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Migration and Knowledge Diffusion: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia
No full textInternational audienceDuring the early 1990s Germany offered temporary protection to 700,000 Yugoslavian refugees fleeing war. By 2000, many had been repatriated. We exploit this natural experiment to investigate the role of returning migrants in boosting export performance upon their return. Using confidential German administrative data we find that industries with 10% more returning refugees exhibit larger exports between the pre- and post-war periods by 1 to 1.6%. We use exogenous allocation rules for asylum seekers within Germany as an instrument to deal with endogeneity concerns. We show evidence pointing to productivity shifts as the main mechanism behind our results. Consistently, we find our results are driven by refugees in occupations more apt to transfer knowledge, technologies and best-practices
Les défis technologiques et organisationnels de l’emploi des seniors
No full textInternational audienceFin 2023, le taux d’emploi des 55-64 ans approchait les 59 % en France contre 75 % en Allemagne et près de 78 % en Suède. Pour concrétiser les bénéfices des réformes des retraites, il est nécessaire de relever le défi de l’accroissement de la part des seniors en emploi. Deux pistes doivent être privilégiées : l’adaptation aux changements technologiques par la formation tout au long de la vie et la prise en compte des demandes spécifiques des seniors quant à l’organisation de leur environnement de travail
Intergenerational equity and infinite-population ethics: A survey
No full textInternational audienceThis article surveys the recent literature on infinite-horizon intergenerational social welfare and infinite-population ethics, reviewing the negative and positive results about the existence or constructibility of social preference relations and social welfare functions for infinite populations. Impossibility results primarily refer to the tension between Pareto and Anonymity (or inequality aversion). Positive results include characterizations of core social preference relations with which any relation satisfying desirable properties must be compatible, as well as overtaking criteria, asymptotic criteria, averaging criteria, hyperreal criteria, and criteria that focus on the worst-off
Essais sur le changement climatique, l'incertitude et la dynamique des populations
No full textThis PhD thesis manuscript presents three research projects focused on key issues related to climate change, policy design, and demographic impacts. It highlights the importance of integrating uncertainty into climate strategies and exploring the relationship between population dynamics and climate change in an innovative way.In the first chapter, the impact of considering climate uncertainties ex ante on optimal greenhouse gas emission trajectories is analyzed. Using a compact climate model, developed from state-of-the-art physics and calibrated Bayesianly with CMIP6 experiments and historical data, the study reveals a more ambitious CO2 mitigation trajectory in cost-benefit analysis. This results in a reduction of the optimal carbon budget and the maximum average temperature, as well as an increase in the carbon price by 2030. This precautionary effect is also observed when considering probabilistic targets related to climate change indicators.The impact of climate change on fertility is poorly understood and under-studied. Most studies focus on specific regions or extreme events. The second chapter addresses this gap by examining the effect of climate change on fertility in low- and middle-income countries using a fertility rate database for 590 regions in 65 countries, representing 3.8 billion people in 2020. Using this data and weather information, the short-term impacts of temperature and precipitation shocks are first estimated: fertility temporarily decreases nine months after exposure to a temperature shock, while it increases following a precipitation shock during pregnancy, possibly due to a rise in premature births. In the longer term, temperature shocks have little impact on fertility, but positive precipitation shocks are correlated with increased fertility. Projecting these results onto SSP-RCP scenarios estimates the future impacts of climate change on global demographics: under these assumptions, climate change would lead to a significant population increase, particularly in scenarios with the highest warming and in regions with the highest fertility rates.Finally, the study decomposes the carbon footprint by age across many countries. Household budget surveys and a statistical model inspired by a collective household model are used to allocate consumption within households. This allows for the construction of age-specific carbon footprint profiles using Input-Output databases. The study identifies a generally increasing age-related emission profile shaped like a camel, with peaks around ages 30 and 60, related to scale effects within households. Moreover, it shows that population aging has had