Portail HAL Paris School of Economics (PSE)
Not a member yet
5677 research outputs found
Sort by
Residential CO2 Emissions in Europe and Carbon Taxation: A Country-Level Assessment
No full textInternational audienceThis paper examines the determinants of residential CO 2 emissions, which are not covered by the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), in 19 European countries between 2000-2017. Using both static and dynamic panel models, we found strong relationships between CO 2 emissions per capita, GDP per capita, energy prices and heating needs. We then assessed the impact of European carbon taxation and show that a e20/tonne CO 2 tax lowers emissions by 1% on average. We found that this tax affects countries differently in terms of tax revenue-to-GDP ratio. Poland and the Czech Republic would have to pay the highest contribution, and Portugal and Denmark the lowest. Finally, we propose a scenario that equalizes countries' tax burdens. We show that, were Europe to redistribute all tax revenues, the main beneficiaries would be Poland and Belgium, while Denmark and Luxembourg would have to pay a surtax
On the design of public debate in social networks
No full textInternational audienceWe propose a model of the joint evolution of opinions and social relationships in a setting where social influence decays over time. The dynamics are based on bounded confidence: social connections between individuals with distant opinions are severed while new connections are formed between individuals with similar opinions. Our model naturally gives raise to strong diversity, i.e., the persistence of heterogeneous opinions in connected societies, a phenomenon that most existing models fail to capture. The intensity of social interactions is the key parameter that governs the dynamics. First, it determines the asymptotic distribution of opinions. In particular, increasing the intensity of social interactions brings society closer to consensus. Second, it determines the risk of polarization, which is shown to increase with the intensity of social interactions. Our results allow to frame the problem of the design of public debates in a formal setting. We hence characterize the optimal strategy for a social planner who controls the intensity of the public debate and thus faces a trade-off between the pursuit of social consensus and the risk of polarization. We also consider applications to political campaigning and show that both minority and majority candidates can have incentives to lead society towards polarization
Life Satisfaction and the Human Development Index Across the World
No full textInternational audienceWe use annual data on over 150 countries between 2005 and 2018 to look at the relationship between subjective well-being (both cognitive and affective) and the Human Development Index (HDI). The HDI appears to be more closely related to cognitive than affective well-being. We also consider the relationships between the three HDI components (the Income, Health, and Education Indices) and well-being, and find that, on average, the Income Index has the strongest predictive power. Importantly, we find that the three HDI components only matter equally in Western and rich countries. Our analysis contributes to the discussion about cultural sensitivity in paradigms of societal development in two ways. We first show that differences in preferences toward development aims exist. Second, we propose a weighting procedure for a culturally-sensitive version of the HDI
Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility
No full textInternational audienceMigration is a widely used adaptation strategy to climate change impacts. Yet resource constraints caused by such impacts may limit the ability to migrate, thereby leading to immobility. Here we provide a quantitative, global analysis of reduced international mobility due to resource deprivation caused by climate change. We incorporate both migration dynamics and within-region income distributions in an integrated assessment model. We show that climate change induces decreases in emigration of lowest-income levels by over 10% in 2100 for medium development and climate scenarios compared with no climate change and by up to 35% for more pessimistic scenarios including catastrophic damages. This effect would leave resource-constrained populations extremely vulnerable to both subsequent climate change impacts and increased poverty
Values, Volumes, and Price-Volume Decompositions: On Some Issues Raised (Again) by the Health Crisis
No full textInternational audienceThe health crisis has underscored the need for national accounts that can track the activity and financial situations of various groups of economic agents as quickly as possible. It also raises several questions about how real GDP aggregates quantities of heterogenous goods and services that meet very different needs whose relative priorities have been affected by the crisis, at least temporarily. We focus on two aspects of this question: the theoretical properties of aggregation by chaining at market prices for the market share of GDP and the joint problems of measurement and significance of the aggregate for its non-market components. Beyond the short-term shock, the crisis provides an opportunity to revisit some substantive issues regarding the interpretation of output and real growth indicators, issues that the post-crisis period should continue to fuel
Belief Dispersion and Convex Cost of Adjustment in the Stock Market and in the Real Economy
No full textEarly Access : SEP 2022International audienceI develop a continuous-time general equilibrium model with a continuum of states of the world and a continuum of agents endowed with heterogeneous beliefs. The model permits to analyze the interactions between financial markets and production. There is a single firm that faces convex adjustment costs and maximizes its terminal value. Equivalently, the firm uses decreasing returns to scale risk-return technology. The model is tractable and matches many of the empirical regularities in aggregate output and stock prices, such as a financial volatility that is higher than the macroeconomic volatility, skewness, kurtosis, short-term momentum, and volatility risk premium during recessions. All these aspects disappear when one assumes beliefs homogeneity or constant returns to scale. In particular, the impact of beliefs heterogeneity observed in endowment economies does not pertain when introducing production unless one assumes decreasing returns to scale in the risk-return technology. This paper was accepted by David Sraer, finance
