ores also drives impacts on land use, water resources and biodiversity. In this Review, we evaluate mining trends of 47 metal ores between 1970 and 2022 and explore the environmental consequences. Global extraction of crude metal ores has nearly quadrupled, from 2.7 gigatonnes (Gt) in 1970 to almost 9.4 Gt in 2022, with the greatest increases in Oceania (+1,222%), South America (+929%) and Asia (+285%). Ore-specific mining activities are generally concentrated, with the top-five producers contributing on average 82.7% of the global supply in 2022. The impacts of mining are also concentrated. In 2022, about 50% of the 100,000 km2 global mining areas were located in Russia, China, Australia, the United States and Indonesia. Mining-induced water consumption, pollution and biodiversity loss substantially affect local ecosystems, with tropical rainforests and deserts being especially vulnerable. Around 70% of global metal extraction is linked to international supply chains. Enhanced environmental assessments, stricter implementation of policies, and coordinated actions across sectors throughout supply chains (mining, processing, consumers and financial markets) can help to mitigate the environmental impacts of mining
Global efforts addressing methane emissions is a key factor to further reducing ozone-induced yield losses of crops in Europe
No full textThis study has shown that there is a large potential to avoid wheat production losses through global efforts to reduce emissions of non-methane ozone precursors. In addition, global efforts to reduce methane concentrations could avoid additional wheat production losses due to the role of methane as an ozone precursor. Ex-post analysis on scenarios used within the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West (EMEP-MSC-West) model revealed that within the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) region (excluding North America and Israel) in 2050 using the LOW future emission scenario, the reduction in ozone as a consequence of reducing global non-methane precursor emissions showed avoided wheat production losses of 6.4 million tonnes compared to that with current legislation. For the EU27 countries this was 3.1 million tonnes of wheat, equating to a value of approximately €675 million. Reducing both non-methane and methane ozone precursors globally have avoided wheat production losses in the UNECE region in 2050 totalling 9.0 million tonnes, compared to that calculated from emissions in current legislation. Within EU27 this was 4.4 million tonnes of wheat, equating to a value of approximately €976 million.
Within the UNECE region (excluding North America and Israel) the relative benefits of additional reductions in non-methane emissions within the region, non-methane emissions in the rest of the world, and global efforts to reduce methane emissions, were approximately equal. This demonstrates the benefits from reducing regional non-methane emissions, global non-methane emissions and global methane as contributing factors to avoiding crop yield losses due to their role in ozone formation