20253 research outputs found
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NGFS long-term scenarios, narratives and key findings: Net Zero 2050, Current Policies and Fragmented World
No full textReconstructing Educational Attainment from the UN's Age and Sex Distribution (1950–2015)
No full textWe have updated the data on the historical reconstruction of population by sex, age, and education, as well as the mean years of schooling, for 147 countries covering the period from 1950 to 2015. Due to some changes in our methodology, the results differ across all countries. Our analysis relies on validated and harmonized historical data used in the 2018 version (Speringer et al., 2019). This back-projection is consistent with the 2023 update of the WIC population and human capital projections (K.C. et al., 2024).
The back-projection utilizes a multidimensional cohort component model. The fundamental hypothesis for reconstructing past educational levels is that educational attainment is typically acquired in earlier stages of life and remains stable thereafter. Consequently, the educational composition of the population reflects historical trends in educational attainment by cohorts, adjusted for the effects of mortality and migration differentials based on education.
We begin with the initial educational composition from the last available year. Furthermore, we extend the age structure of the population to include individuals aged 170 and above and incorporate historical education data. We back-project educational levels along cohorts for those aged 35 and older, assuming no further changes in educational attainment for this group. For these ages, the distribution of education primarily varies due to mortality differentials related to education.
For the population aged 15-34, we back-project educational dynamics by calculating cohort-specific education attainment progression ratios (EAPR) and then reverse the progression ratio as we move backward in time.
While projecting backwards, we apply mortality differentials (also used in the projections) to the population by splitting the overall survival ratio into six education-specific survival ratios. Finally, we apply the resulting education distribution by age and sex to the United Nations population estimates (United Nations, 2022) for the period from 1950 to 2020.
This version number V01 used here corresponds to the version number V15 of the forward projection (updated soon)
Ambition and reality in the climate resilience of residential buildings: A case study on flood reconstruction in Austria
No full textClimate-resilient development pathways call for integration of climate change adaptation and mitigation; however, implementing climate resilience requires coordination between policy domains. Residential buildings may shed light on climate resilience, being vulnerable to climate-related natural hazards and contributing significantly to carbon emissions. We analyse how residential buildings in an Austrian peri-urban area after the 2013 Danube flood were reconstructed to be not just flood-proof but also energy efficient. Five main policy instruments and their underlying governance process are described and their outcomes are assessed using public statistics, interviews with 15 policy actors, streetside observation of 126 buildings and six ethnographic case stories of specific households. The policy instruments are uncoordinated and address only their own policy domain. Households remodel their buildings minimally after the flood. Transformation to climate resilience mostly occurs in new buildings that are no longer exposed to flooding and have to comply with building regulations. Overall, the ambitions for climate resilience put forward in policy strategies hardly manifest in the reality of the case study. Funding criteria for disaster aid and renovation subsidies should be adapted to incentivise both flood protection and energy efficiency. Local authorities could be intermediaries in the rollout of policy instruments
China’s land carbon sinks: from improved estimates to opportunities for better management
No full textUsing causal loop diagrams to explore the maternal and child health system response to payment for performance in Zambia, and it’s generalisability across settings
No full textThis study investigates the generalisability of pathways depicted by causal loop diagrams (CLDs) in payment for performance (P4P) schemes by adapting and validating the Tanzanian CLDs to the Zambian context. Specifically, it explores whether the health system pathways represented by CLDs, are consistent across different settings and how variations in programme design and local context influence these pathways. Using a five-stage approach, the study adapted the Tanzanian CLDs to reflect the Zambian P4P programme context, validating them through stakeholder interviews, workshops, and secondary qualitative data. The findings show that while the overarching pathways influencing P4P outcomes are similar, differences in programme design and contextual factors shape their intensity and impact. Notably, Zambia's higher facility autonomy and stronger trust in the health system contributed to greater health worker motivation and service delivery compared to Tanzania. Programme design features such as safeguards for non-incentivised services and adequate funding for facility investment with provider autonomy influenced performance outcomes. Additionally, contextual factors such as trust in the system mitigated programme delays, while decentralised procurement systems enhanced P4P effectiveness. These findings highlight the need for context-specific adaptation when implementing P4P programmes. The study advances the application of CLDs for cross-country health system analysis, highlighting both their potential and limitations in comparing health interventions across diverse settings
Harvesting resilience: the role of social capital in driving adaptive behaviour among Iranian farmers