only a marginal impact on the dynamics of France’s carbon footprint. By decomposing carbon footprint profiles by age, period, and cohort, it is found that some generations, especially those born between 1945 and 1950, have had significantly higher lifetime carbon footprints compared to subsequent generations. Ignoring generational effects leads to an estimation of a minor influence of population aging on greenhouse gas emission trajectories, while incorporating them into the model results in a significant reduction in the cumulative carbon footprint by 2100.Ce manuscrit de thèse de doctorat présente trois projets de recherche axés sur des questions clés liées au changement climatique, à la conception des politiques et aux impacts démographiques. Il souligne l'importance d'intégrer l'incertitude dans les stratégies climatiques et d'explorer la relation entre les dynamiques de population et le changement climatique de manière innovante. Dans un premier chapitre, on analyse l'incidence de la prise en compte textit{ex ante} des incertitudes climatiques sur les trajectoires optimales d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre. A l'aide d'un modèle climat compact, construit à partir de l'état de l'art de la physique et calibré de manière bayésienne sur les expériences CMIP6 et les données historiques, on met en évidence une trajectoire de mitigation des émissions de CO2 plus ambitieuse en analyse coût bénéfice. Celle-ci se traduit par un diminution du budget carbone optimal et de la température maximale moyenne ainsi que par une hausse du prix du carbone en 2030. Cet effet de précaution peut aussi être observé en considérant des cibles probabilisées relative à des indicateurs du réchauffement climatique. L'impact du changement climatique sur la fertilité est mal compris et trop peu étudié. La plupart des études se concentrent sur des régions spécifiques ou des événements extrêmes. Ce deuxième chapitre aborde cette lacune en examinant l'effet du changement climatique sur la fertilité dans les pays à revenu faible et intermédiaire en utilisant une base de données sur les taux de fertilité pour 590 régions dans 65 pays, représentant 3.8 milliards d'habitants en 2020. A partir de cette dernière et avec des données météorologiques on estime tout d'abord les impacts d'un choc de température et de précipitation de court terme : la fécondité diminue de manière temporaire neuf mois après l'exposition à un choc de température, tandis qu'elle augmente en cas de choc lors de la grossesse, peut-être du fait d'un hausse des naissances prématurées. Sur le plus long terme, un choc de température n'a que peu d'incidence sur la fécondité mais un choc positif de précipitation est corrélé avec une augmentation de la fécondité. En projetant les résultats obtenus sur les scénarios SSP-RCP on estime les impacts futurs du réchauffement climatique sur la démographie mondiale : selon ces hypothèses, le réchauffement climatique entrainerait une hausse significative de la population en particulier dans les scénarios avec le réchauffement climatique le plus important et les régions de taux de fécondité les plus élevés. Finalement, on décompose l'empreinte carbone par âge dans de nombreux pays du monde. Pour cela, sont utilisées des enquêtes de budget des ménages et un imputation de la consommation au sein du ménage est permise grâce à un modèle statistique inspiré d'un modèle de ménage collectif. Ensuite, il est possible de construire des profils d'empreinte carbone par âge au moyen de bases de données Entrée-Sortie. On met en évidence un profil d'émission par âge globalement croissant de l'âge et en forme de chameau, avec deux bosses à environ 30 et 60 ans, un phénomène lié aux gains d'échelle au sein du ménage. En outre, on montre que le vieillissement de la population n'a eu qu'une incidence marginale sur la dynamique de l'empreinte carbone française. En décomposant les profils d'empreinte carbone par âge, période, et cohorte et on met en évidence les résultats suivants. Certaines générations, en particulier celles nées entre 1945 et 1950, semblent avoir eu une empreinte carbone tout au long de leur vie significativement plus élevée que les générations suivantes. Ignorer les effets générationnels conduit à estimer que le vieillissement de la population aura une influence faible sur la trajectoire d'émission de gaz à effet de serre, alors que les incorporer dans le modèle aboutit à une réduction importante de l'empreinte carbone cumulée en 2100
Essais sur l'inégalité et la politique fiscale