Understanding the pathways leading to socioeconomic inequalities in HIV testing uptake in 18 sub-Saharan African countries
No full textInternational audienceObjective: To better understand the different pathways linking socioeconomic position and HIV testing uptake in 18 sub-Saharan African countries.Design: We used cross-sectional population-based surveys between 2010 and 2018.Methods: Using a potential outcomes framework and the product method, we decomposed the total effect linking wealth and recent (<12 months) HIV testing into direct effects, and indirect effects, via internal (related to individual's ability to perceive need for and to seek care) or external (ability to reach, pay for and engage in healthcare) mediators to calculate the proportion mediated (PM) by each mediator.Results: High levels of inequalities were observed in nine and 15 countries among women and men, respectively. The mediator indirect effect varied greatly across countries. The PM tended to be higher for internal than for external mediators. For instance, among women, HIV-related knowledge was estimated to mediate up to 12.1% of inequalities in Côte d’Ivoire; and up to 31.5% for positive attitudes towards people with HIV (PWH) in Senegal. For the four external mediators, the PM was systematically below 7%. Similar findings were found when repeating analyses on men for the internal mediators, with higher PM by attitudes towards PWH (up to 39.9% in Senegal).Conclusions: Our findings suggest that wealth-related inequalities in HIV testing may be mediated by internal more than external characteristics, with important variability across countries. Overall, the important heterogeneities in the pathways of wealth-related inequalities in HIV testing illustrate that addressing inequalities requires tailored efforts and upstream interventions
Influenza Mortality in French Regions after the Hong Kong Flu Pandemic
No full textInfluenza mortality has dramatically decreased in France since the 1950s. Annual death rates peaked during two pandemics: the Asian flu (1956-57) and the Hong-Kong flu (1969-1970). This study’s objective is to evaluate whether the second pandemic created a structural change in the dynamics of influenza mortality in France. We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas) to estimate statistical models to find whether a structural change happened and to explain the differences in mortality rates across geographic areas. Influenza mortality increased between 1950 and 1969, and decreased from 1970 onward. The Hong-Kong flu is identified as the event of a structural break. After the break, geographical differences are less explained by regional characteristics such as income, density or aging ratio. Hong Kong flu was found to be associated with a major change in influenza mortality in France. Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemics. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions
Taming the Global Financial Cycle: Central Banks as Shock Absorbers in the First Era of Globalization
No full textInternational audienceThe Classical Gold Standard period, with high capital mobility and fixed-exchange rates, is usually seen as the extreme case of international constraints on monetary policy. Contrary to this view, we show how central bank balance sheets offset the effects of international shocks on domestic interest rates. In contrast, in the United States, a gold standard country without a central bank, the reaction of money market rates was two to four times stronger than that of interest rates in countries with a central bank. Our study is based on the monthly balance sheets of all central banks in the world (i.e., 21) from 1891–1913
La périurbanisation de la pauvreté : politique de soutien à la propriété et inégalités socio-spatiales en France
No full textInternational audienceThis article examines the role played by assisted loans in the access to homeownership and in the residential segregation of low-income households in France. During the 1996-2006 period, no-interest loans affected 1.4 million households and were the main policy tool favoring homeownership. We rely on French housing surveys (INSEE) and administrative records on no-interest loans (SFGFAS) to compare the position of social groups in the housing market before and after the introduction of no-interest loans. We show that, in a context of increasing housing prices, no-interest loans have limited the exclusion of lower- and middle-class households from the new-build housing market, especially outside the Paris region. Nevertheless, households with no-interest loans tend to relocate to peripheral areas characterized not only by a lower proportion of professionals and managers relative to central areas, but also by lower access to public transportation, the childcare system, high schools, and job opportunities. Moreover, in-depth interviews at the individual level suggest that low-income households had no clear perception of the social and physical disconnections they would experience when purchasing their new homes.Cet article examine le rôle joué par les prêts aidés dans l’accès à la propriété et la ségrégation résidentielle des ménages modestes en France. Au cours de la période 1996-2006, le Prêt à taux zéro a bénéficié à 1,4 million de ménages et constitue la principale mesure pour favoriser l’accession à la propriété. L’analyse s’appuie sur les enquêtes Logement (Insee), les registres administratifs du Prêt à taux zéro (SFGFAS) et des entretiens approfondis auprès d’accédants. Elle compare la position de différentes catégories socioprofessionnelles sur le marché du logement avant et après l’introduction du programme. Dans un contexte de hausse des prix de l’immobilier, on constate que le Prêt à taux zéro a limité l’exclusion des ménages modestes du marché du logement neuf, en particulier en dehors de la région parisienne. Pour autant, les ménages ayant bénéficié d’un Prêt à taux zéro ont eu tendance à s’installer plus souvent dans les zones périurbaines et rurales, caractérisées par une moindre proportion de cadres et de professions intellectuelles supérieures si on les compare aux centres villes. De plus, les entretiens suggèrent que les ménages modestes n’avaient pas une perception claire de l’éloignement géographique généré par l’accession à la propriété, ni de ses conséquences sur leur mode de vie et l’accès à certains services publics (systèmes collectifs de garde d’enfants, transports en commun, lycées, opportunités d’emplois)