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Inference after discretizing unobserved heterogeneity
No full textWe consider a linear panel data model with nonseparable two-way unobserved heterogeneity corresponding to a linear version of the model studied in Bonhomme et al. (2022). We show that inference is possible in this setting using a straightforward two-step estimation procedure inspired by existing discretization approaches. In the first step, we construct a discrete approximation of the unobserved heterogeneity by (k-means) clustering observations separately across the individual (i) and time (t) dimensions. In the second step, we estimate a linear model with two-way group fixed effects specific to each cluster. Our approach shares similarities with methods from the double machine learning literature, as the underlying moment conditions exhibit the same type of bias-reducing properties. We provide a theoretical analysis of a cross-fitted version of our estimator, establishing its asymptotic normality at parametric rate under the condition max(N, T ) = o(min(N, T ) 3 ). Simulation studies demonstrate that our methodology achieves excellent finite-sample performance, even when T is negligible with respect to N
Unequal inequality aversion within and among countries and generations
No full textInternational audienceSuppose that, for whatever reason, it is decided that inequalities within countries are more offensive than inequalities between countries, and that inequalities between populations living together are more offensive than inequalities between generations living in different times. Can a social welfare function express that preference? We show that it is actually difficult to incorporate such a localist preference into a social welfare function, except in a limited way (i.e., from a situation of specific similarity between countries). We also show that in order to obtain such preferences, the relative size of inequality aversion within and between countries may be counter-intuitive in some relevant cases, in the sense that a greater inequality aversion may happen to be required across countries than within countries. This research highlights new social welfare functions that aggregate the outcomes of evaluations over pairs of agents
Exploring infinite population utilitarianism under strong anonymity
No full textInternational audienceWe examine utilitarian criteria for evaluating profiles of well-being among infinitely many individuals. Motivated by the non-existence of a natural 1-to-1 correspondence between people when alternatives have different population structures, with a different number of people in each generation, we impose equal treatment in the form of Strong Anonymity. We demonstrate how a novel criterion, Strongly Anonymous Utilitarianism, can be applied in the Ramsey model, leading to an efficient and sustainable stream. We show how the criterion is the result of combining Strong Anonymity with other regularity axioms (Monotonicity, Finite Completeness, and continuity axioms) as well as axioms of equity, population ethics, sensitivity, and separability. We relate it to other strongly anonymous utilitarian criteria
Does Feasibility Explain the Unequal Development of Working From Home?
No full textUsing rich historical surveys on job tasks and advanced machine learning techniques, we study which jobs can be moved from the office to home over three decades in France.The share of jobs that can be done from home has increased steadily from 14% in 1991 to 45% in 2021. At the same time, actual Working From Home (WFH) remained limited to less than one fifth of its full potential before the Covid-19 crisis and is still below it in 2021.The growth of WFH is largely unrelated to the evolution of job tasks, implying that the main obstacles to WFH have not been technical constraints. Low-skilled employees in particular have jobs that have long been largely teleworkable but they were barely teleworking before the Covid-19 crisis and remained still below 50% of their full potential during it. This pattern is not explained by differences in workers' desire to telework. It implies that the well-known large inequality in access to WFH along the earnings distribution cannot be attributed only to feasibility constraints and is potentially inefficient.</p
Introduction. Paris 2024, (en)jeux olympiques un regard pluridisciplinaire
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Moral Force: Leaders' Actions and Public Health Compliance in Crisis
No full textCharismatic leaders shape public sentiment but may weaken institutions by prioritizing personal appeal over trust in government. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Mexican president disregarded stay-at-home guidelines. We assess the impact on social distancing using granular mobility and electoral data. Applying a dynamic difference-in-difference design and leveraging the timing of social distancing announcements and presidential support, we find increased mobility in pro-president areas, leading to 38% more COVID-19 cases and 21% more deaths. Our findings suggest the president's example, rather than partisan differences, drove these effects
Cultural Remittances and Modern Fertility
No full textWe argue that migrants played a significant role in the diffusion of the demographic transition from France to the rest of Europe in the late 19 th century. Employing novel data on French immigration from other European regions from 1850 to 1930, we find that higher immigration to France translated into lower fertility in the region of origin after a few decades -both in crossregion regressions for various periods, and in a panel setting with region fixed effects. These results are robust to the inclusion of a variety of controls, and across multiple specifications. We also find that immigrants who themselves became French citizens achieved lower fertility, particularly those who moved to French regions with the lowest fertility levels. We interpret these findings in terms of cultural remittances, consistently with insights from a theoretical framework where migrants act as vectors of cultural diffusion, spreading new information, social norms and preferences pertaining to modern fertility to their regions of origin
L'économie comportementale murmure à l'oreille du juriste
No full textInternational audienceLaw and economics primarily focus on various legal rules' capacity to rectify structural inefficiencies stemming from market failures, such as those related to preventive or criminal behaviors. Recent advancements in behavioral economics provide valuable insights into how economic agents respond to the rules they face, offering new perspectives for designing a range of legal rules and procedures. This article provides an overview of these developments as they apply to civil liability regimes, the design of criminal procedure, and criminal policy.Longtemps confinée à l’efficacité de la protection des droits de propriété nécessaires aux échanges de marché, l’analyse économique du droit trouve en grande partie ses origines dans la nécessité de pallier les défaillances de marché associées à la remise en cause des conditions qui rendent leur fonctionnement efficace. Cette branche de l’économie s’intéresse en particulier à la capacité de différentes règles juridiques à corriger les inefficacités structurelles qui en découlent, par exemple en matière de comportements de prévention des risques liés aux activités humaines ou encore de comportements délictuels. Les développements récents de l’économie comportementale apportent un éclairage nouveau sur la réponse des acteurs de l’économie aux règles qui leur sont appliquées, et conduisent en particulier à un renouvellement profond des recommandations de l’économie en matière d’élaboration des règles de droit. Cet article en présente un panorama, appliqué notamment aux régimes de responsabilité civile et aux modalités d’application de la politique pénale
Simple relational contracts and the dynamics of social capital
No full textInternational audienceThis article proposes a dynamic model to examine the structure of “simple” relational contracts, obeying realistic properties that can be easily understood and audited by both parties. In such relationships, the need to offer each supplier a large enough share of future business to deter cheating limits the number of relationships a buyer can sustain. Trade is thus restricted to durable relationships, a form of social capital. Nevertheless, exogenous stochastic shocks sometimes prevent suppliers from fulfilling their promises and relationships are constantly dissolving and later renewed. Moreover, the coming of a crisis, where stochastic shocks are more probable, can lead to the quick rupture of some relationships as there is less expected future business to incentivize all suppliers. New relationships can later be formed, but this takes time due to search frictions. This suggests new connections between the theory of relational contracting and the macroeconomic analysis of recessions
Colonialism on the Cheap: The French Empire 1830-1962
No full textHow much did France pay for its colonial empire? Did colonies benefit from large transfers from French taxpayers and private investors, or were they on the contrary drained of their capital? So far, Jacques Marseille (1984) was the only attempt to investigate these questions, by deducting from the structural trade deficit of the French colonies that they were a heavy financial burden for France.We collect novel budgetary and loan data from archives and compute public monetary flows between France and the colonies between 1833 and 1962. We also provide figures of colonial private investment through the Paris Stock Exchange. Public expenditure spent by France on the empire only represented1.3% of its GDP, of which four fifths were in the military. The persistent trade balance deficits of French colonies did not correspond to large public or private capital transfers, as they were in fact counterbalanced by military expenditure from the Metropole. Once accounting for this, the colonial drain of the French empire is comparable to British India