No full textThis dissertation comprises five chapters on inequality and fiscal policy.Chapter 1 builds and analyzes a new global database of effective tax rates on capital and labor, and establishes a new stylized fact: while effective capital tax rates have fallen since 1965 in developed countries, in developing countries they have recently risen. In many countries, globalization appears to have supported governments’ability to tax capital.In Chapter 2, data on public expenditures complement the Chapter 1 data on tax revenues, and we estimate the incidence of both along comprehensive pretax national income distributions, worldwide since 1980. We find that redistribution rises with development, but this is entirely due to transfers; tax progressivity is uncorrelated with per capita income. Redistribution has increased in most world regions, except in Africa and Eastern Europe, where it has stagnated.Shifting gears from worldwide estimates to single-country studies, Chapter 3 examines the midcentury decline in inequality in the United States of America. New attention to archival data reveals that the decline in inequality favored the middle class more than the working poor—with one exception: Midcentury wage compression lasted for the entire postwar era. I explain one generation-defining trend with another, and demonstrate the causal impact of World War II service on postwar wages, particularly for those at the bottom of the wage distribution.The fourth chapter estimates of the full distribution of all national income in Australia for the period 1991 to 2018, and find that in fact inequality of post-tax national income is lower and increased less than inequality of survey-based (post-transfer, disposable) income between 1991 and 2018. Australian inequality is much lower than that of the United States, and similar to that of France, with those at the bottom of the income distribution faring noticeably better in France and Australia than in the US.Finally, in Chapter 5, we estimate pre- and post-tax income distributions for Canada and its provinces from 1982 to 2021. Since the mid-2000s, income inequality has decreased slightly although it remains far above the levels observed in the early 1980s. Across Canadian provinces, Ontario has consistently had higher inequality than Quebec although the gap has closed in recent years. Quebec has the most progressive tax and transfer system. During the pandemic, post-tax income inequality initially fell with large temporary transfer programs, but pre-tax income inequality has increased since then.Cette thèse comprend cinq chapitres sur l'inégalité et la politique fiscale. Le chapitre 1 construit et analyse une nouvelle base de données mondiale sur les taux d’imposition effectifs du capital et du travail, et établit un nouveau fait stylisé : alors que les taux d’imposition effectifs du capital ont baissé depuis 1965 dans les pays développés, ils ont récemment augmenté dans les pays en développement. Dans de nombreux pays, la mondialisation semble avoir soutenu la capacité des gouvernements à taxer le capital. Au chapitre 2, les données sur les dépenses publiques complètent les données du chapitre 1 sur les recettes fiscales, et nous estimons l’incidence des deux sur les distributions globales du revenu national avant impôt, dans le monde entier depuis 1980. Nous constatons que la redistribution augmente avec le développement, mais cela est entièrement dû aux transferts ; la progressivité de l’impôt n’est pas corrélée au revenu par habitant. La redistribution a augmenté dans la plupart des régions du monde, sauf en Afrique et en Europe de l’Est, où elle a stagné. En passant des estimations mondiales aux études sur un seul pays, le chapitre 3 examine le déclin des inégalités au milieu du siècle aux États-Unis d’Amérique. Une nouvelle attention portée aux données d’archives révèle que la baisse des inégalités a favorisé la classe moyenne plus que les travailleurs pauvres, à une exception près : la compression des salaires du milieu du siècle a duré toute la période d’après-guerre. J’explique une tendance générationnelle par une autre et je démontre l’impact causal du service militaire de la Seconde Guerre mondiale sur les salaires d’après-guerre, en particulier pour ceux qui se trouvent au bas de la distribution des salaires. Le quatrième chapitre estime la distribution complète de l’ensemble du revenu national en Australie pour la période 1991-2018 et constate qu’en fait, l’inégalité du revenu national après impôt est plus faible et a moins augmenté que l’inégalité du revenu disponible après transferts entre 1991 et 2018. L’inégalité australienne est bien inférieure à celle des États-Unis et similaire à celle de la France : les personnes au bas de la distribution des revenus s’en sortent sensiblement mieux en France et en Australie qu’aux États-Unis.Enfin, au chapitre 5, nous estimons les distributions de revenus avant et après impôt pour le Canada et ses provinces de 1982 à 2021. Depuis le milieu des années 2000, les inégalités de revenus ont légèrement diminué, bien qu’elles restent bien supérieures aux niveaux observés au début des années 1980. Dans l’ensemble des provinces canadiennes, l’Ontario a toujours connu des inégalités plus élevées que le Québec, bien que l’écart se soit réduit ces dernières années. Le Québec a le système fiscal et de transferts le plus progressif. Pendant la pandémie, les inégalités de revenus après impôt ont d’abord diminué grâce à d’importants programmes de transferts temporaires, mais les inégalités de revenus avant impôt ont augmenté depuis lors
Alternatives to plurality rule for single-winner elections: When do they make a difference?
