HAL Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques
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Sharing Model Uncertainty
No full textThis paper examines efficient allocations in economies where consumers exhibit heterogeneous smooth ambiguity preferences and face model uncertainty with a common set of identifiable models. Aggregate endowment is ambiguous. We characterize economies where the representative consumer is of the smooth ambiguity type and derive efficient sharing rules. Heterogeneous ambiguity aversion leads to sharing rules that systematically differ from those in vNM-economies. The representative consumer’s ambiguity aversion differs from that of the typical consumer; this leads to more compelling asset-pricing predictions. We focus on point-identified models but show that our insights extend to partially-identified models
Free Trade Agreements and the movement of business people
No full textInternational audienceUsing provisions to ease the movement of business visitors in trade agreements, we show that removing barriers to the movement of business people promotes trade. We document the increasing complexity of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and develop an algorithm that combines machine learning and text analysis techniques to examine the content of FTAs. We use the algorithm to determine which FTAs include provisions to facilitate the movement of business people and whether these are included in dispute settlement mechanisms. We show that provisions facilitating business travel are effective in promoting them and eventually increase bilateral trade flows. The paper provides (indirect) evidence of the role of face-to-face interaction on aggregate bilateral trade flows
The Making of Civic Virtues: A School-Based Experiment in Three Countries
No full textInternational audienceThis paper shows that schools can foster the transmission of civic virtues by helping students to develop concrete, democratically chosen, collective projects. We draw on a RCT implemented in 200 middle schools in three countries. The program leads students to conduct citizenship projects in their communities under the supervision of teachers trained in the intervention. The intervention caused a decline in absenteeism and disciplinary sanctions at school, alongside improved academic achievement. It also led students to diversify their friendship network. The program has stronger effects when implemented by teachers who are initially more involved in the life of the school
Machine learning in the prediction of human wellbeing
No full textInternational audienceSubjective wellbeing data are increasingly used across the social sciences. Yet, despite the widespread use of such data, the predictive power of approaches commonly used to model wellbeing is only limited. In response, we here use tree-based Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to provide a better understanding of respondents’ self-reported wellbeing. We analyse representative samples of more than one million respondents from Germany, the UK, and the United States, using data from 2010 to 2018. We make three contributions. First, we show that ML algorithms can indeed yield better predictive performance than standard approaches, and establish an upper bound on the predictability of wellbeing scores with survey data. Second, we use ML to identify the key drivers of evaluative wellbeing. We show that the variables emphasised in the earlier intuition- and theory-based literature also appear in ML analyses. Third, we illustrate how ML can be used to make a judgement about functional forms, including the existence of satiation points in the effects of income and the U-shaped relationship between age and wellbeing
Efficacité des politiques éducatives : sources et hypothèses de calcul
No full textCe Focus présente les hypothèses et paramètres qui sous-tendent le calcul des indices d’efficacité des dépenses publiques (EDP) appliqués aux politiques éducatives analysées dans la Note du CAE n° 84 « Éducation: comment mieux orienter la dépense publique ». L’EDP, ou Marginal Value of Public Fundsen anglais, mesure le bénéfice social généré pour chaque euro net investi par l’État. Cette méthode permet d’évaluer de manière homogène et rigoureuse une grande diversité de politiques publiques, en intégrant les effets différés sur les trajectoires individuelles, les retours fiscaux et les économies budgétaires potentielles. Le présent document explicite l’ensemble des hypothèses empiriques, des paramètres économiques et des choix méthodologiques mobilisés pour construire ces indicateurs. Il vise à garantir la transparence de l’exercice d’évaluation, à éclairer l’interprétation des résultats et à favoriser l’appropriation de l’outil par les décideurs, les chercheurs et le grand public
Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Conflict
No full textThis paper examines how climate change and natural resource dynamics contribute to conflict, with a focus on the implications of the green transition. It reviews empirical evidence showing that extreme weather events-such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves-are linked to increased violence, particularly through economic disruptions, reduced agricultural productivity, and displacement. The analysis also explores the mechanisms through which climate shocks influence conflict, including opportunity costs, resource competition, and behavioral responses to environmental stress. The discussion then turns to the role of natural resource exploitation, especially in the context of rising demand for minerals essential to low-carbon technologies. The paper highlights how resource price and availability shocks can trigger conflict, often depending on the type of resource, extraction method, and local governance. It also addresses the overlap between climate-and resource-driven conflict risks, emphasizing that their interaction may amplify instability. Throughout, the paper identifies open research questions related to prediction, the effects of long-run environmental changes, and the design of policy responses. These include insurance schemes, climate adaptation strategies, infrastructure investment, and regulatory frameworks for resource governance. The findings point to the need for research that integrates climate and conflict dynamics, with the goal of informing policies that can mitigate the risks associated with environmental change and resource pressures
Small amendment arguments: how they work and what they do and do not show
No full textInternational audienceThe small improvement argument has been said to establish that the standard weak preference or value relation can be incomplete. We first show that the argument is one of three possible ‘small amendment arguments’, each of which would yield the same conclusion. Generalizing the analysis thus, we subsequently present a strong and a weak version of small amendment arguments and derive the exact rationality conditions under which they reveal incompleteness. The results show that the arguments (in any of their variants) need not reveal a problem for the possibility of rational choice. In fact, it can be argued that they only reveal such a problem if the underlying relation is complete rather than incomplete
Political Brinkmanship and Compromise
No full textWe study how do-or-die threats ending negotiations affect gridlock and welfare when twoopposing parties bargain. Failure to agree on a deal in any period implies a continuation of thenegotiation. However, under brinkmanship, agreement failure in any period may precipitate a crisis with a small chance. In equilibrium, such brinkmanship threats improve the probability of an agreement, but also increase the risk of crisis. Brinkmanship reduces welfare when one might think it is most needed: severe gridlock. In this case, despite this global welfare loss, a party has incentives to use brinkmanship strategically to obtain a favorable bargaining positio