Portail HAL Paris School of Economics (PSE)
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Losing on the home front? Battlefield casualties, media, and public support for foreign interventions
No full textInternational audienceHow domestic constituents respond to signals of weakness in foreign wars remains an important question in international relations. This paper studies the impact of battlefield casualties and media coverage on public demand for war termination. To identify the effect of troop fatalities, we leverage the timing of survey collection across respondents from nine members of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. Quasi‐experimental evidence demonstrates that battlefield casualties increase the news coverage of Afghanistan and the public demand for withdrawal. Evidence from a survey experiment replicates the main results. To shed light on the media mechanism, we leverage a news pressure design and find that major sporting matches occurring around the time of battlefield casualties drive down subsequent coverage, and significantly weaken the effect of casualties on support for war termination. These results highlight the role that media play in shaping public support for foreign military interventions
Do disinflation policies ravage central bank finances?
No full textInternational audienceAdvanced-economy central banks are currently experiencing losses. To examine how rate-tightening cycles affect central bank finances, we study the financial statements of ten advanced-economy central banks during the 1970s and 1980s, the most notable and comparable policy environment to the present. We find that central bank profits actually increased in response to the anti-inflationary measures of the 1980s. We thus discuss how central bank profits depend on their policy instruments as well as their balance-sheet position when rate tightening begins, rather than on the tightening per se. Unlike today, central banks in the 1980s avoided losses because they did not remunerate bank reserves and their balance sheets did not carry the legacy of a decade of large asset purchases at low interest rates and long maturity. Our counterfactuals show that only a combination of these factors could have triggered losses in the 1980s: none of them is sufficient on its own. When losses emerged in the late 1970s, before the Volcker shock, they were due to foreign exchange reserves depreciating. In these instances, when central banks carried them forward and did not rely on transfers from the government, there was no loss of central bank independence or their ability to fight inflation
La vulnérabilité des populations face aux changements climatiques dans les Pays de la Loire : rapport spécial Populations
No full textCe rapport spécial du GIEC des Pays de la Loire propose une analyse approfondie des vulnérabilités humaines et territoriales face aux changements climatiques. Il rappelle l’impératif d’une adaptation juste, pensée à l’échelle locale, construite avec les populations et fondée sur une solidarité active. Car anticiper les impacts ne suffira pas : il faut aussi agir sur leurs causes, pour limiter l’ampleur des perturbations à venir.
Bubbles and Crashes with Partially Sophisticated Investors
No full textInternational audienceWe analyze bubbles and crashes in a model in which some investors are partially sophisticated. While the expectations of such investors are endogenously determined in equilibrium, these are based on a coarse understanding of the market dynamics. We highlight how such investors may endogenously switch from euphoria to panic and how this may lead to equilibrium bubbles and crashes even in a purely speculative market in which information is complete and it is commonly understood that the bubble cannot grow forever. We also show how this setting can match stylized empirical facts, and we investigate whether bubbles may last longer when the share of fully rational traders increases
Plant-Level Productivity in a Declining Market: The Case of Union Locals
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How to Incorporate Children into Labor SupplyEquations? A General Framework
No full textWe provide a novel method for modeling and estimating the impact of children on labor supply decisions. We rely on the literature on equivalence scales and collective models.Our approach considers both the time and monetary costs of raising children. Using semiparametric restrictions on individual preferences, we identify the cost of children from the curvature of the labor supply equations with low data requirements. We apply the model to PSID data from the USA and investigate the women's labor supply sensitivity, the cost of children, and the women's price of time. We find that women's labor supply is highly sensitive to wage variations. In addition, we show that mothers allocate, on average, 44% of their net total expenditures to children. Finally, by comparing our findings to those derived from other studies using children's expense data, our model provides relatively consistent predictions regarding the cost of children
Convention citoyenne sur la fin de vie (France, 2022-2023). Volume 1 : Analyse de la représentativité de la Convention et comparaison des données de l’équipe de recherche avec des données d’enquêtes nationales
No full textLa Convention citoyenne sur la fin de vie (CCFV) (2022-2023) est le deuxième exercice de démocratie délibérative d'envergure à avoir eu lieu en France, après la Convention citoyenne pour le climat (2019-2020). Au cours de la CCFV, des citoyennes et citoyens (essentiellement tirés au sort) ont travaillé au Cese pendant 27 jours, répartis sur neuf week-ends, pour répondre à la question suivante posée par la Première ministre : « Le cadre d'accompagnement de la fin de vie est-il adapté aux différentes situations rencontrées ou d'éventuels changements devraient-ils être introduits ? ». Au cours de la CCFV, les chercheuses et chercheurs, d'un côté, et les animatrices et animateurs, d'un autre, ont administré des questionnaires auprès des conventionnelles et conventionnels.Le présent rapport se compose de deux volumes. Le volume 1 (Apouey, Pénigaud et Santoro, 2025) compare les caractéristiques sociodémographiques des membres de la CCFV avec celles de la population française, ce qui nous conduit à montrer que la CCFV n'était pas vraiment représentative de la population générale. En effet, nous observons à la CCFV une sur-représentation des catégories sociales favorisées et des catégories moyennes (personnes les plus diplômées, cadres, professions intermédiaires) et une sous-représentation des catégories sociales défavorisées. De plus, les habitantes et habitants des communes appartenant à un grand pôle étaient sur-représentés à la CCFV. La représentativité de la CCFV en termes de sexe, d'âge et de région est quant à elle bien respectée. Le volume 1 décrit ensuite le protocole d'observation du déroulement de la CCFV et le processus de passation des questionnaires par l'équipe de recherche. Finalement, nous comparons certaines des données tirées des questionnaires de l'équipe de recherche avec des données d'enquêtes nationales.Le volume 2 (Apouey, Pénigaud, Santoro et al., 2025) rend publics les questionnaires administrés par les équipes de recherche et d'animation et l'ensemble des statistiques descriptives des données (quantitatives) ainsi collectées
Who will work on Sunday? The winners and losers of Sunday laws relaxation
No full textInternational audienceIn 2016, a law authorized Sunday working in the retail sector in some thirty French areas. We show that the reform did not coincide with any significant increase in retail trade employment in target areas. However, the increase in the number of days shops are open has led employers to favor employees who are sufficiently experienced to manage a store independently. There has been a significant drop in the employment share of less experienced workers, as well as a sharp decline in the share of single parents, for whom it is difficult to reconcile family responsibilities and Sunday work
Endogenous barriers to learning
No full textInternational audienceBuilding on the idea that lack of experience is a source of errors but that experience should reduce them, we model agents' behavior using a stochastic choice model (logit quantal response), leaving endogenous the accuracy of their choices. In some games, higher accuracy leads to unstable logit-response dynamics. Starting from the lowest possible accuracy, we define the barrier to learning as the maximum accuracy which keeps the logit-response dynamic stable (for all lower accuracies). This defines a limit quantal response equilibrium. We apply the concept to centipede, travelers' dilemma, and 11-20 money-request games and to first-price and all-pay auctions, and discuss the role of strategy restrictions in reducing or amplifying barriers to learning