No full textClimate change is a global challenge affecting human health, livelihood, and food security, and poses a serious threat to agriculture. Adaptation measures are needed to mitigate climate change impacts. Social capital offers a perspective on differences in adaptation to climate change. Nevertheless, the fundamental role of social capital in agricultural adaptation isn’t fully understood. Therefore, this study investigates how social networks, norms, participation, trust, solidarity, beliefs and risk perception affect adaptation among Iranian farmers. Survey data were collected from 250 farmers randomly selected in Susangerd city, Khuzestan Province, Iran. An integrated model combining social capital, beliefs, and risk perceptions is used. Structural equation modelling results show the model explained 69% of the variance in adaptation behaviour and 66% and 40% of the variances in risk perception and climate beliefs, respectively. Such results demonstrate the robustness of the model in predicting adaptation strategies. Based on the findings, social solidarity and climate beliefs were the most effective predictors of risk perception, while farmers’ social networks were the most important predictors of behaviour. This study, by confirming the importance of social capital on the farmers’ beliefs, risk understanding and adaptation behaviour, offers suggestions for fostering and implementing more practical adaptation strategies
Bridging Time Horizons: A Methodological Study of Scenario-Building in Parliamentary Foresight
No full textShort- and mid-term macroeconomic and labour market impacts of migration in Austria: an agent-based modelling perspective
No full textLarge-scale migration events, driven by geopolitical instability, conflicts, and climate change, represent a significant challenge for advanced economies like Austria. Understanding the economic and labour market consequences of such influxes is essential for assessing economic resilience and enabling evidence-based policymaking. The existing literature typically employs equilibrium models or empirical “natural experiments” to provide insights, particularly regarding long-term impacts. However, there remains a need for analytical tools capable of capturing short-run dynamics, out-of-equilibrium adjustments, and detailed distributional effects across heterogeneous economic sectors and population groups.
This study investigates the potential short- to mid-term economic and labour market impacts of a large-scale, hypothetical yet plausible migration scenario in Austria. We simulate the arrival of 250,000 refugees over six quarters, inspired by Austria's 2015 experience. The primary objective is to assess the resilience of the Austrian economy and labour market to such a shock, focusing specifically on detailed macroeconomic outcomes and distributional effects across various population cohorts.
We employ a large-scale, empirically calibrated macroeconomic agent-based model (ABM). The ABM features interacting heterogeneous agents (households, firms, banks, government) operating with bounded rationality and behavioural heuristics across labour, credit, and goods/services markets via search-and-matching mechanisms. A key innovation is the highly disaggregated household sector, encompassing over 1,000 cohorts differentiated by sex, citizenship, activity status, and industry of occupation. Labour market transitions are governed by empirically estimated probabilities derived from Austrian register-based labour market career data. We compare the migration scenario against a baseline "no migration" scenario over a five-year simulation horizon.
The simulation results suggest that the Austrian economy exhibits potential resilience to the migration influx. It has a positive impact on aggregate GDP, with the GDP growth rate temporarily increasing by approximately 0.5 percentage points (p.p.) before returning to the baseline. However, GDP per capita initially drops by about 2% compared to the baseline and does not fully recover within the five-year timeframe. The additional burden on public debt is relatively modest, estimated at around 1 p.p. of GDP after five years. The labour market experiences a significant supply shock, causing the aggregate unemployment rate to increase from 6.6% to approximately 9.1%. Crucially, the impacts are highly heterogeneous:
(1) Natives are generally least affected by increased unemployment, followed by EU citizens, and then citizens of other countries. Refugees experience the largest initial increases, although their unemployment rates decrease significantly over time.
(2) Men experience slightly higher unemployment increases than women among native, EU, and other-country cohorts. Female refugees integrate notably better than male refugees.
(3) Impacts vary substantially across industries. For example, administrative and support services, as well as accommodation and food services, show the largest unemployment increases. Conversely, some industries show the capacity to absorb labour or even exhibit slight positive employment effects.
This study demonstrates the value of detailed ABMs in analysing the complex economic reality of migration. While the Austrian economy demonstrates resilience at the macro level, the short- to mid-term impacts involve a rise in aggregate unemployment and significant heterogeneity across population groups and industries. These distributional consequences underscore the need for targeted integration policies and labour market regulations that account for the differential effects of migration shocks. The ABM framework provides a powerful tool for exploring such nuances and informing policy design in response to contemporary migration challenges
LAMASUS High resolution maps (100m) of grassland management and grazing systems (for 2000, 2010 and 2018)
No full textThis data set is comprised of three grassland management (and grazing system) maps for the years 2000, 2010 and 2018 at a resolution of 100m for EU countries. These layers were created from Corine Land Cover, livestock density maps and livestock grazing maps. The layers are provided as geotiffs, with QGIS (qml) legend files. The classes with definitions are also provided in an Excel file
Region constrained terrestrial areas of conservation importance for 2030
No full textThis data repository contains updated layers of global terrestrial conservation importance based on the framework and feature data described in Jung et al. (2021). The purpose of these updated maps is to more closely support modelling efforts in global intercomparison exercises (e.g. Bending the Curve) as well as to align with Target 3 ("30x30") of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (source)