Portail HAL Paris School of Economics (PSE)
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Économie comportementale et psychologie clinique face aux défis contemporains. Entretien avec Pr Nicolas Jacquemet
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Quelle politique migratoire en Europe pour les prochaines années : dépasser les idées préconçues !
No full textInternational audienceQuelle politique migratoire en Europe pour les prochaines années : dépasser les idées préconçues
L'Europe et la question migratoire
No full textInternational audienceL'Europe et la question migratoire
Using Artificial Intelligence to Advance the Research and Development of Orphan Drugs
No full textInternational audienceWhile artificial intelligence has successful and innovative applications in common medicine, could its application facilitate research on rare diseases? This study explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in orphan drug research, focusing on how AI can address three major barriers: high financial risk, development complexity, and low trialability. This paper begins with an overview of orphan drug development and AI applications, defining key concepts and providing a background on the regulatory framework of and AI’s role in medical research. Next, it examines how AI can lower financial risks by streamlining drug discovery and development processes, analyzing complex data, and predicting outcomes to improve our understanding of rare diseases. This study then explores how AI can enhance clinical trials through simulations and virtual trials, compensating for the limited patient populations available for rare disease research. Finally, it discusses the broader implications of integrating AI in orphan drug development, emphasizing the potential for AI to accelerate drug discovery and improve treatment success rates, and highlights the need for ongoing innovation and regulatory support to maximize the benefits of AI-driven research in healthcare. Based on those results, we discuss the implications for traditional and AI-powered business in the drug industry
The Many Channels of Firm's Adjustment to Energy Shocks: Evidence from France
No full textInternational audienceBased on firm-level data in the French manufacturing sector, we find that firms adapt quickly, strongly and through multiple channels to energy shocks, even though electricity and gas bills represent a small share of their total costs. Over the period 1996–2019, faced with an idiosyncratic energy price increase, firms reduce their energy demand, improve their energy efficiency, increase intermediate inputs imports and optimize energy use across plants. Firms are also able to pass-through the cost shock fully into their export prices. Their production, exports and employment fall. A consequence of these multiple adjustment mechanisms is that the fall in profits is either non-significant, small or specific to only the most energy-intensive firms. We also find that the impact of electricity shocks has weakened over time, suggesting that only firms able to adapt their production process to energy cost shocks have survived. Importantly, when faced with large electricity and gas price increases, firms are less able to reduce their consumption. These results shed light on the mechanisms of resilience of the European manufacturing sector in the context of the present energy crisis
An approximation approach to dynamic programming with unbounded returns
No full textInternational audienceWe study stochastic dynamic programming with recursive utility in settings where multiplicity of values is only attributed to unbounded returns. That is, we consider Koopmans aggregators that, when artificially restricted to be bounded, satisfy the traditional Blackwell’s discounting condition (as it certainly happens with time-additive aggregators). We argue that, when the truncation is removed, the sequence of truncated values converges to the relevant fixed point of the untruncated Bellman operator, whenever it exists, and diverges otherwise. The experiment provides a natural selection criterion, corresponding to an extension of the recursive utility from bounded to unbounded returns
Investissement social et nouvelles formes de pauvreté. Essais sur la mise en oeuvre et l’évaluation de politiques sociales et familiales en France
No full textThis thesis explores early childcare and activation policies, fundamental within the social investment paradigm, through two large field experiments in France, supported by the National Family Allowance Fund. In the first chapter, with Julien Combe, we consider access to daycare as a matching problem. We propose market design models to define assignment mechanisms and analyse the consequences of design choices in a field experiment. The problem is akin to school choice, but specific constraints affect the definition and scope of stable matchings. Our algorithms provide Student Optimal Fair Assignments (SOFA) in different versions of the problem. Our analysis focuses on the Matthew effect, demonstrating how design and policy choices influence it. Our toolspromote fairness and transparency in assignment processes.Chapters 2 and 3 analyse data from an intensive experimental programme aimed at low-income single-parent families in France, implemented from 2018 to 2022. In Chapter 2, I analyse the effects on labour market participation and poverty, and how wrong we would have been not to use a randomised controlled trial. The analyses reveal initially negative effects that diminish over time. Participants have higher employment rates than other comparison groups, but this difference is entirely due to selection bias. This bias is so strong that estimates using the next best identification strategy - modern doubly robust differences-in-differences - fail to include experimental estimates within confidence intervals. Overall, the programme has no average effect on labour market participation and poverty after the end of the training. There are heterogeneous treatment effects by number of children at baseline.In Chapter 3, with Alexandra Galitzine, we challenge the narrative of “making work pay” for single-parent families in France. The 2019 reform of in-work benefits (Prime d’activité) was