No full textInternational audienceDeclining levels of turnout and growing distrust in political elites are often seen as symptoms of a crisis of representative democracy. Various proposals of reform have been made to reinvigorate representation and political participation. This paper focuses on one aspect of that debate: finding an alternative to FPTP, which is the electoral rule most frequently used in single-member districts, but which is criticized, among others, for allowing only a limited expression of voters' preferences. Many alternative rules are in use or have been suggested, such as Two-Round majority, Instant Runoff, Approval Voting, Majority Judgement, or Range Voting. The literature on these decision rules has concentrated on their formal properties. Yet, we know surprisingly little about how frequently these rules would lead to different outcomes in normal electoral settings. This paper improves our understanding of these rules by examining their mechanical effects. We start from data on voters' party utilities from “real-world” settings, based on CSES data. This allows simulating and comparing the outcomes of different electoral rules under a variety of distributions of voters' party preferences. We then analyze how frequently they lead to different outcomes and identify the contextual characteristics that explain these differences. For the latter question, we focus on a number of party system or electorate's characteristics, which have been highlighted in debates on challenges to representation (such as ideological polarization, party system fragmentation, or affective polarization)
Perception, investments, and newborn's outcomes: the perception of a newborn's health and its influence on parental investment and health outcomes: Evidence from ELFE cohort
No full textI study whether the parental perception of a newborn's health affects their investments in the child and their health outcomes later in childhood. I use the medical cutoff of low birth weight (<2.5kg.), a historically standard cutoff used to identify infants at high mortality risk. While the economic literature has already studied the implications similar cutoffs (<1.5kg.) have on children's development, most of it has focused on medical treatments as the primary mechanism. In this paper, I investigate whether parents also respond to this label by adapting their investment decisions. To answer this question, I use the French Longitudinal Study of Children ( Étude Longitudinale Française depuis l'Enfance-ELFE ). Using a regression discontinuity design approach, I find an improvement in nutritional outcomes for those that, on top of being low birth weight, are premature. I do not find strong evidence of direct medical intervention at birth based only on the cutoff. Conversely, I encounter that parents respond to children being labeled low birth weight. This is particularly so when looking at parental investments in pre-term children. While doctors might have an indirect role-through advice and recommendations to parents-ignoring parental responses at birth could lead to an under/overestimation of the returns of early-life interventions by the medical community
The effect of patients' socioeconomic status in rehabilitation centers on the efficiency and performance
No full textInternational audienceBACKGROUND: Patients’ socioeconomic status on hospitals’ efficiency in controlling for clinical component characteristics may have a role that has few been studied in rehabilitation centers.DESIGN: Because of the national health insurance system, rehabilitation centers are free of charge. To answer whether a patient’s socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with efficiency and performance, we use a counterfactual analysis to get the patient’s SES effect “as if” the patient’s case was identical to whatever hospital. We restrained the data to patients from public acute care units where the decision on rehabilitation sector admission is based on availability, limiting bias by confounding factors. Besides, an analysis of six pathologies led to the same results.SETTING: An exhaustive, detailed administrative database on rehabilitation center stays in France. To define the patients’ socioeconomic status, we use two sources of data: the information collected at the time of the patient’s entry into rehabilitation care and the information collected during the patient’s stay in acute care. This double information avoids possible loss of socio-economic details between the two admissions.POPULATION: Patients recruited were exhaustively admitted over the year 2018 for stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure, or total hip replacement in France in the acute care unit and then in a rehab center. Mainly the elderly population. Information on patients’ demography, comorbidities, and SES are coded due to the reimbursement system. Different dimensions controlling for factors (hospital ownership, patient clinical characteristics, rehabilitation care specificities, medical staff detailed information, and patients’ socioeconomic status), were progressively added to control for any differences in baseline data between the two groups.METHODS: We assess rehabilitation centers’ efficiency by combining selected outcome quality indicators (Physical score improvement, Cognitive score improvement, Mortality, Return-to-home). The specific Providers’ Activity Index is used to get the performance index.CONCLUSIONS: The performance of healthcare institutions is correlated not only to the case mix of their patients but also to the socioeconomic status of the patients admitted. The performance needs to be seen in light of patients’ socioeconomic status
Voting Rights, Agenda Control and Information Aggregation
No full textInternational audienceThis paper examines the comparative properties of voting rules based on the richness of their ballot spaces, assuming a given distribution of voting rights. We focus on how well voting rules aggregate the information dispersed among voters. We consider how different voting rules affect both voters’ decisions at the voting stage and the incentives of the agenda-setter, who decides whether to put the proposal to a vote. Without agenda-setter, the voting efficiency of rules is higher when their ballot space is richer. Moreover, full-information efficiency requires full divisibility of the votes. In the presence of an agenda-setter, we uncover a novel trade-off: in some cases, rules with high voting efficiency provide worse incentives to the agenda-setter to select good proposals. This negative effect can be large enough to wash out the higher voting efficiency of even the most efficient rules
Cover-Ups
No full textInternational audienceLengthy cover-ups are a repeated feature of the organizational landscape. This paper studies executives’ optimal cover-up strategies given the penalties and the evolving beliefs of strategic outside parties who investigate malfeasance. The analysis shows that organizational self-policing and external investigation are strategic substitutes in any given period. Over time, successful cover-ups increase the incentive to cover up, and changes in the current environment, such as an increased awareness of the harmful effects of the employee’s actions, can result in a reduction in cover-ups in the short term but an increase in the long term. We analyze how fines for executives and rewards for investigators affect the welfare of different stakeholders. We extend the model to study two alternative prosecutorial regimes: a prosecutor who can commit to an investigation policy and a long-lived prosecutor who internalizes the impact of their early decisions on a subsequent prosecutor’s incentives