adopted contemporaneously with this programme. The intervention directly provided individualized and detailed information on the socio-fiscal system in a year-long support programme, likely to have further reduced various barriers to employment. We use this experiment to measure low-income single-parent families’ reactions to incentives after the reform. Our primary contribution lies in estimating counterfactual distributions using experimental assignment variations. We find high labour income elasticities for participants, indicating significant disincentives to employment and increased in-work poverty. The programme’s effects on family structure vary based on the number of children, highlighting the complex interplay between policy incentives and poverty dynamics. We coined the term “Assistaxation” to describe the phenomenon of heavily taxing the economic, physical, and mental resources of those accessing public assistance, leaving them with little means to escape.Cette thèse explore les politiques d’accueil du jeune enfant et et les politiques d’activation, fondamentales dans le paradigme de l’investissement social, à travers deux grandes expérimentations de terrain en France, soutenues par la Caisse nationale des allocations familiales.Dans le premier chapitre, avec Julien Combe, nous abordons l’accès en crèche comme un problème d’appariement. Nous proposons des modèles de market design pour définir les mécanismes d’attribution et analyser les conséquences des choix de conception dans une expérimentation de terrain. Le problème est similaire au choix d’école, mais des contraintes spécifiques affectent la définition et la gamme des appariements stables. Nos algorithmes fournissent des attributions équitables optimales pour les familles (SOFA) dans les différentes versions du problème. Notre analyse porte sur l’effet Matthieu, montrant comment les choix de conception et de politique l’influencent. Nos outils favorisent l’équité et la transparence dans les processus d’attribution.Les chapitres 2 et 3 analysent les données d’un programme expérimental intensif d’accompagnement global visant les familles monoparentales en situation de précarité en France, mis en oeuvre de 2018 à 2022. Dans le chapitre 2, j’analyse les effets sur la participation au marché du travail et la pauvreté, et à quel point nous aurions eu tort de ne pas avoir utilisé un essai randomisé contrôlé. Les analysent révèlent des effets initialement négatifs qui s’estompent avec le temps. Les participants ont des taux d’emploi plus élevés que les autres groupes de comparaison, mais cette différence est entièrement due au biais de sélection. Ce dernier est si fort que les estimations utilisant la prochaine meilleure stratégie d’identification - les différences en différences modernes et doublement robustes - ne parviennent pas à inclure les estimations expérimentales dans les intervalles de confiance. Au final, le programme n’a pas d’effet moyen sur la participation au marché du travail et le taux de pauvreté une fois l’accompagnement terminé. Il y a en revanche des effets hétérogènes en fonction du nombre d’enfants au départ.Dans le chapitre 3, avec Alexandra Galitzine, nous remettons en question le discours de “rendre le travail payant” pour les familles monoparentales en France. La réforme de 2019 de la prime d’activité a été adoptée dans même temporalité que ce programme. L’intervention a directement fourni des informations individualisées et détaillées sur le système socio-fiscal dans un accompagnement d’un an, susceptible d’avoir réduit, davantage encore, les divers freins à l’emploi. Nous utilisons cette expérience pour mesurer les réactions des familles monoparentales pauvres aux incitations après la réforme. Notre contribution principale réside dans l’estimation des distributions contrefactuelles en utilisant les variations expérimentales des affectations. Nous trouvons des élasticités de revenu du travail élevées pour les participantes, indiquant des désincitations importantes à l’emploi et une pauvreté laborieuse accrue. Les effets du programme sur la structure familiale varient en fonction du nombre d’enfants, soulignant l’interaction complexe entre les incitations politiques et les dynamiques de pauvreté. Nous avons proposé le terme “Assistaxation” pour désigner ce phénomène consistant à taxer massivement les ressources économiques, physiques et mentales des personnes ayant recours à l’aide publique, leur laissant au passage peu de moyen de s’en extraire
The role of green financial sector initiatives in the low-carbon transition: A theory of change
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How Do Coalitions Break Down? An Alternative View
No full textInternational audienceWe propose an alternative dynamic theory of coalition breakdown. Motivated by recent coalition-splitting events of unilateral country withdrawals, we assume that: (i) the payoff-sharing rule within coalitions is not necessarily set according to any optimality and/or stability criterion and (ii) players initially behave as if the coalition will last forever. If the sharing rule is non-negotiable or if renegotiation is very costly, compliance with these rules may become unbearable for a given member because the rule, being too rigid, would make exit preferable as time passes. We examine this endogenous exit problem in the case of time-invariant sharing rules. Assuming a Nash non-cooperative game after a (potential) split where players play Markovian strategies, we characterize the solutions of the endogenous exit problem in a linear-quadratic frame with endogenous splitting time. We find that splitting countries are precisely those that used to benefit the most from the coalition. Suitable sharing rules should be used to prevent coalition splitting. When initial pollution is high, all shares should be low enough and none of the players should receive a payoff share larger than 1/2. If initial pollution is low, we provide an explicit interval for sharing-rule values to prevent the collapse of the coalition. Finally, we demonstrate that the latter properties are qualitatively consistent with the optimal behaviors and equilibrium outcomes resulting from players anticipating the end of the coalition and acting accordingly